I agree that Maye is a better prospect today, but I don't think it's such a big gap that I would disregard the reality that situation plays in developing QBs.mild wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2024 6:56 pmIn the same way that Brock Purdy put up better numbers than Justin Herbert last year: I would still take Herbert in a startup right now.Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2024 5:00 pm It won't shock me if McCarthy puts up better numbers. Maye is in an unproven situation with bottom-tier playmakers.
Minnesota is returning key starters on the offensive line, two very good route runners, a very good TE, and one of the better OC's in the NFL. They have a lot of continuity and McCarthy is not going to be asked to be a hero. He's just going to make the right read and distribute to the open man. It feels very San Francisco-esque on offense.
I view JJM vs. Maye the same way.
Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
-
- GOAT
- Posts: 14447
- Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
For sure. And that's why we're even having the debate, because their ADP's are so similar now compared to 4 months ago: the talent gap has already been discounted by the situation. It's built into the price.Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2024 7:38 pmI agree that Maye is a better prospect today, but I don't think it's such a big gap that I would disregard the reality that situation plays in developing QBs.
But you said it right there: Maye's the better prospect right now, and the whole NFL thought so too.
I am in the habit of taking the best prospect when I can. I'd rather gamble that the situation means less than the talent gap.
- wickerkat1212
- Legend
- Posts: 6315
- Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:23 am
- Contact:
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
Anyone think Sinnott is going to have an impact this year? I like him a LOT after Bowers, and think he may be one of the only rookie TEs to start right away. He only has an aging Ertz in front of him. Outside of Bowers, maybe Sanders has a chance to start in CAR with only Tremble in front of him? Theo Johnson in NYG I like a lot IF Waller retires, but he's still the TE4 right now. And I know most rookie TEs take a few years to get going.
D3:
QB—Allen, JJM RB—Gibbs, Kamara, Jacobs, LLOYD, Zamir, Edwards, Ford, Warren, McLaughlin WR—MHJ, Lamb, Olave, DJM, Shaheed, RICE, VJefferson TE—Engram, Muth, Washington, Kraft, THEO PK—Prater DEF—BAL
D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC, Hall RB—Bijan, Kamara, Conner, BENSON, Gainwell, Gainwell, Foreman, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin WR—Jefferson, Hill, Adams, Allen, POLK, CORLEY, COWING, Tillman, Woods TE—Kelce, Kmet, TJOHNSON, Conklin PK—Butker DEF—PIT
Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield, RATTLER RB—Bijan, Kamara, Allgeier, Mostert, BRob, ESTIME WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, MBrown, Lockett, Myers, COWING, MWASHINGTON TE—Kmet, Kraft, SANDERS, Conklin, Hurst PK—Elliott DEF—PHI
Superflex 2:
QB: MAYE, Goff, Cousins, PENIX RB: Bijan, BRob, Zamir, Allgeier, McLaughlin, Hull WR: HARRISON, DJM, Higgins, JSN, BTHOMAS, Downs, RMoore, Atwell, COWING, Reynolds TE: Ferguson, Kraft, Hurst, WILEY, Trautman, Tremble, Dissly, Reiman
QB—Allen, JJM RB—Gibbs, Kamara, Jacobs, LLOYD, Zamir, Edwards, Ford, Warren, McLaughlin WR—MHJ, Lamb, Olave, DJM, Shaheed, RICE, VJefferson TE—Engram, Muth, Washington, Kraft, THEO PK—Prater DEF—BAL
D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC, Hall RB—Bijan, Kamara, Conner, BENSON, Gainwell, Gainwell, Foreman, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin WR—Jefferson, Hill, Adams, Allen, POLK, CORLEY, COWING, Tillman, Woods TE—Kelce, Kmet, TJOHNSON, Conklin PK—Butker DEF—PIT
Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield, RATTLER RB—Bijan, Kamara, Allgeier, Mostert, BRob, ESTIME WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, MBrown, Lockett, Myers, COWING, MWASHINGTON TE—Kmet, Kraft, SANDERS, Conklin, Hurst PK—Elliott DEF—PHI
Superflex 2:
QB: MAYE, Goff, Cousins, PENIX RB: Bijan, BRob, Zamir, Allgeier, McLaughlin, Hull WR: HARRISON, DJM, Higgins, JSN, BTHOMAS, Downs, RMoore, Atwell, COWING, Reynolds TE: Ferguson, Kraft, Hurst, WILEY, Trautman, Tremble, Dissly, Reiman
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
It's a fair point. But I can see where people feel burned by JSN and BY. Maye and Odunze could have weak rookie years. In the old days this didn't matter much . . .mild wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2024 7:43 pmFor sure. And that's why we're even having the debate, because their ADP's are so similar now compared to 4 months ago: the talent gap has already been discounted by the situation. It's built into the price.Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2024 7:38 pmI agree that Maye is a better prospect today, but I don't think it's such a big gap that I would disregard the reality that situation plays in developing QBs.
But you said it right there: Maye's the better prospect right now, and the whole NFL thought so too.
I am in the habit of taking the best prospect when I can. I'd rather gamble that the situation means less than the talent gap.
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
Putting on my fire suit while I type this - but the more I think about it, I'm contemplating factoring in situation more than I have in the past. Practically what that would mean in SF:
JJM > Maye or Odunze
Brooks > Bowers
McConkey at ~1.10 and over BTJ
Out on Penix even at a discount
JJM > Maye or Odunze
Brooks > Bowers
McConkey at ~1.10 and over BTJ
Out on Penix even at a discount
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
I'm fine with factoring in situation more, but I don't see how that equates to moving Brooks over Bowers. Sure if you want RB and it's not TEP, go for it. But situation isn't the deciding factor there.tstafford wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 7:33 am Putting on my fire suit while I type this - but the more I think about it, I'm contemplating factoring in situation more than I have in the past. Practically what that would mean in SF:
JJM > Maye or Odunze
Brooks > Bowers
McConkey at ~1.10 and over BTJ
Out on Penix even at a discount
I think JJM over Odunze is a step too far as well.
Penix is someone who I like, but going to have to be the right team to take him late 1st. For example I have a team with 3 solid QBs, I'm going to lean WR or RB there. But if I had a team with 1 solid QB and 1 aging one, Penix would be a strong consideration
-
- GOAT
- Posts: 14447
- Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
I don't think there's anything wrong with using situation as a tiebreaker or to factor it in noticeably with QBs.tstafford wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 7:33 am Putting on my fire suit while I type this - but the more I think about it, I'm contemplating factoring in situation more than I have in the past. Practically what that would mean in SF:
JJM > Maye or Odunze
Brooks > Bowers
McConkey at ~1.10 and over BTJ
Out on Penix even at a discount
I would definitely consider McCarthy over Maye.
Penix is in a great situation, but I can't justify using a 1st on him in any format just because of the presumed two year wait.
-
- Player of the Year
- Posts: 2383
- Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 3:02 pm
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
Was just about to type something similar.Jigga94 wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 8:24 amI'm fine with factoring in situation more, but I don't see how that equates to moving Brooks over Bowers. Sure if you want RB and it's not TEP, go for it. But situation isn't the deciding factor there.tstafford wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 7:33 am Putting on my fire suit while I type this - but the more I think about it, I'm contemplating factoring in situation more than I have in the past. Practically what that would mean in SF:
JJM > Maye or Odunze
Brooks > Bowers
McConkey at ~1.10 and over BTJ
Out on Penix even at a discount
I think JJM over Odunze is a step too far as well.
Penix is someone who I like, but going to have to be the right team to take him late 1st. For example I have a team with 3 solid QBs, I'm going to lean WR or RB there. But if I had a team with 1 solid QB and 1 aging one, Penix would be a strong consideration
JJM > Odunze and Brooks > Bowers are both a bridge too far for me. The rest make sense.
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
Would you consider McCarthy over Odunze? (Or like Jigga is that going too far?) I'm concerned Odunze loses value over the next 12 months just like JSN. I know he's a better prospect and all that, but still.Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 8:28 amI don't think there's anything wrong with using situation as a tiebreaker or to factor it in noticeably with QBs.tstafford wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 7:33 am Putting on my fire suit while I type this - but the more I think about it, I'm contemplating factoring in situation more than I have in the past. Practically what that would mean in SF:
JJM > Maye or Odunze
Brooks > Bowers
McConkey at ~1.10 and over BTJ
Out on Penix even at a discount
I would definitely consider McCarthy over Maye.
Penix is in a great situation, but I can't justify using a 1st on him in any format just because of the presumed two year wait.
-
- GOAT
- Posts: 14447
- Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
I would take Odunze over McCarthy. He has a great combination of talent and situation. He might struggle with target share initially, but long-term, that's Williams guy and he lobbied for him as well.tstafford wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 8:36 amWould you consider McCarthy over Odunze? (Or like Jigga is that going too far?) I'm concerned Odunze loses value over the next 12 months just like JSN. I know he's a better prospect and all that, but still.Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 8:28 amI don't think there's anything wrong with using situation as a tiebreaker or to factor it in noticeably with QBs.tstafford wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 7:33 am Putting on my fire suit while I type this - but the more I think about it, I'm contemplating factoring in situation more than I have in the past. Practically what that would mean in SF:
JJM > Maye or Odunze
Brooks > Bowers
McConkey at ~1.10 and over BTJ
Out on Penix even at a discount
I would definitely consider McCarthy over Maye.
Penix is in a great situation, but I can't justify using a 1st on him in any format just because of the presumed two year wait.
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
I get that Odunze might lose value after year 1. But that's not how I view these things. I wouldn't draft his talent and then go sell low after he was playing behind 2 all pros.
I get it though if you play in a shortsighted league. Stay away from Odunze then go try to steal him next offseason from an impatient owner
I get it though if you play in a shortsighted league. Stay away from Odunze then go try to steal him next offseason from an impatient owner
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
Agreed on both points. JSN looms large. A lot of folks are more or less out on him. It feels reactionary and not isolated. Same thing on BY. I disliked QJ from the start so that one feels different.Jigga94 wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 8:44 am I get that Odunze might lose value after year 1. But that's not how I view these things. I wouldn't draft his talent and then go sell low after he was playing behind 2 all pros.
I get it though if you play in a shortsighted league. Stay away from Odunze then go try to steal him next offseason from an impatient owner
Appreciate the feedback from both of you guys.
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
I hear you on JSN. But he's also not the level of prospect Odunze is. Now if you were talking about Pearsall, he's also stuck behind 2 very good WR and I could see his value dropping in a year if they do not move one. But I also really like his talent (similar to JSN) and wouldn't draft him and then sell after 1 year when the situation was keeping him from producing.tstafford wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 9:51 amAgreed on both points. JSN looms large. A lot of folks are more or less out on him. It feels reactionary and not isolated. Same thing on BY. I disliked QJ from the start so that one feels different.Jigga94 wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 8:44 am I get that Odunze might lose value after year 1. But that's not how I view these things. I wouldn't draft his talent and then go sell low after he was playing behind 2 all pros.
I get it though if you play in a shortsighted league. Stay away from Odunze then go try to steal him next offseason from an impatient owner
Appreciate the feedback from both of you guys.
With QJ, I never believed in the talent and here we are with him being dropped heavily in the communities eyes.
-
- GOAT
- Posts: 14447
- Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
You know how it's going to go.Jigga94 wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 10:19 amI hear you on JSN. But he's also not the level of prospect Odunze is. Now if you were talking about Pearsall, he's also stuck behind 2 very good WR and I could see his value dropping in a year if they do not move one. But I also really like his talent (similar to JSN) and wouldn't draft him and then sell after 1 year when the situation was keeping him from producing.tstafford wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 9:51 amAgreed on both points. JSN looms large. A lot of folks are more or less out on him. It feels reactionary and not isolated. Same thing on BY. I disliked QJ from the start so that one feels different.Jigga94 wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 8:44 am I get that Odunze might lose value after year 1. But that's not how I view these things. I wouldn't draft his talent and then go sell low after he was playing behind 2 all pros.
I get it though if you play in a shortsighted league. Stay away from Odunze then go try to steal him next offseason from an impatient owner
Appreciate the feedback from both of you guys.
With QJ, I never believed in the talent and here we are with him being dropped heavily in the communities eyes.
Everyone: It's probably unfair to expect Odunze or Pearsall to beat out two really good WRs as rookies.
Everyone: Agreed
*Midseason*
Everyone: Why haven't Odunze and Pearsall beat out two really good WRs as rookies? Does this mean they suck?
- wickerkat1212
- Legend
- Posts: 6315
- Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:23 am
- Contact:
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
LOL. I'm giving JSN three years to show me what he is. I'm holding and not a bit worried yet. I'm also all-in on those three WRs. I'll probably only have two shares of Harrison, no Nabers or Odunze (sadly) but I think all three will go on to be excellent WRs.
D3:
QB—Allen, JJM RB—Gibbs, Kamara, Jacobs, LLOYD, Zamir, Edwards, Ford, Warren, McLaughlin WR—MHJ, Lamb, Olave, DJM, Shaheed, RICE, VJefferson TE—Engram, Muth, Washington, Kraft, THEO PK—Prater DEF—BAL
D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC, Hall RB—Bijan, Kamara, Conner, BENSON, Gainwell, Gainwell, Foreman, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin WR—Jefferson, Hill, Adams, Allen, POLK, CORLEY, COWING, Tillman, Woods TE—Kelce, Kmet, TJOHNSON, Conklin PK—Butker DEF—PIT
Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield, RATTLER RB—Bijan, Kamara, Allgeier, Mostert, BRob, ESTIME WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, MBrown, Lockett, Myers, COWING, MWASHINGTON TE—Kmet, Kraft, SANDERS, Conklin, Hurst PK—Elliott DEF—PHI
Superflex 2:
QB: MAYE, Goff, Cousins, PENIX RB: Bijan, BRob, Zamir, Allgeier, McLaughlin, Hull WR: HARRISON, DJM, Higgins, JSN, BTHOMAS, Downs, RMoore, Atwell, COWING, Reynolds TE: Ferguson, Kraft, Hurst, WILEY, Trautman, Tremble, Dissly, Reiman
QB—Allen, JJM RB—Gibbs, Kamara, Jacobs, LLOYD, Zamir, Edwards, Ford, Warren, McLaughlin WR—MHJ, Lamb, Olave, DJM, Shaheed, RICE, VJefferson TE—Engram, Muth, Washington, Kraft, THEO PK—Prater DEF—BAL
D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC, Hall RB—Bijan, Kamara, Conner, BENSON, Gainwell, Gainwell, Foreman, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin WR—Jefferson, Hill, Adams, Allen, POLK, CORLEY, COWING, Tillman, Woods TE—Kelce, Kmet, TJOHNSON, Conklin PK—Butker DEF—PIT
Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield, RATTLER RB—Bijan, Kamara, Allgeier, Mostert, BRob, ESTIME WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, MBrown, Lockett, Myers, COWING, MWASHINGTON TE—Kmet, Kraft, SANDERS, Conklin, Hurst PK—Elliott DEF—PHI
Superflex 2:
QB: MAYE, Goff, Cousins, PENIX RB: Bijan, BRob, Zamir, Allgeier, McLaughlin, Hull WR: HARRISON, DJM, Higgins, JSN, BTHOMAS, Downs, RMoore, Atwell, COWING, Reynolds TE: Ferguson, Kraft, Hurst, WILEY, Trautman, Tremble, Dissly, Reiman
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 3 guests