Bryce Young

[Cameron Giles]

I don't necessarily disagree ... but which 2023 qb-needy draft team do you think was a team that would have chosen a different QB at 1.01 over Young?

It seems like the hype around Bryce had grown to a level where it was all but certain that he would be the 1.01 pick. Sort of like with CW in 2024, or TLaw in 2021.

In hindsight, I can easily say Stroud (or even Richardson) should have been drafted before Young. But which qb-needy NFL team in 2023 felt the same? Leading up to the 2023 draft, did such a beast exist?

Jay Glazer is as plugged in as anyone and said this:

Obviously, 1—it’s Bryce Young. That’s where they’re going,” he said. “I think that people were trying to smokescreen right now that they’re not. There’s a big drop-off for everybody. Everybody’s bored, it was Bryce Young first, then even though he’s got a smaller frame.

“But it’s interesting because Houston at 2—that’s the guy they wanted. They weren’t able to move up for him. Obviously, that’s who Carolina wanted. That’s who the Raiders wanted.”

It doesn't mean Young goes #1 regardless of who's there, but calling it a reach doesn't lineup with how teams felt. His ceiling was 1 and his floor was 2.

[Anteaters]

I don't necessarily disagree ... but which 2023 qb-needy draft team do you think was a team that would have chosen a different QB at 1.01 over Young?

It seems like the hype around Bryce had grown to a level where it was all but certain that he would be the 1.01 pick. Sort of like with CW in 2024, or TLaw in 2021.

In hindsight, I can easily say Stroud (or even Richardson) should have been drafted before Young. But which qb-needy NFL team in 2023 felt the same? Leading up to the 2023 draft, did such a beast exist?

Jay Glazer is as plugged in as anyone and said this:

Obviously, 1—it’s Bryce Young. That’s where they’re going,” he said. “I think that people were trying to smokescreen right now that they’re not. There’s a big drop-off for everybody. Everybody’s bored, it was Bryce Young first, then even though he’s got a smaller frame.

“But it’s interesting because Houston at 2—that’s the guy they wanted. They weren’t able to move up for him. Obviously, that’s who Carolina wanted. That’s who the Raiders wanted.”

It doesn't mean Young goes #1 regardless of who's there, but calling it a reach doesn't lineup with how teams felt. His ceiling was 1 and his floor was 2.

That's how it appeared to me. There were people saying "his size is a concern", but with the next breath I recall them all saying "he's still the best choice a #1."

No one in an NFL front office (of a qb-needy team) was so worried about his size (or anything else about him) to drop Young out of the 1.01.

And I don't recall any notable analysts screaming loudly, "IT'S A TRAP!!!"

[Cameron Giles]

That's how it appeared to me. There were people saying "his size is a concern", but with the next breath I recall them all saying "he's still the best choice a #1."

No one in an NFL front office (of a qb-needy team) was so worried about his size (or anything else about him) to drop Young out of the 1.01.

And I don't recall any notable analysts screaming loudly, "IT'S A TRAP!!!"

There's just a big difference between "I'm not high on Bryce Young" and "he's a reach at 1". Houston 99% drafts Young at 2 if the Panthers take Stroud. If they don't? A team is trading up at 3 or the Colts are drafting him at 4. A player like that is not a reach at 1.

NFL teams do get it wrong, but if Young's height and weight were going to be the primary and secondary reasons that he wouldn't pan out in the NFL, he wouldn't have been on 1st round boards for as long as he was predraft. I don't think Carolina made a pick that many teams in the NFL wouldn't have done in the same boat. We can criticize what they gave up and how they tried developing him, but that's a completely different conversation.

[Anteaters]

I don't think Carolina made a pick that most of the teams in the NFL wouldn't have done in the same boat. We can criticize what they gave up and how they tried developing him, but that's a completely different conversation.

I'll never pass up the chance to piss on Tepper and his clueless cronies, but choosing Young wasn't his mistake here. I can't even say trading up was a mistake, because if the consensus #1 QB had been anyone other than Young it might have been a different story. If Carolina traded up for TLaw or Burrow or Kyler, no one would look back and criticize the price. The price only looks bad because Young did not pan out.

[murphysxm]

The major knock on Young at the time was his Height. He was easily going top 2. The Panthers look to have chosen wrong and the Texans are elated but the selection, especially at the time was not a reach.

No need to rewrite history after a season. He was on a terrible team with worse coaching. There are concerns at this point so we will see if he can recover after that debacle of the season but his height would rank near the bottom of issues he dealt with last season.

This, everything about this.

[FantasyFreak]

That doesn't make any sense. Young was the #1 HS QB recruit in his class. It's not like he was some mid-level talent who ended up in a great situation. Hell, his last year at Bama, the best skill position talent he had was a RB. Young did exactly what people expected him to do in college and it would've happened at any competent P5 school.

Young/Stroud was a legitimate debate and factually, there were multiple teams looking to move up to draft Young at 1, including the Texans. The Panthers didn't reach. If he didn't go 1, he was going 2. Their mistake was the assets they gave up and the organizational plan they had to develop him.

Whoever took him at 1, it would have been a reach, in my books. It happened to be Carolina. There was nothing about his game worthy of the top pick. He was an undersized QB with an average arm. There's nothing about him that gives him elite QB upside. Never was. Teams constantly reach at QB. He wasn't worth the top pick in a draft. Stroud was debatable, but had the tools worthy of taking the shot. Young simply didn't have the tools fas an NFL player for the 1.01, IMO.

I don't necessarily disagree ... but which 2023 qb-needy draft team do you think was a team that would have chosen a different QB at 1.01 over Young?

It seems like the hype around Bryce had grown to a level where it was all but certain that he would be the 1.01 pick. Sort of like with CW in 2024, or TLaw in 2021.

In hindsight, I can easily say Stroud (or even Richardson) should have been drafted before Young. But which qb-needy NFL team in 2023 felt the same? Leading up to the 2023 draft, did such a beast exist?

I don't know about NFL teams, but there were definitely analysts that had Stroud ahead of Young. I personally didn't think they should have taken Young, but I guess my issue is, trading all those assets to get up to 1, for an outlier, did way more harm than just sitting at 8, keeping DJM, and their other picks, which included a likely early first this year, if they had stuck with Darnold etc. They would have been in a much better position with a much deeper QB class this season, and wouldn't have had to set their franchise back years.

Most NFL teams I'd garner are like Devy players on overdrive, they know the classes. So they really didn't evaluate Young properly, if they thought he was worth all that. I also think there was a lot of smoke about Tepper wanting Young, so I really don't know how much it was his call vs a consensus in that building.

There were some conflicting reports on that whole dynamic.

If they had simply had the 1.01, not as big a miss. The trade up was egregious though, for a player who's an outlier to succeed. Not a good bet to make.

[MacDaddy123]

I don't think Carolina made a pick that most of the teams in the NFL wouldn't have done in the same boat. We can criticize what they gave up and how they tried developing him, but that's a completely different conversation.

I'll never pass up the chance to piss on Tepper and his clueless cronies, but choosing Young wasn't his mistake here. I can't even say trading up was a mistake, because if the consensus #1 QB had been anyone other than Young it might have been a different story. If Carolina traded up for TLaw or Burrow or Kyler, no one would look back and criticize the price. The price only looks bad because Young did not pan out.

I disagree. I thought the price of the trade was egregious the moment I saw it, well before the draft.
Panthers paid up like there was a top QB prospect in the 2023 draft class.
Like Burrow, TLaw, or even Caleb was sitting there waiting to be picked.

I realize that the 2023 QB class looked better after teams got past the 2022 QB class, but we all knew that the 24 QB class would be stronger, even before the 2023 draft.

Just because you over-pay for a Toyota does not make the Toyota a Mercedes.
Panthers paid Mercedes prices for a Toyota draft class of QB prospects.

Had they paid that for the 1.01 in 2024, I would not have batted an eye.

[FantasyFreak]

I don't think Carolina made a pick that most of the teams in the NFL wouldn't have done in the same boat. We can criticize what they gave up and how they tried developing him, but that's a completely different conversation.

I'll never pass up the chance to piss on Tepper and his clueless cronies, but choosing Young wasn't his mistake here. I can't even say trading up was a mistake, because if the consensus #1 QB had been anyone other than Young it might have been a different story. If Carolina traded up for TLaw or Burrow or Kyler, no one would look back and criticize the price. The price only looks bad because Young did not pan out.

I disagree. I thought the price of the trade was egregious the moment I saw it, well before the draft.
Panthers paid up like there was a top QB prospect in the 2023 draft class.
Like Burrow, TLaw, or even Caleb was sitting there waiting to be picked.

I realize that the 2023 QB class looked better after teams got past the 2022 QB class, but we all knew that the 24 QB class would be stronger, even before the 2023 draft.

Just because you over-pay for a Toyota does not make the Toyota a Mercedes.
Panthers paid Mercedes prices for a Toyota draft class of QB prospects.

Had they paid that for the 1.01 in 2024, I would not have batted an eye.

Yep. I was adding that into my comment when you must had typed this. It's the price that's egregious, for an outlier player. If they had the 1.01, it's still a miss, but the trade cost set them back years.

[Cameron Giles]

I disagree. I thought the price of the trade was egregious the moment I saw it, well before the draft.
Panthers paid up like there was a top QB prospect in the 2023 draft class.
Like Burrow, TLaw, or even Caleb was sitting there waiting to be picked.

I realize that the 2023 QB class looked better after teams got past the 2022 QB class, but we all knew that the 24 QB class would be stronger, even before the 2023 draft.

Just because you over-pay for a Toyota does not make the Toyota a Mercedes.
Panthers paid Mercedes prices for a Toyota draft class of QB prospects.

Had they paid that for the 1.01 in 2024, I would not have batted an eye.

If the Bears were moving the 2024 1.01, they would have laughed at the offer they took for the 2023 1.01.

I get you're exaggerating, but Young and Stroud were not considered Toyota-level QB prospects. It wasn't the Jared Goff and Carson Wentz draft. Sure, neither of them were considered all-time great prospects like Luck, Lawrence or someone along those lines. But, they were about as close as you could get without being all-time great.

This is always going to be a QB-driven league, and you can't afford to keep turning down chance after chance to get one like the Panthers had been doing. Carolina had been punting on drafting a QB for years and it had finally caught up to them:

2022 - Ikem Ekonwu (6th overall)
2021 - Jaycee Horn (8th overall)
2020 - Derrick Brown (7th overall)

At some point, you have to stick your neck out. It wasn't as simple as "well, just be bad for another year and wait for 2024".

I think Anteaters is right. Even though they gave up a ton, it's difficult to put a price on QB security in the NFL. Sometimes it will work, and sometimes it won't. But when it does work, there's no way you would you trade that for what you gave up initially. The buyer has no leverage in these situations and it almost always ends with them getting fleeced before the pick is announced.

[FantasyFreak]

I disagree. I thought the price of the trade was egregious the moment I saw it, well before the draft.
Panthers paid up like there was a top QB prospect in the 2023 draft class.
Like Burrow, TLaw, or even Caleb was sitting there waiting to be picked.

I realize that the 2023 QB class looked better after teams got past the 2022 QB class, but we all knew that the 24 QB class would be stronger, even before the 2023 draft.

Just because you over-pay for a Toyota does not make the Toyota a Mercedes.
Panthers paid Mercedes prices for a Toyota draft class of QB prospects.

Had they paid that for the 1.01 in 2024, I would not have batted an eye.

If the Bears were moving the 2024 1.01, they would have laughed at the offer they took for the 2023 1.01.

I get you're exaggerating, but Young and Stroud were not considered Toyota-level QB prospects. It wasn't the Jared Goff and Carson Wentz draft. Sure, neither of them were considered all-time great prospects like Luck, Lawrence or someone along those lines. But, they were about as close as you could get without being all-time great.

This is always going to be a QB-driven league, and you can't afford to keep turning down chance after chance to get one like the Panthers had been doing. Carolina had been punting on drafting a QB for years and it had finally caught up to them:

2022 - Ikem Ekonwu (6th overall)
2021 - Jaycee Horn (8th overall)
2020 - Derrick Brown (7th overall)

At some point, you have to stick your neck out. It wasn't as simple as "well, just be bad for another year and wait for 2024".

I think Anteaters is right. Even though they gave up a ton, it's difficult to put a price on QB security in the NFL. Sometimes it will work, and sometimes it won't. But when it does work, there's no way you would you trade that for what you gave up initially. The buyer has no leverage in these situations and it almost always ends with them getting fleeced before the pick is announced.

That would have been the better idea though, at that point, knowing the QB class for 2024, vs doing what they did. Passing on QB' for 3 years when they were in range to take one doesn't mean you go on in, in a down year for a QB class, IMO.

Bryce was an outlier. He's a 5f10 QB without the dual threat that Kyler had. It was just a bad move, at the time, and now. I can't get my head around it, I never thought it was the right move, for that player. You just don't spend that on an outlier. It's bad process.

Also, are you sure the Bears would have the 2024 1.01, if the Panthers hadn't traded their pick to the Bears? I'm not. It was the Panthers pick after all, the Bears had at 1.01, not their own. Sure, DJM most definitely helped, but I don't think it's a certainty that without him, they would have had the 1.01, and the Panthers, with DJM, wouldn't have been the 1.01 still.

The Panthers, with Darnold, were likely a top 5 pick still, this year, quite easily.

[Anteaters]

Bryce was an outlier. He's a 5f10 QB without the dual threat that Kyler had. It was just a bad move, at the time, and now. I can't get my head around it, I never thought it was the right move, for that player. You just don't spend that on an outlier. It's bad process.

Yes, YOU were the guy who was smart enough to realize that truth before the NFL draft. On the other hand, every QB-needy NFL front office was convinced Bryce Young was the best rookie QB.

I think you two are arguing two points that are both true. FantasyFreak knew before the NFL did that Bryce Young was a bust. The flip side is almost every NFL decision maker decided Bryce was the most talented rookie QB. This isn't a case of Carolina being the dunce in the classroom and making a decision only a dunce would make -- this was a case of most every NFL team thinking Bryce was the best.

to FantasyFreak (and me) for not chasing Bryce in his dynasty drafts.
to Carolina, Houston, and every other NFL team that would have chosen Bryce #1.

[FantasyFreak]

Bryce was an outlier. He's a 5f10 QB without the dual threat that Kyler had. It was just a bad move, at the time, and now. I can't get my head around it, I never thought it was the right move, for that player. You just don't spend that on an outlier. It's bad process.

Yes, YOU were the guy who was smart enough to realize that truth before the NFL draft. On the other hand, every QB-needy NFL front office was convinced Bryce Young was the best rookie QB.

I think you two are arguing two points that are both true. FantasyFreak knew before the NFL did that Bryce Young was a bust. The flip side is almost every NFL decision maker decided Bryce was the most talented rookie QB. This isn't a case of Carolina being the dunce in the classroom and making a decision only a dunce would make -- this was a case of most every NFL team thinking Bryce was the best.

to FantasyFreak (and me) for not chasing Bryce in his dynasty drafts.
to Carolina, Houston, and every other NFL team that would have chosen Bryce #1.

YEP. I've been wrong on players too, but that trade never made sense to me, as soon as it happened. I thought maybe they'd go Stroud, and like I said previously, there were analysts who had Stroud as QB1, and I really don't think we can say 32 teams had Bryce at 1, I think it's disingenuous for anyone claiming to know that (not saying you are), but lets say the majority of teams did. They would have been clearly wrong. Had they made the trade to do it for Stroud, I would have been skeptical still, but I could justify it a lot more due to his skill set/size, he's not an outlier in the way Bryce Young is.

[Cameron Giles]

That would have been the better idea though, at that point, knowing the QB class for 2024, vs doing what they did. Passing on QB' for 3 years when they were in range to take one doesn't mean you go on in, in a down year for a QB class, IMO.

Bryce was an outlier. He's a 5f10 QB without the dual threat that Kyler had. It was just a bad move, at the time, and now. I can't get my head around it, I never thought it was the right move, for that player. You just don't spend that on an outlier. It's bad process.

Also, are you sure the Bears would have the 2024 1.01, if the Panthers hadn't traded their pick to the Bears? I'm not. It was the Panthers pick after all, the Bears had at 1.01, not their own. Sure, DJM most definitely helped, but I don't think it's a certainty that without him, they would have had the 1.01, and the Panthers, with DJM, wouldn't have been the 1.01 still.

The Panthers, with Darnold, were likely a top 5 pick still, this year, quite easily.

It wasn't a down year though. Stroud and Young were considered very good QB prospects. They just weren't considered elite ones. Caleb Williams is the only QB in this class who is considered an elite QB prospect. After him, you could very easily make the case that Stroud and Young are better QB prospects than Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Penix and Nix.

Bryce Young was a 5-star HS QB, who won the Heisman two years later as a 20-year-old in the best conference in football, that's loaded with professional prospects. Was he a size outlier? Yes. Was he really good at football? Yes. I'm not sure why you're acting like the Panthers alone boosted some guy who wouldn't have been on the radar otherwise.

I get that you weren't high on him and you were ready to declare him a bust after Game 1, but as Anteaters is saying, you still have to acknowledge how the NFL overall felt about him. You can't be a reach at 1 if you would've factually gone the next pick to Houston anyway.

Teams study the draft years in advance, so it's reasonable the Panthers concluded:

1. They wouldn't be bad enough to get Caleb Williams coming off a 7 win season.
2. Believed the rest of the projected QBs in 2024 were not better than Young or Stroud. Keep in mind at the time Jayden Daniels was not projected to be drafted as high as he was.

I completely get why the Panthers decided to go for the QB then, rather than wait.

[Cameron Giles]

Bryce was an outlier. He's a 5f10 QB without the dual threat that Kyler had. It was just a bad move, at the time, and now. I can't get my head around it, I never thought it was the right move, for that player. You just don't spend that on an outlier. It's bad process.

Yes, YOU were the guy who was smart enough to realize that truth before the NFL draft. On the other hand, every QB-needy NFL front office was convinced Bryce Young was the best rookie QB.

I think you two are arguing two points that are both true. FantasyFreak knew before the NFL did that Bryce Young was a bust. The flip side is almost every NFL decision maker decided Bryce was the most talented rookie QB. This isn't a case of Carolina being the dunce in the classroom and making a decision only a dunce would make -- this was a case of most every NFL team thinking Bryce was the best.

to FantasyFreak (and me) for not chasing Bryce in his dynasty drafts.
to Carolina, Houston, and every other NFL team that would have chosen Bryce #1.

Exactly.

My guess is that if you surveyed most teams at the time, it would've been about 50/50 with Young and Stroud. The Panthers are a bad organization, but picking Young is not an example of that or bad process. If you read the inside story on their approach to developing him last offseason, that is bad process.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

Teams study the draft years in advance, so it's reasonable the Panthers concluded:

1. They wouldn't be bad enough to get Caleb Williams coming off a 7 win season.
2. Believed the rest of the projected QBs in 2024 were not better than Young or Stroud. Keep in mind at the time Jayden Daniels was not projected to be drafted as high as he was.

I completely get why the Panthers decided to go for the QB then, rather than wait.

Exactly. When the Rams traded up for Goff it wasn't because he was a can't miss prospect. It's because he wasn't rated that highly. Wentz as well. In fact everyone in the media had Winston and Mariota rated much higher than them. Haha, clowns.

Anyway, the Rams were stuck in qb purgatory. Not bad enough to be in a draft position to get a good qb. The year they did it was perfect for them to move up from the mid teens to the #1 spot. It cost a lot but there's no way they could make that move if a qb like luck was entering the draft. They knew Goff's limitations but knew he was good enough to help them win.

When Mcvay found out he couldn't be the qb he wanted to run his offense after the league kind of worked it out he went all out for Stafford, the perfect qb for him.

You gotta pay for a qb if you're desperate.