Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[Cameron Giles]

It won't shock me if McCarthy puts up better numbers. Maye is in an unproven situation with bottom-tier playmakers.

Minnesota is returning key starters on the offensive line, two very good route runners, a very good TE, and one of the better OC's in the NFL. They have a lot of continuity and McCarthy is not going to be asked to be a hero. He's just going to make the right read and distribute to the open man. It feels very San Francisco-esque on offense.

In the same way that Brock Purdy put up better numbers than Justin Herbert last year: I would still take Herbert in a startup right now.

I view JJM vs. Maye the same way.

I agree that Maye is a better prospect today, but I don't think it's such a big gap that I would disregard the reality that situation plays in developing QBs.

[mild]

In the same way that Brock Purdy put up better numbers than Justin Herbert last year: I would still take Herbert in a startup right now.

I view JJM vs. Maye the same way.

I agree that Maye is a better prospect today, but I don't think it's such a big gap that I would disregard the reality that situation plays in developing QBs.

For sure. And that's why we're even having the debate, because their ADP's are so similar now compared to 4 months ago: the talent gap has already been discounted by the situation. It's built into the price.

But you said it right there: Maye's the better prospect right now, and the whole NFL thought so too.

I am in the habit of taking the best prospect when I can. I'd rather gamble that the situation means less than the talent gap.

[wickerkat1212]

Anyone think Sinnott is going to have an impact this year? I like him a LOT after Bowers, and think he may be one of the only rookie TEs to start right away. He only has an aging Ertz in front of him. Outside of Bowers, maybe Sanders has a chance to start in CAR with only Tremble in front of him? Theo Johnson in NYG I like a lot IF Waller retires, but he's still the TE4 right now. And I know most rookie TEs take a few years to get going.

[tstafford]

In the same way that Brock Purdy put up better numbers than Justin Herbert last year: I would still take Herbert in a startup right now.

I view JJM vs. Maye the same way.

I agree that Maye is a better prospect today, but I don't think it's such a big gap that I would disregard the reality that situation plays in developing QBs.

For sure. And that's why we're even having the debate, because their ADP's are so similar now compared to 4 months ago: the talent gap has already been discounted by the situation. It's built into the price.

But you said it right there: Maye's the better prospect right now, and the whole NFL thought so too.

I am in the habit of taking the best prospect when I can. I'd rather gamble that the situation means less than the talent gap.

It's a fair point. But I can see where people feel burned by JSN and BY. Maye and Odunze could have weak rookie years. In the old days this didn't matter much . . .

[tstafford]

Putting on my fire suit while I type this - but the more I think about it, I'm contemplating factoring in situation more than I have in the past. Practically what that would mean in SF:
JJM > Maye or Odunze
Brooks > Bowers
McConkey at ~1.10 and over BTJ
Out on Penix even at a discount

[Jigga94]

Putting on my fire suit while I type this - but the more I think about it, I'm contemplating factoring in situation more than I have in the past. Practically what that would mean in SF:
JJM > Maye or Odunze
Brooks > Bowers
McConkey at ~1.10 and over BTJ
Out on Penix even at a discount

I'm fine with factoring in situation more, but I don't see how that equates to moving Brooks over Bowers. Sure if you want RB and it's not TEP, go for it. But situation isn't the deciding factor there.

I think JJM over Odunze is a step too far as well.

Penix is someone who I like, but going to have to be the right team to take him late 1st. For example I have a team with 3 solid QBs, I'm going to lean WR or RB there. But if I had a team with 1 solid QB and 1 aging one, Penix would be a strong consideration

[Cameron Giles]

Putting on my fire suit while I type this - but the more I think about it, I'm contemplating factoring in situation more than I have in the past. Practically what that would mean in SF:
JJM > Maye or Odunze
Brooks > Bowers
McConkey at ~1.10 and over BTJ
Out on Penix even at a discount

I don't think there's anything wrong with using situation as a tiebreaker or to factor it in noticeably with QBs.

I would definitely consider McCarthy over Maye.

Penix is in a great situation, but I can't justify using a 1st on him in any format just because of the presumed two year wait.

[BabyChark23]

Putting on my fire suit while I type this - but the more I think about it, I'm contemplating factoring in situation more than I have in the past. Practically what that would mean in SF:
JJM > Maye or Odunze
Brooks > Bowers
McConkey at ~1.10 and over BTJ
Out on Penix even at a discount

I'm fine with factoring in situation more, but I don't see how that equates to moving Brooks over Bowers. Sure if you want RB and it's not TEP, go for it. But situation isn't the deciding factor there.

I think JJM over Odunze is a step too far as well.

Penix is someone who I like, but going to have to be the right team to take him late 1st. For example I have a team with 3 solid QBs, I'm going to lean WR or RB there. But if I had a team with 1 solid QB and 1 aging one, Penix would be a strong consideration

Was just about to type something similar.

JJM > Odunze and Brooks > Bowers are both a bridge too far for me. The rest make sense.

[tstafford]

Putting on my fire suit while I type this - but the more I think about it, I'm contemplating factoring in situation more than I have in the past. Practically what that would mean in SF:
JJM > Maye or Odunze
Brooks > Bowers
McConkey at ~1.10 and over BTJ
Out on Penix even at a discount

I don't think there's anything wrong with using situation as a tiebreaker or to factor it in noticeably with QBs.

I would definitely consider McCarthy over Maye.

Penix is in a great situation, but I can't justify using a 1st on him in any format just because of the presumed two year wait.

Would you consider McCarthy over Odunze? (Or like Jigga is that going too far?) I'm concerned Odunze loses value over the next 12 months just like JSN. I know he's a better prospect and all that, but still.

[Cameron Giles]

Putting on my fire suit while I type this - but the more I think about it, I'm contemplating factoring in situation more than I have in the past. Practically what that would mean in SF:
JJM > Maye or Odunze
Brooks > Bowers
McConkey at ~1.10 and over BTJ
Out on Penix even at a discount

I don't think there's anything wrong with using situation as a tiebreaker or to factor it in noticeably with QBs.

I would definitely consider McCarthy over Maye.

Penix is in a great situation, but I can't justify using a 1st on him in any format just because of the presumed two year wait.

Would you consider McCarthy over Odunze? (Or like Jigga is that going too far?) I'm concerned Odunze loses value over the next 12 months just like JSN. I know he's a better prospect and all that, but still.

I would take Odunze over McCarthy. He has a great combination of talent and situation. He might struggle with target share initially, but long-term, that's Williams guy and he lobbied for him as well.

[Jigga94]

I get that Odunze might lose value after year 1. But that's not how I view these things. I wouldn't draft his talent and then go sell low after he was playing behind 2 all pros.

I get it though if you play in a shortsighted league. Stay away from Odunze then go try to steal him next offseason from an impatient owner

[tstafford]

I get that Odunze might lose value after year 1. But that's not how I view these things. I wouldn't draft his talent and then go sell low after he was playing behind 2 all pros.

I get it though if you play in a shortsighted league. Stay away from Odunze then go try to steal him next offseason from an impatient owner

Agreed on both points. JSN looms large. A lot of folks are more or less out on him. It feels reactionary and not isolated. Same thing on BY. I disliked QJ from the start so that one feels different.

Appreciate the feedback from both of you guys.

[Jigga94]

I get that Odunze might lose value after year 1. But that's not how I view these things. I wouldn't draft his talent and then go sell low after he was playing behind 2 all pros.

I get it though if you play in a shortsighted league. Stay away from Odunze then go try to steal him next offseason from an impatient owner

Agreed on both points. JSN looms large. A lot of folks are more or less out on him. It feels reactionary and not isolated. Same thing on BY. I disliked QJ from the start so that one feels different.

Appreciate the feedback from both of you guys.

I hear you on JSN. But he's also not the level of prospect Odunze is. Now if you were talking about Pearsall, he's also stuck behind 2 very good WR and I could see his value dropping in a year if they do not move one. But I also really like his talent (similar to JSN) and wouldn't draft him and then sell after 1 year when the situation was keeping him from producing.

With QJ, I never believed in the talent and here we are with him being dropped heavily in the communities eyes.

[Cameron Giles]

I get that Odunze might lose value after year 1. But that's not how I view these things. I wouldn't draft his talent and then go sell low after he was playing behind 2 all pros.

I get it though if you play in a shortsighted league. Stay away from Odunze then go try to steal him next offseason from an impatient owner

Agreed on both points. JSN looms large. A lot of folks are more or less out on him. It feels reactionary and not isolated. Same thing on BY. I disliked QJ from the start so that one feels different.

Appreciate the feedback from both of you guys.

I hear you on JSN. But he's also not the level of prospect Odunze is. Now if you were talking about Pearsall, he's also stuck behind 2 very good WR and I could see his value dropping in a year if they do not move one. But I also really like his talent (similar to JSN) and wouldn't draft him and then sell after 1 year when the situation was keeping him from producing.

With QJ, I never believed in the talent and here we are with him being dropped heavily in the communities eyes.

You know how it's going to go.

Everyone: It's probably unfair to expect Odunze or Pearsall to beat out two really good WRs as rookies.

Everyone: Agreed

*Midseason*

Everyone: Why haven't Odunze and Pearsall beat out two really good WRs as rookies? Does this mean they suck?

[wickerkat1212]

LOL. I'm giving JSN three years to show me what he is. I'm holding and not a bit worried yet. I'm also all-in on those three WRs. I'll probably only have two shares of Harrison, no Nabers or Odunze (sadly) but I think all three will go on to be excellent WRs.