2024 Rookie Draft Strategies

[wickerkat1212]

Simply put, give me any of the Day 2 RB over the Day 2 WR. Not every year with every player, but I'm leaning that way nearly 100% of the time this year. I'm also dipping into Day 3 RB before most Day 2 WR as well.

That's a nice way to simplify it.

Yeah, basically. And if you want a wr, it doesn’t make any sense to draft a rookie when the hit rates even for 1st rounders is poor. You can EASILY trade that late-1st for a more proven wr. You can aquire Dell, Rice, you can even acquire guys like Waddle or DK that everyone hates for some reason. There’s so many better options than using a late-1st on a rookie wr this year, imo. Yes, there’s gonna be one or two that’s actually good, but there’s probably going to be at least double that that are bad. And good luck figuring out which will be good and which will be bad. I think Ladd is in a unique situation in which he’ll have to be all time terrible not to produce. But other than that it’s pretty sketchy to say with a good amount of certainty which will be good or bad

Another good point. I hadn't thought about trading a late 1st for a proven player, I always get caught up in the rookie fever. Luckily I seem to have subscribed to this for the most part, by accident so far, aside from BThomas, who I came around on and like quite a bit.

Dynasty #3—1.01 Harrison
Dynasty #4—1.10 Benson
Superflex #2—1.02 Harrison; 1.06 Maye; 1.11 BThomas; 2.02 Penix

You've made me rethink my 2nd/3rd round picks, as well as how I use my late 1sts. Good stuff, thanks.

[Jigga94]

I'd honestly prefer Benson over him, too.

Even if that Benson is Cedric

That's too far for me.

Coleman could absolutely shock us and dominate 50/50 balls with his basketball rebounding. I'm just not keen to pay an ADP premium to find out.

The MVS signing could also mean they intend to get Coleman more looks as a Z or Slot guy, rather than stranding him on the sideline playing X (which most of us have concerns about)

I'm happily still taking him over Adonai Mitchell and Legette if Brooks and Benson are gone. But I'd take Pearsall ahead, so I don't think I'll be getting much of him by current ADP's.

Glad to see the MVS signing finally brought up. I'm not sure it means Coleman will be a big slot type, especially with the slot WR they do have. But hopefully it means MVS takes the wind sprint/Gabe Davis role and Coleman can focus on other things and not be asked to do everything like a Treylon Burks or something.

Agreed on slotting the RB ahead of these WR and then Ladd/Pearsall, Coleman, then Legette/AD

[Jigga94]

Simply put, give me any of the Day 2 RB over the Day 2 WR. Not every year with every player, but I'm leaning that way nearly 100% of the time this year. I'm also dipping into Day 3 RB before most Day 2 WR as well.

That's a nice way to simplify it.

Yeah, basically. And if you want a wr, it doesn’t make any sense to draft a rookie when the hit rates even for 1st rounders is poor. You can EASILY trade that late-1st for a more proven wr. You can aquire Dell, Rice, you can even acquire guys like Waddle or DK that everyone hates for some reason. There’s so many better options than using a late-1st on a rookie wr this year, imo. Yes, there’s gonna be one or two that’s actually good, but there’s probably going to be at least double that that are bad. And good luck figuring out which will be good and which will be bad. I think Ladd is in a unique situation in which he’ll have to be all time terrible not to produce. But other than that it’s pretty sketchy to say with a good amount of certainty which will be good or bad

Just to expand. Think of all the WR from past drafts and compare their ADP to their value a year or 2 later. Even the ones that generally have good, but not great rookie years tend to drop or stay the same. Below are the 1st 2 rounds. Outside of that you have obvious risers like Tank and Puka, but they are outliers. Even guys like Wilson and Downs who showed some promise, didn't gain any value.

JSN - down
Flowers - up
Addison - same
Q Johnston - lol
Mims - down
Mingo - who?
Jayden Reed - up
Rashee Rice - it WAS up

[mild]

Glad to see the MVS signing finally brought up. I'm not sure it means Coleman will be a big slot type, especially with the slot WR they do have. But hopefully it means MVS takes the wind sprint/Gabe Davis role and Coleman can focus on other things and not be asked to do everything like a Treylon Burks or something.

Agreed on slotting the RB ahead of these WR and then Ladd/Pearsall, Coleman, then Legette/AD

Yeah we are seeing it the same.

Except I don't even think the Slot WR's in Buffalo are the true problem for Coleman being able to work in that part of the field.

I suspect the pass catcher to have in Buffalo this year is Dalton Kincaid, and not close.

If he's in any way the successor to Stefon Diggs' volume in terms of target share, then he'd be a league winner. Kincaid is yet to get truly targeted at volume. Could be scary if he does.

[wickerkat1212]

That's a nice way to simplify it.

Yeah, basically. And if you want a wr, it doesn’t make any sense to draft a rookie when the hit rates even for 1st rounders is poor. You can EASILY trade that late-1st for a more proven wr. You can aquire Dell, Rice, you can even acquire guys like Waddle or DK that everyone hates for some reason. There’s so many better options than using a late-1st on a rookie wr this year, imo. Yes, there’s gonna be one or two that’s actually good, but there’s probably going to be at least double that that are bad. And good luck figuring out which will be good and which will be bad. I think Ladd is in a unique situation in which he’ll have to be all time terrible not to produce. But other than that it’s pretty sketchy to say with a good amount of certainty which will be good or bad

Just to expand. Think of all the WR from past drafts and compare their ADP to their value a year or 2 later. Even the ones that generally have good, but not great rookie years tend to drop or stay the same. Below are the 1st 2 rounds. Outside of that you have obvious risers like Tank and Puka, but they are outliers. Even guys like Wilson and Downs who showed some promise, didn't gain any value.

JSN - down
Flowers - up
Addison - same
Q Johnston - lol
Mims - down
Mingo - who?
Jayden Reed - up
Rashee Rice - it WAS up

Yeah, good info here. I love the top three WRs in this class, with BT as my WR4 (even though I was down on him earlier in the year, so...we'll see how THAT goes) but you make some good points, about who you take in the late 1st and who you target in the 2nd. I'm still okay on taking some WR shots, but maybe not with my late 1sts, and early 2nds. I took a lot of shots of WR so far in this year's drafts, but most of those WERE later in the draft:

Dynasty #4 (1 qb, RB premium)

1.10 (10) Benson RB
2.10 (22) Polk WR
3.03 (27) Corley WR
4.10 (46) Theo Johnson TE
4.11 (48) Cowing WR

Superflex #1

3.09 (33) Rattler QB
3.10 (34) Sanders TE
3.11 (35) Cowing WR
3.12 (36) Estime RB
4.10 (46) MWashington WR

New Superflex #2 TEP

1.02 Harrison WR
1.06 Maye QB
1.11 BThomas WR
2.02 Penix QB

Outside of the top three WRs, the only WR I took in the first two rounds were Thomas at 1.11 and Polk at 2.08. I have one draft left with the following picks, and I may need to really rethink who I'm targeting, though again, most of my picks are later anyway. Any advice with these picks what you might do differently? 1 qb league, 1 ppr.

1.01 (1) Harrison
2.07 (19) Actually looking at Nix/Penix and Sinnott here
2.09 (21) Same
3.01 (25) I do like Corley in this range, but maybe I pivot to Davis, Estime, Vidal, Irving
3.02 (26) Same here
3.07 (33) Maybe Tracy, Shipley, Allen, Guerendo instead of WR flier

[Jigga94]

Glad to see the MVS signing finally brought up. I'm not sure it means Coleman will be a big slot type, especially with the slot WR they do have. But hopefully it means MVS takes the wind sprint/Gabe Davis role and Coleman can focus on other things and not be asked to do everything like a Treylon Burks or something.

Agreed on slotting the RB ahead of these WR and then Ladd/Pearsall, Coleman, then Legette/AD

Yeah we are seeing it the same.

Except I don't even think the Slot WR's in Buffalo are the true problem for Coleman being able to work in that part of the field.

I suspect the pass catcher to have in Buffalo this year is Dalton Kincaid, and not close.

If he's in any way the successor to Stefon Diggs' volume in terms of target share, then he'd be a league winner. Kincaid is yet to get truly targeted at volume. Could be scary if he does.

I like Kincaid. I am lumping him in with Shakir as their 2 slots/short/intermediate targets. I think they both will garner quite a bit of targets as is, but neither scream alpha to me. But I agree if Kincaid is the target hog, like Diggs was, then that will be a monster year, PPR scam for TE position

Coleman will need some refining to his game to carve out a solid role. At least the volume should be there and hes got the QB to help. Would be a fun player to watch hit his ceiling. I'm just not so confident

[lukkynumber13]

So - this only is relevant in deep TEP leagues with big rosters, but - Tip Reiman was a day 2 pick and is basically completely free. I’ve grabbed a few shares with the last pick of my rookie draft (when other guys are drafting UDFA RBs, and the 3rd CB in the NFL draft, etc

McBride has 2 more years in AZ - no 5th year option since he was a 2nd rounder - if Reiman has ANY potential, he’s worth a stash in a deep TEP league.

Idk, almost certainly amounts to nothing. But I’ll take free shares where I can get them.

[wickerkat1212]

So - this only is relevant in deep TEP leagues with big rosters, but - Tip Reiman was a day 2 pick and is basically completely free. I’ve grabbed a few shares with the last pick of my rookie draft (when other guys are drafting UDFA RBs, and the 3rd CB in the NFL draft, etc

McBride has 2 more years in AZ - no 5th year option since he was a 2nd rounder - if Reiman has ANY potential, he’s worth a stash in a deep TEP league.

Idk, almost certainly amounts to nothing. But I’ll take free shares where I can get them.

Thanks. He's on the WW in my only TEP league and I saw McBride and thought, "Pass." I'll see how my other WW moves go but I'll at least put him on my radar.

[JTLoh]

Spencer Ratler (3.4, 3.6, $27*)
Michael Pratt ($3*)

Xaiver Legette (2.8, 2.4, 2.7, 2.3, 1.13**)
Brendon Rice (4.12, 4.5, 3.12, 4.11)
Malachi Corley (2.12, 3.7, 3.4)
Malik Nabors (1.6)
Brian Thomas Jr (1.4**)
Ladd McConkey (1.05**)
Adonai Mitchell ($114*)
Ricky Pearsall (2.1)
JaLynn Polk (2.8)
Javon Baker (3.6)
Johnny Wilson (5.6)
Malik Washington (5.6*, $15*)
Xaiver Weaver (5.7*)

Audric Estime (3.12, 3.8, 4.8)
Kimani Vidal (3.10)
Isaac Guerendo (5.10*)
Cody Schrader (5.12*, $4*)
MarShawn Lloyd ($40*)
Dillion Johnson ($5*)

Erick All ($7*)
Theo Johnson ($23*)

* Draft before NFL Draft
** Devy League

[thunderTung]

left the draft this year with Nabers, McConkey, Maye, Braelon, Rice.

Was really hoping that I was gonna be able to grab Brooks/Lloyd or Bowers but Brooks and Bowers went pretty early and despite my efforts I couldnt trade back into the 2nd to grab Lloyd.

Overall i'm pleased but had some unexpected snipes that threw a wrench in my plans

What pick did you get nabers with?

I had the 1.02 1.07 and 2.01 in the first two rounds, grabbed Nabers, McConkey, and Maye in that order

[Jigga94]

I just had Maye and McCarthy sitting there at 1.08 in a 2QB draft. On one hand, I didn't expect Maye to even be there and have had him above McCarthy in ranks the whole time. On the other hand, it really didn't seem like a no brainer decision. I went with Maye but I could see JJM being better with the situation he is walking into

[Bronco Billy]

I just had Maye and McCarthy sitting there at 1.08 in a 2QB draft. On one hand, I didn't expect Maye to even be there and have had him above McCarthy in ranks the whole time. On the other hand, it really didn't seem like a no brainer decision. I went with Maye but I could see JJM being better with the situation he is walking into

I like both at that price point and agree it’s tough to pick between the two there. Personally I would have done what you did and just wait for it to shake out, but I’d also be fully prepared to have regrets a couple years down the road. Good luck!

[81-]

I'm starting to get googley eyes for A. Mitchell

[Bronco Billy]

I'm starting to get googley eyes for A. Mitchell

Put down the bottle.

Seriously, I really like the talent but I intensely dislike the situation.

[Shcritters]

I'm starting to get googley eyes for A. Mitchell

Put down the bottle.

Seriously, I really like the talent but I intensely dislike the situation.

Yup, this is where I'm at also. Limited throwing QB, a packed depth chart... and he'd have to be the outlier of outliers analytically to hit. These aren't the type of lottery tickets I like to buy.