2024 Rookie Draft Strategies

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Some semi-hot-ish takes:

I'd rather take Jermaine Burton than Polk. (I don't think I'm going to be getting a lot of Polk)

I'd rather gamble on Javon Baker's upside at his cost than Polk.

I'd rather gamble on Jalen McMillan at his cost than Polk.

I'm taking Jonathan Brooks over Ladd and Coleman.

I’d be surprised if Brooks over Coleman isn’t consensus

[mild]

Some semi-hot-ish takes:

I'd rather take Jermaine Burton than Polk. (I don't think I'm going to be getting a lot of Polk)

I'd rather gamble on Javon Baker's upside at his cost than Polk.

I'd rather gamble on Jalen McMillan at his cost than Polk.

I'm taking Jonathan Brooks over Ladd and Coleman.

I’d be surprised if Brooks over Coleman isn’t consensus

It pretty much is. Over Ladd is a bit more heated.

I didn't say they were raging hot takes.

[FantasyFreak]

Some semi-hot-ish takes:

I'd rather take Jermaine Burton than Polk. (I don't think I'm going to be getting a lot of Polk)

I'd rather gamble on Javon Baker's upside at his cost than Polk.

I'd rather gamble on Jalen McMillan at his cost than Polk.

I'm taking Jonathan Brooks over Ladd and Coleman.

I’d be surprised if Brooks over Coleman isn’t consensus

I'd honestly prefer Benson over him, too.

[Jigga94]

Some semi-hot-ish takes:

I'd rather take Jermaine Burton than Polk. (I don't think I'm going to be getting a lot of Polk)

I'd rather gamble on Javon Baker's upside at his cost than Polk.

I'd rather gamble on Jalen McMillan at his cost than Polk.

I'm taking Jonathan Brooks over Ladd and Coleman.

Last one is ice cold, I would take Brooks too. You're pretty low on Polk though, but I understand it and don't see myself rushing to pick him anywhere either. The situation is wide open, but there's no guarantees with NE

[Jigga94]

I don't have many top 7/8 picks in SF this year, but I can't bring myself to trade down for value like I tend to do. Usually by the late 1st I'll be looking to trade out while some guys try to trade in and go for the Worthy/Coleman/Brooks

I really like the top prospects this year and think they dwarf other years. For example, getting Odunze, a WR1 in most other drafts, is a huge value.

I also think the drop off from there is pretty steep, even to the top RB. There can be value in the early 2nd before it drops off again. Ideally I'll be able to trade a late 1st for early 2nd+3rd or so. Give me whoever is left of the Coleman/Worthy/etc + a 3rd round RB.

If Penix falls out of the 1st, I am taking him.

After that drop off from the Ladd/Pearsall range, I'll be drafting as many RB as possible. Likely a handful of RB before them, but the top 4-5 tend to be reached for a little to high for my liking.

I tend to stay flexible, but pending a crazy fall or trade landing in my lap, that's how I expect most of my drafts to go.

[mild]

Last one is ice cold, I would take Brooks too. You're pretty low on Polk though, but I understand it and don't see myself rushing to pick him anywhere either. The situation is wide open, but there's no guarantees with NE

Quite a

few places have

Ladd over Brooks.

It's shifted lately as more people have cottoned on, but it wasn't straightforward for those of us sitting at Pick 10 and trying to figure out our boards for a bit.

I just think Polk is overpriced for what you're buying in his range. The hype has gone too far for my taste. I like the player, but there's no ceiling there if he hits. Gimme the RB's going around him (Corum, Lloyd, Wright if you're a believer) and I'll come back and get the higher ceiling NE WR in the next round in Baker.

[wickerkat1212]

And yet, I kept hearing what an average/weak RB class this was, vs a super deep WR class. IDK.

[mild]

And yet, I kept hearing what an average/weak RB class this was, vs a super deep WR class. IDK.

We of the Brooks believers would encourage you to keep saying that. It's letting him hide in plain sight.

[Jigga94]

And yet, I kept hearing what an average/weak RB class this was, vs a super deep WR class. IDK.

It is still. The top 3 WR are awesome, better than any WR prospect last year. There were also 7 drafted in the 1st and another 3 were drafted in the first 5 picks of the 2nd round. Outside of that, people are excited for some of the upside guys like AD Mitchell, Burton and Baker bring. There also are some good ancillary players like Roman, McMillan, McCaffery and some even like Corley.

Meanwhile, there were 2 2nd round RB and 2 in round 3. There were 7 RB in round 4, but they all have some red flags or are likely part of a committee (which RB isn't though?).

Now apply Supply and Demand to the RB and WR position. I know in most cases that drafting a day 2 WR is lighting a pick (and bench spot for 2 years) on fire. I don't see myself ever starting Roman Wilson, I have several better WR already. If I was, I could probably go find 90% of his production on the waiver or I could just trade a 2nd and get better production.

The RB on the other hand either wins the (starting/backup/committee) job or doesn't. You can move on quickly or flip for a profit in some cases. There are also way less viable RB out there and I know my leagues rarely ever trade good ones. Drafting RB in the mid and late rounds ever since they have been devalued for all being in committees, has been my go to move. It's practically my only way to get RB, but I appreciate that the RBBC sentiment has devalued them into the 2nd/3rd round instead of having to spend late 1sts on guys like Keyshawn Vaughn.

What is most interesting to me is how deep the WR position is becoming in comparison. We aren't necessarily seeing more fantasy points by WR, but the influx of talent has been great. I said years ago that outside the top guys, they are all a dime a dozen. I stand by that even more now. WR31-38 on KTC are all valued behind a 25 late 1st. They include Deebo, Adams, Evans, Kupp, Terry, Diggs, Kirk.

[wickerkat1212]

And yet, I kept hearing what an average/weak RB class this was, vs a super deep WR class. IDK.

It is still. The top 3 WR are awesome, better than any WR prospect last year. There were also 7 drafted in the 1st and another 3 were drafted in the first 5 picks of the 2nd round. Outside of that, people are excited for some of the upside guys like AD Mitchell, Burton and Baker bring. There also are some good ancillary players like Roman, McMillan, McCaffery and some even like Corley.

Meanwhile, there were 2 2nd round RB and 2 in round 3. There were 7 RB in round 4, but they all have some red flags or are likely part of a committee (which RB isn't though?).

Now apply Supply and Demand to the RB and WR position. I know in most cases that drafting a day 2 WR is lighting a pick (and bench spot for 2 years) on fire. I don't see myself ever starting Roman Wilson, I have several better WR already. If I was, I could probably go find 90% of his production on the waiver or I could just trade a 2nd and get better production.

The RB on the other hand either wins the (starting/backup/committee) job or doesn't. You can move on quickly or flip for a profit in some cases. There are also way less viable RB out there and I know my leagues rarely ever trade good ones. Drafting RB in the mid and late rounds ever since they have been devalued for all being in committees, has been my go to move. It's practically my only way to get RB, but I appreciate that the RBBC sentiment has devalued them into the 2nd/3rd round instead of having to spend late 1sts on guys like Keyshawn Vaughn.

What is most interesting to me is how deep the WR position is becoming in comparison. We aren't necessarily seeing more fantasy points by WR, but the influx of talent has been great. I said years ago that outside the top guys, they are all a dime a dozen. I stand by that even more now. WR31-38 on KTC are all valued behind a 25 late 1st. They include Deebo, Adams, Evans, Kupp, Terry, Diggs, Kirk.

Well said. I think most are in on Brooks/Benson, and the top three WRs, and then we have a deep QB class, 4-6 depending on your league. I think early only the WRs are dominant, but once you get to the top 10-15 WRs, it might be smart to pivot to the RBs. That was KIND OF my plan, depending on my picks. It might be better to take Estime than Corley, or a Vidal over Cowing/TE. The second round of our drafts is going to be very interesting so I think I can see a path to whatever you're trying to do—1 QB or Superflex, and how you go after the top six QB, top 10 RBs, top 15 WRS, and top 4 TEs.

A really good discussion here that has me really thinking about what I'll do with my picks in my last draft, a 1 QB league where I have:

1.01 (1) Harrison
2.07 (19)
2.09 (21)
3.01 (25)
3.02 (26)
3.07 (33)

In one league I took Polk at 2.08 over Wright. Part of my thinking there was it's a crowded backfield with Achane, Mostert, and now Wright. But in hindsight, he went right after my pick at 2.09 and I wonder if that was a mistake on my part. I know the thought is talent over situation, that the good players will find a way to start. IDK.

In that same league, I did trade in to the 1.08 to get Benson, since I own Conner, and I felt great about that move. I traded my 2025 1st (late) plus the 2.09 to get Benson. In a 12-man, RB-premium league (we start a MINIMUM of three RBs) I was willing to pay that price.

FWIW here is how the RBs went—

1.04 4 WaterBoi Brooks, Jonathon CAR RB
1.10 10 WickerKat Benson, Trey ARI RB

2.04 16 WaterBoi Corum, Blake LAR RB
2.05 17 Toneloc Lloyd, MarShawn GBP RB
2.07 19 Toneloc Vidal, Kimani LAC RB
2.11 23 Ragin Kajun Wright, Jaylen MIA RB

3.09 33 Herbolator Irving, Bucky TBB RB
3.10 34 GatoRKinG Davis, Ray BUF RB
3.11 35 Ragin Kajun Guerendo, Isaac SFO RB
3.12 36 BonerNose (RD4) Estime, Audric DEN RB

4.02 38 Big Bird Tracy, Tyrone NYG RB
4.03 39 Natonators Allen, Braelon NYJ RB
4.04 40 WaterBoi Shipley, Will PHI RB
4.06 42 Giant Bear Vaki, Sione DET RB
4.08 44 Big Bird Laube, Dylan LVR RB
4.09 45 Herbolator Davis, Isaiah NYJ RB
4.12 48 Ragin Kajun Ali, Rasheen BAL RB

[Jigga94]

Simply put, give me any of the Day 2 RB over the Day 2 WR. Not every year with every player, but I'm leaning that way nearly 100% of the time this year. I'm also dipping into Day 3 RB before most Day 2 WR as well.

[wickerkat1212]

Simply put, give me any of the Day 2 RB over the Day 2 WR. Not every year with every player, but I'm leaning that way nearly 100% of the time this year. I'm also dipping into Day 3 RB before most Day 2 WR as well.

That's a nice way to simplify it.

[cazzie33]

Some semi-hot-ish takes:

I'd rather take Jermaine Burton than Polk. (I don't think I'm going to be getting a lot of Polk)

I'd rather gamble on Javon Baker's upside at his cost than Polk.

I'd rather gamble on Jalen McMillan at his cost than Polk.

I'm taking Jonathan Brooks over Ladd and Coleman.

I’d be surprised if Brooks over Coleman isn’t consensus

I'd honestly prefer Benson over him, too.

Even if that Benson is Cedric

[mild]

I’d be surprised if Brooks over Coleman isn’t consensus

I'd honestly prefer Benson over him, too.

Even if that Benson is Cedric

That's too far for me.

Coleman could absolutely shock us and dominate 50/50 balls with his basketball rebounding. I'm just not keen to pay an ADP premium to find out.

The MVS signing could also mean they intend to get Coleman more looks as a Z or Slot guy, rather than stranding him on the sideline playing X (which most of us have concerns about)

I'm happily still taking him over Adonai Mitchell and Legette if Brooks and Benson are gone. But I'd take Pearsall ahead, so I don't think I'll be getting much of him by current ADP's.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Simply put, give me any of the Day 2 RB over the Day 2 WR. Not every year with every player, but I'm leaning that way nearly 100% of the time this year. I'm also dipping into Day 3 RB before most Day 2 WR as well.

That's a nice way to simplify it.

Yeah, basically. And if you want a wr, it doesn’t make any sense to draft a rookie when the hit rates even for 1st rounders is poor. You can EASILY trade that late-1st for a more proven wr. You can aquire Dell, Rice, you can even acquire guys like Waddle or DK that everyone hates for some reason. There’s so many better options than using a late-1st on a rookie wr this year, imo. Yes, there’s gonna be one or two that’s actually good, but there’s probably going to be at least double that that are bad. And good luck figuring out which will be good and which will be bad. I think Ladd is in a unique situation in which he’ll have to be all time terrible not to produce. But other than that it’s pretty sketchy to say with a good amount of certainty which will be good or bad