Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[mild]

I think it says something that when you are looking for positive TEAM SITUATION, you found a sample size of 1 game. Just saying.

Both can be true.

Now, please go find me the sample size of JJ McCarthy being down in the 4th Quarter in a 2 minute drill and putting his team on his back to win the game.

[stoneghost28]

I've seen a few posts about it, but how do you all feel about Nabers in NYG? Are you downgrading? Here's how I see the top three—

Harrison—great spot, WR1, will get a lot of targets, slight upgrade
Nabers—average QB, average WRs around him, should get targets, slight downgrade
Odunze—great QB situation, great WRs around him, short-term slight downgrade, long-term upgrade

I had Nabers as WR1 predraft, here is my current ranking:

Harrison - great landing spot, slight upgrade
Nabers - bad landing spot, slight downgrade, QB questions and MetLife turf concerns
Odunze - bad landing spot, slight downgrade, QB questions and crowded WR room (maybe 1 day Caleb will be great QB situation, but not yet)

Nice point about the Met Life angle. Hadn't really thought of that.

Important notes for Odunze which also probably explain the selection: Keenan is a UFA in '25, and DJ Moore is a UFA in '26, and can be a cut candidate in '25 if they need space as he'll cost nothing to dump.

Seems clear to me that if you draft Odunze, yeah, '24 probably aint gonna be all that, but long term there's a lot of value there as he has by far the best QB situation of the options other than maybe Harrison, but the Cardinals were basically stealth QB shoppers if they could dump Kyler on someone (maybe buyers remorse there supposedly), but nobody's taking on that contract which is even worse than Jones deal if he can't stay healthy (runs through '26 before you can cut the guy with minimal dead cap pain)...

No question Harrison's landing spot is the closest to ideal with a good QB and an open WR room.

No question Nabers situation is the worst, with a total --- QB, and a team with a strong enough Defense, and supporting cast to probably never draft high in the '25 or '26 classes to land an elite replacement for Jones. Basically they got to land a steal outside the blue chip zone, trade or sign a league average option, or he ends up with the Allen Robinson nightmare until he leaves in free agency, and hopefully unlike Allen, he prioritizes the right teams rather than the contract (in fairness, supposedly Allen was close to going to KC and Mahomes, but lost out to a buffalo bust Sammy Watkins). But I think like you, I felt Nabers was the 1A or 1B to Harrison, so I traded for the 1.02 in a lot of places and just spent the last four months praying the giants traded up for a QB and didn't pick Nabers. Oh well.

[stoneghost28]

I've seen a few posts about it, but how do you all feel about Nabers in NYG? Are you downgrading? Here's how I see the top three—

Harrison—great spot, WR1, will get a lot of targets, slight upgrade
Nabers—average QB, average WRs around him, should get targets, slight downgrade
Odunze—great QB situation, great WRs around him, short-term slight downgrade, long-term upgrade

I had Nabers as WR1 predraft, here is my current ranking:

Harrison - great landing spot, slight upgrade
Nabers - bad landing spot, slight downgrade, QB questions and MetLife turf concerns
Odunze - bad landing spot, slight downgrade, QB questions and crowded WR room (maybe 1 day Caleb will be great QB situation, but not yet)

Nice point about the Met Life angle. Hadn't really thought of that.

Important notes for Odunze which also probably explain the selection: Keenan is a UFA in '25, and DJ Moore is a UFA in '26, and can be a cut candidate in '25 if they need space as he'll cost nothing to dump.

Seems clear to me that if you draft Odunze, yeah, '24 probably aint gonna be all that, but long term there's a lot of value there as he has by far the best QB situation of the options other than maybe Harrison, but the Cardinals were basically stealth QB shoppers if they could dump Kyler on someone (maybe buyers remorse there supposedly), but nobody's taking on that contract which is even worse than Jones deal if he can't stay healthy (runs through '26 before you can cut the guy with minimal dead cap pain)...

No question Harrison's landing spot is the closest to ideal with a good QB and an open WR room.

No question Nabers situation is the worst, with a total --- QB, and a team with a strong enough Defense, and supporting cast to probably never draft high in the '25 or '26 classes to land an elite replacement for Jones. Basically they got to land a steal outside the blue chip zone, trade or sign a league average option, or he ends up with the Allen Robinson nightmare until he leaves in free agency, and hopefully unlike Allen, he prioritizes the right teams rather than the contract (in fairness, supposedly Allen was close to going to KC and Mahomes, but lost out to a buffalo bust Sammy Watkins). But I think like you, I felt Nabers was the 1A or 1B to Harrison, so I traded for the 1.02 in a lot of places and just spent the last four months praying the giants traded up for a QB and didn't pick Nabers. Oh well.

[stoneghost28]

I've seen a few posts about it, but how do you all feel about Nabers in NYG? Are you downgrading? Here's how I see the top three—

Harrison—great spot, WR1, will get a lot of targets, slight upgrade
Nabers—average QB, average WRs around him, should get targets, slight downgrade
Odunze—great QB situation, great WRs around him, short-term slight downgrade, long-term upgrade

I had Nabers as WR1 predraft, here is my current ranking:

Harrison - great landing spot, slight upgrade
Nabers - bad landing spot, slight downgrade, QB questions and MetLife turf concerns
Odunze - bad landing spot, light downgrade, QB questions and crowded WR room (maybe 1 day Caleb will be great QB situation, but not yet)

I know not everyone loves CW and he has to of course prove himself, but he's the best QB the Bears have ever drafted IMO, and the ability of Caleb and Odunze to grow together, the chemistry they already have, I see those as all plusses. Allen will be gone in a year or two, but you want good WRs to draw the attention, DJM will still get the top coverage IMO. I think Odunze has a solid rookie year and then starts to take the WR2 job next year. I hope we have a Manning to 1A Harrison and 1B Wayne situation. I don't expect Caleb to have a Stroud rookie year, but I think he'll do very well this year. We'll see.

Its funny how the Bears and Redskins/WFT have had a decent amount of success over the years, though not recently, and yet both teams have been total, and complete --- at drafting franchise QB's. It is more than reasonable to argue that neither team has successfully drafted and developed a truly elite franchise QB since the Great Depression (The redskins/WFT with Sammy Baugh, the first truly special passer in the league, the Bears with Sid Luckman. Since those guys, I don't think either has ever done it. The Bears came close with McMahon, but he just couldn't stay healthy, like, ever, the the WFT/Redskins did draft and develop Cousins, but the ghastly playoff history and big game history is impossible to ignore, and he left.

[murphysxm]

Just so it is said out loud. Rome, MHJR and Nabors are all extremely high level prospects. Can we please stop talking about landing spots. Great WR's get theirs.

[Jigga94]

Just so it is said out loud. Rome, MHJR and Nabors are all extremely high level prospects. Can we please stop talking about landing spots. Great WR's get theirs.

There's still 3 months left to go to hyper analyze these guys though

[Bronco Billy]

Just so it is said out loud. Rome, MHJR and Nabors are all extremely high level prospects. Can we please stop talking about landing spots. Great WR's get theirs.

[youtube]https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uTmfwklFM-M[/youtube]

[wickerkat1212]

12-man, TEP (2 TOTAL PPR) $1000 FAAB—how much would you big on Jared Wiley, KC TE?

[jordanzs]

5% maybe? I hate to overspend early in the offseason. He's not puka

[Bronco Billy]

5% maybe? I hate to overspend early in the offseason. He's not puka

Not disagreeing with your assessment, but who knew Puka was Puka before he was Puka?

[Jrblaha]

I think it says something that when you are looking for positive TEAM SITUATION, you found a sample size of 1 game. Just saying.

Both can be true.

Now, please go find me the sample size of JJ McCarthy being down in the 4th Quarter in a 2 minute drill and putting his team on his back to win the game.

Not last 2 mins, but TD pass drive starting at 4minSomething through 1minSomething of regulation time in CFP versus Bama, to force OT, he did that imo.

[CGW]

TEP $1000 FAAB—how much would you big on Jared Wiley, KC TE?

How much premium? How many teams? Without knowing much info I'm going to say try a $1 bid. Everyone just passed on him for 5 rounds in a rookie draft and not much has changed. He is still behind Kelce for 2+ years and likely Noah Gray as well.

[wickerkat1212]

TEP $1000 FAAB—how much would you big on Jared Wiley, KC TE?

How much premium? How many teams? Without knowing much info I'm going to say try a $1 bid. Everyone just passed on him for 5 rounds in a rookie draft and not much has changed. He is still behind Kelce for 2+ years and likely Noah Gray as well.

Ah, sorry, left out some key details, thanks. 12-man league. TEs get a total of 2 PPR, where everyone else gets 1 PPR, so a full point difference. For example here are the top 5 TEs in our league last year—

1. Hockenson, T.J. MIN TE 314.00
2. Kelce, Travis KCC TE 312.40
3. Engram, Evan JAC TE 310.40
4. LaPorta, Sam DET TE 306.40
5. Njoku, David CLE TE 282.20

vs a standard 1 PPR league—

1. LaPorta, Sam DET TE 225.40
2. Kelce, Travis KCC TE 221.40
3. Hockenson, T.J. MIN TE 221.00
4. Engram, Evan JAC TE 210.40
5. Njoku, David CLE TE 205.20

So my best TE, Ferguson, was #9 with 229. I'm honestly surprised Wiley didn't get drafted in THIS league, as he DID get drafted in one of my 1 QB non-TEP leagues at 4.05. In my other Superflex he went undrafted (non TEP).

[stoneghost28]

There's a decent chance Jones is not the Giants QB after 2024. I wouldn't be downgrading Nabers at all. And based on drafts I've been a part of, nobody is downgrading him.

I thought the 2025 QB class was supposed to be pretty weak? Do you feel Nabers is "landing spot proof" that he will perform no matter who is his QB? I'm looking to make a move to get the 1.02. Thanks!

The Giants QB in '25 doesn't necessarily have to come from the draft. They could easily make a trade or sign a veteran QB that will heavily target Nabers. It is an unknown, which makes it dicey, but Nabers may well be landing spot proof as well.

I think it would have to be void, or some guy cut like Cousins or something. Basically the big draws are Dak, Jordan Love and Tua, but Miami is supposedly gonna reup Tua, same with the Pack and Love, and people assume Dak will be back at some point because there isn't another option, so the Giants are in a weird spot.

It is worth mentioning the '25 class is disappointing, but it's not '22 and '19 level garbage, its in a kind of weird nether world, not at the level of the horrid '13, '14, '19, and '22 groups, but definitely not in that '18, '20, '21, '23, '24 level either. I think the general view is that it's like a poor man's '18, where there's a glut of guys with similar all over the place evals like in '18 (basically '18 had 5 guys that could go anywhere between 1 and 25 for most) and maybe even '99 for the old timers. Its a weird group because there's about 3 or 4 that could go 1st round. In '13, '14, '19 and '22 you simply did not have that. '19 had 1 guy, '22 has 2 guys, '13 and '14 had none. This '25 class has 3 or 4 guys projected as top 5-20 picks at QB, but none of them have the upside of Drake, Daniels, Williams, Stroud, Richardson, Lawrence, Young, kyler etc. You've shadeur as the dual threat guy, Cam Ward down in Miami, and I think another 2 or 3 guys that are more pro style, and projected in that 5-25 zone (with one of them that might edge out Shadeur and be the top QB selected). So its not like its a terrible class, it kind of feels more like a '17 or '18, but where the valuations are more in line with '17 than '18 (nobody would take any of these '25 QB's #1 overall in a great QB draft, whereas some of the '18 guys could have gone #1 in certain good QB drafts). Im curious what will happen, but I definitely don't see a repeat of '19, and '22 where there was literally 1 guy total worth a 1st from those classes combined based on prospect profile. Its definitely better than that.

I think the Giants cut Jones, bring in a vet, and draft a QB next year, I think they clear the decks, kind of like Washington did this year (except I think the Giants will go for a much better vet than Mariota because the draftee won't be as locked in as an auto starter as Daniels was this year).

[stoneghost28]

Anyone have any thoughts on Cade Stover HOU TE?

He's one of the few day 3 guys that's interesting. His athletic testing was in 75thish or better percentile, and athletic profile for TE's is a big deal, most TE's who hit tend to be on the highest end of the athletic profile. He's right in there.

So to me, is he worth a flyer w/a 3rd or 4th? Probably, just don't expect to land an elite TE with him, he's a guy whose probable ceiling is gonna be like a Tyler Conklin plus. He's not a hidden superstar guy from what I can tell. Interesting side note that I didn't realize until I dug into this guy just now: was a 4 star OLB prospect when Ohio State got his signature. So he played both sides of the ball in high school, but was seen as an OLB at the next level, instead he moved over to TE.

Interesting prospect, I'm skeptical he has stardom in his future, but utility as a bench TE? I could see that. Clearly Brevin Jordan, once Pitts competition in '21 if memory serves, is no longer a TE worthy of any consideration. Unless I'm remembering wrong this is the third day 2 or early day 3 guy the Texans have taken at TE in the past 5 years, my old fav, Kahale Warring, who busted completely, Brevin, another cheap target of mine, failed as well, and now Stover. Pretty rough run of TE's.