The Curious Case of Keon Coleman

[Shcritters]

With Coleman the analytics profile is weak... but Matt Harmon said on a podcast 'if there is any QB who could make Keon Coleman work it is Josh Allen'.

I had him on my 'do not draft list', but took him at 2.02 against my senses in one league where all of Worthy, McConkey, BTJr, and Penix were gone. It was him or Brooks/Benson or Pearsall. My team in that league isn't competing and I'm taking RB's next year (a RB draft), and he seemed worth a shot there.

I view him as a 'high risk, high reward' player - similar to BTJr. If he plays slot a large amount of the time (doesn't look likely) and/or Allen trusts and develops a rapport with him he could turn into a top 20 WR. If neither of these things are true he's probably going to bust because he (currently) doesn't have the separation and/or route running to succeed in the NFL as an X receiver.

[Fish Sticks]

I recently took him at 1.11 in a single qb. I think the fact that he is going late first, early to mid 2nd makes him a really good value.

Yeah plenty of negative things to say about him but I think there is enough positive to take a shot.

1. Landing spot is obviously his big appeal. Has the potential to be WR1 tied to Allen.
2. He had an early break out. Two years ago he outproduced Reed and Reed has looked good in the NFL
3. He is only 20. I looked at the two guys drafted before him and they both 23. He has time to develop yet.
4. He also had the fastest gauntlet time at the combine. Last year's top time was Puka. He also did well in other drills. To me that makes up for his weak 40 time.

I would say he has just as good as shot as anyone else in the class behind the top 3 to produce well. Just my 2 cents.

[Finfansteve]

I guess I’d draft him if he dropped low enough to make it worth the risk (mid-late 2nd) but living in western New York I don’t see that happening in any draft I’ll be involved in. To me it seems if a decent DB is on him he will be able to be neutralized on a game to game basis. They’ll have to scheme him open (I don’t think the buffalo coaches are creative enough to do that) and he will have to learn how to get open in the nfl with his skill set. Maybe those two things are possible but I won’t be betting they are with an early pick unless I hear differently in camp and see it in the preseason. I’ll be more than happy letting another owner risk a pick to see if it happens

[Ice]

I guess I’d draft him if he dropped low enough to make it worth the risk (mid-late 2nd) but living in western New York I don’t see that happening in any draft I’ll be involved in. To me it seems if a decent DB is on him he will be able to be neutralized on a game to game basis. They’ll have to scheme him open (I don’t think the buffalo coaches are creative enough to do that) and he will have to learn how to get open in the nfl with his skill set. Maybe those two things are possible but I won’t be betting they are with an early pick unless I hear differently in camp and see it in the preseason. I’ll be more than happy letting another owner risk a pick to see if it happens

The Bills are a top 10 passing team with a QB that forces safety movements. Keon will dwarf a lot of DB's in man and his box out skills are significant. Multi-sport athlete with soft hands and a nose for the end zone. Looks like a stronger Drake London that will play all over the field on offense.

It is silly IMO to think Coleman after the top 3-4 WRs in fantasy is a reach in this draft. I can see liking a few others more but mid second is completely unrealistic. You're correct, you have no chance of landing him if you are in a league with experienced players.

Surprised more don't look at recent History. The Bills are going for their 5th straight division title. This team historically relies on a #1 WR.

In the last 4 years their top WR had 425 receptions, 5372 yards and 37 TD's.

In steps one Keon Coleman who will line up all over the field as the heir apparent. The Bills are no fools when it comes to WR's. He may never be Diggs but he is in a fantastic situation.

I was reminded the other day when someone said " There is a reason the Car Windshield is so much larger than the rear view mirror" Know the history but focus on what is ahead.

[Bronco Billy]

Call me silly then.

BUF, like KC, has hardly been the standard for NFL teams who evaluate and identify WR talent and then develop it, despite having the strong advantage of great QB play that should make up for at least some of the WRs’ flaws.

For some reason there is a mentality by some FFers that if a WR gets drafted into these situations that significant shortcomings will suddenly disappear and that the guy just has to magically gain talent and will earn a large target share even though there is a track record that indicates otherwise.

[gogobradyarm]

This guy screams Brandon Lloyd to me. He is going to have some insane highlight reel catches, but probably will never be a WR1 in fantasy. Just my couch analysis.

[Shcritters]

I guess I’d draft him if he dropped low enough to make it worth the risk (mid-late 2nd) but living in western New York I don’t see that happening in any draft I’ll be involved in. To me it seems if a decent DB is on him he will be able to be neutralized on a game to game basis. They’ll have to scheme him open (I don’t think the buffalo coaches are creative enough to do that) and he will have to learn how to get open in the nfl with his skill set. Maybe those two things are possible but I won’t be betting they are with an early pick unless I hear differently in camp and see it in the preseason. I’ll be more than happy letting another owner risk a pick to see if it happens

The Bills are a top 10 passing team with a QB that forces safety movements. Keon will dwarf a lot of DB's in man and his box out skills are significant. Multi-sport athlete with soft hands and a nose for the end zone. Looks like a stronger Drake London that will play all over the field on offense.

It is silly IMO to think Coleman after the top 3-4 WRs in fantasy is a reach in this draft. I can see liking a few others more but mid second is completely unrealistic. You're correct, you have no chance of landing him if you are in a league with experienced players.

Surprised more don't look at recent History. The Bills are going for their 5th straight division title. This team historically relies on a #1 WR.

In the last 4 years their top WR had 425 receptions, 5372 yards and 37 TD's.

In steps one Keon Coleman who will line up all over the field as the heir apparent. The Bills are no fools when it comes to WR's. He may never be Diggs but he is in a fantastic situation.

I was reminded the other day when someone said " There is a reason the Car Windshield is so much larger than the rear view mirror" Know the history but focus on what is ahead.

I think he was saying that because he’s in the New York area that he’ll get over-drafted because people will be BUF fans.

The question for me is ‘how comfortable will Allen be at throwing him open?’ If Allen trusts him - and I think he will because Allen is a slinger - it is going to overcome some of Coleman’s inability to separate.

I can see both outcomes on this one - him becoming a top 15 WR because Allen force feeds him, or him becoming a complete bust. He’s probably the highest outcome variation WR in this draft.

[ArrylT]

This guy screams Brandon Lloyd to me. He is going to have some insane highlight reel catches, but probably will never be a WR1 in fantasy. Just my couch analysis.

Brandon Lloyd did have a WR1 season fyi - he was WR 2 Overall in PPR in 2010. The following year in 2011 he was a WR 2 (#23) overall.

77-1448-11
70-966-5

Addendum:

Lloyd was also the 49ers leader in targets & receptions in 2005 - unfortunately the 2005 49ers had the following QB tandem that combined for 389 passing attempts (and 2200 passing yards).

Alex Smith
Tim Rattay
Ken Dorsey
Cody Pickett

In fact the only player with more yards from scrimmage that year than Lloyd was Kevan Barlow (even the eternal Frank Gore couldnt save the 2005 49ers )

[YouMightDieTryin]

Call me silly then.

BUF, like KC, has hardly been the standard for NFL teams who evaluate and identify WR talent and then develop it, despite having the strong advantage of great QB play that should make up for at least some of the WRs’ flaws.

For some reason there is a mentality by some FFers that if a WR gets drafted into these situations that significant shortcomings will suddenly disappear and that the guy just has to magically gain talent and will earn a large target share even though there is a track record that indicates otherwise.

In a vacuum. =- Coleman or Worthy? And why? I know you're not truly fond of either, but just curious who you'd choose. Both have obvious glaring red flags, but both do have some attributes that could succeed.

The more I hear about Coleman (press conferences, etc) the more I enjoy the guy. He honestly has his head on somewhat straight compared to some of the knobs out there. Same with Legette. Obviously we can't just base our decisions on how "well liked" a person can be, but does it persuade anyone with coinflip choices?

[Cameron Giles]

I think he was saying that because he’s in the New York area that he’ll get over-drafted because people will be BUF fans.

The question for me is ‘how comfortable will Allen be at throwing him open?’ If Allen trusts him - and I think he will because Allen is a slinger - it is going to overcome some of Coleman’s inability to separate.

I can see both outcomes on this one - him becoming a top 15 WR because Allen force feeds him, or him becoming a complete bust. He’s probably the highest outcome variation WR in this draft.

Idk, all this talk about Coleman getting volume makes me wonder if we all watched the same player in college. Yes, Buffalo has a ton of targets vacated. But, what about Coleman's game suggests that he's a player that can be force fed and an offense will get somewhat appealing results?

Don't get me wrong, he is talented and a circus freak at times. But he is wildly inconsistent, doesn't separate and has never proven to be a go-to guy. I just can't picture Buffalo giving him 10 targets a game off the bat and it plays out well.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Draft him high. Josh Allen asked for him.

#analysis

[Shcritters]

Draft him high. Josh Allen asked for him.

#analysis

Did he ask for him, or was the quote ‘you were who I wanted’?

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Draft him high. Josh Allen asked for him.

#analysis

Did he ask for him, or was the quote ‘you were who I wanted’?

Same yield

[Shcritters]

Draft him high. Josh Allen asked for him.

#analysis

Did he ask for him, or was the quote ‘you were who I wanted’?

Same yield

Not a huge deal, but disagree with you on that. One of these is a veritable fact, and the other is something that can be said after the draft about anyone who ends up on your team (which may or may not be true).

[81-]

I currently have him ranked in the 11/12 range in 1qb. I'm sure he'll go higher than I'll be picking. Not on my post draft trade target list.