QB Passing Touchdown Length Percentage Analysis

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I thought this was pretty interesting so I had to share. So I've been looking at College Splits for QBs for a really long time (5+ years), and today I may have stumbled upon something. It could be nonsense or it could be a trend. In any event, the findings are quite interesting and counter-intuitive.

I had the idea today that maybe where a QB throws touchdowns from on the field could be predictive. So for example, I had it in my head that QB's like Mahomes would have thrown for a higher percentage of touchdowns from a longer distance in college, and that could be a sign that they would prove successful in the NFL.

But what I found was actually the opposite. Successful QB's in the NFL, on average, actually had a lower percentage of long passing touchdowns (in college), and the QB's that went on to be busts had a higher percentage of long passing touchdowns (in college). Moreover, Quarterbacks that decreased their percentage of longer touchdowns from their 2nd to last year (in college), to their last year(in college), have a very high rate of success in the NFL. And the inverse is also true, that those quarterbacks that increase their long touchdown rate during their final collegiate season tend to have a very low rate of success in the NFL. For the purposes of this analysis, a long passing touchdown is a passing touchdown that originates from outside the redzone.

There seems to be some merit to this although it's a little unclear why. The first idea that popped into my head was that as a QB matures into the style that will work in the NFL, they become less of a risky gunslinger, so less downfield yolo throws. The quarterbacks that increase their long touchdown percentage are increasing their risk, and are going the opposite direction of the style of play that will work in the NFL. Or, maybe the QB's that are throwing more long touchdowns their final collegiate season are being over-hyped and over-drafted. The second idea I had was that maybe these QB's are warranting the increased attention of opposing teams defensive gameplans, shutting down the deep ball game. Another idea is maybe the coach feels confident in the QB to expand the playbook, getting away from a gameplan of either short dumpoffs or long bombs. Yet another idea is maybe the more proficient a QB is in the redzone, the better that bodes for his nfl success.

I didn't do every QB from every draft class, I just went down the adp list and then also went back and included all the 1st round QB's from the past 10 years or so. So, it's possible that with the complete data set it might look a bit different. But I do plan on going back and adding at least all the 1st and 2nd round draft picks for the last 10 years or so, and probably the 3rd if i have time.



***Final Season Percentage (2nd to final season percentage)***
So as an example, 46% of Patrick Mahomes passing touchdowns came from outside the redzone during his final collegiate season, which is less than his previous collegiate season in which 61% of his passing touchdowns came from outside the redzone.

Quarterbacks that decreased the amount of long touchdowns in their final collegiate season
Josh Allen - 56% (64%)
Jordan Love 50% (56%)
Baker Mayfield 47% (63%)
Patrick Mahomes - 46% (61%)
Johnny Manziel 46% (50%)
Joe Burrow 45% (69%)
Justin Herbert 44% (55%)
CJ Stroud 44% (57%)
Derek Carr 40% (49%)
DeSean Watson 39% (69%)
Brock Purdy 37% (42%)
Jared Goff 37% (49%)
Dak Prescott 34% (52%)
Bryce Young 34% (51%)
Russell Wilson 27% (32%)
Andrew Luck 27% (41%)
Will Levis 26% (42%)

Rookies
Michael Penix 47% (55%)

- Manziel is the outlier here, and we can probably chalk that up to him being an alcoholic. But we'll see how Levis and Young do in the future.



Quarterbacks that had little to no change in their percentage (within 2%)
Drew Lock 57% (57%)
Kenny Pickett 48% (46%)
Jameis Winston 48% (50%)
Geno Smith 48% (48%)
Desmond Ridder 47% (47%)
Justin Fields 45% (44%)
Matt Corral 40% (41%)
Kirk Cousins 40% (40%)


- Kind of a mixed bag in this group. Roughly half have had a good stretch of being a mostly competent starter in the NFL.



Quarterbacks that increased the amount of long touchdowns in their final collegiate season
Tua Tagovailoa 67% (60%)
Malik Willis 59% (50%)
Paxton Lynch 57% (36%)
Lamar Jackson 56% (40%)
Daniel Jones 55% (50%)
Marcus Mariota 55% (32%)
Trevor Lawrence 54% (50%)
Zach Wilson 51% (45%)
Teddy Bridgewater 48% (44%)
Blake Bortles 48% (28%)
Sam Darnold 42% (29%)

Rookies
Jayden Daniels 63% (47%)
Drake Maye 58% (37%)
Caleb Williams 57% (26%)
JJ McCarthy 50% (41%)
Bo Nix 40% (31%)

- There are some good Qb's in the group but most of them are ultimately weren't very good. Lamar has been great of course but in terms of his passing he's been quite average for the most part.



Inconclusive (Quarterbacks without 2 full seasons back to back to compare)
Kyler Murray 55%
Mac Jones 54%
Jalen Hurts – 47% (Also 47% 2 years prior on different team)
Mitchell Trubisky 47%
Anthony Richardson 47%
Ryan Tannehill 44%
Josh Rosen 42%

- Kind of a mixed bag with this group as well

[Ice]

Not sure its a quantifiable metric but it is interesting.

What constitutes a long Touchdown? Are you looking only at TD's actually caught in the end zone given a 5 yard pass could result in an 80 yard TD which would skew a result I would think.

In the pros QB's barely have time so a five step drop and release is about all they get regardless of arm strength and those pesky hash marks really change the pro game vs college.

My guess is line play is by far the biggest difference for QB's as it relates to this analysis.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Not sure its a quantifiable metric but it is interesting.

What constitutes a long Touchdown? Are you looking only at TD's actually caught in the end zone given a 5 yard pass could result in an 80 yard TD which would skew a result I would think.

In the pros QB's barely have time so a five step drop and release is about all they get regardless of arm strength and those pesky hash marks really change the pro game vs college.

My guess is line play is by far the biggest difference for QB's as it relates to this analysis.

A "long touchdown" is a passing touchdown that originates from outside the redzone.

I thought so too, at first, that different coaching philosophies or different levels of talent on the team could be making the difference. But it doesn't seem likely considering the results.

But like I said, I have to go back and include all the rest of the Qb's from at least round 2, and hopefully round 3, to get the full picture. I'm pretty sure I have all the 1st round Qb's included, if I missed any let me know.

Edit: I should mention that when you start going back more than 10-15 years it gets dicey if this data was recorded or not. Also players from small schools the data is not always recorded.

[Sriracha]

Very interesting.

Intuitively it makes a lot of sense.

While people salivate over the 60 yard bombs those throws make up a minuscule piece of the passing pie.

In the redzone with a condensed field the margin for error with timing and accuracy become much tighter and is more comparable to the NFL game.

[Anteaters]

Very interesting.

Intuitively it makes a lot of sense.

While people salivate over the 60 yard bombs those throws make up a minuscule piece of the passing pie.

In the redzone with a condensed field the margin for error with timing and accuracy become much tighter and is more comparable to the NFL game.

++
Agree with all of this, and ...

Long TDs *might* also be attributable more to a great college WR or scheming, than to the QB. Which would mean we (the collective we) who give bonus points for longer TDs (or even give equal points to all TDs) end up overvaluing some college QBs. Because if longer TDs are more often due to WRs/scheme, we should maybe not factor them at all into evaluating college QBs for the NFL.

Maybe it's like a college WR who catches all his passes on bombs in broken coverage, but only excels in one or two basic routes. He won't be able to transition to the pros (and be successful) with a limited route tree, no wiggle, not great hands, and average speed for a WR in the NFL. We see it every year with WRs and have deduced reasons why some guys ultimately fail. This could be a similar way to better predict which rookie QBs will fall behind.

Nice catch, DeLorean. (not much pun intended)

[Jigga94]

Interesting and makes sense. I want to see Trey Lance's numbers in this study

[Shcritters]

I’m with the poster above who said that red zone passing TDs take more nuance and are likely more representative of the NFL.

How does Caleb stack through the years, and how does he compare to Kyler? That system can make it hard to determine skill vs scheme.

[Bronco Billy]

There could be multiple reasons for this - surrounding cast getting better around them, change in coaching philosophy, etc

But I like your thoughts that a lot of it having to do with the QB maturing as a player and learning the value of extended drives as opposed to trying to get everything in one bite.

Long drives with lots of plays are masterful. They are useful in applying stress on the other team in so many ways. You wear out the other team’s D as they are on the field for a long time, you keep your own D fresh and have more time between drives to plot ways to wreck the other team’s O, the psychological impact to the other D as they just can’t find a way to get you off the field and frustration from not getting critical stops, burning up game clock, and instilling a sense of urgency in the opposing O/QB that because his D can’t stop you that they have to score more to keep up.

Long drives are things of beauty. There are so many factors that can derail a drive - a turnover, one or more penalties, a bad decision on a run or throw that wastes downs, the compression of the field as you get into the red zone. Long grinding drives are all about execution, physically dominating your opponent, and demoralizing the D. The really good QBs understand the value of pounding the opponent down the field and have the talent, skills and ability to pull it off. They get that it has so much greater impact on the game than the long kill shot and can pull it off. It’s about becoming more of a QB and less of just a thrower. That mentality carrying over to the next level is huge.

[TheTroll]

How does this differ from air yards? I mean there is a 50 yd bomb for a TD and a 10 yd slant with 40 YAC. Both equal a 50 yd TD but the later is much more common.

[brward]

I’m with the poster above who said that red zone passing TDs take more nuance and are likely more representative of the NFL.

How does Caleb stack through the years, and how does he compare to Kyler? That system can make it hard to determine skill vs scheme.

I agree with this sentiment as well. There's less field to defend in the redzone so QBs need to make better reads and throw with more anticipation.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Great insights everyone. I think you guys hit all the main points. It's likely one of, all of, or some sort of combination between these 3 things;

1) The Quarterback could be improving on his ability to drive down the field and get to the redzone in the first place
2) The Quarterback could be improving on his ability to convert once he's in the redzone, which is a more compact and challenging part of the field.
3) The Quarterback could be improving on his mindset to engage in long, clock-killing drives, wearing down the defense.

Interesting and makes sense. I want to see Trey Lance's numbers in this study

Ha! I was too. I looked but I'm using espn for these splits and they didn't have Lance's college splits on there.

[Bronco Billy]

BTW, great research (as usual), lmao @ the Manziel comment, and man this does not look very good for this draft class.

[81-]

Curious where you pull the data from and if it includes alot of manual keying.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Curious where you pull the data from and if it includes alot of manual keying.

Just getting it from ESPN.com, go to player splits, NCAA. Just doing this manually.

[81-]

Curious where you pull the data from and if it includes alot of manual keying.

Just getting it from ESPN.com, go to player splits, NCAA. Just doing this manually.

Shame you can't pull large data sets at once. You could do some serious damage.

Thanks for all that you do. Always some good stuff in there