George Pickens, where did we go wrong?

[Jigga94]

Fans on Arthur Smith’s own team rejoiced when he was fired.

Arrow up for Pickens

It's almost like people completely forgot about how much frustration there was in ATL the last few years

[Anteaters]

Pickens isn't AJB though... seriously just post what you think Pickens stat line and WR finish will be. He's likely a backend WR2 at best depending on how many TD he gets

Again, if you think Pickens lacks sufficient ability and skill to be a T18WR then that's what you think. You're basing that solely on your opinion of what you think his "talent" is. I can't point out a specific way for you to recognize Pickens' talent if you find him essentially lacking.

You've discounted the improvement at QB. You've discounted the higher target% he's likely to receive with the team's former WR1 no longer on the team. Despite facts I presented that prove his new OC leans toward a pass-centric offense when he has an adequate QB, you say the play calling will be a net-negative for Pickens potential.

Honestly, there's nothing to debate with you about this. Your mind is made up.

But this is the beauty of fantasy football. We can just wing it and go with our gut if that's what we want to do - and no one can prove you're wrong in offseason. The differences in opinions makes for great trade opportunities.

[Anteaters]

It's almost like people completely forgot about how bad the QBs were in ATL the last two years.

T,FTFY

[Cameron Giles]

Fans on Arthur Smith’s own team rejoiced when he was fired.

Arrow up for Pickens

It's almost like people completely forgot about how much frustration there was in ATL the last few years

Arthur Smith Offenses Ranked by Passing Attempts:

2019: 31st
2020: 30th
2021: 19th
2022: 31st
2023: 25th

Highest WR/TE Fantasy Finish in an Arthur Smith offense (Total)

2019: AJ Brown - WR21
2020: AJ Brown - WR12
2021: Kyle Pitts - WR35 (TE6)
2022: Drake London - WR31
2023: Drake London - WR37

Unless someone thinks Pickens is as good as A.J. Brown, I think it's fair to expect Pickens to be a mid-range WR3 to a back-end WR2 at best next year.

[Jigga94]

Pickens isn't AJB though... seriously just post what you think Pickens stat line and WR finish will be. He's likely a backend WR2 at best depending on how many TD he gets

Again, if you think Pickens lacks sufficient ability and skill to be a T18WR then that's what you think. You're basing that solely on your opinion of what you think his "talent" is. I can't point out a specific way for you to recognize Pickens' talent if you find him essentially lacking.

You've discounted the improvement at QB. You've discounted the higher target% he's likely to receive with the team's former WR1 no longer on the team. Despite facts I presented that prove his new OC leans toward a pass-centric offense when he has an adequate QB, you say the play calling will be a net-negative for Pickens potential.

Honestly, there's nothing to debate with you about this. Your mind is made up.

But this is the beauty of fantasy football. We can just wing it and go with our gut if that's what we want to do - and no one can prove you're wrong in offseason. The differences in opinions makes for great trade opportunities.

I'm still waiting for you to provide a stat line or WR finish for Pickens. It's going to be funny when it's not far off what I think he will do

[murphysxm]

You've discounted the improvement at QB. You've discounted the higher target% he's likely to receive with the team's former WR1 no longer on the team.

While you also discount all the facts on the other side of the argument because you have made your mind up.

[Anteaters]

Fans on Arthur Smith’s own team rejoiced when he was fired.

Arrow up for Pickens

It's almost like people completely forgot about how much frustration there was in ATL the last few years

Arthur Smith Offenses Ranked by Passing Attempts:

2019: 31st
2020: 30th
2021: 19th
2022: 31st
2023: 25th

Highest WR/TE Fantasy Finish in an Arthur Smith offense (Total)

2019: AJ Brown - WR21
2020: AJ Brown - WR12
2021: Kyle Pitts - WR35 (TE6)
2022: Drake London - WR31
2023: Drake London - WR37

Unless someone thinks Pickens is as good as A.J. Brown, I think it's fair to expect Pickens to be a mid-range WR3 to a back-end WR2 at best next year.

What's very insightful in (and behind) those numbers is how Vrabel's teams were run-centric before Smith and run-centric after Smith. Further, that in Smith's lone season where he was in complete control of designing an offense (without a HC's input on what type of offense he wanted) AND where he had a QB who processed quickly (Ryan), Smith passed almost at league average.

I might be completely wrong here, but I trust my process. I used to make my living analyzing cause and effect, changing for different factors, and such. Not in sports, but in business. To me, it's obvious that Smith is a better than average play caller and has a very analytical mind. He didn't choose his QBs the past two seasons, but he designed the best possible offense for their (lack of) skills. I think Smith is going to take advantage of what he has in Pittsburgh. In Russ, he has the best processor+skill QB he's ever had.

Yeah, Mike will pound the ball. But I think Arthur will be able to take advantage of Russ's brain and create a much better passing offense than Pittsburgh has seen since before Ben declined.

It's going to be interesting to see how this goes.

[Anteaters]

You've discounted the improvement at QB. You've discounted the higher target% he's likely to receive with the team's former WR1 no longer on the team.

While you also discount all the facts on the other side of the argument because you have made your mind up.

What's the other side? I've seen three things.
1) Pickens is not good enough to be a T18WR.
2) Arthur Smith is so bad no receiver can have a good fantasy season with him ... except for three seasons with AJB and Pitts' rookie season with a good QB ... but other than that Arthur Smith is terrible for receivers.
3) Russ Wilson is not enough of an improvement of the horrific Pickett to make much of a difference in Pickens' production.

That's it. Those appear to be the other side. I'm okay with the first one. As I said, if someone simply doesn't think Pickens is good enough no matter the situation, that's a personal opinion and there's nothing more to be said about. The second one, I'll push back on and be happy to wait for the season to play out. The third one is just plain wrong.

[Ice]

Pickens should be ecstatic this year. Wilson's average pass before it was caught last year was 3.8 yards; That's an entire 1/10th of a yard more than Pickett managed last year.

So Pickens is the underneath guy?

Exactly!

Option 1 Run the Ball
Option 2 Run the Ball
Option 3 Pickens gets read 1 50% of the time (Sounds a lot like a WR 2 in fantasy some weeks.)

Odds that Steelers vault from 9th in rushing attempts last year to top 3 in attempts this year.

98%

[Jigga94]

You've discounted the improvement at QB. You've discounted the higher target% he's likely to receive with the team's former WR1 no longer on the team.

While you also discount all the facts on the other side of the argument because you have made your mind up.

What's the other side? I've seen three things.
1) Pickens is not good enough to be a T18WR.
2) Arthur Smith is so bad no receiver can have a good fantasy season with him ... except for three seasons with AJB and Pitts' rookie season with a good QB ... but other than that Arthur Smith is terrible for receivers.
3) Russ Wilson is not enough of an improvement of the horrific Pickett to make much of a difference in Pickens' production.

That's it. Those appear to be the other side. I'm okay with the first one. As I said, if someone simply doesn't think Pickens is good enough no matter the situation, that's a personal opinion and there's nothing more to be said about. The second one, I'll push back on and be happy to wait for the season to play out. The third one is just plain wrong.

Talk about a strawman

[Jigga94]

This is gonna be the new Gabe Davis thread isn't it?

[FantasyFreak]

This is gonna be the new Gabe Davis thread isn't it?

Pickens with Josh Allen would be something, I'll say that.

[FantasyFreak]

This is gonna be the new Gabe Davis thread isn't it?

Pickens with Josh Allen would be something, I'll say that.

I'll give a prediction for this year. Assuming 17 games played, of course.

78/1280/8

[Anteaters]

This is gonna be the new Gabe Davis thread isn't it?

Not really. There's not a serious comparison to be made between Gabe and George. Gabe was a case of some talent and a lot of hope he could improve enough to be more than marginally useful. In George's case, he's already proven to be capable of more production than Gabe has delivered in twice the time.

Gabe's best year was 836yds and 7TDs. His first two seasons were below 600yds. His value was always supplemented by TDs, which a lot of fantasy analysts call a uncertain variable.

George's rookie season (his "worst" season) was 801yds and 4TDs. Last year, George had 1140yds.

Not to mention Gabe has never had as many receptions as George's least productive season. George had a 100+ target year already, but Gabe never has. George averages about a 60% catch percentage, catching passes from crap QBs. Gabe is under 55% catching passes from one of the fantasy football's favorite QBs.

There's no comparison.

If George increased his TDs by 5 over 2024, he would have been overall WR13-15 in many leagues. Assuming a relatively small bump in targets/receptions/yards and a positive regression in TD receptions, and George is easily a T18WR. Anything more than a relatively small bump, and he rises higher.

It doesn't make sense to put these guys in the same bucket.

OTOH, yeah, maybe this thread will turn out to be as contentious as that one.

[Anteaters]

This is gonna be the new Gabe Davis thread isn't it?

Pickens with Josh Allen would be something, I'll say that.

++

Conversely, Gabe with Pickett would be Scary Movie 8.

Funny enough, I just found this thread about a Gabe:George swap
viewtopic.php?p=2106756&hilit=Gabe#p2106756

What I said back in 2022 before Pickens had played one game in the NFL ...

I think Pickens has a higher ceiling and could be a special fantasy producer ... but because he hasn't proven anything yet, Pickens' floor is he might be a total bust.

Just for fun, here's what a couple of other DLF forum regulars said

I would smash Pickens over Davis. Pickens could be a difference maker, Davis will not be. I'm betting on the upside of this player, he COULD be the WR1 in that offense in the future. I don't see that for Davis.

Pickens has proper elite upside as a self-contained asset. An actual #1 WR, something Gabriel Davis will never be as long as Diggs is around.

It's Pickens all day and not close, for me.

Pickens looks the real deal

This blast from the past has been brought to you by Fans For George Pickens. The line forms around the right side.