George Pickens, where did we go wrong?

[TheTroll]

Pickens should be ecstatic this year. Wilson's average pass before it was caught last year was 3.8 yards; That's an entire 1/10th of a yard more than Pickett managed last year.

So Pickens is the underneath guy?

[FantasyFreak]

I don't see the situation being that much better than last year to just assume Pickens vaults up to the next tier. I think it will be more of the same and probably more volatile. Staying away from Arthur Smith and Fields/Russ

It's not really an assumption. He's got a (albeit slight) QB upgrade, and lost the biggest target hog on the team. He's in line for more targets, with a slightly better QB situation. Again, not saying he's going up a tier, but he will have the opportunity to improve on his numbers from last year.

[Jigga94]

I don't see the situation being that much better than last year to just assume Pickens vaults up to the next tier. I think it will be more of the same and probably more volatile. Staying away from Arthur Smith and Fields/Russ

It's not really an assumption. He's got a (albeit slight) QB upgrade, and lost the biggest target hog on the team. He's in line for more targets, with a slightly better QB situation. Again, not saying he's going up a tier, but he will have the opportunity to improve on his numbers from last year.

Everyone has opportunity to improve on last year. The QB situation is hardly something to factor in when it's trash to slightly better than trash. I guess I just don't get the debate. Everyone seems to agree he's likely still a WR3 in a bad passing offense. Unless you think he starts working out of the slot/underneath more, Diontae leaving is going to give someone else a boost.

70/1200/6 seems fine, but that's still backend WR2 status. And I think he will be frustrating to rely on as anything other than a flex

[Anteaters]

While we're discussing the 2022-23 seasons of various QBs, it might be helpful to have some, you know, actual statistical evidence.

2022 & 2023 stats, averaged and extrapolated to one 17 game season
Russ - 3736yds, 24TDs, 11INT
Pickett - 3042yds, 9TDs, 9INT

Naw. Not much difference between these two guys.
Just a 22% increase in yards and a 166% increase in TDs.

Even without Diontae being elsewhere, it's kind of hard to imagine a scenario where Pickens' QB situation improves this much, yet he produces less than last season.

Again, this isn't about Russ being the superQB of 2024. This is about moving from the 2nd worst starting QB in the league (thank you Ridder) to a guy who is at least average.

[murphysxm]

I don't see the situation being that much better than last year to just assume Pickens vaults up to the next tier. I think it will be more of the same and probably more volatile. Staying away from Arthur Smith and Fields/Russ

It's not really an assumption. He's got a (albeit slight) QB upgrade, and lost the biggest target hog on the team. He's in line for more targets, with a slightly better QB situation. Again, not saying he's going up a tier, but he will have the opportunity to improve on his numbers from last year.

The team has given every indication that they are running the ball as a 1st and 2nd team option. I do think it is an assumption his that his situation has improved.

[Cameron Giles]

I don't see the situation being that much better than last year to just assume Pickens vaults up to the next tier. I think it will be more of the same and probably more volatile. Staying away from Arthur Smith and Fields/Russ

It's not really an assumption. He's got a (albeit slight) QB upgrade, and lost the biggest target hog on the team. He's in line for more targets, with a slightly better QB situation. Again, not saying he's going up a tier, but he will have the opportunity to improve on his numbers from last year.

The team has given every indication that they are running the ball as a 1st and 2nd team option. I do think it is an assumption his that his situation has improved.

It will be interesting to see how Smith creates some rhythm and high percentage looks for Pickens. Especially since he just did not do that for London or Pitts.

[Jigga94]

While we're discussing the 2022-23 seasons of various QBs, it might be helpful to have some, you know, actual statistical evidence.

2022 & 2023 stats, averaged and extrapolated to one 17 game season
Russ - 3736yds, 24TDs, 11INT
Pickett - 3042yds, 9TDs, 9INT

Naw. Not much difference between these two guys.
Just a 22% increase in yards and a 166% increase in TDs.

Even without Diontae being elsewhere, it's kind of hard to imagine a scenario where Pickens' QB situation improves this much, yet he produces less than last season.

Again, this isn't about Russ being the superQB of 2024. This is about moving from the 2nd worst starting QB in the league (thank you Ridder) to a guy who is at least average.

Russ was still bottom half of the league last year in most per game stats. Yes, Pickett is awful, but why do we care if the QB situation goes from awful to just bad?

Now lets look at Arthur Smith offenses, which are usually top half of the league in rushing and bottom half in passing. The last 2 years, he failed to have a single pass catcher over 1000 yards. The 2 years prior, it was Pitts and AJB in TEN just barely eclipsing the 1k yards mark. I have Pickens a step or 3 below both of them talent wise.

Not to mention, the Steelers just went heavy on OL in the draft. They're telling you what they want to do in that offense.

Maybe Pickens goes 70/1200/12 and catches a ton of TD. I just don't see it

[Cameron Giles]

While we're discussing the 2022-23 seasons of various QBs, it might be helpful to have some, you know, actual statistical evidence.

2022 & 2023 stats, averaged and extrapolated to one 17 game season
Russ - 3736yds, 24TDs, 11INT
Pickett - 3042yds, 9TDs, 9INT

Naw. Not much difference between these two guys.
Just a 22% increase in yards and a 166% increase in TDs.

Even without Diontae being elsewhere, it's kind of hard to imagine a scenario where Pickens' QB situation improves this much, yet he produces less than last season.

Again, this isn't about Russ being the superQB of 2024. This is about moving from the 2nd worst starting QB in the league (thank you Ridder) to a guy who is at least average.

EPA-DB / Y/A / Passer Rating / aDOT / QBR

Russell Wilson: .01 / 6.9 / 98.9 / 7.2 / 50.7
Justin Fields: -.02 / 6.9 / 86.3 / 8.0 / 46.1
Kenny Pickett: -.06 / 6.4 / 81.7 / 7.1 / 38.1

When you compare Wilson to Pickett and Fields, he looks a lot better.

But, when you think about Wilson in isolation, he's still posting a lot of key numbers that are way below average for an NFL starting QB. Comparing him to players who should be holding a Surface Pro isn't helpful

Wilson is better than Pickett, but not meaningfully. And whatever difference that is, having Arthur Smith as the OC on a team that does not have a very talented skill position group negates a lot of it.

[Anteaters]

While we're discussing the 2022-23 seasons of various QBs, it might be helpful to have some, you know, actual statistical evidence.

2022 & 2023 stats, averaged and extrapolated to one 17 game season
Russ - 3736yds, 24TDs, 11INT
Pickett - 3042yds, 9TDs, 9INT

Naw. Not much difference between these two guys.
Just a 22% increase in yards and a 166% increase in TDs.

Even without Diontae being elsewhere, it's kind of hard to imagine a scenario where Pickens' QB situation improves this much, yet he produces less than last season.

Again, this isn't about Russ being the superQB of 2024. This is about moving from the 2nd worst starting QB in the league (thank you Ridder) to a guy who is at least average.

EPA-DB / Y/A / Passer Rating / aDOT / QBR

Russell Wilson: .01 / 6.9 / 98.9 / 7.2 / 50.7
Justin Fields: -.02 / 6.9 / 86.3 / 8.0 / 46.1
Kenny Pickett: -.06 / 6.4 / 81.7 / 7.1 / 38.1

When you compare Wilson to Pickett and Fields, he looks a lot better.

But, when you think about Wilson in isolation, he's still posting a lot of key numbers that are way below average for an NFL starting QB. Comparing him to players who should be holding a clipboard isn't helpful

But that's my point in a nutshell. Russ doesn't have to be above average for Pickens to have a good chance to outproduce his 2023 stats.

Fields was not a better-than-average QB in 2023, yet he supported a WR6 season for DJM. AOC helped give Devante Adams a WR10 season. Minshew was largely responsible for giving Pittman a WR13 season. We can go on and on, year after year. There are many examples of average (or slightly worse than average) QBs supporting T18WR seasons.

The bottom line is a WR does not need a T10QB to produce a T18WR season. A WR simply needs a QB who isn't at the complete bottom trash level of NFL QBs. Pickett was complete trash level. Russ is not. And as you said, compared to Pickett, Russ looks a LOT better.

Thus, there is logical reason to foresee a runway for Pickens to improve upon his 2023 statistics.

[Jigga94]

While we're discussing the 2022-23 seasons of various QBs, it might be helpful to have some, you know, actual statistical evidence.

2022 & 2023 stats, averaged and extrapolated to one 17 game season
Russ - 3736yds, 24TDs, 11INT
Pickett - 3042yds, 9TDs, 9INT

Naw. Not much difference between these two guys.
Just a 22% increase in yards and a 166% increase in TDs.

Even without Diontae being elsewhere, it's kind of hard to imagine a scenario where Pickens' QB situation improves this much, yet he produces less than last season.

Again, this isn't about Russ being the superQB of 2024. This is about moving from the 2nd worst starting QB in the league (thank you Ridder) to a guy who is at least average.

EPA-DB / Y/A / Passer Rating / aDOT / QBR

Russell Wilson: .01 / 6.9 / 98.9 / 7.2 / 50.7
Justin Fields: -.02 / 6.9 / 86.3 / 8.0 / 46.1
Kenny Pickett: -.06 / 6.4 / 81.7 / 7.1 / 38.1

When you compare Wilson to Pickett and Fields, he looks a lot better.

But, when you think about Wilson in isolation, he's still posting a lot of key numbers that are way below average for an NFL starting QB. Comparing him to players who should be holding a clipboard isn't helpful

But that's my point in a nutshell. Russ doesn't have to be above average for Pickens to have a good chance to outproduce his 2023 stats.

Fields was not a better-than-average QB in 2023, yet he supported a WR6 season for DJM. AOC helped give Devante Adams a WR10 season. Minshew was largely responsible for giving Pittman a WR13 season. We can go on and on, year after year. There are many examples of average (or slightly worse than average) QBs supporting T18WR seasons.

The bottom line is a WR does not need a T10QB to produce a T18WR season. A WR simply needs a QB who isn't at the complete bottom trash level of NFL QBs. Pickett was complete trash level. Russ is not. And as you said, compared to Pickett, Russ looks a LOT better.

Thus, there is logical reason to foresee a runway for Pickens to improve upon his 2023 statistics.

Except, Pickens hasn't proven he can perform like an Elite WR, like the ones you are comparing him to here.

Also, Arthur Smith

Fill in the blank. Pickens finishes as WR _ in PPR

[Cameron Giles]

But that's my point in a nutshell. Russ doesn't have to be above average for Pickens to have a good chance to outproduce his 2023 stats.

Fields was not a better-than-average QB in 2023, yet he supported a WR6 season for DJM. AOC helped give Devante Adams a WR10 season. Minshew was largely responsible for giving Pittman a WR13 season. We can go on and on, year after year. There are many examples of average (or slightly worse than average) QBs supporting T18WR seasons.

The bottom line is a WR does not need a T10QB to produce a T18WR season. A WR simply needs a QB who isn't at the complete bottom trash level of NFL QBs. Pickett was complete trash level. Russ is not. And as you said, compared to Pickett, Russ looks a LOT better.

Thus, there is logical reason to foresee a runway for Pickens to improve upon his 2023 statistics.

If Pickens makes the jump that those players made, then he can absolutely have a huge season even with Fields or Wilson behind center.

But, even though he did improve last year, he's not quite the WR caliber like the players you just named. We've seen DJ Moore produce with trash QB after trash QB. Davante Adams is a 1st Ballot HOF. Michael Pittman is chronically underrated.

Pickens definitely made improvements last year, but there's still a ways to go before he gets that type of benefit of the doubt.

[Anteaters]

But that's my point in a nutshell. Russ doesn't have to be above average for Pickens to have a good chance to outproduce his 2023 stats.

Fields was not a better-than-average QB in 2023, yet he supported a WR6 season for DJM. AOC helped give Devante Adams a WR10 season. Minshew was largely responsible for giving Pittman a WR13 season. We can go on and on, year after year. There are many examples of average (or slightly worse than average) QBs supporting T18WR seasons.

The bottom line is a WR does not need a T10QB to produce a T18WR season. A WR simply needs a QB who isn't at the complete bottom trash level of NFL QBs. Pickett was complete trash level. Russ is not. And as you said, compared to Pickett, Russ looks a LOT better.

Thus, there is logical reason to foresee a runway for Pickens to improve upon his 2023 statistics.

If Pickens makes the jump that those players made, then he can absolutely have a huge season even with Fields or Wilson behind center.

But, even though he did improve last year, he's not quite the WR caliber like the players you just named. We've seen DJ Moore produce with trash QB after trash QB. Davante Adams is a 1st Ballot HOF. Michael Pittman is chronically underrated.

Pickens definitely made improvements last year, but there's still a ways to go before he gets that type of benefit of the doubt.

Except, Pickens hasn't proven he can perform like an Elite WR, like the ones you are comparing him to here.

This argument, I can understand better than the other reasons listed for saying Pickens won't improve upon his 2023 statistics.

If someone believes Pickens is a bum, then no more needs to be said. I'm not saying you two think Pickens is an out-and-out bum, but your statements above indicate you think Pickens is not going to ever be capable of producing a T18WR season. I can't debate that with you, because you've taken gauge of his talent and found it lacking. Fair enough.

Trying to discuss situation and the relative merits of QBs (as it relates to helping support a T18WR season) is something I can wrap my debate around. Trying to discuss pure skill and ability is kind of like choosing your favorite color. I can't tell you why green is better than red if you like red.

I got confused by all the other reasons detractors listed for why Pickens won't produce higher stats in 2024. If you see a lack of skill and ability, then you see a lack of ability and skill. Nuff said.

[Anteaters]

Also, Arthur Smith

Fill in the blank. Pickens finishes as WR _ in PPR

The Arthur Smith complaints are kind of lazy logic in my opinion.

In 2020 AJB was WR12 in an Arthur Smith offense with a barely-average QB. If not for injuries, his 2021 season would have put him at WR19. He was WR20 in his rookie season in 2021.

Again, it's not Arthur Smith's system that was to blame in Atlanta the past two seasons. It was the horrific QB play in Atlanta. In 2021 when Atlanta had at-least average QB play by Matt Ryan, Pitts was TE6 and Ryan threw for 4000yds. That season, Atlanta attempted 573 pass and RBs rushed the ball 349 times.

Facts are facts. And the facts prove that when Arthur Smith has an adequate QB, he doesn't lean toward a run-heavy offense.

In 2022, with horrific QB performance (Mariota+Ridder), ATL attempted 415 passes and RBs rushed the ball 454 times AND QBs ran the ball an additional 101 times, for a total of 555 rushing attempts. Thus, in 2022 it is true to say ATL was a rush-heavy team.

However, it is incorrect to label Smith a "rushing-heavy" OC. It's better to label him a wise OC who does what his QBs are best suited to do. Mariota+Ridder were extremely inaccurate and slow processors. It would have been OC-malpractice to game script a pass-centric offense with QBs like them at the helm.

Russ is a little older than his prime, but no one has ever accused him of being a slow processor or inaccurate.

Facts are facts.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Fans on Arthur Smith’s own team rejoiced when he was fired.

Arrow up for Pickens

[Jigga94]

Pickens isn't AJB though and Russ/Fields arent Matt Ryan either. FaCtS aRe FacTs

Seriously just post what you think Pickens stat line and WR finish will be. He's likely a backend WR2 at best depending on how many TD he gets