Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[Bronco Billy]

FWIW - ADP doesn't support that FF Groupthink is down on the RBs. In DLF April SF drafts four RB prospects went ahead of Charbonnet and six went ahead of Kendre Miller. Two (Brooks and Benson) are inside the top-24 at the position. I'd argue that the ADP suggests folks are overrating them.

ADP is just one data point obviously but it's a important gauge of value.

That’s awfully apples and oranges, isn’t it? You think if Brooks is drafted by IND and Benson is drafted by GB that those ADPs would stay that way? Charbonnet is currently locked into a rbbc and Miller never had much of a chance to get any traction.

Was just pointing out that as we sit today, people are valuing these guys fairly highly.

I get your point but if people were actually way down on these guys one might expect their ADP to be low and if they land well (DAL) that it would shoot up. Seems weird to me that if the prospects are "bad" that people would take them this high w/o landing spots.

It's not to suggest you're wrong. It's to point out a disconnect b/w the narrative and what happens when people pull the trigger in a draft.

Oh, I definitely could be wrong. I’m just enjoying the good discussion. Thanks!

I’m personally looking forward to my midround picks in Rds 2-4 with the RBs dropping like they’re projected to. I think there’s going to be some substantial value on the board there.

[Jrblaha]

There's no guarantees on that, though. It's just a guess. 3 RB's in this class give 3 RB2 plus years? We shall see. That's iffy. The further down the players go due to lower draft capital, the easier it is to outperform ADP, too.

The reality is, in terms of NFL evals, this is a weak RB class. Of course some may do well, but figuring that out becomes a lot harder when there's no Bijan, Gibbs, even Breece of KW9 level prospects.

There's just not a lot to get excited about in this class, in general, beyond the top of the board, but it doesn't mean none of them will be relevant. It's just projecting to be a weaker class, for FF purposes, based on their profiles and NFL evaluations, but they can obviously outperform those things.

I think the mistake would be to expect them to, because then you're putting too much value on the pick assigned to the player, at the time of the rookie draft, and not properly assessing the risk/reward of the prospects there. You don't have to use a rookie pick, you can trade it. 1.09, for example, isn't the same every year, but some people view it that way, and there may be an opportunity to move it for a more proven player, which IMO, should be explored more than some years, that's all.

Sure, I mean there’s guarantee in anything football related though. Most mocks I see have RB1 or RB2 of the class going ~1.12. And sure you could trade that pick, but for what? I’d rather the rb dart throw of RB1 or RB2 in this class (but I like the top 2 RBs <pending draft spot/capital> to be startable) than my expected RB return of trading 1.12 (1 QB)

Why does it have to be a 1 for 1 scenario? You can package picks, trade for another position etc. I'm not simply suggesting you trade 1.09 for a RB, but that it's value as a standalone pick as trade value, in the heat of rookie fever, may be better used than picking a player in that spot.

Definitely doesn’t have to be a 1for1 scenario, but then you’re introducing more variables, and making a comparison harder. Pick + X player (or more picks) can get you what? Is that being better than simply picking player(s) and keeping your X? More unknowns. We’re also talking about different picks, you’re using 1.09, and I’m using 1.12, as I think a top2 will still be there at 1.12

[81-]

Thursday Thursday Thursday!!!

[wickerkat1212]

Where I'm drafting I am probably avoiding the RBs this year. Unless Brooks/Bensen fall to 2.02 in Superflex (doubt it) I'm getting shares of Harrison and then a lot of 2nd/3rd round WR fliers. Somebody has to stick.

[mild]

Where I'm drafting I am probably avoiding the RBs this year. Unless Brooks/Bensen fall to 2.02 in Superflex (doubt it) I'm getting shares of Harrison and then a lot of 2nd/3rd round WR fliers. Somebody has to stick.

I legitimately think one of those two could fall to 2.02.

Landing spots are going to boost AND fall a lot of other guys too, not just the backs. If one of those guys goes to an RBBC with tougher comp in the 1a starter then 2.02 will be right in their wheel house probably.

[wickerkat1212]

Where I'm drafting I am probably avoiding the RBs this year. Unless Brooks/Bensen fall to 2.02 in Superflex (doubt it) I'm getting shares of Harrison and then a lot of 2nd/3rd round WR fliers. Somebody has to stick.

I legitimately think one of those two could fall to 2.02.

Landing spots are going to boost AND fall a lot of other guys too, not just the backs. If one of those guys goes to an RBBC with tougher comp in the 1a starter then 2.02 will be right in their wheel house probably.

True. And if they fall I may take one. Even the BEST RBs in this class seem to be second tier. We'll see who is there. I like both Brooks and Benson. There are some great WRs that may fall here as well. AND while I'm not big on Nix or Penix, I've seen mocks where they were still on the board at 2.02. If they get 1st round capital, for sure. Should be fun.

[tstafford]

Where I'm drafting I am probably avoiding the RBs this year. Unless Brooks/Bensen fall to 2.02 in Superflex (doubt it) I'm getting shares of Harrison and then a lot of 2nd/3rd round WR fliers. Somebody has to stick.

Landing spots are going to boost AND fall a lot of other guys too, not just the backs.

Been alluding to this for weeks. Some of the top picks are going to land badly. My guess is the FF community is going to react more strongly this year than in years past. People feel burned by JSN, Charbonnet, (even to some extent G.Wilson) and managers have become less patient as a whole - possibly rightly so. It's great to trade down, still get a guy in a particular tier and pick up some value. However the further down you trade, the more risk you take on about the impact of the draft. My guess - a couple of our favorite guys get tarnished by a bad spot and a RB jumps in to the discussion that heretofore hasn't been considered in the late first.

[Ice]

Brooks falling to the 2nd round is crazy talk IMO. He has legit 3 down potential in the NFL with tons of skill and he accelerates with ease. Very low mileage back in college but was outstanding last year prior to ACL.

His medical flag may push him to late round 2 in the NFL draft but he has late first early second round talent in the NFL and teams don't worry much about ACL's these days.

He is a diamond in the rough if he goes to a team that loves zone and has a prolific passing game. Should go mid first in SF leagues and top 5 in 1 QB leagues.

[BabyChark23]

Brooks falling to the 2nd round is crazy talk IMO. He has legit 3 down potential in the NFL with tons of skill and he accelerates with ease. Very low mileage back in college but was outstanding last year prior to ACL.

His medical flag may push him to late round 2 in the NFL draft but he has late first early second round talent in the NFL and teams don't worry much about ACL's these days.

He is a diamond in the rough if he goes to a team that loves zone and has a prolific passing game. Should go mid first in SF leagues and top 5 in 1 QB leagues.

I think in SF he starts to be in the conversation around 1.09. The Bills WR pick will push them up a bit though, so I expect him to go 1.10/1.11.

[Bronco Billy]

Brooks falling to the 2nd round is crazy talk IMO. He has legit 3 down potential in the NFL with tons of skill and he accelerates with ease. Very low mileage back in college but was outstanding last year prior to ACL.

His medical flag may push him to late round 2 in the NFL draft but he has late first early second round talent in the NFL and teams don't worry much about ACL's these days.

He is a diamond in the rough if he goes to a team that loves zone and has a prolific passing game. Should go mid first in SF leagues and top 5 in 1 QB leagues.

I’ll have to disagree. Brooks benefited from some absolutely phenomenal line play. What you ought to see when you watch him is that when he’s breaking off meaningful runs you can see O linemen destroying opponents and getting as much as 15+ yds downfield and wreaking havoc in the second and third levels.

On the rare occasions that his O line wasn’t dominating, Brooks showed very little. He couldn’t find room in skinny seams, was indecisive and hesitant, did not help his linemen by setting up blocks, and did nothing to create for himself. He’s got an annoying habit of running with a lead shoulder instead of squaring to the line that eliminates changes in direction and eliminates a lot of power. I did not see much understanding from him for zone concepts and think he’ll struggle in a zone stretch offense. He’s not a difficult tackle and doesn’t compromise D players in the open field. He gets tagged with being a patient runner, but that seems to be more of his waiting for a gaping hole to open than his understanding of letting his blocking set up from what I’ve seen.

I watched him run and felt that he was less talented than Roschon Johnson as a RB, who while limited at least was decisive and ran with power. I don’t think we’re going to see any kind of good transfer as he goes to the next level and that he’s going to really struggle when the seams get a lot narrower and he gets tracked down by backside pursuit while he waits for a gaping hole to open that never develops. I hope I’m wrong because I don’t want to see players fail, but I think his college success was predominantly due to his team and little to his talent.

[Pac_Eddy]

Thursday Thursday Thursday!!!

Draft anticipation is killing me!

This is the most important draft in a decade or two for my Vikings. If we leave Thursday without a QB of the future I'll be a wreck.

[murphysxm]

Thursday Thursday Thursday!!!

Draft anticipation is killing me!

This is the most important draft in a decade or two for my Vikings. If we leave Thursday without a QB of the future I'll be a wreck.

I'd rather leave without one than reach for the wrong one, which I think is a more realistic outcome at this point.

[Pac_Eddy]

Thursday Thursday Thursday!!!

Draft anticipation is killing me!

This is the most important draft in a decade or two for my Vikings. If we leave Thursday without a QB of the future I'll be a wreck.

I'd rather leave without one than reach for the wrong one, which I think is a more realistic outcome at this point.

I understand that point of view. If I ran an organization, I'd take a stab with one even if he wasn't the perfect fit. Build up a good team around him. If he fails, you have a good team and draft another young guy in a few years if the first one fails.

[Valhalla]

Draft anticipation is killing me!

This is the most important draft in a decade or two for my Vikings. If we leave Thursday without a QB of the future I'll be a wreck.

I'd rather leave without one than reach for the wrong one, which I think is a more realistic outcome at this point.

I understand that point of view. If I ran an organization, I'd take a stab with one even if he wasn't the perfect fit. Build up a good team around him. If he fails, you have a good team and draft another young guy in a few years if the first one fails.

*in the "Press Your Luck" game show "no whammys" chant

No Ponders no Ponders no Ponders no Ponders STOP!

[Mike11]

I don't think it's crazy to assume if Dallas goes Brooks or Benson in round 2 you will start to see them off the board after the big 3 receivers and in 2QB top 3/4 QBs + Bowers. In non-TEP we can argue about pure talent and opportunity but look at what Kyren did this year with that backfield all to himself. Would you rather own Kyren Williams or Tee Higgins right now (I'm thinking AD or BTJ are maybe comparable value plays to Higgins)? It's closer than people would've thought 6 months ago I think.

For longevity I'd lean WR but that's easy to say before we see draft capital or landing spots. I have a feeling either Brian Thomas Jr or AD Mitchell will get a good landing spot and we'll see the big 3 receivers, Bowers, 1 more WR and maybe the top 3 QBs go off before any RB but it could become a conversation for certain drafters.