Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[Bronco Billy]

I’ve been in on Caleb for forever like everyone else but I think you’ve swayed me

Not everybody else, but I will acknowledge that the perception of him right now attaches massive value.

[tstafford]

Pretty much my feelings. I see Daniels taking the typical “running QB” trajectory, where he lights it up from a fantasy perspective, as long as he stays healthy. Then, round about year three or four his coaching staff goes, “We gotta transition him into more of a passer or he’s going to get killed!”, and then he descends into fantasy mediocrity…

I wonder if for FF purposes comparing CW to Daniels is all that helpful. I can't imagine too many people are debating that choice.

I guess I'd be more curious about the comparison b/w Daniels and Maye. That's a decision someone will be faced with in every league. I'm waiting to see how the NFL views them before I land on it. But in the meantime, would love to hear the thoughts from the Forum.

And what if the "NFL view" is Daniels at 3 to NE and Maye "falls" all the way to 11 with the Vikings weaponry? Or the other way around?

That would be interesting for sure.

[TheTroll]

I wonder if for FF purposes comparing CW to Daniels is all that helpful. I can't imagine too many people are debating that choice.

I guess I'd be more curious about the comparison b/w Daniels and Maye. That's a decision someone will be faced with in every league. I'm waiting to see how the NFL views them before I land on it. But in the meantime, would love to hear the thoughts from the Forum.

And what if the "NFL view" is Daniels at 3 to NE and Maye "falls" all the way to 11 with the Vikings weaponry? Or the other way around?

That would be interesting for sure.

will never happen with the crazy offseason so far. I fully expect alot of movements in the first round

[Jrblaha]

And what if the "NFL view" is Daniels at 3 to NE and Maye "falls" all the way to 11 with the Vikings weaponry? Or the other way around?

That would be interesting for sure.

will never happen with the crazy offseason so far. I fully expect alot of movements in the first round

Yeah probably won’t fall to 11, but maybe Vikings trade up for Maye. If they did, and they keep Jj, I would probably have Maye as QB2

I don’t like bumping up player off of players around them as that can change, but if the QBs are somewhat close to begin with, give me the rookie with Jj

[Ruggenater]

If you want to take safer players over him because you simply -must- hit on base with your premium 1st (let's say you're in a rebuild) then I have no issues with anyone that wants to take Nabors or Marv ahead of him. Even Odunze. I get it.

Caleb is absolutely a safer pick by miles in every way. He's also far more likely to be playing in 10 years time, not even because he's -that- much bigger - but because of the playing style. There's every chance Daniels never learns how to protect himself, and gets demolished in the pros. He might just never translate as a passer, either. You accept that risk with the pick.

But if you're a team that is set to compete in a SF or 2QB - and you've somehow found yourself with a pick in the 1.04-1.07 range, and he somehow falls to you? Don't be "all out" on this guy just because you're scared of the downsides.

He's an elite rushing QB with a very good deep ball - and that's "as-is". He's going to score a -lot- of fantasy points, especially if he lands somewhere with weapons. And if he really hits, and takes the next step as a passer? He's going to help win people a lot of fantasy championships.

Pretty much my feelings. I see Daniels taking the typical “running QB” trajectory, where he lights it up from a fantasy perspective, as long as he stays healthy. Then, round about year three or four his coaching staff goes, “We gotta transition him into more of a passer or he’s going to get killed!”, and then he descends into fantasy mediocrity…

I wonder if for FF purposes comparing CW to Daniels is all that helpful. I can't imagine too many people are debating that choice.

I guess I'd be more curious about the comparison b/w Daniels and Maye. That's a decision someone will be faced with in every league. I'm waiting to see how the NFL views them before I land on it. But in the meantime, would love to hear the thoughts from the Forum.

Lamar is the wrong comp for Daniels. Lamar’s open field running ability, including his ability to avoid big hits, are unmatched. He also came out of a more pro-style system in college, and was a better passer than people gave him credit for (that gap in perception still remains for some…).

Daniels is more like RG3 (as a prospect—pre-injury). He’s athletic and a willing runner, but doesn’t have the same wiggle and is more likely to get crushed by tacklers. I see the injury concerns as the biggest red flag/risk on Daniels. He’s fine as a passer, including a nice deep ball, but he’ll have a high floor in fantasy for at least a few years thanks to his legs.

I don’t mind the Josh Allen comp for Maye, but keep in mind others in that mold have more often than not failed to overcome their weaknesses—especially the scattershot accuracy. Maye would benefit greatly from not needing to start right away, but I doubt he’s afforded that luxury. I’m very concerned that’s going to wreck his ability to develop.

I’m easily taking Daniels over Maye in fantasy drafts right now, but a New England landing spot would be tough to ignore.

[Bronco Billy]

Patriots | NE open to trading back, comfortable with QBs
Thu Apr 18, 12:33 PM

New England Patriots general manager Eliot Wolf told the media Thursday, April 18, that they are willing to trade back from the No. 3 overall pick but that they also feel comfortable taking a quarterback with the selection.

QB
BRISSETT, JACOBY 16/3 Zappe, Bailey 22/4 Rourke, Nathan W/Jax

Looks like I’m still holding my Rourke ticket for a while longer…

[tstafford]

Patriots | NE open to trading back, comfortable with QBs
Thu Apr 18, 12:33 PM

New England Patriots general manager Eliot Wolf told the media Thursday, April 18, that they are willing to trade back from the No. 3 overall pick but that they also feel comfortable taking a quarterback with the selection.

QB
BRISSETT, JACOBY 16/3 Zappe, Bailey 22/4 Rourke, Nathan W/Jax

Looks like I’m still holding my Rourke ticket for a while longer…

That's not how I read it. I read it as they are comfortable that there is are rookie QBs worth taking at 1.03 but they are also open to trading back. Not that they are comfortable with their current QBs.

[Valhalla]

Patriots | NE open to trading back, comfortable with QBs
Thu Apr 18, 12:33 PM

New England Patriots general manager Eliot Wolf told the media Thursday, April 18, that they are willing to trade back from the No. 3 overall pick but that they also feel comfortable taking a quarterback with the selection.

QB
BRISSETT, JACOBY 16/3 Zappe, Bailey 22/4 Rourke, Nathan W/Jax

Looks like I’m still holding my Rourke ticket for a while longer…

That's not how I read it. I read it as they are comfortable that there is are rookie QBs worth taking at 1.03 but they are also open to trading back. Not that they are comfortable with their current QBs.

I read that as..."We aren't overly impressed with our options at #3 and so would trade back...but we don't want to tell anyone trying to move up that we aren't overly impressed. They've gotta pay the price for the premium QB that we don't necessarily want after all!"

A team in need of a QB, if they see a QB that they truly are impressed by, isn't likely trading out of the pick.

[Jrblaha]

Looks like I’m still holding my Rourke ticket for a while longer…

That's not how I read it. I read it as they are comfortable that there is are rookie QBs worth taking at 1.03 but they are also open to trading back. Not that they are comfortable with their current QBs.

I read that as..."We aren't overly impressed with our options at #3 and so would trade back...but we don't want to tell anyone trying to move up that we aren't overly impressed. They've gotta pay the price for the premium QB that we don't necessarily want after all!"

A team in need of a QB, if they see a QB that they truly are impressed by, isn't likely trading out of the pick.

Definitely seems possible. But for the right price idk that any rookie pick is untouchable.

[Shcritters]

Having said that, take a look at this chart.
https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1780777102825964031

Relatively close…

... to zach evans

https://x.com/ScottBarrettDFB/status/17 ... 9098208561

I stand by what I said.

[81-]

Looks like I’m still holding my Rourke ticket for a while longer…

That's not how I read it. I read it as they are comfortable that there is are rookie QBs worth taking at 1.03 but they are also open to trading back. Not that they are comfortable with their current QBs.

I read that as..."We aren't overly impressed with our options at #3 and so would trade back...but we don't want to tell anyone trying to move up that we aren't overly impressed. They've gotta pay the price for the premium QB that we don't necessarily want after all!"

A team in need of a QB, if they see a QB that they truly are impressed by, isn't likely trading out of the pick.

This. Take a true stud and wait for a better pick after you go 1-16 next year with zappie.

[tstafford]

Draft related question that doesn't actually require the results of the draft.

There seems to be a consensus around NEP being a bad landing spot for either an elite QB or WR. Is that just a simple as if they take a QB (Maye?) he's got no one to throw to and vice versa if they take a WR? Or are people seeming something more nuanced than that?

FWIW - I can't imagine NEP not taking a QB at 1.03.

[natjjohn]

Draft related question that doesn't actually require the results of the draft.

There seems to be a consensus around NEP being a bad landing spot for either an elite QB or WR. Is that just a simple as if they take a QB (Maye?) he's got no one to throw to and vice versa if they take a WR? Or are people seeming something more nuanced than that?

FWIW - I can't imagine NEP not taking a QB at 1.03.

Think that’s part of it and also, people remember how bad on offense they were plus now complete unknown with new coaching staff. Also, there’s been the majority fantasy analyst take that Maye is a bust in waiting so he seems to be being faded by most though not all.

[Bronco Billy]

Also, there’s been the majority fantasy analyst take that Maye is a bust in waiting so he seems to be being faded by most though not all.

You seem to be reading different material than I’m seeing. Maye absolutely passes the eye test and should be highly thought of if nothing else than overcoming the O line he was dealt.

[trc]

Draft related question that doesn't actually require the results of the draft.

There seems to be a consensus around NEP being a bad landing spot for either an elite QB or WR. Is that just a simple as if they take a QB (Maye?) he's got no one to throw to and vice versa if they take a WR? Or are people seeming something more nuanced than that?

FWIW - I can't imagine NEP not taking a QB at 1.03.

Think that’s part of it and also, people remember how bad on offense they were plus now complete unknown with new coaching staff. Also, there’s been the majority fantasy analyst take that Maye is a bust in waiting so he seems to be being faded by most though not all.

Does the majority really believe that?
Is it majority of the analylists you follow or is there actually someone that has pulled the data for that?