Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[mild]

There's some good Arizona State years in there for Daniels if you care to look. Definitely not "complete bum" status.

It wasn't just the 5th year.

I’m ’all-out’ on Daniels. The track record of QBs his age coming into the league is horrendous. Burrow is basically the ONLY one who has been successful out of like 10… I don’t like those odds, would rather someone else play that one out.

While that is true, the track record for QBs with his college qbr is excellent.

College QBR

All Players with (adjusted) College QBR of 94+ since 2004
Jayden Daniels
Mac Jones
Joe Burrow
Tua
Kyler Murray
Russel Wilson
Andrew Luck (93.8)

Don’t overthink it

Bingo.

If your goal is to win fantasy games over the next 4 years in 2QB or SF...

You really should be looking hard at Daniels.

Perhaps no-one else in this class has the upside to hit like he does as an elite dual threat QB. His upside is scoring like a Top 3 overall fantasy QB.

The juice is worth the squeeze.

[Hankybro21]

I’m ’all-out’ on Daniels. The track record of QBs his age coming into the league is horrendous. Burrow is basically the ONLY one who has been successful out of like 10… I don’t like those odds, would rather someone else play that one out.

While that is true, the track record for QBs with his college qbr is excellent.

College QBR

All Players with (adjusted) College QBR of 94+ since 2004
Jayden Daniels
Mac Jones
Joe Burrow
Tua
Kyler Murray
Russel Wilson
Andrew Luck (93.8)

Don’t overthink it

Bingo.

If your goal is to win fantasy games over the next 4 years in 2QB or SF...

You really should be looking hard at Daniels.

Perhaps no-one else in this class has the upside to hit like he does as an elite dual threat QB. His upside is scoring like a Top 3 overall fantasy QB.

The juice is worth the squeeze.

How close is he to Caleb for you

[mild]

How close is he to Caleb for you

If you want to take safer players over him because you simply -must- hit on base with your premium 1st (let's say you're in a rebuild) then I have no issues with anyone that wants to take Nabors or Marv ahead of him. Even Odunze. I get it.

Caleb is absolutely a safer pick by miles in every way. He's also far more likely to be playing in 10 years time, not even because he's -that- much bigger - but because of the playing style. There's every chance Daniels never learns how to protect himself, and gets demolished in the pros. He might just never translate as a passer, either. You accept that risk with the pick.

But if you're a team that is set to compete in a SF or 2QB - and you've somehow found yourself with a pick in the 1.04-1.07 range, and he somehow falls to you? Don't be "all out" on this guy just because you're scared of the downsides.

He's an elite rushing QB with a very good deep ball - and that's "as-is". He's going to score a -lot- of fantasy points, especially if he lands somewhere with weapons. And if he really hits, and takes the next step as a passer? He's going to help win people a lot of fantasy championships.

[Hankybro21]

How close is he to Caleb for you

If you want to take safer players over him because you simply -must- hit on base with your premium 1st (let's say you're in a rebuild) then I have no issues with anyone that wants to take Nabors or Marv ahead of him. Even Odunze. I get it.

Caleb is absolutely a safer pick by miles in every way. He's also far more likely to be playing in 10 years time, not even because he's -that- much bigger - but because of the playing style. There's every chance Daniels never learns how to protect himself, and gets demolished in the pros. He might just never translate as a passer, either. You accept that risk with the pick.

But if you're a team that is set to compete in a SF or 2QB - and you've somehow found yourself with a pick in the 1.04-1.07 range, and he somehow falls to you? Don't be "all out" on this guy just because you're scared of the downsides.

He's an elite rushing QB with a very good deep ball - and that's "as-is". He's going to score a -lot- of fantasy points, especially if he lands somewhere with weapons. And if he really hits, and takes the next step as a passer? He's going to help win people a lot of fantasy championships.

Awesome response thank you. I’m in a position to draft Caleb (team 2) or trade back to Daniels and pick up a couple 25 firsts in the process. I’ve been in on Caleb for forever like everyone else but I think you’ve swayed me

[mild]

Awesome response thank you. I’m in a position to draft Caleb (team 2) or trade back to Daniels and pick up a couple 25 firsts in the process. I’ve been in on Caleb for forever like everyone else but I think you’ve swayed me

I honestly think you should take Caleb if you can. I would if I had access to a pick that could get him. If Caleb hits then he's prime Aaron Rodgers, and you've got option on him for 15-20 years. He plays a style of ball that won't have an expiration date athletically-speaking, and is largely injury-proof due to the sheer arm talent. (ie. if he has a bad one, you're not worried about it impacting his overall ability to play his game the following season)

Don't succumb to the prospect fatigue.

Daniels will be a far more volatile asset. A big leg injury would bring far more concerns, for example - just like Lamar's offseasons over the last 4 years. But on his rookie contract, there's a decent chance he will also have those prime "young Lamar" years, because Daniels -loves- to scramble to rush first. There are going to be certain weeks where he puts up absolutely gaudy fantasy totals - we've seen it in College, and the upside is outrageous.

He is best viewed as a shorter-term win-now QB, rather than a longer term building block. I understand why some owners will be reticent to build around that. Just be prepared to lose fantasy matchups to him for the next little while... he has "week winner" written all over him.

Don't make that trade until we've seen landing spots, at least. If Daniels lands in NE instead of WAS or MIN... it's going to be a far rougher ride. I'll be far more bullish if he lands somewhere with weapons - because his compete window as an asset with high end rushing ability is "immediately".

[Ice]

How close is he to Caleb for you

Daniels is closer to Maye than Caleb.

Caleb is the easiest 1.1 Pick in years in the NFL and in SF Dynasty.

Maye is the 2nd best QB prospect IMO. He has a lot of Josh Allen type qualities at 6'4" 230.

He did more in his last 2 years with way less talent than Daniels in his last 2 years and was running for his life a lot with that terrible O Line this past season. Maye turns 22 in August.

I would recommend focusing on their respective middle of the field throws between Maye and Daniels. There is a stark difference and it favors Maye.

I don't dislike Daniels but he has a twig build and will struggle to maintain 200 lbs for years IMO. He is electric and has a wow factor but Maye is built for the long haul and can run well in his own right when needed.

[FantasyFreak]

How close is he to Caleb for you

Daniels is closer to Maye than Caleb.

Caleb is the easiest 1.1 Pick in years in the NFL and in SF Dynasty.

Maye is the 2nd best QB prospect IMO. He has a lot of Josh Allen type qualities at 6'4" 230.

He did more in his last 2 years with way less talent than Daniels in his last 2 years and was running for his life a lot with that terrible O Line this past season. Maye turns 22 in August.

I would recommend focusing on their respective middle of the field throws between Maye and Daniels. There is a stark difference and it favors Maye.

I don't dislike Daniels but he has a twig build and will struggle to maintain 200 lbs for years IMO. He is electric and has a wow factor but Maye is built for the long haul and can run well in his own right when needed.

Agreed.

[81-]

Saw some interesting stats today on fewer and fewer underclassman are coming out early now that they can get paid. And being at the end of the COVID 6o year seniors. The draft is going through a semisemic shift. We are due for a terrible draft. And this is the one. Maybe. Except for Daniels. I'm all in on him

[Shcritters]

How close is he to Caleb for you

If you want to take safer players over him because you simply -must- hit on base with your premium 1st (let's say you're in a rebuild) then I have no issues with anyone that wants to take Nabors or Marv ahead of him. Even Odunze. I get it.

Caleb is absolutely a safer pick by miles in every way. He's also far more likely to be playing in 10 years time, not even because he's -that- much bigger - but because of the playing style. There's every chance Daniels never learns how to protect himself, and gets demolished in the pros. He might just never translate as a passer, either. You accept that risk with the pick.

But if you're a team that is set to compete in a SF or 2QB - and you've somehow found yourself with a pick in the 1.04-1.07 range, and he somehow falls to you? Don't be "all out" on this guy just because you're scared of the downsides.

He's an elite rushing QB with a very good deep ball - and that's "as-is". He's going to score a -lot- of fantasy points, especially if he lands somewhere with weapons. And if he really hits, and takes the next step as a passer? He's going to help win people a lot of fantasy championships.

I think this is a really good take.

I only have very early 1sts (1.01 or 1.02) and then a couple 1.05’s where I will already have set QB rooms. The age metrics are working very hard against Daniels, as are the sack rate when pressured. See these stats that scream red-flag.

https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1780449232014410111

https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1780101382411895287 (I think this is supposed to say ‘most pressured QBs’, not DBs).

https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1766124928749674610

As said elsewhere, Daniels is the ultimate upside pick. If he hits he’s possibly Lamar. If he bombs he’s Justin Fields, or worse (if injured because his body can’t hold up to the style he plays).

To me it has to do with team makeup (as someone else said). If you’re in a hard rebuild then I’d lean towards picks that are higher likelihood to hit than not. If you lucked into a semi-early pick due to trade or having a down-year on an otherwise good team and are fine with the high upside/low floor pick then he’s probably a good pick. I’ve just personally seen too many of those picks bust for my taste and prefer to take a potentially slightly lower upside player with a much higher floor than one with such a wide range of outcomes with a first-half pick. If I pick high upside/low floor I usually wait until late 1st… but that’s just personal preference.

[Shcritters]

As someone who's never seen any of his tape, where are we on Jonathan Brooks. I get he was behind Bijan, but is not beating out Roschon a knock, given he's looked absolutely mediocre in the NFL?

Everything I’ve seen is that Brooks compares almost on par with Bijan from a statistical perspective at Texas. The Q is his recovery. He’ll be a year-2 riser.

Say what? Brooks doesn’t compare remotely to Bijan, stats-wise at TX or otherwise. He was the product of having an outstanding O line, much like Roschon was. I’m expecting he’s going to get exposed at the NFL level, much like Roschon has been.

Ok, I’ll admit I made a poor word choice. I should have said ‘compares favorably to Bijan’, not ‘almost on par’. Not above correcting myself when I mis-speak and could have been clearer.

Having said that, take a look at this chart.
https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1780777102825964031

Relatively close… has me looking pretty close at him as the RB1 of this class despite the injury. If he goes to a RB needy team (DAL?) he probably jumps into top 10 RB territory.

[killer_of_giants]

Having said that, take a look at this chart.
https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1780777102825964031

Relatively close…

... to zach evans

[Payton34]

How close is he to Caleb for you

If you want to take safer players over him because you simply -must- hit on base with your premium 1st (let's say you're in a rebuild) then I have no issues with anyone that wants to take Nabors or Marv ahead of him. Even Odunze. I get it.

Caleb is absolutely a safer pick by miles in every way. He's also far more likely to be playing in 10 years time, not even because he's -that- much bigger - but because of the playing style. There's every chance Daniels never learns how to protect himself, and gets demolished in the pros. He might just never translate as a passer, either. You accept that risk with the pick.

But if you're a team that is set to compete in a SF or 2QB - and you've somehow found yourself with a pick in the 1.04-1.07 range, and he somehow falls to you? Don't be "all out" on this guy just because you're scared of the downsides.

He's an elite rushing QB with a very good deep ball - and that's "as-is". He's going to score a -lot- of fantasy points, especially if he lands somewhere with weapons. And if he really hits, and takes the next step as a passer? He's going to help win people a lot of fantasy championships.

Pretty much my feelings. I see Daniels taking the typical “running QB” trajectory, where he lights it up from a fantasy perspective, as long as he stays healthy. Then, round about year three or four his coaching staff goes, “We gotta transition him into more of a passer or he’s going to get killed!”, and then he descends into fantasy mediocrity…

[tstafford]

How close is he to Caleb for you

If you want to take safer players over him because you simply -must- hit on base with your premium 1st (let's say you're in a rebuild) then I have no issues with anyone that wants to take Nabors or Marv ahead of him. Even Odunze. I get it.

Caleb is absolutely a safer pick by miles in every way. He's also far more likely to be playing in 10 years time, not even because he's -that- much bigger - but because of the playing style. There's every chance Daniels never learns how to protect himself, and gets demolished in the pros. He might just never translate as a passer, either. You accept that risk with the pick.

But if you're a team that is set to compete in a SF or 2QB - and you've somehow found yourself with a pick in the 1.04-1.07 range, and he somehow falls to you? Don't be "all out" on this guy just because you're scared of the downsides.

He's an elite rushing QB with a very good deep ball - and that's "as-is". He's going to score a -lot- of fantasy points, especially if he lands somewhere with weapons. And if he really hits, and takes the next step as a passer? He's going to help win people a lot of fantasy championships.

Pretty much my feelings. I see Daniels taking the typical “running QB” trajectory, where he lights it up from a fantasy perspective, as long as he stays healthy. Then, round about year three or four his coaching staff goes, “We gotta transition him into more of a passer or he’s going to get killed!”, and then he descends into fantasy mediocrity…

I wonder if for FF purposes comparing CW to Daniels is all that helpful. I can't imagine too many people are debating that choice.

I guess I'd be more curious about the comparison b/w Daniels and Maye. That's a decision someone will be faced with in every league. I'm waiting to see how the NFL views them before I land on it. But in the meantime, would love to hear the thoughts from the Forum.

[wickerkat1212]

If you want to take safer players over him because you simply -must- hit on base with your premium 1st (let's say you're in a rebuild) then I have no issues with anyone that wants to take Nabors or Marv ahead of him. Even Odunze. I get it.

Caleb is absolutely a safer pick by miles in every way. He's also far more likely to be playing in 10 years time, not even because he's -that- much bigger - but because of the playing style. There's every chance Daniels never learns how to protect himself, and gets demolished in the pros. He might just never translate as a passer, either. You accept that risk with the pick.

But if you're a team that is set to compete in a SF or 2QB - and you've somehow found yourself with a pick in the 1.04-1.07 range, and he somehow falls to you? Don't be "all out" on this guy just because you're scared of the downsides.

He's an elite rushing QB with a very good deep ball - and that's "as-is". He's going to score a -lot- of fantasy points, especially if he lands somewhere with weapons. And if he really hits, and takes the next step as a passer? He's going to help win people a lot of fantasy championships.

Pretty much my feelings. I see Daniels taking the typical “running QB” trajectory, where he lights it up from a fantasy perspective, as long as he stays healthy. Then, round about year three or four his coaching staff goes, “We gotta transition him into more of a passer or he’s going to get killed!”, and then he descends into fantasy mediocrity…

I wonder if for FF purposes comparing CW to Daniels is all that helpful. I can't imagine too many people are debating that choice.

I guess I'd be more curious about the comparison b/w Daniels and Maye. That's a decision someone will be faced with in every league. I'm waiting to see how the NFL views them before I land on it. But in the meantime, would love to hear the thoughts from the Forum.

Agree

[Valhalla]

If you want to take safer players over him because you simply -must- hit on base with your premium 1st (let's say you're in a rebuild) then I have no issues with anyone that wants to take Nabors or Marv ahead of him. Even Odunze. I get it.

Caleb is absolutely a safer pick by miles in every way. He's also far more likely to be playing in 10 years time, not even because he's -that- much bigger - but because of the playing style. There's every chance Daniels never learns how to protect himself, and gets demolished in the pros. He might just never translate as a passer, either. You accept that risk with the pick.

But if you're a team that is set to compete in a SF or 2QB - and you've somehow found yourself with a pick in the 1.04-1.07 range, and he somehow falls to you? Don't be "all out" on this guy just because you're scared of the downsides.

He's an elite rushing QB with a very good deep ball - and that's "as-is". He's going to score a -lot- of fantasy points, especially if he lands somewhere with weapons. And if he really hits, and takes the next step as a passer? He's going to help win people a lot of fantasy championships.

Pretty much my feelings. I see Daniels taking the typical “running QB” trajectory, where he lights it up from a fantasy perspective, as long as he stays healthy. Then, round about year three or four his coaching staff goes, “We gotta transition him into more of a passer or he’s going to get killed!”, and then he descends into fantasy mediocrity…

I wonder if for FF purposes comparing CW to Daniels is all that helpful. I can't imagine too many people are debating that choice.

I guess I'd be more curious about the comparison b/w Daniels and Maye. That's a decision someone will be faced with in every league. I'm waiting to see how the NFL views them before I land on it. But in the meantime, would love to hear the thoughts from the Forum.

And what if the "NFL view" is Daniels at 3 to NE and Maye "falls" all the way to 11 with the Vikings weaponry? Or the other way around?