I'm not saying that particular scenario would be an easy decision. But in Waddle we're talking about a guy who finished as overall WR8 and WR13 in two of the last three seasons. I think we'd be happy to draft a rookie WR who did that in 2 of his first 3 seasons.BabyChark23 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 11:35 amI get the point you’re making about proven vs potential but just to be clear: if you were on the clock at 1.01 in single QB league, and had the choice to trade the 1.01 straight up for waddle (with no one else willing to pay more), you would prefer taking Waddle over drafting MHJR?Anteaters wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 11:21 amFor me, that line is probably any WR that is a dynasty T14WR and is not old or in an iffy situation.
I'm not taking any rookie WR over Lamb, JJ, Chase, ARSB, Puka, Olave, Aiyuk, Waddle, London, Pittman, Devonta and maybe a couple of others.
After MHJr, I could add another five or six before I'd even consider Nabers over them.
Odunze? I love the kid, but add another three or four to that count.
I'll let other fantasy managers chase cars rolling down the street. I'm happy to take the proven young veteran over the shiny rolling rim, every day.
Also, Waddle is playing with a QB who just led the NFL in yards for 2023. And he's playing with an all-world WR (Hill) who will be slowing down soon, which puts Waddle in position to claim more target share. So, yeah, I would think long and hard before I gave up a sure thing for an unproven rookie MHJr.
What can any reasonable dynasty manager expect out of a rookie for his career? Are you really assuming an unproven rookie is a lock for JJ type numbers? And if he's not JJ or a prime DAdams, how narrow is that gap between JJ/Chase/ARSB/Lamb and Waddle? Too narrow for me to gamble on a rookie slotting in there.