Jefferson or the Rooks

[murphysxm]

This is philosophical for me. On paper the trade is fair. Boils down to risk/reward. The two rookies absolutely have the potential to boom and make this a fantastic trade. They could be great WR's and the trade is a wash. Or one or both could disappoint and you lose the trade. What is your level of risk taking? For me I can't see liking the results of the trade unless both WR are hits. I would rather hold the HR then gamble on that. JJ has proved he is pretty QB proof

[pmart33]

I came here to say "you don't trade Jefferson for uncertainty" but now that I see it's MHJ & Nabers I want the uncertainty.

[Prison_Mike]

This is philosophical for me. On paper the trade is fair. Boils down to risk/reward. The two rookies absolutely have the potential to boom and make this a fantastic trade. They could be great WR's and the trade is a wash. Or one or both could disappoint and you lose the trade. What is your level of risk taking? For me I can't see liking the results of the trade unless both WR are hits. I would rather hold the HR then gamble on that. JJ has proved he is pretty QB proof

Agree with all of this.

The problem is "hit" can mean different things. This might be a somewhat arbitrary exercise, but in an effort to make it not so black and white (bust vs. hit), let's say MHJ and Nabers have similar early career arcs of....Brandon Aiyuk and DJ Moore (for example). These are 1st round WRs with some elite traits that are highly valued in dynasty. It took DJM until YR6 to have a WR1 season (ppg), and Aiyuk has yet to do it.

So even if you hit on both, it could A) take a long time to pay off and B) look a lot different in your lineup than the ridiculous 20(+) ppg that JJ averages (and as Murph mentioned, is QB-proof).

I think you would need one to be a perennial WR1 and the other to be a perennial WR2 out of the gates in order for it to be worth it and while I don't think that's out of the question (because they really are great prospects), it's a pretty high bar because there are so many factors outside of talent.

There are a bunch of RD1 hits you could do this exercise with - Wilson, Olave, London, Smith, Waddle, Jeudy, etc. None of them (aside from Chase) have had the difference-making ability that JJ has. Now if the argument is that none of these players are the level of prospect that MHJ and Nabers are, then it's a fine bet to make...but there's a great deal of risk when the wager is JJ

[pnrsteelers]

The safe pick would be Jefferson and he is still young (24yrs) however who will be the Vikings QB long term and can JJ be able to produce at a high level with whoever that maybe. 2. when is this trade being made? before or after the NFL draft and what are the landing spots of the 2 Rooks and what does their situation look like. Ultimately I don't think you can go wrong with either choice and it comes down to do you want to go with the safe choice or the one that won't necessarily burn you but does have some risk. If you have a firm belief that one of the Rooks will be better than JJ I would advice you go that route. Back in 2020 I was offered DK Metcalf for my 1.05 in that years rookie draft. I was huge fan of CeeDee Lamb and was picking him every chance I could but in this league with the 1.05 I didn't believe he would be available at the 1.05 and made the trade. Today I wish I would have kept the pick but at least DK has not been bad just not as good as CD. Ultimately I don't think you can go wrong with either choice but I would go with your gut feeling and who you want especially if this is a rebuild or your WR room is thin.

[Jrblaha]

It’s not out of the question that next year MHjr or Nabers is worth more than JJ on their own, and the other also has solid value. I’d love a share of JJ, I’ve never had him and always wanted him, but I do have Chase and CD (which feels similar to JJ) and I’d trade either for MHjr + Nabers.

I will echo go with your gut tho, what would you feel worse about; swinging and missing or passing and they blow up?

[TheTroll]

Rookie fever in full swing here.

[Jrblaha]

Rookie fever in full swing here.

Might be, but trade calcs, charts, etc have 1.01 + 1.02 in 1QB >> JustinJ even with package mod on

[Anteaters]

Rookie fever in full swing here.

Might be, but trade calcs, charts, etc have 1.01 + 1.02 in 1QB >> JustinJ even with package mod on

If this is SF (which I assumed, maybe incorrectly), we're probably talking about 1.02+1.05. What does the trade calc say about JJ versus 1.02+1.05?

[kellysheroes]

Which side?

JJ is a stud and still in mid 20s, hes worth more than one of the top 2 rooks

[Jrblaha]

Rookie fever in full swing here.

Might be, but trade calcs, charts, etc have 1.01 + 1.02 in 1QB >> JustinJ even with package mod on

If this is SF (which I assumed, maybe incorrectly), we're probably talking about 1.02+1.05. What does the trade calc say about JJ versus 1.02+1.05?

I could be wrong on 1QB versus SF, maybe I got some threads mashed together. In SF, mod on, still has 1.02 + 1.05 >> JJ, with 1071 versus 840, which means it’s off by a random ~2025 1st

As is, I agree with the calc favorite side, and prefer MHjr + Nabers to JJ on his own. But it’s closer to me than a 2025 1st, so if JJ’s side added a 2025 1st I’d prefer that. wow, value on that is crazy close (1099 for the picks and 1099.4 for JJ + 2025 1st)

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Not adding a 1st to JJ lol. The deal is just weird because people aren’t actually making this trade. We are just putting a value to it but nothing like this will ever happen with any kind of frequency.