Jefferson or the Rooks

[SStory93]

Which side?

[JamboMac]

If you're in full blown rebuild then the younger guys. One of them is likely to hit, two of them give you a much better chance.

[frerichs5]

If you're in full blown rebuild then the younger guys. One of them is likely to hit, two of them give you a much better chance.

JJ for me. You’re betting on both to hit to win this trade. If one hits, one doesn’t…you’re in the same spot. And that’s assuming they hit to the extent JJ has. Or you’re still behind anyway.

[MacDaddy123]

I'll take the rookies, especially now with Cousins gone.

[JamboMac]

If you're in full blown rebuild then the younger guys. One of them is likely to hit, two of them give you a much better chance.

JJ for me. You’re betting on both to hit to win this trade. If one hits, one doesn’t…you’re in the same spot. And that’s assuming they hit to the extent JJ has. Or you’re still behind anyway.

I get you, I've been struggling with the idea of trading Jefferson myself. But when you're in a rebuild you have to take these risks, and this draft has 3 WRs that could all potentially explode. Best time to make that move imo. If you aren't struggling for assets and expect to mount a challenge in a season or two, then Jefferson all day long. It sucks losing him no matter what really.

[frerichs5]

If you're in full blown rebuild then the younger guys. One of them is likely to hit, two of them give you a much better chance.

JJ for me. You’re betting on both to hit to win this trade. If one hits, one doesn’t…you’re in the same spot. And that’s assuming they hit to the extent JJ has. Or you’re still behind anyway.

I get you, I've been struggling with the idea of trading Jefferson myself. But when you're in a rebuild you have to take these risks, and this draft has 3 WRs that could all potentially explode. Best time to make that move imo. If you aren't struggling for assets and expect to mount a challenge in a season or two, then Jefferson all day long. It sucks losing him no matter what really.

I don’t disagree on the rebuild aspect and needing more assets. If something like this was on the table, I’d much rather get one pick and something of similar value to the other pick in a proven asset instead. But that’s just me personally. Everyone is different.

[TheTroll]

Ooooof. You are pitting one LSU God vs a LSU DemiGod. Tough for me here. I “guess” if you were in complete tear down mode maybe but honestly this is JJ…I would actually ask for a bit more.

[Black Adam]

The rookies. Just that they both hit though.

[Tvols]

Good value for jj getting the 1-01 and 1-02 thinks it’s fair

[Jrblaha]

If you're in full blown rebuild then the younger guys. One of them is likely to hit, two of them give you a much better chance.

JJ for me. You’re betting on both to hit to win this trade. If one hits, one doesn’t…you’re in the same spot. And that’s assuming they hit to the extent JJ has. Or you’re still behind anyway.

If one hits major like JJ and the other is still decent, it’s still a win tho. Guess it depends on what you mean by hit

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Its prob even

[Anteaters]

If you're in full blown rebuild then the younger guys. One of them is likely to hit, two of them give you a much better chance.

JJ for me. You’re betting on both to hit to win this trade. If one hits, one doesn’t…you’re in the same spot. And that’s assuming they hit to the extent JJ has. Or you’re still behind anyway.

If one hits major like JJ and the other is still decent, it’s still a win tho. Guess it depends on what you mean by hit

This is how I look at "hit" in this scenario.

Jefferson has HIT and HIT BIG. For the last two seasons he's basically been ranked as overall dynasty WR1. This offseason after missing half of 2023, he's still overall WR1 or WR2.

MHJr and Nabers are hopeful to hit. Even if I'm being generously optimistic, I don't see anyway to realistically predict either will be better than a career long WR11-15 for the next 7-8 seasons. Compared to 2023 stats, that puts them on a level with Nico/Aiyuk/Pittman/Olave/Deebo.

Putting names on this helps me picture this better. Now we're talking about Jefferson for Pittman+Deebo. Or Jefferson for Aiyuk+Olave.

Now, if one of MHJr/Nabers doesn't hit those projections, he might slide down to a career WR22. That's not too bad. Then we're talking Jefferson for Pittman+Addison. Or Jefferson for Nico+JReed.

We have to remember that approximately half of the current T10WR was not projected to be that good. Jefferson was way down the list, round WR4-7 for the 2020 draft, with Jeudy/Reagor usually higher rated. In 2021, Devonta/Bateman/EMoore were usually in the mix for WR2-5. ARSB was nowhere to be found. Do we even want to go back and look at the 2019 rankings with N'Keal at the top? In 2016 Tyreek was nowhere near the top of the lists, but Shepherd/Treadwell/Doctson/Fuller were mentioned as top WRs to target.

I have a hard time justifying giving up a young consensus Top2WR for two maybes. But I understand the hope that maybe you turn two Maybes into two Jeffersons. Good luck with that.

[tstafford]

JJ for me. You’re betting on both to hit to win this trade. If one hits, one doesn’t…you’re in the same spot. And that’s assuming they hit to the extent JJ has. Or you’re still behind anyway.

If one hits major like JJ and the other is still decent, it’s still a win tho. Guess it depends on what you mean by hit

This is how I look at "hit" in this scenario.

Jefferson has HIT and HIT BIG. For the last two seasons he's basically been ranked as overall dynasty WR1. This offseason after missing half of 2023, he's still overall WR1 or WR2.

MHJr and Nabers are hopeful to hit. Even if I'm being generously optimistic, I don't see anyway to realistically predict either will be better than a career long WR11-15 for the next 7-8 seasons. Compared to 2023 stats, that puts them on a level with Nico/Aiyuk/Pittman/Olave/Deebo.

Putting names on this helps me picture this better. Now we're talking about Jefferson for Pittman+Deebo. Or Jefferson for Aiyuk+Olave.

Now, if one of MHJr/Nabers doesn't hit those projections, he might slide down to a career WR22. That's not too bad. Then we're talking Jefferson for Pittman+Addison. Or Jefferson for Nico+JReed.

We have to remember that approximately half of the current T10WR was not projected to be that good. Jefferson was way down the list, round WR4-7 for the 2020 draft, with Jeudy/Reagor usually higher rated. In 2021, Devonta/Bateman/EMoore were usually in the mix for WR2-5. ARSB was nowhere to be found. Do we even want to go back and look at the 2019 rankings with N'Keal [/b]at the top? In 2016 Tyreek was nowhere near the top of the lists, but Shepherd/Treadwell/Doctson/Fuller were mentioned as top WRs to target.

I have a hard time justifying giving up a young consensus Top2WR for two maybes. But I understand the hope that maybe you turn two Maybes into two Jeffersons. Good luck with that.

While I tend to agree with you, the flaw in your logic is that many people don't agree with the bolded part. MHJR was anointed as a top-5 dynasty WR months ago and now Nabers is considered by many to be in the same tier. People are projecting AJG/Julio for these two, not Pittman/Deebo.

[Anteaters]

If one hits major like JJ and the other is still decent, it’s still a win tho. Guess it depends on what you mean by hit

This is how I look at "hit" in this scenario.

Jefferson has HIT and HIT BIG. For the last two seasons he's basically been ranked as overall dynasty WR1. This offseason after missing half of 2023, he's still overall WR1 or WR2.

MHJr and Nabers are hopeful to hit. Even if I'm being generously optimistic, I don't see anyway to realistically predict either will be better than a career long WR11-15 for the next 7-8 seasons. Compared to 2023 stats, that puts them on a level with Nico/Aiyuk/Pittman/Olave/Deebo.

Putting names on this helps me picture this better. Now we're talking about Jefferson for Pittman+Deebo. Or Jefferson for Aiyuk+Olave.

Now, if one of MHJr/Nabers doesn't hit those projections, he might slide down to a career WR22. That's not too bad. Then we're talking Jefferson for Pittman+Addison. Or Jefferson for Nico+JReed.

We have to remember that approximately half of the current T10WR was not projected to be that good. Jefferson was way down the list, round WR4-7 for the 2020 draft, with Jeudy/Reagor usually higher rated. In 2021, Devonta/Bateman/EMoore were usually in the mix for WR2-5. ARSB was nowhere to be found. Do we even want to go back and look at the 2019 rankings with N'Keal [/b]at the top? In 2016 Tyreek was nowhere near the top of the lists, but Shepherd/Treadwell/Doctson/Fuller were mentioned as top WRs to target.

I have a hard time justifying giving up a young consensus Top2WR for two maybes. But I understand the hope that maybe you turn two Maybes into two Jeffersons. Good luck with that.

While I tend to agree with you, the flaw in your logic is that many people don't agree with the bolded part. MHJR was anointed as a top-5 dynasty WR months ago and now Nabers is considered by many to be in the same tier. People are projecting AJG/Julio for these two, not Pittman/Deebo.

Fully agree this is the widely accepted opinion.

[tstafford]

This is how I look at "hit" in this scenario.

Jefferson has HIT and HIT BIG. For the last two seasons he's basically been ranked as overall dynasty WR1. This offseason after missing half of 2023, he's still overall WR1 or WR2.

MHJr and Nabers are hopeful to hit. Even if I'm being generously optimistic, I don't see anyway to realistically predict either will be better than a career long WR11-15 for the next 7-8 seasons. Compared to 2023 stats, that puts them on a level with Nico/Aiyuk/Pittman/Olave/Deebo.

Putting names on this helps me picture this better. Now we're talking about Jefferson for Pittman+Deebo. Or Jefferson for Aiyuk+Olave.

Now, if one of MHJr/Nabers doesn't hit those projections, he might slide down to a career WR22. That's not too bad. Then we're talking Jefferson for Pittman+Addison. Or Jefferson for Nico+JReed.

We have to remember that approximately half of the current T10WR was not projected to be that good. Jefferson was way down the list, round WR4-7 for the 2020 draft, with Jeudy/Reagor usually higher rated. In 2021, Devonta/Bateman/EMoore were usually in the mix for WR2-5. ARSB was nowhere to be found. Do we even want to go back and look at the 2019 rankings with N'Keal [/b]at the top? In 2016 Tyreek was nowhere near the top of the lists, but Shepherd/Treadwell/Doctson/Fuller were mentioned as top WRs to target.

I have a hard time justifying giving up a young consensus Top2WR for two maybes. But I understand the hope that maybe you turn two Maybes into two Jeffersons. Good luck with that.

While I tend to agree with you, the flaw in your logic is that many people don't agree with the bolded part. MHJR was anointed as a top-5 dynasty WR months ago and now Nabers is considered by many to be in the same tier. People are projecting AJG/Julio for these two, not Pittman/Deebo.

Fully agree this is the widely accepted opinion.

To be clear - I'm not endorsing it. Just decoding it!