I think the bolded depends on exactly which fantasy managers you're talking about.tstafford wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 3:15 am The thing I struggle with on the JSN analysis is that IMHO we got exactly the rookie season we expected from him yet he's dropped in value quite a bit. Something is wrong with our process. It's understandable that he would drop if we got a worse rookie result than expected, but we didn't. And let's not revise history - the consensus POV was very high on JSN. So much (too much) traction off the GW quote and the Rose Bowl numbers.
Group A were sold on JSN's metrics and college career and thought he'd be a surefire instant star in the NFL. After being chosen by Seattle, these managers downgraded their pre-NFL draft projections of his rookie season. The common line was "of course he won't produce like other top rookies because of his situation." And when JSN had a Downs like year-end line, it's all about, "no worries man, just what we expected."
Group B managers were less than completely sold on JSN's metrics and college career, but thought there was a chance he could be a good fantasy bet depending on landing spot. After the NFL draft, many in this group spend their draft capital on other players. A few in this group chose JSN anyway and hoped for the best. After his rookie season, a lot of people in this group are saying "We did not expect a flag planting season and JSN did not give us a flag planting rookie season." This group sees his rookie production as an indication that he might not be a future fantasy WR1.
Regarding process being wrong, again there are two ways to look at this. If you originally thought JSN was that guy all along, your process should be to stick with him, unless you get a decent offer (not far off what you paid) for him from another JSN believer.
If you originally thought JSN was a flawed player in a less than ideal situation, your process should be to follow the stats and avoid/sell him.
The biggest example of flawed process, IMO, would be if someone was down on JSN but now feels this is a "buy low" moment. If you thought he was flawed and in a situation that makes it difficult for him to thrive, nothing has changed. If you are one of the doubters, buying low better really be buying low and not a late 1st. Or that's bad process based on where a Group B person started.
I agree with you that, between the end of the college season and fantasy drafts, there was a lot of hype about JSN. At least 65%+ seemed to be true believers at that point. But there were also some of us who saw him as merely a good prospect, not a great one.