Big Trade Completed

[Dynasty DeLorean]

i prefer the side you gave up by a decent bit. with the pick being 3 yrs out imo it holds little value so you got older players back but the pick so far down the line its abit confusing of a trade. i dont think you lost big by any means just i would rather easily prefer the ljax/london/hock side

As long as it’s a stable league that isn’t in danger of folding, it doesn’t matter if a 1st is 1 year out, 2 years out, 3 years out…. Doesn’t matter. I stocked up on draft picks many years out for a few years and once they came due I was able to use or trade them and went 13-1 last year. Devaluing picks just because they’re a few years out is basically nonsense, as long as it’s a stable league. If anything, a contender trading you a pick several years out only makes it more valuable because by that time their contending team may stink.

I disagree and so does DTC. The farther out a pick is, the less inherent value it has.

You can look back and see what the 2024 was worth a full year or two ago compared to now, but if that's how you see things, that's fine too.

There’s perceived value and then there’s actual value. The perceived value of a 1st several years out is lower, but its actual value is a 1st. A 1st is a 1st. We don’t have to overcomplicate this.

[FiremanEd]

It’s not complicated to say that most owners wouldn’t trade a mid 2024 1st for a random 2025 1st. Or that sometimes you may see a 2.01 for ‘late 2025 1st’, but you wouldn’t see a 1.12 for 2.01 deal. You won’t see a 2025 1st for 2026 1st trade made. Simply put, current/sooner picks are more valuable. Are all 1sts good? Yes. Are they all equal? No. Time value of money applies.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

It’s not complicated to say that most owners wouldn’t trade a mid 2024 1st for a random 2025 1st. Or that sometimes you may see a 2.01 for ‘late 2025 1st’, but you wouldn’t see a 1.12 for 2.01 deal. You won’t see a 2025 1st for 2026 1st trade made. Simply put, current/sooner picks are more valuable. Are all 1sts good? Yes. Are they all equal? No. Time value of money applies.

No, it’s not the same as money. A dollar now will be worth less than a dollar in 3 years. A 1st in fantasy football will still be worth a 1st in 3 years. I know you’ve all been told future picks are supposed to be worth nothing by fantasy “experts” “gurus” and “talking heads” but it’s nonsense. Wake up. The only caveat is if you think the league could fold.

[FiremanEd]

A dollar today, invested or even just saved in the worst savings, will be worth more in 3 years. Or you’d have spent it and had $1 of enjoyment. Not sure what you’re talking about.

I can trade a 1st this year, for a 1st+ next year, then again next year to 2026++. Or a pick this year straight to 2026 for ++. If you haven’t seen this in your leagues, then I’m not sure what goes on in your leagues. Nobody is paying 2024 1st+ for a 2026 1st.

A 1st will be worth a 1st in the future, yes, that is true. It has good value. It isn’t worth the value of an immediate year or sooner 1st. Generally speaking, you will see them traded with less value associated to it. This is market principles.

This isn’t fantasy guru’s or whatever you’re talking about, this is any league market, pretty much anywhere.

Yes, snap up future 1sts. Know you won’t have immediate help for your team though and have to wait for it to have maximum league market appeal though. Buying at the discount and waiting is great practice, if you can do so while not giving up current year worth to do so, and knowing it doesn’t provide immediate reward to your fantasy team winning this year.

Someone wants to buy a player from you. Are you valuing their 2028 1st the same as a 2025? Or where do you draw the line that all 1sts are equal?

I’ll note that I love future pick discounts. I’ve made 2 deals this week in my home league to get 2025 2nds and 2026 1st/2nd. I accept that have less immediate market worth though. That worth will grow however. I do see your perspective. I think a 1st is a 1st is true, but so is time value of money that they aren’t equal at time X, but will be when time Y gets there.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

A dollar today, invested or even just saved in the worst savings, will be worth more in 3 years. Or you’d have spent it and had $1 of enjoyment. Not sure what you’re talking about.

I can trade a 1st this year, for a 1st+ next year, then again next year to 2026++. Or a pick this year straight to 2026 for ++. If you haven’t seen this in your leagues, then I’m not sure what goes on in your leagues. Nobody is paying 2024 1st+ for a 2026 1st.

A 1st will be worth a 1st in the future, yes, that is true. It has good value. It isn’t worth the value of an immediate year or sooner 1st. Generally speaking, you will see them traded with less value associated to it. This is market principles.

This isn’t fantasy guru’s or whatever you’re talking about, this is any league market, pretty much anywhere.

Yes, snap up future 1sts. Know you won’t have immediate help for your team though and have to wait for it to have maximum league market appeal though. Buying at the discount and waiting is great practice, if you can do so while not giving up current year worth to do so, and knowing it doesn’t provide immediate reward to your fantasy team winning this year.

Someone wants to buy a player from you. Are you valuing their 2028 1st the same as a 2025? Or where do you draw the line that all 1sts are equal?

I’ll note that I love future pick discounts. I’ve made 2 deals this week in my home league to get 2025 2nds and 2026 1st/2nd. I accept that have less immediate market worth though. That worth will grow however. I do see your perspective. I think a 1st is a 1st is true, but so is time value of money that they aren’t equal at time X, but will be when time Y gets there.

I'm not trying to be annoying but you wrote a bunch of nonsense. Just think about this logically. If Team A continually trades an early 2nd for a future 1st 3 years out, and Team B continually trades a future 1st 3 years out for a current early 2nd, then in 3 years Team A will have 2 1sts every year and Team B will have 2 2nds every year. Which team will be better off after the initial 2 years? The answer is obvious, it's Team A. And I assume you will respond that oh well ThAtS dIfFeReNt because this is a one time thing. Ok. Which is better. An early 2nd or a 1st. Again, the answer is obviously a 1st. So within the span of 3 years, the team getting the 1st will come out ahead.

You seem to be going down the route of saying "but what about a 1st 10 years from now? 20 years from now?" That is a point, I guess. But like i said, it's up to the individual. Is that fun for you? Will your league fold? Will you still want to play FF 10 years from now? That's all up to each individual to decide for themselves. Most people, when discussing future 1sts, are talking about a 1st 1, 2, maybe 3 years in the future. That's what I responded to, and so that's what I'm discussing.

Real money has zero to do with fantasy football draft picks because there is no inflation with draft picks. The reason a dollar bill is worth more now than that same dollar bill 3 years in the future is because of inflation. There is no inflation with draft picks. You can't invest a draft pick, you can't put a draft pick in a savings account. You're talking nonsense. Anything you can do with an early 2nd now, you can do better with a 1st a few years from now.

In basically any scenario, your team will be better off with a future 1st than an early 2nd. If you value future 1sts more than current early 2nds and manage your team consistently, you will win out in the long run. The only thing you're losing out on is the instant gratification of using the draft pick, whether it's selecting a rookie or trading for something else.

Things can get more complicated if we're talking about contending vs rebuilding, strengths of different draft classes, BuT wHaT iF i HiT oN mY dRaFt PiCk, etc. But that's not what I'm talking about. I'm saying a 1st is worth a 1st, even if it's 2-3 years down the road. Remember, anything you can do with your early 2nd now, you can do it better with a future 1st later. If you use this mindset to run your team you will eventually win out in the long run.

"I think a 1st is a 1st is true, but so is time value of money that they aren’t equal at time X, but will be when time Y gets there."
- NO. They do not work the same. If I acquire a future 1st today, in 3 years time it will be worth exactly the same... a 1st. If I acquire a dollar bill today, in 3 years time it will be worth less than a dollar because of inflation. They are not the same, please stop misinforming people. FF players place value on draft picks, but draft picks don't change if we change their value. A 1st will always be a top 12 rookie pick, a 2nd will always be the next 12, and so on and so forth. Whether someone values it this way or that it doesn't change what a 1st or 2nd fundamentally is. Money is different because a dollar bill is only as good as the value/worth assigned to it. A dollar bill without value assigned to it is just a piece of paper that maybe you can wipe your a$$ with. A 1st you will always be able to select a top 12 rookie, it doesn't matter how people value or perceive it, you will always be able to do that with a 1st. A dollar today maybe you can buy a bagel or whatever, but 3 years from now maybe you won't be able to do that with the same dollar bill. They are not the same.


edit: I also noticed you keep arguing that trading a 1st this year for a 1st in the future (without getting something added on) would be dumb, and all things equal, I agree. But you're arguing against something I never said. I am simply refuting the idea that a 1st in the future is worth significantly less than a 1st now. In theory, assuming you and the league would go on for eternity, they are worth the same, but all things equal, I'd rather use it now because there is always some inherent risk to future picks, as I've already stated. League can fold, you could become disinterested, maybe some bozo gets into your league and you don't want to play anymore, maybe you don't have the money to play in the league anymore, it could be any number of things. But for most, those risks are minute. So all things equal, if I have a choice between a 1st in 2025 or a 1st in 2028, I will obviously take the 2025 1st. 1sts closer to now are more fun and slightly less risky than future 1sts further away. But if I have the chance to turn an early 2nd in a future 1st, I'm basically doing that every single time. Of course, as aforementioned, draft classes being stronger or weaker and/or whether rebuilding or contending can change that equation, but that's not what I'm talking about.

Edit: didn’t even mention that an early 2nd will only ever be an early 2nd. A future 1st could be a late 1st, mid 1st, or even early 1st.

[BigBawseRoss]

im not a fan at all. lamar has much more upside than dak to me (dak was an attractive piece last year for the first time in 5 seasons), got london on the rise and like the youth (admit ajb is a top option and in his prime though), hock over a first 2 years out dont need to explain that one.

dont care enough about the wr swap (big projections for london i know)
prefer lamar to dak
prefer hock to random 1st in 2 seasons.

[FiremanEd]

Cutting through the fluff, I agree a future 1st isn’t worth significantly less than a current 1st. That said, it is worth less to the general market. If the future pick is perceived higher, then it is equal or perhaps even better in value. The further the pick is away, the more uncertainty and the more upside potential, but it won’t generally be viewed as equal to current year picks to the broader market, and therefore gets equalled to a lower pick in today’s market (i.e. 1.12 or 2.01 vs future 1st).

If you disagree a future 1st is worth less than a perceived comparably placed future 1st this year, then we’ll agree to disagree…noting that draft classes are different in perceived value and depth. So, there are considerations.

Should people be selling their future 1sts at big discount? No. It is risky. Can it win? Yes, for both sides.

Should people be buying future 1sts at discounts? Yes, where it makes sense. You should be getting them cheaper than current year 1sts though.

The $1 real world comparable is just time value of money. Perhaps I captured it poorly. I won’t bother revisiting aside from saying you can do better than just putting it in your bedroom piggy bank and pulling it out 2 years later and thinking ‘look, I still have exactly $1’. It is a safe move, but you neither made a profit nor got any immediate benefit in your life, which were both options. You still have that $1 though, which is better than having lost or wasted it.

[Black Adam]

As long as it’s a stable league that isn’t in danger of folding, it doesn’t matter if a 1st is 1 year out, 2 years out, 3 years out…. Doesn’t matter. I stocked up on draft picks many years out for a few years and once they came due I was able to use or trade them and went 13-1 last year. Devaluing picks just because they’re a few years out is basically nonsense, as long as it’s a stable league. If anything, a contender trading you a pick several years out only makes it more valuable because by that time their contending team may stink.

I disagree and so does DTC. The farther out a pick is, the less inherent value it has.

You can look back and see what the 2024 was worth a full year or two ago compared to now, but if that's how you see things, that's fine too.

I welcome and listen to all advice but when someone’s argument is DTC or any calc that opinion is lessened for me.. Those things can be manipulated and they change rankings daily. Have your own values and opinions is the best way to go Black Adam.. Love your input tho

Trust, I definitely have my own values and opinions. I simply use the calculator once I've made up my mind to see what the consensus looks like.

I just got offered:
Give Saquon + 2.06
Get JWilliams + 1.09

I wanted to reject as soon as I saw it but I ran it through the calculator as due diligence before I declined. YMMV ofc.