Josh Downs Price?
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Re: Josh Downs Price?
Downs current value in a 12 team SF league is right around 1.12/2.01
Re: Josh Downs Price?
I'm with you on JSN vs. Downs. My POV is that JSN is now undervalued whereas last preseason I thought he was overvalued. The drop has gone too far IMO. Had no interest in acquiring him last year, will for sure make some offers come draft time this year.moishetreats wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 1:11 pm These reasons don't land for me. I'd still much rather have JSN than Downs. And how you measure "better" is important. By yards only? I think that's a pretty limited window.
As for his rookie season, he played worse as the season went on -- despite lesser competition than JSN. Doesn't matter that he had Minshew; so did Pittman, and he played fine. In Downs' first eight games, he never once played fewer than 71% of the snaps. In his last six games, he only played more than 71% of the snaps twice. He might be good for sure! I'm highly doubting just about anyone would (or should) pay a late 1st to find out.
I'm sticking with mid-2nd at best, and I'm also still on board with Downs + late 2nd for late 1st.
I can see why folks want to sell Downs. Especially right now. The vector is sort of Diontae Johnson best case. By that I mean a WR who is started most weeks in most leagues but no one is excited to be doing so. The allure of the WRs in this class is such that a lot of managers would prefer to re-roll vs. that profile. I tend to be on the other side - I like having guys like Diontae, McLaurin, etc. (not sexy but useful and fairly cheap). This time of year however is about potential and upside not slotting in your WR5. Thus the tendency to sell Downs.
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Re: Josh Downs Price?
I love how you framed that!tstafford wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 3:03 amI'm with you on JSN vs. Downs. My POV is that JSN is now undervalued whereas last preseason I thought he was overvalued. The drop has gone too far IMO. Had no interest in acquiring him last year, will for sure make some offers come draft time this year.moishetreats wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 1:11 pm These reasons don't land for me. I'd still much rather have JSN than Downs. And how you measure "better" is important. By yards only? I think that's a pretty limited window.
As for his rookie season, he played worse as the season went on -- despite lesser competition than JSN. Doesn't matter that he had Minshew; so did Pittman, and he played fine. In Downs' first eight games, he never once played fewer than 71% of the snaps. In his last six games, he only played more than 71% of the snaps twice. He might be good for sure! I'm highly doubting just about anyone would (or should) pay a late 1st to find out.
I'm sticking with mid-2nd at best, and I'm also still on board with Downs + late 2nd for late 1st.
I can see why folks want to sell Downs. Especially right now. The vector is sort of Diontae Johnson best case. By that I mean a WR who is started most weeks in most leagues but no one is excited to be doing so. The allure of the WRs in this class is such that a lot of managers would prefer to re-roll vs. that profile. I tend to be on the other side - I like having guys like Diontae, McLaurin, etc. (not sexy but useful and fairly cheap). This time of year however is about potential and upside not slotting in your WR5. Thus the tendency to sell Downs.
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball
QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble
2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th
12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball
QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186
IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball
QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble
2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th
12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball
QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186
IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --
- BigBawseRoss
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Re: Josh Downs Price?
they both had same target share and almost identical targets but downs produced more and dropped less (jsn had a 7.5% drop rate compared to 3% for downs). downs was better in most every category you can find (air yard, team target %, adot, etc) aside from ave yards after the catch (6 for jsn vs 5.5 downs) and tds (4 to 2). one dude costs a mid first the other costs a mid to late 2nd according to this thread. i think a late first or early 2nd is totally fine for him idk just my opinion. also quick google search shows Downs hurt his knee week 9 and played thru the injury haha so we have a direct explanation for the usage and downtrendmoishetreats wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 1:11 pmBigBawseRoss wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 6:10 amhe had a better season than jsn and has less comp for touches.moishetreats wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 3:27 pm What am I missing here? Why would anyone realistically pay a late 1st for Downs? Honestly, I think a mid-2nd is the best you'd get if you're selling.These reasons don't land for me. I'd still much rather have JSN than Downs. And how you measure "better" is important. By yards only? I think that's a pretty limited window.BigBawseRoss wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 6:12 amdude put up 750+ in an offense that had a rushing rookie qb for a few weeks and then gardner minshew and he was a first year player. and then the team didnt go get any wrs in free agency
As for his rookie season, he played worse as the season went on -- despite lesser competition than JSN. Doesn't matter that he had Minshew; so did Pittman, and he played fine. In Downs' first eight games, he never once played fewer than 71% of the snaps. In his last six games, he only played more than 71% of the snaps twice. He might be good for sure! I'm highly doubting just about anyone would (or should) pay a late 1st to find out.
I'm sticking with mid-2nd at best, and I'm also still on board with Downs + late 2nd for late 1st.
team 1
12 team, 1 pt for 4 rec, 0.1 per rush
1qb, 3 rb, 4 wr, te, k, 4 idp
Dak , Herbert
Achane, Breece Hall, KW3Kyren,Ford, Miller, Spiller, z evans, singletary
J Jefferson, Diggs, DK, D Smith Puka, C Watson, E Moore
Njoku , HH, Engram
2024 picks
1,3,4,5,5,6,7 (all late mostly)
team 2
12 team .5ppr
qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, te, flx,flx,
Fields, Dak
Ford,Mixon, Javonte, Mostert, Chubb, Spears
Hopkins, Evans, g Wilson Mingo, shaheed, Jamo
Kelce,McBride, Chig,
1,2,3,3,5
team 3
14 team sf, even scoring idp to offense (rb scores highly too)
Josh Allen, A Rich, Foles, Rudolph
Bijan, Charbs, Spears, Ebner
J Williams, G Wilson, C Watson, Flowers, J Addison, Tillman
Kincaid, Kolar, Ruckert, Fergeson
Kenny Clark, josh allen, jaelen phillips, felix a-u and a bunch of fluff and rookie fliers at idp
12 team, 1 pt for 4 rec, 0.1 per rush
1qb, 3 rb, 4 wr, te, k, 4 idp
Dak , Herbert
Achane, Breece Hall, KW3Kyren,Ford, Miller, Spiller, z evans, singletary
J Jefferson, Diggs, DK, D Smith Puka, C Watson, E Moore
Njoku , HH, Engram
2024 picks
1,3,4,5,5,6,7 (all late mostly)
team 2
12 team .5ppr
qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, te, flx,flx,
Fields, Dak
Ford,Mixon, Javonte, Mostert, Chubb, Spears
Hopkins, Evans, g Wilson Mingo, shaheed, Jamo
Kelce,McBride, Chig,
1,2,3,3,5
team 3
14 team sf, even scoring idp to offense (rb scores highly too)
Josh Allen, A Rich, Foles, Rudolph
Bijan, Charbs, Spears, Ebner
J Williams, G Wilson, C Watson, Flowers, J Addison, Tillman
Kincaid, Kolar, Ruckert, Fergeson
Kenny Clark, josh allen, jaelen phillips, felix a-u and a bunch of fluff and rookie fliers at idp
- moishetreats
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Re: Josh Downs Price?
Thanks for the additional info, BBR. I appreciate the back-and-forth. I might be a little low on Downs after reading this (still not sure that I'm as high on him as you, though). Great food for thought. Thank you!BigBawseRoss wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:14 amthey both had same target share and almost identical targets but downs produced more and dropped less (jsn had a 7.5% drop rate compared to 3% for downs). downs was better in most every category you can find (air yard, team target %, adot, etc) aside from ave yards after the catch (6 for jsn vs 5.5 downs) and tds (4 to 2). one dude costs a mid first the other costs a mid to late 2nd according to this thread. i think a late first or early 2nd is totally fine for him idk just my opinion. also quick google search shows Downs hurt his knee week 9 and played thru the injury haha so we have a direct explanation for the usage and downtrendmoishetreats wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 1:11 pmBigBawseRoss wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 6:10 am
he had a better season than jsn and has less comp for touches.These reasons don't land for me. I'd still much rather have JSN than Downs. And how you measure "better" is important. By yards only? I think that's a pretty limited window.BigBawseRoss wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 6:12 am
dude put up 750+ in an offense that had a rushing rookie qb for a few weeks and then gardner minshew and he was a first year player. and then the team didnt go get any wrs in free agency
As for his rookie season, he played worse as the season went on -- despite lesser competition than JSN. Doesn't matter that he had Minshew; so did Pittman, and he played fine. In Downs' first eight games, he never once played fewer than 71% of the snaps. In his last six games, he only played more than 71% of the snaps twice. He might be good for sure! I'm highly doubting just about anyone would (or should) pay a late 1st to find out.
I'm sticking with mid-2nd at best, and I'm also still on board with Downs + late 2nd for late 1st.
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball
QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble
2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th
12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball
QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186
IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball
QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble
2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th
12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball
QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186
IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --
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Re: Josh Downs Price?
Late 3rd
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