2024 rookie draft strategy

[MacDaddy123]

I have five 1st round picks in 2024: 1.02, 1.04, 1.06, 1.08, and 1.12.
I have MHJ pretty much locked in as my 1.02 pick.

According to Dynasty Daddy, my QB room is ranked #1 in the league, while my WR room is ranked #11 in the league.
Can start up to 6 WR's, so I planned to hit WR hard in this draft.

I would love to land MHJ at 1.02, Nabers at 1.04, Odunze at 1.06, Brian Thomas Jr at 1.08, and Troy Franklin at 1.12.

Now the concern, my league does not value QB as much as many SF leagues value QB's.
Probably over a 50% chance that 1.03 takes Nabers, and over 75% chance that 1.05 takes Odunze, if I follow typical vale charts and grab Maye at 1.04 and Daniels at 1.06.

Sure, I would have the QB market cornered, but so far in the first 2 years of this league, managers have not shown any interest in paying for a top QB.

So now a new strategy I am thinking of drafting Odunze at 1.04 IF Nabers goes at 1.03.
Now that would mean that 3 of the first 4 picks in the draft would be WR's, but it also assures me that I get at least 2 of the top 3 WR's.
Probably just add 1 QB at 1.06 then.

Obviously if Nabers is there at 1.04, he is my pick, and things become much simpler.

I know that many will say that Odunze at 1.04 is a reach, but I just can't imagine having to add 2 QB's to my already deep QB room, and only getting 1 of the top 3 WR's.
Seems like a waste of draft capital to me.

Thoughts?

[TheTroll]

the only for sure pick is 1.01. You have a ton of great draft picks and you will be playing out 1,000 different possibilities. just remember this phrase.

draft for value, trade for need.

dont over think this. take the BPA regardless of position. Doesnt matter if you think you have the best QB stable in all the land. You will get plenty of QB, WR (maybe a TE) so step away from the CPU and just enjoy who drops to you come draft time.

[tstafford]

I get where you're coming from OP. I think we've both posted about our SF leagues where QB is valued differently than how the DLF Forum approaches things. I'm facing a similar situation where I hold the 1.01/1.05 and we can start up to 5WRs.

You did the perfect thing in trading down to the 1.02 and getting the extra 2025 1st since you want MHJR anyway. Even if he goes 1.01, this was a smart deal to do.

IMO - we need the NFL to weigh in on all these guys. The only clear indication we have is what CHI thinks of CW. I want to see how the draft shakes out before I take any definitive positions on players. But even in a league like ours, I'm still sticking closely to BPA and Troll's point about need vs. talent. In the long run, I think that's the winning approach.

[TheTroll]

I get where you're coming from OP. I think we've both posted about our SF leagues where QB is valued differently than how the DLF Forum approaches things. I'm facing a similar situation where I hold the 1.01/1.05 and we can start up to 5WRs.

You did the perfect thing in trading down to the 1.02 and getting the extra 2025 1st since you want MHJR anyway. Even if he goes 1.01, this was a smart deal to do.

IMO - we need the NFL to weigh in on all these guys. The only clear indication we have is what CHI thinks of CW. I want to see how the draft shakes out before I take any definitive positions on players. But even in a league like ours, I'm still sticking closely to BPA and Troll's point about need vs. talent. In the long run, I think that's the winning approach.

exactly you could drive yourself crazy until the draft. just go play golf and wait. regardless, you will be happy with your draft as long as you draft BPA

[Viking386]

You know your league better than any of us here. I would typically draft the best player on the board no matter what. So I would go for the Daniels before Odunze. At some point those teams will come knocking for a stud QB

[MacDaddy123]

the only for sure pick is 1.01. You have a ton of great draft picks and you will be playing out 1,000 different possibilities. just remember this phrase.

draft for value, trade for need.

dont over think this. take the BPA regardless of position. Doesnt matter if you think you have the best QB stable in all the land. You will get plenty of QB, WR (maybe a TE) so step away from the CPU and just enjoy who drops to you come draft time.

I like that, and that has been my motto for years.

However, going into year 3 of a league that doesn't trade much, might be time to reassess my motto.
That works perfectly in leagues with active trade markets.

[MacDaddy123]

You know your league better than any of us here. I would typically draft the best player on the board no matter what. So I would go for the Daniels before Odunze. At some point those teams will come knocking for a stud QB

You would hope so, but now, going into year 3, I have had no serious offers for a QB.
Sure, guys come and kick the tires on a QB.
Some will even make an offer like Mac Jones + 2.10 for Deshaun Watson (after Jones was traded to JAX).
But, IMO, that is a low-ball offer that I just ignore.

When I tell them they can have Watson for 1.09, they disappear.
Only QB trades I have seen in this league through 2 full seasons is for backup QB's.

Jake Browning, Joe Flacco, Will Levis, Trevor Siemian, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, these are the type of QB's who get traded in this league.

No one wants to pay big for a QB, because the secret to winning this league is getting QB's at discount rates.
2023 League Champ has Goff/Stafford/Ridder in his QB room.

[bigbuck22]

I would see if you could move 1.04 and 1.12 for 1.03 and maybe something small in order to land Nabers. I want studs and while 12 could yield an elite player, it's much more likely that 1.03/Nabers is that guy

[MacDaddy123]

I would see if you could move 1.04 and 1.12 for 1.03 and maybe something small in order to land Nabers. I want studs and while 12 could yield an elite player, it's much more likely that 1.03/Nabers is that guy

1.12 seems a little rich to move up 1 slot.
I actually am considering packaging 1.12 with 1.06 for 1.03.
That would give me 1.02/1.03/1.04 where I could select MHJ/Nabers/Odunze.

I would think it would only take a mid 2nd to move from 1.04 to 1.03.

[bigbuck22]

I would see if you could move 1.04 and 1.12 for 1.03 and maybe something small in order to land Nabers. I want studs and while 12 could yield an elite player, it's much more likely that 1.03/Nabers is that guy

1.12 seems a little rich to move up 1 slot.
I actually am considering packaging 1.12 with 1.06 for 1.03.
That would give me 1.02/1.03/1.04 where I could select MHJ/Nabers/Odunze.

I would think it would only take a mid 2nd to move from 1.04 to 1.03.

It would be pretty rich. If your league mates are like mine, they are holding tight to picks. Check out the price to move up. I'd be very interested in do so.

[MacDaddy123]

I would see if you could move 1.04 and 1.12 for 1.03 and maybe something small in order to land Nabers. I want studs and while 12 could yield an elite player, it's much more likely that 1.03/Nabers is that guy

1.12 seems a little rich to move up 1 slot.
I actually am considering packaging 1.12 with 1.06 for 1.03.
That would give me 1.02/1.03/1.04 where I could select MHJ/Nabers/Odunze.

I would think it would only take a mid 2nd to move from 1.04 to 1.03.

It would be pretty rich. If your league mates are like mine, they are holding tight to picks. Check out the price to move up. I'd be very interested in do so.

If picks are that rich, and they may be, than I'd rather trade down from 1.02 to 1.03 and pick up more.
I already traded down from 1.01 to 1.02, because I knew I would still get MHJ.
I sent a mid 25 2nd with the 1.01 for 1.02 and a mid/late 25 1st.

I have MHJ/Nabers close enough that I'd drop from 1.02 to 1.03 for another 1st round pick.
If I could only pick one, I'd lean Nabers, all landing spots being equal.
My plan to take MHJ at 1.02 is only because I feel that Nabers has a better shot at falling to 1.04 than MHJ does.

Just thinking out loud.
My original goal was to get MHJ/Nabers/Odunze at 1.02/1.04/1.06.
But signs are starting to say that WR's are rising and QB's are falling right now.

[MacDaddy123]

I get where you're coming from OP. I think we've both posted about our SF leagues where QB is valued differently than how the DLF Forum approaches things. I'm facing a similar situation where I hold the 1.01/1.05 and we can start up to 5WRs.

You did the perfect thing in trading down to the 1.02 and getting the extra 2025 1st since you want MHJR anyway. Even if he goes 1.01, this was a smart deal to do.

IMO - we need the NFL to weigh in on all these guys. The only clear indication we have is what CHI thinks of CW. I want to see how the draft shakes out before I take any definitive positions on players. But even in a league like ours, I'm still sticking closely to BPA and Troll's point about need vs. talent. In the long run, I think that's the winning approach.

This makes a ton of sense, just wait for NFL Draft to see capitol and landing slots.

I could do that, but have to work quickly after the draft as our rookie draft starts immediately after the NFL Draft ends, at 7 PM on Saturday April 27th.

So it's not like I have a week or two post draft to process things.

[MacDaddy123]

So after seeing the NFL weigh in, now I think I'll fade on Odunze at 1.04.

My rookie draft starts tomorrow evening, and as of now I think I'm now going MHJ, Daniels, and Nabers at 1.02/1.03/1.04.
Don't know what I will do with all of these QB's, but maybe Daniels now let's me bench Justin Herbert, who doesn't seem to have anyone to throw to anyway.