Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[tstafford]

A few questions:

Who is your RB1 right now? I know might change post-draft. I'm seeing Benson, Brooks, Allen, etc.
Who is the TE2 right now? I'm seeing a few names—Sanders most often.
Who is your QB5, and will they be a viable starting QB? I'm assuming Penix or Nix here.

All these questions require draft capital and landing spot for me to nail down. The further down the board, the more the NFL assessment matters to me. At RB, for example, there's no one who jumps out to me so no reason to lock in on anyone at this early stage.

[Ruggenater]

A few questions:

Who is your RB1 right now? I know might change post-draft. I'm seeing Benson, Brooks, Allen, etc.
Who is the TE2 right now? I'm seeing a few names—Sanders most often.
Who is your QB5, and will they be a viable starting QB? I'm assuming Penix or Nix here.

Wright at the moment for me, but is unlikely to stay the same post draft.

Still Sanders at TE, but I’d rather pass on him and take Theo Johnson later.

Haven’t been a huge fan of JJ McCarthy, so he might be my QB5 right now. And no, don’t see him as a viable QB for fantasy football.

[Cameron Giles]

A few questions:

Who is your RB1 right now? I know might change post-draft. I'm seeing Benson, Brooks, Allen, etc.
Who is the TE2 right now? I'm seeing a few names—Sanders most often.
Who is your QB5, and will they be a viable starting QB? I'm assuming Penix or Nix here.

All these questions require draft capital and landing spot for me to nail down. The further down the board, the more the NFL assessment matters to me. At RB, for example, there's no one who jumps out to me so no reason to lock in on anyone at this early stage.

Agreed. Brooks is the only one I've seen getting first round visits, unless I missed someone else. Possible that a number of RBs could be the first one selected though. I like Wright the most, but it's not locked in.

Just waiting for draft capital at this stage.

[FantasyFreak]

Yeah I’ve found the cutoff to be around 4.63-4.65 or so. Any worse than that and it’s a total long shot to relevancy

Video analysis by former DLF writer Jake Anderson suggests 4.68.

https://twitter.com/JakeAndersonPGA/sta ... 2254418324

It blows my mind that media and FF people don't understand that pro day hand times are basically fraudulent. It partly has to do with the time it takes the brain to see the movement of the player starting, process it, and send the message to your fingers to start the watch. Also t the finish. When all is said and done, the times are faster as a result. Player Profiler did extensive research on this.

And yet how much of a difference between a laser timed 40 and a hand timed 40 by someone who knows what they’re doing is it going to make on a player’s performance on the field?

No idea man, just providing context to pro day vs combine times, and the differences between them, and how they aren't an apples to apples comparison.

[Bronco Billy]

Video analysis by former DLF writer Jake Anderson suggests 4.68.

https://twitter.com/JakeAndersonPGA/sta ... 2254418324

It blows my mind that media and FF people don't understand that pro day hand times are basically fraudulent. It partly has to do with the time it takes the brain to see the movement of the player starting, process it, and send the message to your fingers to start the watch. Also t the finish. When all is said and done, the times are faster as a result. Player Profiler did extensive research on this.

And yet how much of a difference between a laser timed 40 and a hand timed 40 by someone who knows what they’re doing is it going to make on a player’s performance on the field?

No idea man, just providing context to pro day vs combine times, and the differences between them, and how they aren't apples to apples.

Wasn’t targeting you and I apologize if it seemed that way. I’m just so fed up with the emphasis on 40 times. Such an overrated metric that has no positive correlation with future success in the NFL.

[FantasyFreak]

And yet how much of a difference between a laser timed 40 and a hand timed 40 by someone who knows what they’re doing is it going to make on a player’s performance on the field?

No idea man, just providing context to pro day vs combine times, and the differences between them, and how they aren't apples to apples.

Wasn’t targeting you and I apologize if it seemed that way. I’m just so fed up with the emphasis on 40 times. Such an overrated metric that has no positive correlation with future success in the NFL.

No worries man. It is, I agree. I mean, it's nice to confirm JT has the elite speed we seemed to think he had at Wisky, and there are some baselines that need to be hit, or there's trouble, like Elijah Holyfield running close to 4.8 is nice to know, especially if you're doing a pre NFL rookie draft, because you know he's not getting draft capital, or De'Runnya Wilson (De'Walkya, more like) running a 4.93 as a WR shows the lack of baseline athleticism to translate, but Arian Foster ran a 4.74, I believe, so the lack of speed can be overcome, if you have enough skills, vision etc at the RB position. Kyren Williams is a good example too. It's just likely guys running slow times will be tracked down at the NFL level, on some runs that a guy like JT might house. Doesn't mean they can't be good players.

[Cameron Giles]

40 time isn't king, but RBs who run a 4.7 or worse does have a positive correlation to bad draft capital or in most cases, no draft capital at all. That has a positive correlation to a lack of success in the NFL. If you lack baseline speed at that position, then what's the value?

Same thing happened with Holyfield years ago on here. He was still getting picked in rookie drafts with no DC and a miserable 40. "Oh, he's better than that number, watch the tape!" Years later, he still hasn't played an NFL snap.

There's always a 1% outcome though, which can apply to literally..... anyone.

[killer_of_giants]

Same thing happened with Holyfield years ago on here. He was still getting picked in rookie drafts with no DC and a miserable 40. "Oh, he's better than that number, watch the tape!" Years later, he still hasn't played an NFL snap.

actually, he's played 5 (five!) snaps. on special teams.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

And yet how much of a difference between a laser timed 40 and a hand timed 40 by someone who knows what they’re doing is it going to make on a player’s performance on the field?

No idea man, just providing context to pro day vs combine times, and the differences between them, and how they aren't apples to apples.

Wasn’t targeting you and I apologize if it seemed that way. I’m just so fed up with the emphasis on 40 times. Such an overrated metric that has no positive correlation with future success in the NFL.

There's a lot of misconceptions around 40 times. I totally understand the want to push back on 40 because of course a good 40 does not make a good football player. And in a broad sense, there are many in the community that don't quite understand that. But that doesnt mean 40 times are not important just because of community misconceptions. Athleticism matters in athletics, to say it's unimportant is wrong. As Cameron has said, there are players people were high on, from "the tape", that could easily be crossed off the list because of a slow 40. And that has proven to work the vast majority of the time. And we have to understand why there isn't this big positive correlation. It's not that speed doesn't matter, it's that players who run a fast 40, or shred the combine, are more likely to be over-drafted. So if you run the raw data then yeah, those over drafted players will mess up the correlation. Just using common sense, if you have 2 equal players in every way, but one is faster than the other, the faster one will be better. So speed does matter. If you use the information from the 40 time correctly, like in my Rookie RB Report, where you take the [weight-adjusted] 40 time in conjunction with other factors, then there is a provable positive correlation. I put the results below. I really hate to see people dismiss 40 times completely, because they do provide valuable information. It's just all about how you interpret and use that information, which is where many people go wrong and where many bad narratives come from.

____________________________________
Rookie RB Classes of 2015-2021
My Model = Players in Tier 1 of my model
Other = Players not in Tier 1 of my model
Random = If you were to select a player at random (so disregarding my model)
1K Yard Season = 1k rushing yards @ 62.5+ ypc
____________________________________


Round 1 RB's

At least 1+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 80% Hit Rate
Other - 60% Hit Rate
Random - 70% Hit Rate

At least 2+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 60% Hit Rate
Other - 20% Hit Rate
Random - 40% Hit Rate

At least 3+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 40% Hit Rate
Other - 20% Hit Rate
Random - 30% Hit Rate



Round 2 RB's

At least 1+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 57% Hit Rate
Other - 38% Hit Rate
Random - 46% Hit Rate

At least 2+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 57% Hit Rate
Other - 13% Hit Rate
Random - 33% Hit Rate

At least 3+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 43% Hit Rate
Other - 13% Hit Rate
Random - 27% Hit Rate


Round 3 RB's

At least 1+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 50% Hit Rate
Other - 21% Hit Rate
Random - 24% Hit Rate

At least 2+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 0% Hit Rate
Other - 5% Hit Rate
Random - 5% Hit Rate

At least 3+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 0% Hit Rate
Other - 0% Hit Rate
Random - 0% Hit Rate

[BabyChark23]

Pats had their HC, GM, and OC at Michigan’s pro day….

[Bronco Billy]

No idea man, just providing context to pro day vs combine times, and the differences between them, and how they aren't apples to apples.

Wasn’t targeting you and I apologize if it seemed that way. I’m just so fed up with the emphasis on 40 times. Such an overrated metric that has no positive correlation with future success in the NFL.

There's a lot of misconceptions around 40 times. I totally understand the want to push back on 40 because of course a good 40 does not make a good football player. And in a broad sense, there are many in the community that don't quite understand that. But that doesnt mean 40 times are not important just because of community misconceptions. Athleticism matters in athletics, to say it's unimportant is wrong. As Cameron has said, there are players people were high on, from "the tape", that could easily be crossed off the list because of a slow 40. And that has proven to work the vast majority of the time. And we have to understand why there isn't this big positive correlation. It's not that speed doesn't matter, it's that players who run a fast 40, or shred the combine, are more likely to be over-drafted. So if you run the raw data then yeah, those over drafted players will mess up the correlation. Just using common sense, if you have 2 equal players in every way, but one is faster than the other, the faster one will be better. So speed does matter. If you use the information from the 40 time correctly, like in my Rookie RB Report, where you take the [weight-adjusted] 40 time in conjunction with other factors, then there is a provable positive correlation. I put the results below. I really hate to see people dismiss 40 times completely, because they do provide valuable information. It's just all about how you interpret and use that information, which is where many people go wrong and where many bad narratives come from.

____________________________________
Rookie RB Classes of 2015-2021
My Model = Players in Tier 1 of my model
Other = Players not in Tier 1 of my model
Random = If you were to select a player at random (so disregarding my model)
1K Yard Season = 1k rushing yards @ 62.5+ ypc
____________________________________


Round 1 RB's

At least 1+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 80% Hit Rate
Other - 60% Hit Rate
Random - 70% Hit Rate

At least 2+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 60% Hit Rate
Other - 20% Hit Rate
Random - 40% Hit Rate

At least 3+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 40% Hit Rate
Other - 20% Hit Rate
Random - 30% Hit Rate



Round 2 RB's

At least 1+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 57% Hit Rate
Other - 38% Hit Rate
Random - 46% Hit Rate

At least 2+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 57% Hit Rate
Other - 13% Hit Rate
Random - 33% Hit Rate

At least 3+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 43% Hit Rate
Other - 13% Hit Rate
Random - 27% Hit Rate


Round 3 RB's

At least 1+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 50% Hit Rate
Other - 21% Hit Rate
Random - 24% Hit Rate

At least 2+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 0% Hit Rate
Other - 5% Hit Rate
Random - 5% Hit Rate

At least 3+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 0% Hit Rate
Other - 0% Hit Rate
Random - 0% Hit Rate

If you’re looking for pure track events, I’d put more stock in the vertical jump (okay, that’s not even a track event) and broad jump results as giving more insight. Quick twitch muscle reaction and explosiveness are more valuable than deep speed to a NFL RB IMO.

And yes, there seems to be an athletic threshold around a 4.70s 40 that is an indicator that a RB may simply not be athletic enough to play in the NFL, though some prolific RBs have run perilously close to that threshold. That’s not an argument I’m making and I’m hoping with the acumen on this board that people understand that.

[murphysxm]

Pats had their HC, GM, and OC at Michigan’s pro day….

As they should. Lots of prospects on the field. They need lots of players.

[FantasyFreak]

Pats had their HC, GM, and OC at Michigan’s pro day….

As they should. Lots of prospects on the field. They need lots of players.

Yep. Michigan won the National Championship and had a really good roster.

[mild]

Pats had their HC, GM, and OC at Michigan’s pro day….

As they should. Lots of prospects on the field. They need lots of players.

JJ McCarthy 3rd overall is the obvious smoke we're playing with here

But in saying that, they're just as motivated to posture like they might take him until the last second if it forces a trade up overpay from another team. The more unreadable you are on the poker table - the better your hand.

[Jrblaha]

Pats had their HC, GM, and OC at Michigan’s pro day….

As they should. Lots of prospects on the field. They need lots of players.

JJ McCarthy 3rd overall is the obvious smoke we're playing with here

But in saying that, they're just as motivated to posture like they might take him until the last second if it forces a trade up overpay from another team. The more unreadable you are on the poker table - the better your hand.

I can’t confidently say that isn’t the 3rd best QB or that we won’t eventually come to that decision sometime in their careers. Signed a biased UofM fan