2024 Combine

[Bronco Billy]

...doing it consistently for a long time will skew heavily towards the NFL and draft capital. They are pretty good at figuring out which players can't play.

Not only that, by drafting a player high there is an organizational incentive to have that player succeed. Everyone looks bad when a highly drafted player face plants. So yes, they are likely better at spotting talent, but they're also going to give highly drafted players more room to fail than lower drafted players.

Not always. The really good organizations figure out who their best players are when the pads go on and those are the guys on the field once the season starts. They recognize that winning supersedes their egos. And that sends a strong message to the rest of the team - we don’t care where you came from, if you’re the best guy at your position you’re going to play.

[Cameron Giles]

...doing it consistently for a long time will skew heavily towards the NFL and draft capital. They are pretty good at figuring out which players can't play.

Not only that, by drafting a player high there is an organizational incentive to have that player succeed. Everyone looks bad when a highly drafted player face plants. So yes, they are likely better at spotting talent, but they're also going to give highly drafted players more room to fail than lower drafted players.

Not always. The really good organizations figure out who their best players are when the pads go on and those are the guys on the field once the season starts. They recognize that winning supersedes their egos. And that sends a strong message to the rest of the team - we don’t care where you came from, if you’re the best guy at your position you’re going to play.

Sure. It's just that the best guy at the position on average usually aligns with draft capital.

This was done five years ago.

https://www.rockmnation.com/2019/2/21/1 ... selections

I took the Associated Press’ first-team All-Pro selections from the past decade at eight positions — quarterback, running back, wideout, tight end, offensive line, defensive line, linebacker and defensive back — and saw how highly they were drafted. Turns out that fully 60 percent of them were first-round draft picks.

Pct First-Rounders
Defensive Line — 80.0
Quarterback — 80.0
Defense — 66.1
Defensive Back — 60.5
Overall — 59.7
Linebacker — 57.9
Offensive Line — 56.0
Offense — 52.7
Wide Receiver — 52.4
Running Back — 47.4
Tight End — 20.0

Average Round Selected
Defensive Line — 1.83
Linebacker — 1.89
Defense — 1.93
Quarterback — 2.00
Defensive Back — 2.05
Running Back — 2.05
Overall — 2.16
Tight End — 2.20
Offensive Line — 2.30
Offense — 2.42
Wide Receiver — 3.33

Average Pick
Defensive Line — 40.1
Linebacker — 43.8
Defense — 43.9
Quarterback — 46.3
Defensive Back — 47.5
Running Back — 49.2
Tight End — 49.5
Overall — 52.7
Offensive Line — 58.7
Offense — 62.4
Wide Receiver — 97.0

More recent study on where Pro Bowl players come from:

https://theathletic.com/3242308/2022/04 ... ysis-2022/

% of Pro Bowl players who went Day 1 and Day 2

WR - 78.8
TE - 76.1
T - 81.5
S - 71.9
RB - 87.1
QB - 88.0
LB - 89.7
G - 80.8
Edge - 75.6
DT - 76.9
CB - 73.7
C - 66.7
Everyone - 79%

Draft capital remains really the only variable that correlates to real life success and fantasy success on average. For every Puka, there's a ton of 5th round WRs who will be out of the NFL in a few years. For every Purdy, there's a ton of Day 3 QBs that will be leading XFL huddles in a few years.