Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[Bronco Billy]

Cowing did have some other great stats, had the highest career YPRR in his time in school. Plus other great stats. So keep that in mind.

Only 3 players hit these thresholds:

- Early Breakout Age of 20 years old or younger with College Dominator of +30%
- Career +2.5 YPRR or greater
- Best College Season +3.2 YPRR

Jacob Cowing (19 yr)
Malik Nabers (20 yr)
MHJ (20 yr)

Cowing's single season best was 3.8 YPRR, the highest. And his last year was 2.55 so must have had a rougher freshman or soph.

ALSO—to pile on Coleman, high drop rate of 7.2. Fifth highest of the elite WRs.

Drop rates for some top WRs in the 2024 #NFLDraft:
• Johnny Wilson: 16.1%
• Javon Baker: 10.6%
• Devontez Walker: 8.5%
• Troy Franklin: 7.3%
• Keon Coleman: 7.2%
• Marvin Harrison Jr: 6.9%
• Ladd McConkey: 6.3%
• Xavier Worthy: 5.4% MEDIAN DROP RATE
• Malik Nabers: 4.9%
• Xavier Legette: 4.8%
• Rome Odunze: 4.8%
• Ja’Lynn Polk: 4.8%
• Brian Thomas Jr: 3.8%
• Adonai Mitchell: 1.7%

Mitchell I keep going back and forth on, man.

Dismiss Coleman at your own risk...

I like Coleman quite a bit, but the question is how dedicated will he be in improving his craft. He’s got the tools to be an alpha WR but he relies way too much on his size and athleticism to the point where he almost looks lazy while running routes and catching. I absolutely hate his lack of effort at times to put 2 hands on the football while catching it. He’s got late hands, which is great, but the 1 handed showboating is going to have to stop going to the next level.

I also wonder why his productivity dropped when he transferred from Mich St to FSU. How come he was only getting 4 catches a game when he showed some of the ability he did after the catch? He’s got some very nice after the catch skills that also showed in returns, so I don’t get why FSU wouldn’t put the ball in his hands more, which again makes me question his reliability and effort. I really wanted to see him do more in differing opportunities.

There’s a lot to like. The size, the athleticism, the open field skills. He understands how to use his size in creating leverage in contested situations. His hands look great when he makes an effort to get both of them to the ball. He needs to learn to run more of the route tree and to sharpen his route running skills. He can sink his hips and get late separation - when he chooses to do so instead of fighting for the ball.

Coleman can be a dominant force at the next level, but he’s got work to do to get there. He’s got to get a 100% effort on all plays mentality and because he hasn’t had it yet he’s got some real refining to do in his game. If he doesn’t have his head around that going to the next level, he could be a huge disappointment where he’ll show up big in a game followed by 3-4 games where he’ll be an afterthought. There’s some boom/bust concerns with him IMO.

[Payton34]

Cowing did have some other great stats, had the highest career YPRR in his time in school. Plus other great stats. So keep that in mind.

Only 3 players hit these thresholds:

- Early Breakout Age of 20 years old or younger with College Dominator of +30%
- Career +2.5 YPRR or greater
- Best College Season +3.2 YPRR

Jacob Cowing (19 yr)
Malik Nabers (20 yr)
MHJ (20 yr)

Cowing's single season best was 3.8 YPRR, the highest. And his last year was 2.55 so must have had a rougher freshman or soph.

ALSO—to pile on Coleman, high drop rate of 7.2. Fifth highest of the elite WRs.

Drop rates for some top WRs in the 2024 #NFLDraft:
• Johnny Wilson: 16.1%
• Javon Baker: 10.6%
• Devontez Walker: 8.5%
• Troy Franklin: 7.3%
• Keon Coleman: 7.2%
• Marvin Harrison Jr: 6.9%
• Ladd McConkey: 6.3%
• Xavier Worthy: 5.4% MEDIAN DROP RATE
• Malik Nabers: 4.9%
• Xavier Legette: 4.8%
• Rome Odunze: 4.8%
• Ja’Lynn Polk: 4.8%
• Brian Thomas Jr: 3.8%
• Adonai Mitchell: 1.7%

Mitchell I keep going back and forth on, man.

Dismiss Coleman at your own risk...

I like Coleman quite a bit, but the question is how dedicated will he be in improving his craft. He’s got the tools to be an alpha WR but he relies way too much on his size and athleticism to the point where he almost looks lazy while running routes and catching. I absolutely hate his lack of effort at times to put 2 hands on the football while catching it. He’s got late hands, which is great, but the 1 handed showboating is going to have to stop going to the next level.

I also wonder why his productivity dropped when he transferred from Mich St to FSU. How come he was only getting 4 catches a game when he showed some of the ability he did after the catch? He’s got some very nice after the catch skills that also showed in returns, so I don’t get why FSU wouldn’t put the ball in his hands more, which again makes me question his reliability and effort. I really wanted to see him do more in differing opportunities.

There’s a lot to like. The size, the athleticism, the open field skills. He understands how to use his size in creating leverage in contested situations. His hands look great when he makes an effort to get both of them to the ball. He needs to learn to run more of the route tree and to sharpen his route running skills. He can sink his hips and get late separation - when he chooses to do so instead of fighting for the ball.

Coleman can be a dominant force at the next level, but he’s got work to do to get there. He’s got to get a 100% effort on all plays mentality and because he hasn’t had it yet he’s got some real refining to do in his game. If he doesn’t have his head around that going to the next level, he could be a huge disappointment where he’ll show up big in a game followed by 3-4 games where he’ll be an afterthought. There’s some boom/bust concerns with him IMO.

From a usage standpoint, was just a lot of mouths to feed in an offense that had a running QB and two quality RBs and Coleman has a top transfer TE to contend with in Jaheem Bell and then WR Johnny Wilson on the other side of him... And then obviously once Travis was hurt, our offense took a bit of a nose dive.

Our gameplans last year baffled me at times. We had the ability to jump on teams early, but seemingly (and frustratingly) chose to attempt to "establish the run" against a lot of lesser opponents. Don't know why. In my eyes it only served to keep opponents in the game longer. I'd have preferred we take the more modern approach of setting up the run with the pass, especially when you have a 6' 7" and a 6' 4" WR that are matchup nightmares for opposing teams...

Anyway, sorry for the extended rant, but the talent was there all year, the usage was odd at times. I can't argue against that point except to say I don't think it had anything to do with "going away from Coleman"...

[wickerkat1212]

Cowing did have some other great stats, had the highest career YPRR in his time in school. Plus other great stats. So keep that in mind.

Only 3 players hit these thresholds:

- Early Breakout Age of 20 years old or younger with College Dominator of +30%
- Career +2.5 YPRR or greater
- Best College Season +3.2 YPRR

Jacob Cowing (19 yr)
Malik Nabers (20 yr)
MHJ (20 yr)

Cowing's single season best was 3.8 YPRR, the highest. And his last year was 2.55 so must have had a rougher freshman or soph.

ALSO—to pile on Coleman, high drop rate of 7.2. Fifth highest of the elite WRs.

Drop rates for some top WRs in the 2024 #NFLDraft:
• Johnny Wilson: 16.1%
• Javon Baker: 10.6%
• Devontez Walker: 8.5%
• Troy Franklin: 7.3%
• Keon Coleman: 7.2%
• Marvin Harrison Jr: 6.9%
• Ladd McConkey: 6.3%
• Xavier Worthy: 5.4% MEDIAN DROP RATE
• Malik Nabers: 4.9%
• Xavier Legette: 4.8%
• Rome Odunze: 4.8%
• Ja’Lynn Polk: 4.8%
• Brian Thomas Jr: 3.8%
• Adonai Mitchell: 1.7%

Mitchell I keep going back and forth on, man.

Dismiss Coleman at your own risk...

In a deep WR class, with lots of options, at his current price, I'm probably not acquiring. So yeah, if you love him, go for it. I've just seen too many red flags already. We'll see.

[jenkins.math]

Right. So if NEP is low on either Maye or Daniels, they need to move up to get their guy. But regardless they need to leave with a QB.

So y’all are saying it’s better to draft a bust because it’s a position of dire need vs just taking the best player? I just can’t get behind that at all. Just trade down and accumulate more assets if you don’t believe in the value there.

Lighting top 3 picks on fire is not the way to build a good team.

Which one(s) is(are) going to be a bust?

Taking the wrong player is never the right move. I don't see how anybody can currently say that Zach Wilson was the right pick for the Jets. Which is what I replied to...

Mahomes was drafted into a great situation (it's less so now, but having Andy Reid is a major bonus). Same with Purdy. Hurts went to a talented roster. Josh Allen really blossomed after the Diggs trade. Lamar went to one of the most stable and well run organizations in all of pro sports. Even Joe Burrow had decent weapons his rookie season and then they doubled down by drafting Chase.

Unless you are really convinced you are drafting a transcendent talent that doesn't need much support you're better off filling out your roster than forcing a pick at QB. You have to give your QB a chance to succeed. Taking a guy you don't believe is a true franchise changer and then putting him on a sub par roster just means you'll be picking another QB in a few years anyway.

[81-]

hypothetical with the 1.01 and 1.07 - SF 12t PPR NON-Prem start10

If JJM rises I'm pretty confident he will go 1.06 to a very QB needy owner. I feel I'd be looking at Odunze/Bowers at 1.07. Say the Bears draft Caleb and Odunze, and I take Caleb with my 1.01. Does that make Odunze more attractive to you for a possible studly young stack? Or would you prefer Bowers to mitigate risk of both 1st round picks getting tanked together? or do you just prefer Odunze or Bowers regardless?

Give me Odunze in this scenario. WR > TE. If you are set at WR and need a TE than i might flip flop

[wickerkat1212]

hypothetical with the 1.01 and 1.07 - SF 12t PPR NON-Prem start10

If JJM rises I'm pretty confident he will go 1.06 to a very QB needy owner. I feel I'd be looking at Odunze/Bowers at 1.07. Say the Bears draft Caleb and Odunze, and I take Caleb with my 1.01. Does that make Odunze more attractive to you for a possible studly young stack? Or would you prefer Bowers to mitigate risk of both 1st round picks getting tanked together? or do you just prefer Odunze or Bowers regardless?

Give me Odunze in this scenario. WR > TE. If you are set at WR and need a TE than i might flip flop

Agree. 100%.

[Bronco Billy]

So y’all are saying it’s better to draft a bust because it’s a position of dire need vs just taking the best player? I just can’t get behind that at all. Just trade down and accumulate more assets if you don’t believe in the value there.

Lighting top 3 picks on fire is not the way to build a good team.

Which one(s) is(are) going to be a bust?

Taking the wrong player is never the right move. I don't see how anybody can currently say that Zach Wilson was the right pick for the Jets. Which is what I replied to...

Mahomes was drafted into a great situation (it's less so now, but having Andy Reid is a major bonus). Same with Purdy. Hurts went to a talented roster. Josh Allen really blossomed after the Diggs trade. Lamar went to one of the most stable and well run organizations in all of pro sports. Even Joe Burrow had decent weapons his rookie season and then they doubled down by drafting Chase.

Unless you are really convinced you are drafting a transcendent talent that doesn't need much support you're better off filling out your roster than forcing a pick at QB. You have to give your QB a chance to succeed. Taking a guy you don't believe is a true franchise changer and then putting him on a sub par roster just means you'll be picking another QB in a few years anyway.

Hindsight is always 20/20. Unfortunately NFL teams can’t avail themselves of it prior to the draft like you can afterwards to make judgments.

I’m not sure how QB is not THE priority in the draft for teams that lack a credible starter. We’ve seen 0 and 1 win teams become playoff teams in a very short time when they improve at QB. There’s no other position in the NFL that has anywhere near the impact that QBs do.

Where does sticking with a subpar QB and drafting at another position get you except one year further down the road without a good starter when there is the possibility of drafting the guy that is going to carry your team out of the dumps? Unless of course you happen to know the future before the draft, which seems to be the premise you’re working with.

[jenkins.math]

Which one(s) is(are) going to be a bust?

Taking the wrong player is never the right move. I don't see how anybody can currently say that Zach Wilson was the right pick for the Jets. Which is what I replied to...

Mahomes was drafted into a great situation (it's less so now, but having Andy Reid is a major bonus). Same with Purdy. Hurts went to a talented roster. Josh Allen really blossomed after the Diggs trade. Lamar went to one of the most stable and well run organizations in all of pro sports. Even Joe Burrow had decent weapons his rookie season and then they doubled down by drafting Chase.

Unless you are really convinced you are drafting a transcendent talent that doesn't need much support you're better off filling out your roster than forcing a pick at QB. You have to give your QB a chance to succeed. Taking a guy you don't believe is a true franchise changer and then putting him on a sub par roster just means you'll be picking another QB in a few years anyway.

Hindsight is always 20/20. Unfortunately NFL teams can’t avail themselves of it prior to the draft like you can afterwards to make judgments.

I’m not sure how QB is not THE priority in the draft for teams that lack a credible starter. We’ve seen 0 and 1 win teams become playoff teams in a very short time when they improve at QB. There’s no other position in the NFL that has anywhere near the impact that QBs do.

Where does sticking with a subpar QB and drafting at another position get you except one year further down the road without a good starter when there is the possibility of drafting the guy that is going to carry your team out of the dumps? Unless of course you happen to know the future before the draft, which seems to be the premise you’re working with.

The same place drafting a bad one gets you. At least you hope you hit on these other players you ranked higher and you don't need your QB to come in and be superman.

Pitt still needs a QB despite spending a first rounder on Pickett 2 years ago. Chicago is already looking to re-roll after Fields (who was taken directly in front of Micah Parsons and Rashawn Slater. Both those guys are positions the Bears have needed since drafting Fields.), Pats are done with Mac Jones, Jets are hoping a 40 year old QB can save them from Zach Wilson, etc.

OP said that Zach Wilson was still the right call even though he busted. I responded that a bad pick is never the correct pick. I guess you are in agreement that Zach Wilson was the correct call as well? Nobody has suggested at knowing the future, so I don't quite understand the point of making up a stance yourself only to argue against it. I guess that is one way to never lose an argument but it's a headscratcher.

[DJB]

Cowing did have some other great stats, had the highest career YPRR in his time in school. Plus other great stats. So keep that in mind.

Only 3 players hit these thresholds:

- Early Breakout Age of 20 years old or younger with College Dominator of +30%
- Career +2.5 YPRR or greater
- Best College Season +3.2 YPRR

Jacob Cowing (19 yr)
Malik Nabers (20 yr)
MHJ (20 yr)

Cowing's single season best was 3.8 YPRR, the highest. And his last year was 2.55 so must have had a rougher freshman or soph.

ALSO—to pile on Coleman, high drop rate of 7.2. Fifth highest of the elite WRs.

Drop rates for some top WRs in the 2024 #NFLDraft:
• Johnny Wilson: 16.1%
• Javon Baker: 10.6%
• Devontez Walker: 8.5%
• Troy Franklin: 7.3%
• Keon Coleman: 7.2%
• Marvin Harrison Jr: 6.9%
• Ladd McConkey: 6.3%
• Xavier Worthy: 5.4% MEDIAN DROP RATE
• Malik Nabers: 4.9%
• Xavier Legette: 4.8%
• Rome Odunze: 4.8%
• Ja’Lynn Polk: 4.8%
• Brian Thomas Jr: 3.8%
• Adonai Mitchell: 1.7%

Mitchell I keep going back and forth on, man.

Bro outstanding post.

Man I my love for A Mitchell continues to grow. Had him as WR6 but he might keep climbing

[wickerkat1212]

Cowing did have some other great stats, had the highest career YPRR in his time in school. Plus other great stats. So keep that in mind.

Only 3 players hit these thresholds:

- Early Breakout Age of 20 years old or younger with College Dominator of +30%
- Career +2.5 YPRR or greater
- Best College Season +3.2 YPRR

Jacob Cowing (19 yr)
Malik Nabers (20 yr)
MHJ (20 yr)

Cowing's single season best was 3.8 YPRR, the highest. And his last year was 2.55 so must have had a rougher freshman or soph.

ALSO—to pile on Coleman, high drop rate of 7.2. Fifth highest of the elite WRs.

Drop rates for some top WRs in the 2024 #NFLDraft:
• Johnny Wilson: 16.1%
• Javon Baker: 10.6%
• Devontez Walker: 8.5%
• Troy Franklin: 7.3%
• Keon Coleman: 7.2%
• Marvin Harrison Jr: 6.9%
• Ladd McConkey: 6.3%
• Xavier Worthy: 5.4% MEDIAN DROP RATE
• Malik Nabers: 4.9%
• Xavier Legette: 4.8%
• Rome Odunze: 4.8%
• Ja’Lynn Polk: 4.8%
• Brian Thomas Jr: 3.8%
• Adonai Mitchell: 1.7%

Mitchell I keep going back and forth on, man.

Bro outstanding post.

Man I my love for A Mitchell continues to grow. Had him as WR6 but he might keep climbing

I had Mitchell as my target late first, early 2nd across both 1 QB and Superflex, but saw a few things that gave me pause. A stat guy I know is working up something that factors all of these in—YPRR, YAC, Drops, Dom, and BOA. That's a nice set of stats to help rank them.

[Bronco Billy]

Taking the wrong player is never the right move. I don't see how anybody can currently say that Zach Wilson was the right pick for the Jets. Which is what I replied to...

Mahomes was drafted into a great situation (it's less so now, but having Andy Reid is a major bonus). Same with Purdy. Hurts went to a talented roster. Josh Allen really blossomed after the Diggs trade. Lamar went to one of the most stable and well run organizations in all of pro sports. Even Joe Burrow had decent weapons his rookie season and then they doubled down by drafting Chase.

Unless you are really convinced you are drafting a transcendent talent that doesn't need much support you're better off filling out your roster than forcing a pick at QB. You have to give your QB a chance to succeed. Taking a guy you don't believe is a true franchise changer and then putting him on a sub par roster just means you'll be picking another QB in a few years anyway.

Hindsight is always 20/20. Unfortunately NFL teams can’t avail themselves of it prior to the draft like you can afterwards to make judgments.

I’m not sure how QB is not THE priority in the draft for teams that lack a credible starter. We’ve seen 0 and 1 win teams become playoff teams in a very short time when they improve at QB. There’s no other position in the NFL that has anywhere near the impact that QBs do.

Where does sticking with a subpar QB and drafting at another position get you except one year further down the road without a good starter when there is the possibility of drafting the guy that is going to carry your team out of the dumps? Unless of course you happen to know the future before the draft, which seems to be the premise you’re working with.

The same place drafting a bad one gets you. At least you hope you hit on these other players you ranked higher and you don't need your QB to come in and be superman.

Pitt still needs a QB despite spending a first rounder on Pickett 2 years ago. Chicago is already looking to re-roll after Fields (who was taken directly in front of Micah Parsons and Rashawn Slater. Both those guys are positions the Bears have needed since drafting Fields.), Pats are done with Mac Jones, Jets are hoping a 40 year old QB can save them from Zach Wilson, etc.

OP said that Zach Wilson was still the right call even though he busted. I responded that a bad pick is never the correct pick. I guess you are in agreement that Zach Wilson was the correct call as well? Nobody has suggested at knowing the future, so I don't quite understand the point of making up a stance yourself only to argue against it. I guess that is one way to never lose an argument but it's a headscratcher.

Of course Zach Wilson was a correct call. He just didn’t work out. That doesn’t mean it wasn’t the right thing to do. The only reason you can say otherwise is because it turned out that he sucked in the NFL. But unless you knew ahead of time that he was going to suck, in which case that it was known he would suck, witf would any team draft him? You’ve got some interesting circular logic going on.

[MacDaddy123]

As an Eagles fan, I'll never get over that Reagor over Jefferson pick.
I was watching that draft live, as usual, and cussed out loud and shut the TV off as soon as that pick happened.

I did not see Jefferson becoming as great as he did, I kind of viewed him as a great, bigger slot WR, like a Keenan Allen.
However, I knew at the time that Jefferson was a much better WR than Reagor.

Honest question - is Reagor before Jefferson worse than Kevin Dyson before Randy Moss. Asking for a Titans fan friend . . .

Sigh, I guess not.
I guess these disasters happen to all front offices.

Which is why I laugh so hard when people tell me that NFL front offices are so much smarter than us fantasy managers, so we should just trust NFL draft capital.

True story: During a 2020 rookie draft, 1 QB, I had pick 1.07, slow draft.
I spent hours banging my head against the wall over Jeudy or Jefferson, Lamb was the only WR off the board here.
My thinking was Jefferson was walking into more immediate work, with Diggs off to Buffalo, but Jeudy was the better WR long term.
So I took Jeudy in this dynasty rookie draft, but had Jefferson everywhere in my Redraft leagues.

Then I stood in shock as I watched Aiyuk, Reagor, Higgins, and Pittman all go off the board before Jefferson.
I was trying to trade up from 2.01 to grab Jefferson, but no one was accepting any offers.
Jefferson finally went at 1.12, just before my pick, as I died a little inside.

[MacDaddy123]

I think the most intriguing debate this off-season is Nabers VS Odunze.

I admit I watched Odunze more than Nabers so far, but man, Odunze is an absolute baller and close to MHJ for me. I haven’t felt quite as high on Nabers, but will watch more film.

Nabers does seem to have a crazy analytics profile and productivity. I’d love to hear data driven or film driven opinions, on these two WRs.

That is no debate at all for me, Nabers is the clear winner.
I have only seen 2 better WR prospects than Nabers in the past 8 draft classes, MHJ and Chase.
For me, Nabers is in the same tier as MHJ, 1 A/1B.

I have Odunze in tier 3 with Brian Thomas Jr. and Troy Franklin.
I like Odunze, he is my WR3, but Nabers is much closer to MHJ than Odunze, IMO.

[MacDaddy123]

Yeah, these mocks are what got me thinking about it. I assumed MHJ to ARI, does Nabers go there now? I really hope NEP takes a QB though. Just trying to get a sense of MHJ is landing spot proof.

I have seen quite a few mocks now sending MHJ to NEP at 1.03, then have NEP taking Bo Nix with their 2.03 pick.
Who knows? It's all just pudd pulling games for now.

[Johnny Canuck]

Even if MHjr goes to NE I think he’ll be hyper targeted and still be a fine play for his rookie season. BB is no longer there, and they will likely try to bring in a vet qb to pair with a later rookie or Zappe.

IF he goes to NE, my very very optimistic/ridiculous career arc I’m envisioning is this…

Year 1: Garrett Wilson level
Year 2: Ja’Marr Chase level
Year 3: Number #1 WR for the next 5-8 years