Yepwickerkat1212 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:45 amTrueYouMightDieTryin wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:41 amThey could go ALT. Build through the trenches. It's the smarter way these days.wickerkat1212 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:37 am Yeah, these mocks are what got me thinking about it. I assumed MHJ to ARI, does Nabers go there now? I really hope NEP takes a QB though. Just trying to get a sense of MHJ is landing spot proof.
Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
Uh huhYouMightDieTryin wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:50 amYepwickerkat1212 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:45 amTrueYouMightDieTryin wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:41 am
They could go ALT. Build through the trenches. It's the smarter way these days.
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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
More red flags...(extra large for the visual impaired)
Source: https://x.com/kyle_borg/status/1759610678048960694?s=20
Source: https://x.com/kyle_borg/status/1759610678048960694?s=20
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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
Cowing did have some other great stats, had the highest career YPRR in his time in school. Plus other great stats. So keep that in mind.
Only 3 players hit these thresholds:
- Early Breakout Age of 20 years old or younger with College Dominator of +30%
- Career +2.5 YPRR or greater
- Best College Season +3.2 YPRR
Jacob Cowing (19 yr)
Malik Nabers (20 yr)
MHJ (20 yr)
Cowing's single season best was 3.8 YPRR, the highest. And his last year was 2.55 so must have had a rougher freshman or soph.
ALSO—to pile on Coleman, high drop rate of 7.2. Fifth highest of the elite WRs.
Drop rates for some top WRs in the 2024 #NFLDraft:
• Johnny Wilson: 16.1%
• Javon Baker: 10.6%
• Devontez Walker: 8.5%
• Troy Franklin: 7.3%
• Keon Coleman: 7.2%
• Marvin Harrison Jr: 6.9%
• Ladd McConkey: 6.3%
• Xavier Worthy: 5.4% MEDIAN DROP RATE
• Malik Nabers: 4.9%
• Xavier Legette: 4.8%
• Rome Odunze: 4.8%
• Ja’Lynn Polk: 4.8%
• Brian Thomas Jr: 3.8%
• Adonai Mitchell: 1.7%
Mitchell I keep going back and forth on, man.
Only 3 players hit these thresholds:
- Early Breakout Age of 20 years old or younger with College Dominator of +30%
- Career +2.5 YPRR or greater
- Best College Season +3.2 YPRR
Jacob Cowing (19 yr)
Malik Nabers (20 yr)
MHJ (20 yr)
Cowing's single season best was 3.8 YPRR, the highest. And his last year was 2.55 so must have had a rougher freshman or soph.
ALSO—to pile on Coleman, high drop rate of 7.2. Fifth highest of the elite WRs.
Drop rates for some top WRs in the 2024 #NFLDraft:
• Johnny Wilson: 16.1%
• Javon Baker: 10.6%
• Devontez Walker: 8.5%
• Troy Franklin: 7.3%
• Keon Coleman: 7.2%
• Marvin Harrison Jr: 6.9%
• Ladd McConkey: 6.3%
• Xavier Worthy: 5.4% MEDIAN DROP RATE
• Malik Nabers: 4.9%
• Xavier Legette: 4.8%
• Rome Odunze: 4.8%
• Ja’Lynn Polk: 4.8%
• Brian Thomas Jr: 3.8%
• Adonai Mitchell: 1.7%
Mitchell I keep going back and forth on, man.
D3:
QB—Allen, Pickett RB—Kamara, Jacobs, ZWhite, Edwards, Ford, Warren WR—Lamb, Olave, DJM, Puka, Tillman, Marshall, Jefferson, Robinson, Tucker TE—Ferguson, Schoon, Likely, Smith, Washington, Kraft PK—Prater DEF—BAL
D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC, Hall RB—Bijan, Kamara, Conner, Gainwell, Gainwell, Foreman, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin, Murray WR—Jefferson, Hill, Adams, Allen, Tillman, Woods TE—Kelce, Kmet, Conklin PK—Butker DEF—PIT
Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield RB—Bijan, Kamara, Allgeier, Singletary, Mostert, BRob, Warren, Rodriguez, Spiller WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, MBrown, Myers, Reynold, Jones TE—Kmet, Likely, Kraft, Conklin, Hurst, Hudson PK—Elliott DEF—PHI
Superflex 2:
QB: Goff, Cousins, Wentz, White; RB: Bijan, BRob, ZWhite, Allgeier, McLaughlin WR: DJM, Higgins, JSN, Downs, RMoore, Atwell, SMoore, PCampbell, DPJ, ATP, Hutchinson, Iosivas, Devante, CJones TE: Ferguson, Kraft, Trautman, Tremble
QB—Allen, Pickett RB—Kamara, Jacobs, ZWhite, Edwards, Ford, Warren WR—Lamb, Olave, DJM, Puka, Tillman, Marshall, Jefferson, Robinson, Tucker TE—Ferguson, Schoon, Likely, Smith, Washington, Kraft PK—Prater DEF—BAL
D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC, Hall RB—Bijan, Kamara, Conner, Gainwell, Gainwell, Foreman, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin, Murray WR—Jefferson, Hill, Adams, Allen, Tillman, Woods TE—Kelce, Kmet, Conklin PK—Butker DEF—PIT
Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield RB—Bijan, Kamara, Allgeier, Singletary, Mostert, BRob, Warren, Rodriguez, Spiller WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, MBrown, Myers, Reynold, Jones TE—Kmet, Likely, Kraft, Conklin, Hurst, Hudson PK—Elliott DEF—PHI
Superflex 2:
QB: Goff, Cousins, Wentz, White; RB: Bijan, BRob, ZWhite, Allgeier, McLaughlin WR: DJM, Higgins, JSN, Downs, RMoore, Atwell, SMoore, PCampbell, DPJ, ATP, Hutchinson, Iosivas, Devante, CJones TE: Ferguson, Kraft, Trautman, Tremble
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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
As an Eagles fan, I'll never get over that Reagor over Jefferson pick.
I was watching that draft live, as usual, and cussed out loud and shut the TV off as soon as that pick happened.
I did not see Jefferson becoming as great as he did, I kind of viewed him as a great, bigger slot WR, like a Keenan Allen.
However, I knew at the time that Jefferson was a much better WR than Reagor.
I was watching that draft live, as usual, and cussed out loud and shut the TV off as soon as that pick happened.
I did not see Jefferson becoming as great as he did, I kind of viewed him as a great, bigger slot WR, like a Keenan Allen.
However, I knew at the time that Jefferson was a much better WR than Reagor.
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
Honest question - is Reagor before Jefferson worse than Kevin Dyson before Randy Moss. Asking for a Titans fan friend . . .MacDaddy123 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 8:18 pm As an Eagles fan, I'll never get over that Reagor over Jefferson pick.
I was watching that draft live, as usual, and cussed out loud and shut the TV off as soon as that pick happened.
I did not see Jefferson becoming as great as he did, I kind of viewed him as a great, bigger slot WR, like a Keenan Allen.
However, I knew at the time that Jefferson was a much better WR than Reagor.
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
NEP can't pass on a QB. They'd be crazy. When teams get the chance to draft a QB early (like this) they need to do it. Example - the Jets made the right call in taking a QB when they selected Z.Wilson. He busted, but that's ok. It's better to swing at that pitch.
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
I totally agree with this. When a team is in the top 3 and needs a QB, they have to take a QB. If there are only two worthy rookie QBs, then the third team has to trade up. These opportunities don't come along often.tstafford wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 4:00 amNEP can't pass on a QB. They'd be crazy. When teams get the chance to draft a QB early (like this) they need to do it. Example - the Jets made the right call in taking a QB when they selected Z.Wilson. He busted, but that's ok. It's better to swing at that pitch.
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, MWilliams, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion
TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, MWilliams, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion
TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
Right. So if NEP is low on either Maye or Daniels, they need to move up to get their guy. But regardless they need to leave with a QB.Anteaters wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 4:23 amI totally agree with this. When a team is in the top 3 and needs a QB, they have to take a QB. If there are only two worthy rookie QBs, then the third team has to trade up. These opportunities don't come along often.tstafford wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 4:00 amNEP can't pass on a QB. They'd be crazy. When teams get the chance to draft a QB early (like this) they need to do it. Example - the Jets made the right call in taking a QB when they selected Z.Wilson. He busted, but that's ok. It's better to swing at that pitch.
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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
So y’all are saying it’s better to draft a bust because it’s a position of dire need vs just taking the best player? I just can’t get behind that at all. Just trade down and accumulate more assets if you don’t believe in the value there.tstafford wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 4:28 amRight. So if NEP is low on either Maye or Daniels, they need to move up to get their guy. But regardless they need to leave with a QB.Anteaters wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 4:23 amI totally agree with this. When a team is in the top 3 and needs a QB, they have to take a QB. If there are only two worthy rookie QBs, then the third team has to trade up. These opportunities don't come along often.tstafford wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 4:00 am
NEP can't pass on a QB. They'd be crazy. When teams get the chance to draft a QB early (like this) they need to do it. Example - the Jets made the right call in taking a QB when they selected Z.Wilson. He busted, but that's ok. It's better to swing at that pitch.
Lighting top 3 picks on fire is not the way to build a good team.
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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
Which one(s) is(are) going to be a bust?jenkins.math wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 6:51 amSo y’all are saying it’s better to draft a bust because it’s a position of dire need vs just taking the best player? I just can’t get behind that at all. Just trade down and accumulate more assets if you don’t believe in the value there.
Lighting top 3 picks on fire is not the way to build a good team.
Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
Dismiss Coleman at your own risk...wickerkat1212 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 2:32 pm Cowing did have some other great stats, had the highest career YPRR in his time in school. Plus other great stats. So keep that in mind.
Only 3 players hit these thresholds:
- Early Breakout Age of 20 years old or younger with College Dominator of +30%
- Career +2.5 YPRR or greater
- Best College Season +3.2 YPRR
Jacob Cowing (19 yr)
Malik Nabers (20 yr)
MHJ (20 yr)
Cowing's single season best was 3.8 YPRR, the highest. And his last year was 2.55 so must have had a rougher freshman or soph.
ALSO—to pile on Coleman, high drop rate of 7.2. Fifth highest of the elite WRs.
Drop rates for some top WRs in the 2024 #NFLDraft:
• Johnny Wilson: 16.1%
• Javon Baker: 10.6%
• Devontez Walker: 8.5%
• Troy Franklin: 7.3%
• Keon Coleman: 7.2%
• Marvin Harrison Jr: 6.9%
• Ladd McConkey: 6.3%
• Xavier Worthy: 5.4% MEDIAN DROP RATE
• Malik Nabers: 4.9%
• Xavier Legette: 4.8%
• Rome Odunze: 4.8%
• Ja’Lynn Polk: 4.8%
• Brian Thomas Jr: 3.8%
• Adonai Mitchell: 1.7%
Mitchell I keep going back and forth on, man.
12 teams, 6pts all TDs, 1/2 pt PPR. 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1K, 1D, 2 FLEX RB/WR/TE
QBs - P Mahomes,
RBs - Bijan, J Jacobs, K Walker, B Hall,
WRs - AJ Brown, J Waddle, DJ Moore, T Higgins, D London, Smith-Njigba, J Downs, AT Perry
TEs - D Kincaid, Musgrave
Ks - Boswell, McPherson
Ds - Texans, Jets
2024 - 3 1st rounders... Picks 1.5, 1.7, 1.11… 1 2nd 2.17… 1 3rd 3.31…
QBs - P Mahomes,
RBs - Bijan, J Jacobs, K Walker, B Hall,
WRs - AJ Brown, J Waddle, DJ Moore, T Higgins, D London, Smith-Njigba, J Downs, AT Perry
TEs - D Kincaid, Musgrave
Ks - Boswell, McPherson
Ds - Texans, Jets
2024 - 3 1st rounders... Picks 1.5, 1.7, 1.11… 1 2nd 2.17… 1 3rd 3.31…
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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
hypothetical with the 1.01 and 1.07 - SF 12t PPR NON-Prem start10
If JJM rises I'm pretty confident he will go 1.06 to a very QB needy owner. I feel I'd be looking at Odunze/Bowers at 1.07. Say the Bears draft Caleb and Odunze, and I take Caleb with my 1.01. Does that make Odunze more attractive to you for a possible studly young stack? Or would you prefer Bowers to mitigate risk of both 1st round picks getting tanked together? or do you just prefer Odunze or Bowers regardless?
If JJM rises I'm pretty confident he will go 1.06 to a very QB needy owner. I feel I'd be looking at Odunze/Bowers at 1.07. Say the Bears draft Caleb and Odunze, and I take Caleb with my 1.01. Does that make Odunze more attractive to you for a possible studly young stack? Or would you prefer Bowers to mitigate risk of both 1st round picks getting tanked together? or do you just prefer Odunze or Bowers regardless?
SF - PPR - 12t - start10
Notable Assets in Rebuild
QB: Mahomes - Levis - Rudolph
RB: K Mitchell - J McLaughlin - C Rodriguez - Z Evans
WR: AJB - M Pittman- R Doubs - E Moore - Shaheed - C Tillman- A Iosivas
TE: MAndrews - Kraft
'24: 1.1, 1.7, 2.1, 2.6, 2.10, 3.1, 3.10
‘25: 1 1st, 2 2nds, 2 3rds
2nd year DFF
SF - PPR - 12t - start10
QB: TLaw - Purdy - Goff
RB: Chubb - D Montgomery - D Singletary - A Mattison - K Miller - J Hill
WR: CeeDee - Aiyuk - Rice - Godwin - J Reed - E Moore
TE: Kittle - Kincaid - Chig
picks: 1.09, 2.11
Notable Assets in Rebuild
QB: Mahomes - Levis - Rudolph
RB: K Mitchell - J McLaughlin - C Rodriguez - Z Evans
WR: AJB - M Pittman- R Doubs - E Moore - Shaheed - C Tillman- A Iosivas
TE: MAndrews - Kraft
'24: 1.1, 1.7, 2.1, 2.6, 2.10, 3.1, 3.10
‘25: 1 1st, 2 2nds, 2 3rds
2nd year DFF
SF - PPR - 12t - start10
QB: TLaw - Purdy - Goff
RB: Chubb - D Montgomery - D Singletary - A Mattison - K Miller - J Hill
WR: CeeDee - Aiyuk - Rice - Godwin - J Reed - E Moore
TE: Kittle - Kincaid - Chig
picks: 1.09, 2.11
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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
I like the idea of the stack! I don’t have any data on if it becomes an advantage but I have AJB/Hurts, a league mate has Tyreek/Tua and another Kelce/Mahomes. Other teams take notice of the stacks, so getting a young duo is promising imo.yinzername wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 8:03 am hypothetical with the 1.01 and 1.07 - SF 12t PPR NON-Prem start10
If JJM rises I'm pretty confident he will go 1.06 to a very QB needy owner. I feel I'd be looking at Odunze/Bowers at 1.07. Say the Bears draft Caleb and Odunze, and I take Caleb with my 1.01. Does that make Odunze more attractive to you for a possible studly young stack? Or would you prefer Bowers to mitigate risk of both 1st round picks getting tanked together? or do you just prefer Odunze or Bowers regardless?
12 Team - PPR - 30man (2 IR) - 6pt PPTD- 1 QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 Flex - 1 TE
QB: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Aidan O'Connell
RB: McCaffrey, Jacobs, Barkley, Zamir White, Jaleel McLaughlin, Dowdle, Zach Evans, Dobbins
WR: AJB, London, Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Rashee Rice, Ridley, McLaurin, Dotson, Rashod Bateman
TE: Mandrews, Pitts, Likely, Otton
2024: 1.01, 1.07
2025: 3x 1st
Champ: 2020, 2021
Year 9 of my league
QB: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Aidan O'Connell
RB: McCaffrey, Jacobs, Barkley, Zamir White, Jaleel McLaughlin, Dowdle, Zach Evans, Dobbins
WR: AJB, London, Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Rashee Rice, Ridley, McLaurin, Dotson, Rashod Bateman
TE: Mandrews, Pitts, Likely, Otton
2024: 1.01, 1.07
2025: 3x 1st
Champ: 2020, 2021
Year 9 of my league
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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread
I think the most intriguing debate this off-season is Nabers VS Odunze.
I admit I watched Odunze more than Nabers so far, but man, Odunze is an absolute baller and close to MHJ for me. I haven’t felt quite as high on Nabers, but will watch more film.
Nabers does seem to have a crazy analytics profile and productivity. I’d love to hear data driven or film driven opinions, on these two WRs.
I admit I watched Odunze more than Nabers so far, but man, Odunze is an absolute baller and close to MHJ for me. I haven’t felt quite as high on Nabers, but will watch more film.
Nabers does seem to have a crazy analytics profile and productivity. I’d love to hear data driven or film driven opinions, on these two WRs.
12 Team - PPR - 30man (2 IR) - 6pt PPTD- 1 QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 Flex - 1 TE
QB: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Aidan O'Connell
RB: McCaffrey, Jacobs, Barkley, Zamir White, Jaleel McLaughlin, Dowdle, Zach Evans, Dobbins
WR: AJB, London, Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Rashee Rice, Ridley, McLaurin, Dotson, Rashod Bateman
TE: Mandrews, Pitts, Likely, Otton
2024: 1.01, 1.07
2025: 3x 1st
Champ: 2020, 2021
Year 9 of my league
QB: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Aidan O'Connell
RB: McCaffrey, Jacobs, Barkley, Zamir White, Jaleel McLaughlin, Dowdle, Zach Evans, Dobbins
WR: AJB, London, Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Rashee Rice, Ridley, McLaurin, Dotson, Rashod Bateman
TE: Mandrews, Pitts, Likely, Otton
2024: 1.01, 1.07
2025: 3x 1st
Champ: 2020, 2021
Year 9 of my league
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