Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[YouMightDieTryin]

Yeah, these mocks are what got me thinking about it. I assumed MHJ to ARI, does Nabers go there now? I really hope NEP takes a QB though. Just trying to get a sense of MHJ is landing spot proof.

They could go ALT. Build through the trenches. It's the smarter way these days.

True

Yep

[dynastyninja]

They could go ALT. Build through the trenches. It's the smarter way these days.

True

Yep

Uh huh

[YouMightDieTryin]

More red flags...(extra large for the visual impaired)


Source: https://x.com/kyle_borg/status/1759610678048960694?s=20

[wickerkat1212]

Cowing did have some other great stats, had the highest career YPRR in his time in school. Plus other great stats. So keep that in mind.

Only 3 players hit these thresholds:

- Early Breakout Age of 20 years old or younger with College Dominator of +30%
- Career +2.5 YPRR or greater
- Best College Season +3.2 YPRR

Jacob Cowing (19 yr)
Malik Nabers (20 yr)
MHJ (20 yr)

Cowing's single season best was 3.8 YPRR, the highest. And his last year was 2.55 so must have had a rougher freshman or soph.

ALSO—to pile on Coleman, high drop rate of 7.2. Fifth highest of the elite WRs.

Drop rates for some top WRs in the 2024 #NFLDraft:
• Johnny Wilson: 16.1%
• Javon Baker: 10.6%
• Devontez Walker: 8.5%
• Troy Franklin: 7.3%
• Keon Coleman: 7.2%
• Marvin Harrison Jr: 6.9%
• Ladd McConkey: 6.3%
• Xavier Worthy: 5.4% MEDIAN DROP RATE
• Malik Nabers: 4.9%
• Xavier Legette: 4.8%
• Rome Odunze: 4.8%
• Ja’Lynn Polk: 4.8%
• Brian Thomas Jr: 3.8%
• Adonai Mitchell: 1.7%

Mitchell I keep going back and forth on, man.

[MacDaddy123]

As an Eagles fan, I'll never get over that Reagor over Jefferson pick.
I was watching that draft live, as usual, and cussed out loud and shut the TV off as soon as that pick happened.

I did not see Jefferson becoming as great as he did, I kind of viewed him as a great, bigger slot WR, like a Keenan Allen.
However, I knew at the time that Jefferson was a much better WR than Reagor.

[tstafford]

As an Eagles fan, I'll never get over that Reagor over Jefferson pick.
I was watching that draft live, as usual, and cussed out loud and shut the TV off as soon as that pick happened.

I did not see Jefferson becoming as great as he did, I kind of viewed him as a great, bigger slot WR, like a Keenan Allen.
However, I knew at the time that Jefferson was a much better WR than Reagor.

Honest question - is Reagor before Jefferson worse than Kevin Dyson before Randy Moss. Asking for a Titans fan friend . . .

[tstafford]

I don't see NE passing on a QB unless they bring in a guy like Baker, Cousins, or possibly Jimmy G. Because of that, I have zero concerns with MHJ going there. Theres no target competition they aren't taking him at #3 overall to not pepper him with targets.

NEP can't pass on a QB. They'd be crazy. When teams get the chance to draft a QB early (like this) they need to do it. Example - the Jets made the right call in taking a QB when they selected Z.Wilson. He busted, but that's ok. It's better to swing at that pitch.

[Anteaters]

I don't see NE passing on a QB unless they bring in a guy like Baker, Cousins, or possibly Jimmy G. Because of that, I have zero concerns with MHJ going there. Theres no target competition they aren't taking him at #3 overall to not pepper him with targets.

NEP can't pass on a QB. They'd be crazy. When teams get the chance to draft a QB early (like this) they need to do it. Example - the Jets made the right call in taking a QB when they selected Z.Wilson. He busted, but that's ok. It's better to swing at that pitch.

I totally agree with this. When a team is in the top 3 and needs a QB, they have to take a QB. If there are only two worthy rookie QBs, then the third team has to trade up. These opportunities don't come along often.

[tstafford]

I don't see NE passing on a QB unless they bring in a guy like Baker, Cousins, or possibly Jimmy G. Because of that, I have zero concerns with MHJ going there. Theres no target competition they aren't taking him at #3 overall to not pepper him with targets.

NEP can't pass on a QB. They'd be crazy. When teams get the chance to draft a QB early (like this) they need to do it. Example - the Jets made the right call in taking a QB when they selected Z.Wilson. He busted, but that's ok. It's better to swing at that pitch.

I totally agree with this. When a team is in the top 3 and needs a QB, they have to take a QB. If there are only two worthy rookie QBs, then the third team has to trade up. These opportunities don't come along often.

Right. So if NEP is low on either Maye or Daniels, they need to move up to get their guy. But regardless they need to leave with a QB.

[jenkins.math]

NEP can't pass on a QB. They'd be crazy. When teams get the chance to draft a QB early (like this) they need to do it. Example - the Jets made the right call in taking a QB when they selected Z.Wilson. He busted, but that's ok. It's better to swing at that pitch.

I totally agree with this. When a team is in the top 3 and needs a QB, they have to take a QB. If there are only two worthy rookie QBs, then the third team has to trade up. These opportunities don't come along often.

Right. So if NEP is low on either Maye or Daniels, they need to move up to get their guy. But regardless they need to leave with a QB.

So y’all are saying it’s better to draft a bust because it’s a position of dire need vs just taking the best player? I just can’t get behind that at all. Just trade down and accumulate more assets if you don’t believe in the value there.

Lighting top 3 picks on fire is not the way to build a good team.

[Bronco Billy]

I totally agree with this. When a team is in the top 3 and needs a QB, they have to take a QB. If there are only two worthy rookie QBs, then the third team has to trade up. These opportunities don't come along often.

Right. So if NEP is low on either Maye or Daniels, they need to move up to get their guy. But regardless they need to leave with a QB.

So y’all are saying it’s better to draft a bust because it’s a position of dire need vs just taking the best player? I just can’t get behind that at all. Just trade down and accumulate more assets if you don’t believe in the value there.

Lighting top 3 picks on fire is not the way to build a good team.

Which one(s) is(are) going to be a bust?

[Payton34]

Cowing did have some other great stats, had the highest career YPRR in his time in school. Plus other great stats. So keep that in mind.

Only 3 players hit these thresholds:

- Early Breakout Age of 20 years old or younger with College Dominator of +30%
- Career +2.5 YPRR or greater
- Best College Season +3.2 YPRR

Jacob Cowing (19 yr)
Malik Nabers (20 yr)
MHJ (20 yr)

Cowing's single season best was 3.8 YPRR, the highest. And his last year was 2.55 so must have had a rougher freshman or soph.

ALSO—to pile on Coleman, high drop rate of 7.2. Fifth highest of the elite WRs.

Drop rates for some top WRs in the 2024 #NFLDraft:
• Johnny Wilson: 16.1%
• Javon Baker: 10.6%
• Devontez Walker: 8.5%
• Troy Franklin: 7.3%
• Keon Coleman: 7.2%
• Marvin Harrison Jr: 6.9%
• Ladd McConkey: 6.3%
• Xavier Worthy: 5.4% MEDIAN DROP RATE
• Malik Nabers: 4.9%
• Xavier Legette: 4.8%
• Rome Odunze: 4.8%
• Ja’Lynn Polk: 4.8%
• Brian Thomas Jr: 3.8%
• Adonai Mitchell: 1.7%

Mitchell I keep going back and forth on, man.

Dismiss Coleman at your own risk...

[yinzername]

hypothetical with the 1.01 and 1.07 - SF 12t PPR NON-Prem start10

If JJM rises I'm pretty confident he will go 1.06 to a very QB needy owner. I feel I'd be looking at Odunze/Bowers at 1.07. Say the Bears draft Caleb and Odunze, and I take Caleb with my 1.01. Does that make Odunze more attractive to you for a possible studly young stack? Or would you prefer Bowers to mitigate risk of both 1st round picks getting tanked together? or do you just prefer Odunze or Bowers regardless?

[gogobradyarm]

hypothetical with the 1.01 and 1.07 - SF 12t PPR NON-Prem start10

If JJM rises I'm pretty confident he will go 1.06 to a very QB needy owner. I feel I'd be looking at Odunze/Bowers at 1.07. Say the Bears draft Caleb and Odunze, and I take Caleb with my 1.01. Does that make Odunze more attractive to you for a possible studly young stack? Or would you prefer Bowers to mitigate risk of both 1st round picks getting tanked together? or do you just prefer Odunze or Bowers regardless?

I like the idea of the stack! I don’t have any data on if it becomes an advantage but I have AJB/Hurts, a league mate has Tyreek/Tua and another Kelce/Mahomes. Other teams take notice of the stacks, so getting a young duo is promising imo.

[gogobradyarm]

I think the most intriguing debate this off-season is Nabers VS Odunze.

I admit I watched Odunze more than Nabers so far, but man, Odunze is an absolute baller and close to MHJ for me. I haven’t felt quite as high on Nabers, but will watch more film.

Nabers does seem to have a crazy analytics profile and productivity. I’d love to hear data driven or film driven opinions, on these two WRs.