Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[yinzername]

I’m appreciating this talk about Thomas. Someone I need to look into and maybe slide down. I currently have him at WR4 mostly just cause of consensus. And I feel like the talk around Franklin has been positive. Might need to flip flop them and perhaps push Thomas down a bit further even

[YouMightDieTryin]

I’m appreciating this talk about Thomas. Someone I need to look into and maybe slide down. I currently have him at WR4 mostly just cause of consensus. And I feel like the talk around Franklin has been positive. Might need to flip flop them and perhaps push Thomas down a bit further even

I'm probably way off, but he gives me Aiyuk vibes. Underrated value until it's too late.

[BabyChark23]

I’m appreciating this talk about Thomas. Someone I need to look into and maybe slide down. I currently have him at WR4 mostly just cause of consensus. And I feel like the talk around Franklin has been positive. Might need to flip flop them and perhaps push Thomas down a bit further even

I'm probably way off, but he gives me Aiyuk vibes. Underrated value until it's too late.

Thomas or Franklin?

[mild]

I'm not a scout just sharing profiles of players that I'm starting to see red flags on, that's all.

At a certain point, for ME, guys can be TOO tall and skinny in the NFL.

Can't wait for you to get to Troy Franklin then

[wickerkat1212]

I'm not a scout just sharing profiles of players that I'm starting to see red flags on, that's all.

At a certain point, for ME, guys can be TOO tall and skinny in the NFL.

Can't wait for you to get to Troy Franklin then

Says 6'3" for me on Franklin, which is fine. 187 is a bit light, but he's not 6"5" and 187. We don't want a Kevin White, bent in half situation here.

[YouMightDieTryin]

I’m appreciating this talk about Thomas. Someone I need to look into and maybe slide down. I currently have him at WR4 mostly just cause of consensus. And I feel like the talk around Franklin has been positive. Might need to flip flop them and perhaps push Thomas down a bit further even

I'm probably way off, but he gives me Aiyuk vibes. Underrated value until it's too late.

Thomas or Franklin?

My apologies. Thomas Jr. It's a lazy comparison. Thomas just uses his long arms effectively like Aiyuk does. I also like how Thomas gets off the line, tracks the ball (even over the shoulder catches), and doesn't body catch often. The height scares people, but I bet he measures more at 6'3. Managers want that prototype WR these days, but there just isn't a definitive mold anymore.

[Mike11]

I have some concerns over some of Thomas Jr.'s metrics. For example for college WRs against zone coverage there is a metric that looks at Yards per Route Run (X axis) vs. Targeted passer rating. This charts WRs since 2018 and there is a very important threshold to hit, 2.3 Yards per Route Run. I'm not exaggerating when I say zero WRs have been under that threshold and been good. Thomas Jr. luckily has a very high targeted passer rating stat but this is a huge red flag for me.

Take a look https://x.com/fball_insights/status/175 ... 22287?s=20

Worries me about Legette, Mitchell, and Coleman too

[wickerkat1212]

I have some concerns over some of Thomas Jr.'s metrics. For example for college WRs against zone coverage there is a metric that looks at Yards per Route Run (X axis) vs. Targeted passer rating. This charts WRs since 2018 and there is a very important threshold to hit, 2.3 Yards per Route Run. I'm not exaggerating when I say zero WRs have been under that threshold and been good. Thomas Jr. luckily has a very high targeted passer rating stat but this is a huge red flag for me.

Take a look https://x.com/fball_insights/status/175 ... 22287?s=20

Worries me about Legette, Mitchell, and Coleman too

Exactly. And that's part of why I have red flags on Legette and Coleman in addition to Thomas. The Mitchell stat was new to me, I was previously big on him, but that's lessened my love for him. I know it's one stat, but it's an important one.

[Cameron Giles]

I have some concerns over some of Thomas Jr.'s metrics. For example for college WRs against zone coverage there is a metric that looks at Yards per Route Run (X axis) vs. Targeted passer rating. This charts WRs since 2018 and there is a very important threshold to hit, 2.3 Yards per Route Run. I'm not exaggerating when I say zero WRs have been under that threshold and been good. Thomas Jr. luckily has a very high targeted passer rating stat but this is a huge red flag for me.

Take a look https://x.com/fball_insights/status/175 ... 22287?s=20

Worries me about Legette, Mitchell, and Coleman too

Exactly. And that's part of why I have red flags on Legette and Coleman in addition to Thomas. The Mitchell stat was new to me, I was previously big on him, but that's lessened my love for him. I know it's one stat, but it's an important one.

I said it earlier, but be careful about using any stat as a single point of doubt or optimism. The information is good, but it's really about how you use it in conjunction with other data.

[wickerkat1212]

I have some concerns over some of Thomas Jr.'s metrics. For example for college WRs against zone coverage there is a metric that looks at Yards per Route Run (X axis) vs. Targeted passer rating. This charts WRs since 2018 and there is a very important threshold to hit, 2.3 Yards per Route Run. I'm not exaggerating when I say zero WRs have been under that threshold and been good. Thomas Jr. luckily has a very high targeted passer rating stat but this is a huge red flag for me.

Take a look https://x.com/fball_insights/status/175 ... 22287?s=20

Worries me about Legette, Mitchell, and Coleman too

Exactly. And that's part of why I have red flags on Legette and Coleman in addition to Thomas. The Mitchell stat was new to me, I was previously big on him, but that's lessened my love for him. I know it's one stat, but it's an important one.

I said it earlier, but be careful about using any stat as a single point of doubt or optimism. The information is good, but it's really about how you use it in conjunction with other data.

Sure. Of course. I'm taking into account other things. Draft capital as well as BOA, drop rate, you name it. What I liked about THIS chart is you can see the bulk of WRs in the upper right are big names, breakout WRs. And there is Puka, too. So guys that are lower left, they give pause. It's just one red flag (or elite trait) I use, but if I get 2, 3, 4, red flags I tend to avoid. Nothing is foolproof of course.

[Mike11]

Exactly. And that's part of why I have red flags on Legette and Coleman in addition to Thomas. The Mitchell stat was new to me, I was previously big on him, but that's lessened my love for him. I know it's one stat, but it's an important one.

I said it earlier, but be careful about using any stat as a single point of doubt or optimism. The information is good, but it's really about how you use it in conjunction with other data.

Sure. Of course. I'm taking into account other things. Draft capital as well as BOA, drop rate, you name it. What I liked about THIS chart is you can see the bulk of WRs in the upper right are big names, breakout WRs. And there is Puka, too. So guys that are lower left, they give pause. It's just one red flag (or elite trait) I use, but if I get 2, 3, 4, red flags I tend to avoid. Nothing is foolproof of course.

That's where I'm at too, I'm not putting them on DND but it's very useful when looking at everyone after MHJ, Nabers and Odunze. A lot of people aren't just saying BT Jr. vs. Coleman or Mitchell. Some people are trying to decide if they're going WR vs. say Bowers in non-premium when they already have a great TE, or even WR from that tier vs. a Jayden Daniels or McCarthy or even the first RB off the board.

[wickerkat1212]

I said it earlier, but be careful about using any stat as a single point of doubt or optimism. The information is good, but it's really about how you use it in conjunction with other data.

Sure. Of course. I'm taking into account other things. Draft capital as well as BOA, drop rate, you name it. What I liked about THIS chart is you can see the bulk of WRs in the upper right are big names, breakout WRs. And there is Puka, too. So guys that are lower left, they give pause. It's just one red flag (or elite trait) I use, but if I get 2, 3, 4, red flags I tend to avoid. Nothing is foolproof of course.

That's where I'm at too, I'm not putting them on DND but it's very useful when looking at everyone after MHJ, Nabers and Odunze. A lot of people aren't just saying BT Jr. vs. Coleman or Mitchell. Some people are trying to decide if they're going WR vs. say Bowers in non-premium when they already have a great TE, or even WR from that tier vs. a Jayden Daniels or McCarthy or even the first RB off the board.

Yep. I have the 1.09 in a 1 QB and I'm really uncertain who I am targeting there. A lot will still unfold. I have two Superflex with lots of picks and so I've been studying the top six picks a lot. But in the 2.01 range in Superflex and late first in 1 QB it's still very much up in the air for me, as it should be. With 8-11 WRS all grouped together for me (right now) I need to find a way to separate them.

[DJB]

The guy that’s not getting enough love is A Mitchell. Just a smooth route runner and able to get up to gear quick.

Very underrated and my WR6 atm

[wickerkat1212]

The guy that’s not getting enough love is A Mitchell. Just a smooth route runner and able to get up to gear quick.

Very underrated and my WR6 atm

I like him a LOT, but had that little red flag with YPRR

[paytonsdaman]

Rebuilding. I know it’s traditional to trade for players, but with all the potential WR, I’m thinking of keeping 1.07,1.08,1.10,1.11 and hope a few picks hit. 1QB. Wouldn’t mind consolidating two picks to 1.02ish but don’t think I have enough ammo to get it done. Have decent players to compete this year but finished last in a loaded division. Tanked 2 weeks too late last season or else would have had 1.02-03