Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[esloan35]

Caleb knows it too.. Its a rookie QB yawner. Fields actually is a good fit there with his run factor. Hopefully they trade back.

[wickerkat1212]

I haven't seen anyone talking about Cowing yet. You may want to put him on your radar. Some Data Heads on Twitter got me looking at some analytics that really helped me to take a longer look at some guys.

Only three players hit these thresholds:

1. Early breakout age of 20 or younger with College Dominator of +30%
2. Career +2.5 YPRR or greater
3. Best College Season +3.2 YPRR

Those guys? Harrison, Nabers, and...Cowing.

[cazzie33]

For the record the Bills are not getting a dome so expect much of the same. The fans are a little bit more covered but the field is still entirely exposed to the elements.

The Bills fans will still be exposed to brutal chilling elements… the main one being they will NEVER EVER come up big @ the most crucial moments.

As a long suffering Lions fan I empathize. Fun side fact I used to go set up a C-band satellite dish @ Ralph Wilson’s home in Grosse Pointe, Mich on a portable trailer so he could pirate the Bills games on the road . Neighborhood ordinance didn’t allow dishes installed.

Hopefully 2024 season will be a DETROIT LIONS vs BUFFALO BILLS SUPER BOWL … at least one of us HAVE TO win

[Cameron Giles]

I haven't seen anyone talking about Cowing yet. You may want to put him on your radar. Some Data Heads on Twitter got me looking at some analytics that really helped me to take a longer look at some guys.

Only three players hit these thresholds:

1. Early breakout age of 20 or younger with College Dominator of +30%
2. Career +2.5 YPRR or greater
3. Best College Season +3.2 YPRR

Those guys? Harrison, Nabers, and...Cowing.

Cowing was a sleeper of mine in the 23 thread before he returned to school.

The thresholds you're using are arbitrary, but he's the closest you'll get to a possible Tank Dell type of prospect in this class. Not great measurables, older prospect, but route running and separation skills are as obvious as it gets. Usage this season doesn't line up with what he's proven he can do.

[wickerkat1212]

I haven't seen anyone talking about Cowing yet. You may want to put him on your radar. Some Data Heads on Twitter got me looking at some analytics that really helped me to take a longer look at some guys.

Only three players hit these thresholds:

1. Early breakout age of 20 or younger with College Dominator of +30%
2. Career +2.5 YPRR or greater
3. Best College Season +3.2 YPRR

Those guys? Harrison, Nabers, and...Cowing.

Cowing was a sleeper of mine in the 23 thread before he returned to school.

The thresholds you're using are arbitrary, but he's the closest you'll get to a possible Tank Dell type of prospect in this class. Not great measurables, older prospect, but route running and separation skills are as obvious as it gets. Usage this season doesn't line up with what he's proven he can do.

Cool. I'm just trying out more analytical data, I know a lot of people look at breakout age, as well as dominator score. Add to the the YPRR (new one to me) and draft capital, and I guess I'm trying to create a formula that may help me find the Dells, the Pukas. It stood out to me that only Harrison, Nabers, and Cowing had that stat. Got my attention. I know there is no secret formula, but some of this stuff may help me to make a decision when I see 8-11 WRs all about the same (for now). These guys had Cowing as the WR7 or 8 and that really popped when looking at rankings. He may be a guy I can get late 2nd in Superflex.

I want to have some deep rankings for my players this year as I have a bunch of 2nd and 3rd round picks. Especially in Superflex (one being TEP as well) these guys may get pushed down 5-10 spots.

[wickerkat1212]

Anybody have a strong sense on the RBs yet? I may be in a position in a few leagues to take the first RB off the board and I have NO idea who to take. I know, still early, combine, draft capital.

Ranking and comments are from DLF. DLF has them right now as:

1. Brooks—ACL is scaring off people, but he has talent. (Ranked 1-4)
2. Allen—some have him as RB1. WI has good RBs. Could be bell cow. (Ranked 1-4)
3. Benson—athletic upside (Ranked 1-4)
4. Corum—solid, runs angry, could be complimentary. (Ranked 2-6)
5. Irving—powerful, needs right system (Ranked 3-7)
6. Shipley—Clemson has good backs, flashed (Ranked 4-10)

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I haven't seen anyone talking about Cowing yet. You may want to put him on your radar. Some Data Heads on Twitter got me looking at some analytics that really helped me to take a longer look at some guys.

Only three players hit these thresholds:

1. Early breakout age of 20 or younger with College Dominator of +30%
2. Career +2.5 YPRR or greater
3. Best College Season +3.2 YPRR

Those guys? Harrison, Nabers, and...Cowing.

[Cameron Giles]

Anybody have a strong sense on the RBs yet? I may be in a position in a few leagues to take the first RB off the board and I have NO idea who to take. I know, still early, combine, draft capital.

Ranking and comments are from DLF. DLF has them right now as:

1. Brooks—ACL is scaring off people, but he has talent. (Ranked 1-4)
2. Allen—some have him as RB1. WI has good RBs. Could be bell cow. (Ranked 1-4)
3. Benson—athletic upside (Ranked 1-4)
4. Corum—solid, runs angry, could be complimentary. (Ranked 2-6)
5. Irving—powerful, needs right system (Ranked 3-7)
6. Shipley—Clemson has good backs, flashed (Ranked 4-10)

I think Jaylen Wright will get some attention post-combine. Him and Irving seem to be on the high-end of the complimentary backs in this class. Marshawn Lloyd is also someone to keep an eye on.

[Johnny Canuck]

Curious on the opinions of those that regularly contribute to this thread, regarding a question of mine.

In a SF, who is your 1.01? Who is your 1.02 and why aren’t they your 1.01? Could you flip the two based on any specific situations?

[Johnny Canuck]

To answer my own question.

I have Caleb Williams 1.01 and Harrison jr 1.02 - which is simply due to longevity of the QB position. TBH though, Harrison should be the 1.01, because imo he’s a safer option to reach his potential. But I just can’t do it with the SF aspect.

I suppose if I was stacked at QB and weak at WR I could prob flip them, and take Harrison 1.01 - but that might be illogical as Caleb Williams may fetch more than Harrison jr value in a trade.

Anyways, this is just a thought exercise. I find it’s better to write your thoughts out to nail down an accurate picture. And we have some smart posters here, so I’m curious what everyone thinks at 1.01 & 1.02. Is it Williams and Harrison, or what other names do we have at the top?

[tstafford]

Curious on the opinions of those that regularly contribute to this thread, regarding a question of mine.

In a SF, who is your 1.01? Who is your 1.02 and why aren’t they your 1.01? Could you flip the two based on any specific situations?

Still mulling it over and wanting to withhold final judgment pending combine, pro days, NFL draft.

My take is that the DFL Forum crowd is more open to the idea of passing on CW at 1.01 in SF than the broader dynasty community. When I see analysis outside of here it is more or less assumed that CW is the 1.01 w/o any debate. Here it's seems to be at at least 50/50 CW vs. MHJR (maybe more).

My take:
- The safer bet is CW. Trevor Lawrence has been somewhat disappointing while JaMarr Chase has been mostly terrific. Yet they are still very close in value in SF. Of course CW could totally bust, but there are fewer paths to MHJR being worth more than CW. It's about positional value in SF
- Setting aside positional value in SF, I think these guys are very close in terms of their quality as prospects. Taking MHJR isn't a huge reach, it just runs counter to conventional wisdom on building out SF teams
- We probably have a bit of FOMO going on around MHJR. There's something that feels more "fun" about rostering him vs. CW. It's your team and if you want MHJR, there's nothing wrong with that.

The wise choice is probably CW, but this is supposed to be a game (fun). I've got no issue with someone taking MHJR at 1.01 if that's what they want to do. Candidly I hold the 1.01/1.05 in my SF league and may well take MHJR instead of CW because I think I'd rather have MHJR/Maye than CW/Odunze (time will tell).

[mild]

Curious on the opinions of those that regularly contribute to this thread, regarding a question of mine.

In a SF, who is your 1.01? Who is your 1.02 and why aren’t they your 1.01? Could you flip the two based on any specific situations?

Still mulling it over and wanting to withhold final judgment pending combine, pro days, NFL draft.

My take is that the DFL Forum crowd is more open to the idea of passing on CW at 1.01 in SF than the broader dynasty community. When I see analysis outside of here it is more or less assumed that CW is the 1.01 w/o any debate. Here it's seems to be at at least 50/50 CW vs. MHJR (maybe more).

I think that's very well observed.

And I think it's also worth noting that for the most part, most of Caleb's detractors around here aren't actually basing their opinions on his level of play or what he is as a football prospect.

Nearly all of them are going after him on character concerns, and think he doesn't have the mental makeup for the Pros. Perhaps they don't like his attitude, or the fact that he's already got NIL money, or that he's trying to influence his landing spot, or that he paints his nails black, or that he cries in public on his Mom's shoulder.

In other definitely-not-related news, I think if DLF released polling data on it's average poster's age vs. other dynasty sites... I definitely don't think we'd be the youngest...

[tstafford]

Curious on the opinions of those that regularly contribute to this thread, regarding a question of mine.

In a SF, who is your 1.01? Who is your 1.02 and why aren’t they your 1.01? Could you flip the two based on any specific situations?

Still mulling it over and wanting to withhold final judgment pending combine, pro days, NFL draft.

My take is that the DFL Forum crowd is more open to the idea of passing on CW at 1.01 in SF than the broader dynasty community. When I see analysis outside of here it is more or less assumed that CW is the 1.01 w/o any debate. Here it's seems to be at at least 50/50 CW vs. MHJR (maybe more).

I think that's very well observed.

And I think it's also worth noting that for the most part, most of Caleb's detractors around here aren't actually basing their opinions on his level of play or what he is as a football prospect.

Nearly all of them are going after him on character concerns, and think he doesn't have the mental makeup for the Pros. Perhaps they don't like his attitude, or the fact that he's already got NIL money, or that he's trying to influence his landing spot, or that he paints his nails black, or that he cries in public on his Mom's shoulder.

In other definitely-not-related news, I think if DLF released polling data on it's average poster's age vs. other dynasty sites... I definitely don't think we'd be the youngest...

Are you suggesting that the predominant POV on CW is that he "ought to get off my lawn"?

[mild]

Are you suggesting that the predominant POV on CW is that he "ought to get off my lawn"?

Not at all my good man. As you said! The predominant opinion is that we should take him 1.01 in SF leagues.

But I am suggesting that of the reasons I've heard around here about why not to draft him... most of them sound... a little bit musty.

[tstafford]

Are you suggesting that the predominant POV on CW is that he "ought to get off my lawn"?

Not at all my good man. As you said! The predominant opinion is that we should take him 1.01 in SF leagues.

But I am suggesting that of the reasons I've heard around here about why not to draft him... most of them sound... a little bit musty.