Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[yinzername]

^true dat

[Payton34]

Good point. I'll keep that in mind. I didn't realize first round NFL draft stock was so important. Damn.
Is there any point in a Superflex where you're okay taking a flier on a QB? 4th round on Rattler maybe or just avoid?

It's crucial. I'll keep going another 5 more years:

2018: Mason Rudolph, Kyle Lauletta, Mike White, Luke Falk, Tanner Lee, Danny Etling, Alex McGough, Logan Woodside
2017: Deshone Kizer, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard, Josh Dobbs, Nathan Peterman, Brad Kaaya, Chad Kelly
2016: Christian Hackenburg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler, Connor Cook, Dak Prescott, Cardale Jones, Kevin hagan, Nate Sudfeld, Jake Rudock, Brandon Allen, Jeff Driskel, Brandon Doughty
2015: Garrett Grayson, Sean Mannion, Bryce Petty, Brett Hundley, Trevor Siemian
2014: Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Logan Thomas, Tom Savage, Aaron Murray, AJ McCarron, Zach Mettenberger, David Fales, Keith Wenning, Tajh Boyd, Garrett Gilbert

84 QBs have been selected outside the 1st round since 2014. There are 5 clear hits:

- Brock Purdy
- Jalen Hurts
- Dak Prescott
- Derek Carr
- Jimmy Garoppolo

Where to take someone like Rattler? It just depends on pedigree and situation. If he gets Round 2, and he went to a good organization or staff with a plausible chance of starting soon, I'd go somewhere in R2 in rookie drafts. Anything outside of that? I don't think they're worth more than a random 3rd or worse.

But, it's SF. And people are of course going to take as many dart throws as they can, because that's the game.

To be fair, are we claiming that QBs are only ever taken with the understanding that the team wants them to be the starter? It’s a serious question, not trying to be a wise bleep. QB is a unique position in which there is only a single starter, so is it truly a “failure” if your 5th round QB selection doesn’t become a successful starter? Is that always the intent when selecting a QB anywhere in the draft?

[Menace2010]

That's relevant for real NFL teams that need quality backups, but useless for those of us playing fantasy football...

[BabyChark23]

That's relevant for real NFL teams that need quality backups, but useless for those of us playing fantasy football...

It’s not useless for fantasy because it contributes to our understanding of how important context is in interpreting the data points previous posters provided.

[wickerkat1212]

Yep, 1st round QB is a coin flip, which is about as good as you can hope for.

QB is one of the most difficult positions to play in sports. So, it shouldn't take much for teams to recognize someone who can play it effectively. Those players almost always go in the 1st round.

I'm in no rush to draft more Clayton Tunes, Hendon Hookers and Jaren Halls with my rookie picks.

And when u bear the 1st rounders out to 2014 as u did with the non 1sts, it gets decidedly worse. More like 40/60. Makes a case for taking MHJ over Caleb even on a QB needy SF

Except the hit rate for 1st round WRs is only ~26%. There is no risk free pick, unfortunately.

Sure but with Harrison's pedigree everything I'm reading says he is as safe a pick as you'll ever get.

[CGW]

And when u bear the 1st rounders out to 2014 as u did with the non 1sts, it gets decidedly worse. More like 40/60. Makes a case for taking MHJ over Caleb even on a QB needy SF

Except the hit rate for 1st round WRs is only ~26%. There is no risk free pick, unfortunately.

Sure but with Harrison's pedigree everything I'm reading says he is as safe a pick as you'll ever get.

Agreed. As is Williams.

[Bronco Billy]

Except the hit rate for 1st round WRs is only ~26%. There is no risk free pick, unfortunately.

Sure but with Harrison's pedigree everything I'm reading says he is as safe a pick as you'll ever get.

Agreed. As is Williams.

Disagree

[tstafford]

Great stuff here on the QBs and the rounds taken in the draft.

I suspect some of this is tied to draft capital and how long a leash they get. Bryce Young is either going to start playing well or he will end up getting 2-3 head coaches fired (he's already downed one). Either way he's going to be playing football for a long time.

[murphysxm]

Sure but with Harrison's pedigree everything I'm reading says he is as safe a pick as you'll ever get.

Agreed. As is Williams.

Disagree

And the victory lap is yours if you bear correct. However, most experts, scouts, etc folks have Caleb's pedigree extremely high. The comparison with MHJR is valid.

[Bronco Billy]

Agreed. As is Williams.

Disagree

And the victory lap is yours if you bear correct. However, most experts, scouts, etc folks have Caleb's pedigree extremely high. The comparison with MHJR is valid.

Oh, I’ll own it if I’m wrong. I’m not a big fan of taking victory laps though.

My position on Williams is not that I know he’s going to fail but rather there’s a lot more risk there than what is being assigned by many. There are red flags that some are just ignoring IMO.

[YouMightDieTryin]

Disagree

And the victory lap is yours if you bear correct. However, most experts, scouts, etc folks have Caleb's pedigree extremely high. The comparison with MHJR is valid.

Oh, I’ll own it if I’m wrong. I’m not a big fan of taking victory laps though.

My position on Williams is not that I know he’s going to fail but rather there’s a lot more risk there than what is being assigned by many. There are red flags that some are just ignoring IMO.

I'm riding sidecar with BB right now. I also think there's factors that CW can't control that will aid in his downfall (i.e- Chicago's ineptitude). He's fighting a losing uphill battle before he even steps onto the field.

[CGW]

And the victory lap is yours if you bear correct. However, most experts, scouts, etc folks have Caleb's pedigree extremely high. The comparison with MHJR is valid.

Oh, I’ll own it if I’m wrong. I’m not a big fan of taking victory laps though.

My position on Williams is not that I know he’s going to fail but rather there’s a lot more risk there than what is being assigned by many. There are red flags that some are just ignoring IMO.

I'm riding sidecar with BB right now. I also think there's factors that CW can't control that will aid in his downfall (i.e- Chicago's ineptitude). He's fighting a losing uphill battle before he even steps onto the field.

I think it's absolutely fine to be on that side of the road (I've skipped on plenty of high profile prospects for all kinds of reasons), but its a minority position. He is a high profile rookie prospect, and will be the 1st overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft by whatever team is picking at that spot on April 25th.

[wickerkat1212]

I do think that Williams and Harrison are two of the best prospects in this class. But I haven't heard any red flags or worries about Harrison and I've seen a few with Williams. They both get very high marks.

[murphysxm]

Oh, I’ll own it if I’m wrong. I’m not a big fan of taking victory laps though.

I know, was tongue and cheek on my part

[Bronco Billy]

Oh, I’ll own it if I’m wrong. I’m not a big fan of taking victory laps though.

I know, was tongue and cheek on my part