Your Safest Bet Remains a 1st Round TE

[Menace2010]

I disagree that a single top 12 season is success. DD's WR model gives me a "stud" e.g. 3+ 1,000 yard seasons. That's worth writing home about. What does your model say about consistent success, what TEs give me 3-4 top 12 seasons?

[wickerkat1212]

QB getting 400 points and TE 150 we also have to look at the different between QB1 and QB12 vs say TE1 and TE12. Are there ten QBs with 400 points? 350-400? Where is the TE cliff? Was there a TE with 200+, one with 175 and the rest 150 and below? It's not just total points it the difference between YOUR stud and the other guys in the league.

1. LaPorta, Sam DET TE (R) 225.40
2. Kelce, Travis KCC TE 221.40
3. Hockenson, T.J. MIN TE 221.00
4. Engram, Evan JAC TE 210.40
5. Njoku, David CLE TE 205.20
6. Kittle, George SFO TE 203.20
7. Kmet, Cole CHI TE 174.00
8. McBride, Trey ARI TE 169.10
9. Ferguson, Jake DAL TE 164.20
10. Schultz, Dalton HOU TE 143.30
11. Kincaid, Dalton BUF TE (R) 136.90
12. Andrews, Mark BAL TE 135.40

Average of 14 to 13. And then they do drop off a cliff. Only 13 TEs average 10 or more points.

1. Allen, Josh BUF QB 431.05
2. Hurts, Jalen PHI QB 418.25
3. Jackson, Lamar BAL QB 387.00
4. Prescott, Dak DAL QB 372.15
5. Love, Jordan GBP QB 354.15
6. Purdy, Brock SFO QB 353.50
7. Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB 342.60
8. Goff, Jared DET QB 331.55
9. Tagovailoa, Tua MIA QB 329.75
10. Mayfield, Baker TBB QB 323.45
11. Howell, Sam WAS QB 311.10
12. Lawrence, Trevor JAC QB 309.70
13. Stroud, C.J. HOU QB (R) 307.00
14. Wilson, Russell DEN QB 305.60

Average of 26 to 20 for QBs. 22 QBS averaged 19 points or more per week.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I disagree that a single top 12 season is success. DD's WR model gives me a "stud" e.g. 3+ 1,000 yard seasons. That's worth writing home about. What does your model say about consistent success, what TEs give me 3-4 top 12 seasons?

Yeah I asked the same thing.

Very cool and very legal.

I might have missed it but did you happen to get more long-term numbers. Like, whats the percentages for 1st round TE's hitting 3 TE1 seasons, or so on and so forth.

I can probably find certain criteria yes

15 of the 23 for example hit 2 TE1 seasons
65.22%

10 of 23 hit 3 TE 1 seasons
43.5

Note: 7 TE remain active so it seems plausible that this % will increase

[Bronco Billy]

QB getting 400 points and TE 150 we also have to look at the different between QB1 and QB12 vs say TE1 and TE12. Are there ten QBs with 400 points? 350-400? Where is the TE cliff? Was there a TE with 200+, one with 175 and the rest 150 and below? It's not just total points it the difference between YOUR stud and the other guys in the league.

1. LaPorta, Sam DET TE (R) 225.40
2. Kelce, Travis KCC TE 221.40
3. Hockenson, T.J. MIN TE 221.00
4. Engram, Evan JAC TE 210.40
5. Njoku, David CLE TE 205.20
6. Kittle, George SFO TE 203.20
7. Kmet, Cole CHI TE 174.00
8. McBride, Trey ARI TE 169.10
9. Ferguson, Jake DAL TE 164.20
10. Schultz, Dalton HOU TE 143.30
11. Kincaid, Dalton BUF TE (R) 136.90
12. Andrews, Mark BAL TE 135.40

Average of 14 to 13. And then they do drop off a cliff. Only 13 TEs average 10 or more points.

1. Allen, Josh BUF QB 431.05
2. Hurts, Jalen PHI QB 418.25
3. Jackson, Lamar BAL QB 387.00
4. Prescott, Dak DAL QB 372.15
5. Love, Jordan GBP QB 354.15
6. Purdy, Brock SFO QB 353.50
7. Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB 342.60
8. Goff, Jared DET QB 331.55
9. Tagovailoa, Tua MIA QB 329.75
10. Mayfield, Baker TBB QB 323.45
11. Howell, Sam WAS QB 311.10
12. Lawrence, Trevor JAC QB 309.70
13. Stroud, C.J. HOU QB (R) 307.00
14. Wilson, Russell DEN QB 305.60

Average of 26 to 20 for QBs. 22 QBS averaged 19 points or more per week.

See, now wc is getting at the concept of value. Value is not derived by how many points your player scores. It’s how many more points he scores vs other starters required at his position (or whatever baseline is used to determine scoring differential within a position required by the league to start). It’s not about how many points you score. It’s about optimizing how many more points you can score than your opponent.

[mild]

wickerkat1212, aside from Superflex leagues, you're probably comparing the least useful value proposition there.

QB and TE are "start one" positions in standard fantasy (unless otherwise specified)

Where there's a real debate is in the value of having a singular top end TE and a low end WR3-4 - or, trading that top end TE away for a WR or RB that can actually be started in your 2nd/3rd/Flex spot, and staying "cheaper" at the TE position with ageing contender buys (like Kittle, Engram, Kelce, Njoku, Andrews etc - all have had cheap buyable windows either recently or right now)

As it was laid out earlier, the value of a top end TE like LaPorta can currently fetch a low end WR1 / high end WR2 that outscored him (in real fantasy terms) by 40-ish points this year (format depending)

Again, just my personal preference - but I think chasing the top tier TE should only be reserved for owners that have run out of other ways to improve their roster and are already starting multiple RB1's and WR1 / WR2's across all their slots.

Final note - using Full Point PPR to compare TE scoring to QB scoring is slicing it about as far in the TE's favour as you can possibly go. I would suggest both declaring the scoring format, and also sticking to 0.5 PPR (as a sort of middle ground) when you post stats like that.

[wickerkat1212]

wickerkat1212, aside from Superflex leagues, you're probably comparing the least useful value proposition there.

QB and TE are "start one" positions in standard fantasy (unless otherwise specified)

Where there's a real debate is in the value of having a singular top end TE and a low end WR3-4 - or, trading that top end TE away for a WR or RB that can actually be started in your 2nd/3rd/Flex spot, and staying "cheaper" at the TE position with ageing contender buys (like Kittle, Engram, Kelce, Njoku, Andrews etc - all have had cheap buyable windows either recently or right now)

As it was laid out earlier, the value of a top end TE like LaPorta can currently fetch a low end WR1 / high end WR2 that outscored him (in real fantasy terms) by 40-ish points this year (format depending)

Again, just my personal preference - but I think chasing the top tier TE should only be reserved for owners that have run out of other ways to improve their roster and are already starting multiple RB1's and WR1 / WR2's across all their slots.

Final note - using Full Point PPR to compare TE scoring to QB scoring is slicing it about as far in the TE's favour as you can possibly go. I would suggest both declaring the scoring format, and also sticking to 0.5 PPR (as a sort of middle ground) when you post stats like that.

Good points. Sorry, all of my leagues are 1 PPR.

[Orenthal Shames]

wickerkat1212, aside from Superflex leagues, you're probably comparing the least useful value proposition there.

QB and TE are "start one" positions in standard fantasy (unless otherwise specified)

Where there's a real debate is in the value of having a singular top end TE and a low end WR3-4 - or, trading that top end TE away for a WR or RB that can actually be started in your 2nd/3rd/Flex spot, and staying "cheaper" at the TE position with ageing contender buys (like Kittle, Engram, Kelce, Njoku, Andrews etc - all have had cheap buyable windows either recently or right now)

As it was laid out earlier, the value of a top end TE like LaPorta can currently fetch a low end WR1 / high end WR2 that outscored him (in real fantasy terms) by 40-ish points this year (format depending)

In terms of ppg, the difference between the #1 and #12 at their positions

QB: 6
RB: 9
WR: 7
TE: 4.5

[mild]

In terms of ppg, the difference between the #1 and #12 at their positions

QB: 6
RB: 9
WR: 7
TE: 4.5

Bingo.

We got spoiled by Kelce's insane seasons that actually scored like true WR1/2 seasons. When plotted on a graph of TE scoring, he was literally off the charts (way up in the top right hand corner, and skewing the graph scaling most likely)

It's far more likely that we're entering a return to reality on the TE scoring front. And at a one-sie position, it's not too hard to get a Top 12 guy.

[Jigga94]

Yup, Hayden Hurst being a hit is really all you need to know about the criteria here. It's not about fantasy so much as it is about TE being a wasteland.

"26 of 66 top 3 performances, since 2002 alone, are by 1st round TEs"
Tony G 8
Heap 3
Shockey 2
Winslow 1
Clark 2
Davis 2
Olsen 1
Hock 1
Engram 1

Was there someone else with 5 I missed when searching?

Gates did it 7 times. Undrafted TE for the win!

A single, all-time player at the position made up nearly a third of these first round top 3 finishes.

If one removes Tony Gonzalez, then one could also remove Witten or Kelce or Gronkowski. Taking any of those players out weakens TE hit rates at 2nd & 3rd round pedigrees more than removing Gonzalez does for the 1st round TE pedigree.

But these aren't hit rates. You can't say 26 of 66 top 3 finishes are from 1st round TE as if they aren't skewed towards 1 person. (I still dont know where you even got 26).

Hit rate would be how many of those 1st rounders ever had a top 3 season.

As to your longer reply to me, a TE getting 1 random Top 12 season isn't a hit. I'd argue you need at least 3 as being the 12th TE isn't much different than TE25

You're seriously out here calling Hayden Hurst and Brandon Pettigrew hits?

[trc]

A single, all-time player at the position made up nearly a third of these first round top 3 finishes.

If one removes Tony Gonzalez, then one could also remove Witten or Kelce or Gronkowski. Taking any of those players out weakens TE hit rates at 2nd & 3rd round pedigrees more than removing Gonzalez does for the 1st round TE pedigree.

But these aren't hit rates. You can't say 26 of 66 top 3 finishes are from 1st round TE as if they aren't skewed towards 1 person. (I still dont know where you even got 26).

Hit rate would be how many of those 1st rounders ever had a top 3 season.

As to your longer reply to me, a TE getting 1 random Top 12 season isn't a hit. I'd argue you need at least 3 as being the 12th TE isn't much different than TE25

You're seriously out here calling Hayden Hurst and Brandon Pettigrew hits?

I also pulled TE data when getting the data for analyzing WRs.

Since 2008 season, only 5 TE's have had 3 or more +1000 yards seasons
Kelce
Gronk,
Kittle
Greg Olsen
Witten

10 have had 3 or more +750 yards seasons (though Graham also had 2 +1000 seasons)
Ertz
Gates
Tony G
Vernon Davis
Delainie Walker
Miller
Graham
Kelce
Witten
Andrews

[Jigga94]

If one removes Tony Gonzalez, then one could also remove Witten or Kelce or Gronkowski. Taking any of those players out weakens TE hit rates at 2nd & 3rd round pedigrees more than removing Gonzalez does for the 1st round TE pedigree.

But these aren't hit rates. You can't say 26 of 66 top 3 finishes are from 1st round TE as if they aren't skewed towards 1 person. (I still dont know where you even got 26).

Hit rate would be how many of those 1st rounders ever had a top 3 season.

As to your longer reply to me, a TE getting 1 random Top 12 season isn't a hit. I'd argue you need at least 3 as being the 12th TE isn't much different than TE25

You're seriously out here calling Hayden Hurst and Brandon Pettigrew hits?

I also pulled TE data when getting the data for analyzing WRs.

Since 2008 season, only 5 TE's have had 3 or more +1000 yards seasons
Kelce - 3rd
Gronk - 2nd
Kittle - 5th
Greg Olsen - 1st
Witten - 3rd

9 have had 3 or more +750 yards seasons (though Graham also had 2 +1000 seasons)
Ertz - 2nd
Gates - UDFA
Tony G - 1st
Vernon Davis - 1st
Delanie Walker - 6th
Miller - 1st
Graham - 3rd
Kelce - 3rd
Witten - 3rd
Andrews - 3rd

3rd round TE are the best. Sidenote, why are Kelce and Witten listed on both but not Olsen/Gronk/Kittle?

[trc]

But these aren't hit rates. You can't say 26 of 66 top 3 finishes are from 1st round TE as if they aren't skewed towards 1 person. (I still dont know where you even got 26).

Hit rate would be how many of those 1st rounders ever had a top 3 season.

As to your longer reply to me, a TE getting 1 random Top 12 season isn't a hit. I'd argue you need at least 3 as being the 12th TE isn't much different than TE25

You're seriously out here calling Hayden Hurst and Brandon Pettigrew hits?

I also pulled TE data when getting the data for analyzing WRs.

Since 2008 season, only 5 TE's have had 3 or more +1000 yards seasons
Kelce - 3rd
Gronk - 2nd
Kittle - 5th
Greg Olsen - 1st
Witten - 3rd

9 have had 3 or more +750 yards seasons (though Graham also had 2 +1000 seasons)
Ertz - 2nd
Gates - UDFA
Tony G - 1st
Vernon Davis - 1st
Delanie Walker - 6th
Miller - 1st
Graham - 3rd
Kelce - 3rd
Witten - 3rd
Andrews - 3rd

3rd round TE are the best. Sidenote, why are Kelce and Witten listed on both but not Olsen/Gronk/Kittle?

they didn't have 3 or more games between 750-1000 yards, the others did.

[Jigga94]

I also pulled TE data when getting the data for analyzing WRs.

Since 2008 season, only 5 TE's have had 3 or more +1000 yards seasons
Kelce - 3rd
Gronk - 2nd
Kittle - 5th
Greg Olsen - 1st
Witten - 3rd

9 have had 3 or more +750 yards seasons (though Graham also had 2 +1000 seasons)
Ertz - 2nd
Gates - UDFA
Tony G - 1st
Vernon Davis - 1st
Delanie Walker - 6th
Miller - 1st
Graham - 3rd
Kelce - 3rd
Witten - 3rd
Andrews - 3rd

3rd round TE are the best. Sidenote, why are Kelce and Witten listed on both but not Olsen/Gronk/Kittle?

they didn't have 3 or more games between 750-1000 yards, the others did.

Ahh I see now. Thought hitting the 3 1k would exclude them from the bottom list. They are just so good they did both lol

[Bronco Billy]

wickerkat1212, aside from Superflex leagues, you're probably comparing the least useful value proposition there.

QB and TE are "start one" positions in standard fantasy (unless otherwise specified)

Where there's a real debate is in the value of having a singular top end TE and a low end WR3-4 - or, trading that top end TE away for a WR or RB that can actually be started in your 2nd/3rd/Flex spot, and staying "cheaper" at the TE position with ageing contender buys (like Kittle, Engram, Kelce, Njoku, Andrews etc - all have had cheap buyable windows either recently or right now)

As it was laid out earlier, the value of a top end TE like LaPorta can currently fetch a low end WR1 / high end WR2 that outscored him (in real fantasy terms) by 40-ish points this year (format depending)

Again, just my personal preference - but I think chasing the top tier TE should only be reserved for owners that have run out of other ways to improve their roster and are already starting multiple RB1's and WR1 / WR2's across all their slots.

Final note - using Full Point PPR to compare TE scoring to QB scoring is slicing it about as far in the TE's favour as you can possibly go. I would suggest both declaring the scoring format, and also sticking to 0.5 PPR (as a sort of middle ground) when you post stats like that.

Good points. Sorry, all of my leagues are 1 PPR.

No, there really aren’t many good points in that post and there are some serious fails. We’ve got a couple of guys now using “value” as some kind of gotcha on their side when they clearly don’t understand the concept of value.

[trc]

In terms of ppg, the difference between the #1 and #12 at their positions

QB: 6
RB: 9
WR: 7
TE: 4.5

Bingo.

We got spoiled by Kelce's insane seasons that actually scored like true WR1/2 seasons. When plotted on a graph of TE scoring, he was literally off the charts (way up in the top right hand corner, and skewing the graph scaling most likely)

It's far more likely that we're entering a return to reality on the TE scoring front. And at a one-sie position, it's not too hard to get a Top 12 guy.

I don't know. Taysom Hill ended as TE13 if sorted after PPG. 7 games he finished inside top 12. Putting up quite a few duds. Over half of his points came in 4 games. Same can be said about Ferguson, Goedert, McBride (TE10-12 in PPG) 4 or 5 games account for more than half their total points.

That leaves you for the vast majority of weeks with a disadvantage significantly higher than the 4.5 PPG listed above.