Your Safest Bet Remains a 1st Round TE

[mild]

Nice outlay here Mild. The numbers are what they are and if you can separate out the fascination of having to have the top player at the TE position (just to say you have it), from the metrics, then you should be able to capitalize on this elsewhere on your roster. i would say 8 or 10 owners would salivate to trade for a top TE...take advantage of that for sure! The only key is to ensure you have a stable stock of other TEs where you can play matchups and what not.

Thanks man. And to the bolded... I think there's serious value to going and picking up the ageing guys right now, with this new wave coming in and pushing the others out of the picture.

I've seen contenders pickup George Kittle for 2nd's, and I imagine Kelce will probably be pretty gettable this offseason. Perhaps Andrews too.

These are all guys that have a chance to give you a TE1 finish (on any given week, and also on the season) and cost a lot less.

[Pac_Eddy]

The only key is to ensure you have a stable stock of other TEs where you can play matchups and what not.

I understand the idea, but man do I hate doing this. I'd much rather pay up to get a reliable guy that you're starting every week. When playing the matchup game, you can get in a trend of adding & dropping TEs based on matchups, and/or be in the position of picking the wrong guy to start in each week. Same goes for the QB position in one QB leagues.

Conserve roster spaces and make lineup decisions simple.

[moishetreats]

The only key is to ensure you have a stable stock of other TEs where you can play matchups and what not.

I understand the idea, but man do I hate doing this. I'd much rather pay up to get a reliable guy that you're starting every week. When playing the matchup game, you can get in a trend of adding & dropping TEs based on matchups, and/or be in the position of picking the wrong guy to start in each week. Same goes for the QB position in one QB leagues.

Conserve roster spaces and make lineup decisions simple.

I'm with Pac_Eddy here: rather than using a lot of roster spots on TEs, I'd rather have one or two reliable ones and have extra spots for long-shots at other positions.

Obviously, roster sizes, scoring, etc. impact that. But that's my default approach.

[Bronco Billy]

Are you a first round TE salesman?

Jokes aside, nice write-up. I never would've guessed.

Why do you think there so much hate though? Is there such low scoring that a top 12 TE finish is only a handful of points more than the next twelve?

Probably because being a top 12 TE isn't hard. Pitts, who everyone ragged on all season, finished TE12 in PPR points for the year. He averaged 8.1 PPR per game. Meanwhile, 23 TE averaged over 7 PPG this year.

That’s a great argument for aiming at one of the TEs at the very top.

[Jigga94]

Are you a first round TE salesman?

Jokes aside, nice write-up. I never would've guessed.

Why do you think there so much hate though? Is there such low scoring that a top 12 TE finish is only a handful of points more than the next twelve?

Probably because being a top 12 TE isn't hard. Pitts, who everyone ragged on all season, finished TE12 in PPR points for the year. He averaged 8.1 PPR per game. Meanwhile, 23 TE averaged over 7 PPG this year.

That’s a great argument for aiming at one of the TEs at the very top.

I agree that you want a top tier TE. My TE MO is to get the cheapest that will produce at high levels. Not at all worried about these fringe TE1, but will stash youth for upside as you do with any position.

But this thread would have you believe that any old 1st round TE is all you need for years at the position. When in reality, there are only a handful of difference makers at the position. Going to do some deeper digging tomorrow on this TE stuff as I like the premise of this thread, but think it suffers from some selection bias and parameters. But for now I posted the below and think its the most telling

"26 of 66 top 3 performances, since 2002 alone, are by 1st round TEs"
Tony G 8
Heap 3
Shockey 2
Winslow 1
Clark 2
Davis 2
Olsen 1
Hock 1
Engram 1

Was there someone else with 5 I missed when searching? That is only 9 of the 30+ TE drafted in the 1st round in the sample and most of them are just Tony G being an all time great.

Gates did it 7 times and was undrafted.

[ArrylT]

I was told there wasn’t going to be any math.

[ArrylT]

Very cool and very legal.

I might have missed it but did you happen to get more long-term numbers. Like, whats the percentages for 1st round TE's hitting 3 TE1 seasons, or so on and so forth.

I can probably find certain criteria yes

15 of the 23 for example hit 2 TE1 seasons
65.22%

10 of 23 hit 3 TE 1 seasons
43.5

Note: 7 TE remain active so it seems plausible that this % will increase

[ArrylT]

Safety and value are different things. Elite TE scoring was down this year. When the top TEs are barely outpacing K & DSTs, it's hard to make a case for spending up for them.

Perhaps. I can tell you that Kyle Pitts 1st year as a TE was the 2nd highest fantasy total by a rookie 1st Round TE ever and 5th overall by any rookie TE

Kincaids was the 12th highest Rookie TE ever

1 Sam LaPorta 239.3
2 Mike Ditka 233.6
3 Keith Jackson 200.9
4 Charle Young 184.8
5 Kyle Pitts 176.6
6 Evan Engram 173.6
7 Jeremy Shockey 171.4
8 Cam Cleeland 158.4
9 Junior Miller 156.2
10 Rob Gronkowski 154.6
11 Pat Freiermuth 151.7
12 Dalton Kincaid 150.3

[ArrylT]

Safety and value are different things. Elite TE scoring was down this year. When the top TEs are barely outpacing K & DSTs, it's hard to make a case for spending up for them.

Yup, Hayden Hurst being a hit is really all you need to know about the criteria here. It's not about fantasy so much as it is about TE being a wasteland.

"26 of 66 top 3 performances, since 2002 alone, are by 1st round TEs"
Tony G 8
Heap 3
Shockey 2
Winslow 1
Clark 2
Davis 2
Olsen 1
Hock 1
Engram 1

Was there someone else with 5 I missed when searching?

Gates did it 7 times. Undrafted TE for the win!

A single, all-time player at the position made up nearly a third of these first round top 3 finishes.

If one removes Tony Gonzalez, then one could also remove Witten or Kelce or Gronkowski. Taking any of those players out weakens TE hit rates at 2nd & 3rd round pedigrees more than removing Gonzalez does for the 1st round TE pedigree.

[ArrylT]

Here are the top 15 UDFA TE by career yardage since 2002

1 Antonio Gates 11841
2 Cameron Brate 2857
3 Jack Doyle 2729
4 Marcus Pollard 2217
5 Jermaine Wiggins 1801
6 Robert Tonyan 1549
7 Trey Burton 1532
8 Darren Fells 1526
9 Daniel Fells 1334
10 Mo Alie-Cox 1286
11 Mark Campbell 1145
12 Jeff Cumberland 1121
13 Garrett Celek 1104
14 Josh Hill 1071
15 Chad Lewis 1022

If we go back all the way to 1962 then there are 5 UDFA TEs that had a career total over 3000

1 Antonio Gates 11841
2 Bob Tucker 5421
3 Paul Coffman 4340
4 Marcus Pollard 4280
5 Willie Frazier 3088

[Orenthal Shames]

Safety and value are different things. Elite TE scoring was down this year. When the top TEs are barely outpacing K & DSTs, it's hard to make a case for spending up for them.

Perhaps. I can tell you that Kyle Pitts 1st year as a TE was the 2nd highest fantasy total by a rookie 1st Round TE ever and 5th overall by any rookie TE

Kincaids was the 12th highest Rookie TE ever

This further shows the lack of value in the position. Pitts record year was equivalent to the WR36 in scoring, Kincaid's equivalent was outside the top 40WR. 150 points is borderline waiver fodder in shallow leagues.

The deeper you dig into the numbers, the more TE looks like KIcker in terms of value and scoring.

[Bronco Billy]

Safety and value are different things. Elite TE scoring was down this year. When the top TEs are barely outpacing K & DSTs, it's hard to make a case for spending up for them.

Perhaps. I can tell you that Kyle Pitts 1st year as a TE was the 2nd highest fantasy total by a rookie 1st Round TE ever and 5th overall by any rookie TE

Kincaids was the 12th highest Rookie TE ever

This further shows the lack of value in the position. Pitts record year was equivalent to the WR36 in scoring, Kincaid's was equivalent was outside the top 40WR. 150 points is borderline waiver fodder in shallow leagues.

The deeper you dig into the numbers, the more TE looks like KIcker in terms of value and scoring.

Comparing TEs to WRs does absolutely nothing to show their value unless you’re in a league that doesn’t start TEs. Not sure where you’re going with this other than to show you don’t understand the concept of value.

[Orenthal Shames]

Perhaps. I can tell you that Kyle Pitts 1st year as a TE was the 2nd highest fantasy total by a rookie 1st Round TE ever and 5th overall by any rookie TE

Kincaids was the 12th highest Rookie TE ever

This further shows the lack of value in the position. Pitts record year was equivalent to the WR36 in scoring, Kincaid's was equivalent was outside the top 40WR. 150 points is borderline waiver fodder in shallow leagues.

The deeper you dig into the numbers, the more TE looks like KIcker in terms of value and scoring.

Comparing TEs to WRs does absolutely nothing to show their value unless you’re in a league that doesn’t start TEs. Not sure where you’re going with this other than to show you don’t understand the concept of value.

VBD would like a word

[Bronco Billy]

This further shows the lack of value in the position. Pitts record year was equivalent to the WR36 in scoring, Kincaid's was equivalent was outside the top 40WR. 150 points is borderline waiver fodder in shallow leagues.

The deeper you dig into the numbers, the more TE looks like KIcker in terms of value and scoring.

Comparing TEs to WRs does absolutely nothing to show their value unless you’re in a league that doesn’t start TEs. Not sure where you’re going with this other than to show you don’t understand the concept of value.

VBD would like a word

Yeah. Why don’t you explain it?

[ArrylT]

Probably because being a top 12 TE isn't hard. Pitts, who everyone ragged on all season, finished TE12 in PPR points for the year. He averaged 8.1 PPR per game. Meanwhile, 23 TE averaged over 7 PPG this year.

That’s a great argument for aiming at one of the TEs at the very top.

I agree that you want a top tier TE. My TE MO is to get the cheapest that will produce at high levels. Not at all worried about these fringe TE1, but will stash youth for upside as you do with any position.

But this thread would have you believe that any old 1st round TE is all you need for years at the position. When in reality, there are only a handful of difference makers at the position. Going to do some deeper digging tomorrow on this TE stuff as I like the premise of this thread, but think it suffers from some selection bias and parameters. But for now I posted the below and think its the most telling

"26 of 66 top 3 performances, since 2002 alone, are by 1st round TEs"
Tony G 8
Heap 3
Shockey 2
Winslow 1
Clark 2
Davis 2
Olsen 1
Hock 1
Engram 1

Was there someone else with 5 I missed when searching? That is only 9 of the 30+ TE drafted in the 1st round in the sample and most of them are just Tony G being an all time great.

Gates did it 7 times and was undrafted.

Because that is exactly what the statistics are showing.

Eventually every 1st round TE drafted will have at least 1 fantasy relevant season - if we deem a top 12 season a hit. It would be a hit at any other position. Now a person can choose to deem only a certain # of TE valuable but in a 12 team league 12 TE need to be started.

And the safest bet for top 12 production based on percentages is a 1st round TE.

And it is not like there are a ton of them. You dont have to go chasing after 20-30 players and hope one of them hits.

There were 7 in 2023. 5 that guaranteed TE1 production. Usually you'll have 5-8 1st round TE playing and its not that hard to take a look at their current situation, recent production etc. So its not like Engram or Njoku came out of no where. They've previously had successful seasons. They had solid seasons last year & this year both hit top 6.

So now each have had 3 TE1 seasons. Thats pretty darn good for TEs who cost late 1sts (mizelle 2017 data gives Howard at 1.08, Njoku at 1.12 & Engram at 2.01).

Finally as I stated - I am simply talking about the safest bet. Cost of acquisition / need / etc thats all up to each owner.

Since 2017 (the year of Engram, Njoku & Howard at 1st round) there have been 32 2nd and 3rd Round TEs. 7 of them have hit 1 TE1 season.

7

Andrews
Goedert
Gesicki
Kmet
Freirmuth
McBride
LaPorta

32 Day 2 TEs drafted since 2019 Combined for 16 TE1 seasons in 7 years

In that same time frame we have also had 16 TE1 seasons by 1st Round TEs. Of which there are in any given year 5-8.

No one is saying go out any spend 3 1st round picks on a TE. I am simply noting the obvious given by the stats. You cant miss if you draft a 1st Round TE and wait.