This is obviously league dependent.Bronco Billy wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 5:51 am Full disclosure - I am a Bijan owner, and I also believe that both Bijan and MHJr are bonafide studs.
Given the information provided, I’d lean Robinson but it’s pretty close. Here’s why:
You start 2 RBs and 3 WRs. That puts positional value close because even though you start more WRs, significant WRs are also more plentiful than RBs. The 0.5 ppr helps RB value more than WR value. So RBs overall with all other things being equal are going to have more value in your league.
WRs generally are going to have more longevity than RBs, but Bijan is a very good receiver and also has a good running mate in Allgeier. That reduces the wear and tear on him. Kamara has had an 8 year career to date and entered the league a year older than Bijan, and he’s probably not done after this year yet. He may be a decent comp for career length assessment. It’s reasonable to expect similar longevity for Bijan, so it’s within reason to expect a decent 10 year career of productivity. That’s pretty solid - figure MHJr to last a couple of years longer but they’re pretty comparable.
We’ve seen that Bijan can play. His detractors can crow right now about how he’s not meeting expectations, but I see that as a false narrative. He’s already over 1200 yds from scrimmage and that’s with really poor QB play supporting him and some horrendous usage by his HC. If you start to get into the weeds on him, you’ll see things like lack of targets. He ought to be getting at least 6 targets a game with as good of a receiver as he is - and he is that good - yet he’s only had 6 or more targets in 6 games. That’s just stupid coaching. He also isn’t getting downfield on his targets. His average yds before contact receiving is -0.4 yds. That’s got to be in positive territory (Kamara’s career ave YBC is +0.4 yds) but again his usage is in serious question. Then you have many occasions where he’ll get a nice 5-7 yd gain on the first play of a drive and get pulled immediately. How does that figure in game flow?
You just can’t get around that his HC has no idea how to use a RB like Bijan. If we see Smith removed as HC and we see even mediocre QBing moving forward in ATL, it’s well within rational thought that Bijan’s productivity can improve by 10-15%, maybe more. There’s plenty of room for improvement in a system that chooses to optimize his talents.
That puts Bijan in the range of the premium RB talent that he was projected by many to be and doesn’t really get into his ceiling.
Looking at MHJr, I’m unabashedly a huge fan. I do believe he will be that good. I know we haven’t seen him in the bigs yet but he’s got all the earmarks. So I have no problem projecting him as a premium WR in the NFL.
If both projections are fairly accurate, then you’ve got a premium RB vs a premium WR going H2H here. That being the case, I’d default to value of each in your league and I do believe that Bijan will carry slightly better value. So I’d opt for Bijan between the two, but I don’t see the difference in value as being very much and think a strong case can be made for going with MHJr.
I voted for MHJ > Bijan because in my leagues we start 2 RB's but 6 WR's (3 WR/3 Flex) in Full PPR.
In Full PPR, WR's tend to outscore RB's, and they are cheaper, so roughly 60% of the leagues 36 Flex slots are filled with WR's.
20% are filled with TE's (TEP 0.5), and 20% filled with RB's.
I do realize that in Half PPR, RB value increases while WR value decreases, but not everyone is playing in Half PPR leagues.
