Your Safest Bet Remains a 1st Round TE

[ArrylT]

In part inspired by the discussion& debate in this thread

viewtopic.php?t=213700&start=720

in 2021 I did a deeper dive into TE pedigree and how reliable/safe/useful it was. The results then truly surprised me at how safe & reliable it was long-term to draft and own a 1st round TE, especially when compared to 1st round pedigree at other positions.

3 Years have passed and I now have 3 additional years of data to include.

And I can say without a doubt that the evidence has gone from rock solid to diamond calibre in statistically showing that 1st Round TEs are a very safe bet to own.

In the end, every league scoring system will differ, every owner is entitled to do as they deem fit with their team (within the bylaws of their league) and all I can do is provide the statistics & information that backs up this ascertion.

This information may prove more valuable in Best Ball, Guillotine or TE Premium type formats, but I built my database on typical ppr format and I can only say that in leagues where TEs have even more of a premium value than typical 12 team ppr, then you should strongly consider giving this information even heavier consideration.

Much if most of which can be found in that thread previously referenced, and imho I am pleased, is still continuing.

[ArrylT]

Going back as far as 1995 there are 32 Tight Ends who have been drafted in the 1st round of NFL Drafts.
Starting with 2002, so as to make the playing field level with the data I could accumulate for 2nd & 3rd Round TEs

There have been 23 TEs

22 of those 23 TEs have now had a minimum of 1 top 12 (aka TE1) season. The lone exception is OJ Howard.
31 of 32 (when counting non ppr formats since 1995)

That is a 95.6% hit rate

That hit rate goes to 100% if we consider PPG stats or having a top 5 finish (typically they dominated their peers that week) in a game.
OJ Howard has hit both top 12 ppg and had top 5 finishes.

So to repeat
95.6% of all 1st Round TEs have had a TE1 season
100% of all 1st Round TEs have had at least a top 5 week

Yes Dalton Kincaid & Kyle Pitts have already had TE1 seasons and Pitts has now (barely but it qualifies for me) had 2.

In comparison
there have been 38 TEs drafted in the 2nd round since 2002
there have been 53 TEs drafted in the 3rd round since 2002

18 of the 38 2nd Round TEs have had a TE1 Season
47.4%
12 of the 53 3rd Round TEs have had a TE1 Season
22.6%

What about overall volume?

79 Top 12 performances have been given by 1st Round TEs since 2002
29.92% of all top 12
(22 years x 12 = 264. 79/264 = 29.92%)

48 Top 12 performances have been given by 2nd Round TEs since 2002
18.20%

57 Top 12 performances have been given by 3rd Round TEs since 2002
21.6%

At the very least this shows that ALL non Day 1 & 2 TES combined - or basically Rounds 4,5,6,7, & every UDFA TE - had the remaining 27.25%.

Those percentages might not look very impressive, but remember that the # of 1st Round TEs in comparison.

There are (since 2002) 51+54+46+57 TEs drafted Day 3 and this doesnt include UDFA numbers

so a pool 10x as large as the # of 1st Round TEs still had less total # of top 12 seasons.

https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/ ... s-round/te

You're only interested in Elite?

Ok well how about top 3 finishes?

22 years times top 3 = 66

13 of 66 are 4th round or later (208+)
19.7%
19 of 66 are 3rd round TEs (58 TEs)
28.8%
8 of 66 are 2nd round TEs (38 TEs)
12.1%

Yes 26 of 66 top 3 performances, since 2002 alone, are by 1st round TEs
39.4%

Almost 40% of top 3 performances are by the smallest pool of TEs.

You're worried about startability?

From 2002 to 2023 (22 years) there have been 377 NFL weeks

17 x 19 = 323
+
18 x 3 = 54

Thats a total of 4524 potential top 12 (aka TE 1 finishes)
323 + 54 x 12 = 4524

17.2% (777 weekly top 12 finishes) were by 3rd round TEs
14.3% (645 weekly top 12) were by 2nd round TEs

1048 top 12 weekly finishes were by 1st round TEs
23.2%

[ArrylT]

In 2023, which may become known as the year of the 1st round TE (if it wasnt for Sam LaPorta haha) we had
EVERY ONE of the 7 1st Round TEs in the NFL (Hurst, Fant, Pitts, Hockenson, Engram, Njoku & Kincaid) finish with a weekly top 12 performance.
6 of 7 had a top 5 performance (sorry Fant).
5 of 7 finished top 12 overall (Pitts, Hockenson, Engram, Njoku & Kincaid)
3 of 7 finished top 6 (Hockenson, Engram & Njoku)

And Engram finished top 3
or Hockenson if you're someone who ignores week 18
Hockenson missed by 0.5 points to have both Engram & Hockenson finish top 3.

1st Round TEs are the lowest in terms of volume of draft pedigree

23 since 2002

RBs?
44 drafted

WRs?
86 drafted

QBs?
66 drafted

Yet every year since 2002, save 2019 (Olsen finished 13th) at least 1 1st round pedigree TE has finished in the top 12.

Consistent production
Reliable weekly performances
Top 3 upside
Long careers due to pedigree

95.6% hit rate
100% likelihood they'll be in your lineup (Best ball)

No one can perfectly predict injuries, team usage, owner/coach/scheme change or off-field concerns. But based solely off of 22 years of statistics it is safe to say that

Long term your safest bet for fantasy production will be a 1st round TE.

[Pac_Eddy]

Are you a first round TE salesman?

Jokes aside, nice write-up. I never would've guessed.

Why do you think there so much hate though? Is there such low scoring that a top 12 TE finish is only a handful of points more than the next twelve?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Very cool and very legal.

I might have missed it but did you happen to get more long-term numbers. Like, whats the percentages for 1st round TE's hitting 3 TE1 seasons, or so on and so forth.

[ArrylT]

Are you a first round TE salesman?

Jokes aside, nice write-up. I never would've guessed.

Why do you think there so much hate though? Is there such low scoring that a top 12 TE finish is only a handful of points more than the next twelve?

LOL no not particularly. I am actually in a league where I had 4 TE1s and an owner tried to buy one from me and I declined because while I felt the offer(s) were fair, they didnt really improve my team. And it turned out I made the right decision because that team made it to the Championship & won (typical 12 team ppr).

I cannot speak for why it seems 1st round TEs get less love than other 1st round pedigree players. Or why TE as a fantasy position is less well regarded. In part it could be human nature to dislike change. The NFL changes slowly, and then suddenly everyone copies whatever works once a team has shown innovation. Same thing in fantasy. I could speculate there is a long term bias against TE because like you said, sometimes on any given week the difference between TE 9 and TE 14 is a matter of 2-3 points.

However how is that much different from QB 10 and QB 14 or RB 22 & RB 26 or WR 30 & WR 40? On any given week the points variance at all positions can be large or minute.

Pick a week, any week from 1-17 and when I have a moment I can go back and look at the variance over the years of that specific week at each position.

But regardless, unless one is in a league that combines WR/TE, most leagues require a TE start. I personally am going to try and get into more 2 TE leagues (but this is more difficult for a few reasons).

Anyways that is why I gave a variety of statistics. Weekly top 12 finishes, season finishes, etc, the odds all favor 1st Round TEs in spite of how small the pool of players is available.

In the end it is up to each owner to decide, I'm not telling anyone where to draft, what cost to acquire, or when to buy/sell. Depending on your league format & trade market you make those determinations yourself, I can only point out that year after year if you want solid production out of a position (which allows you to then go looking for boom bust picks like Tyreek Hill, Diggs & Nacua) its found at 1st round TE pedigree.

[Bronco Billy]

I was told there wasn’t going to be any math.

[Orenthal Shames]

Safety and value are different things. Elite TE scoring was down this year. When the top TEs are barely outpacing K & DSTs, it's hard to make a case for spending up for them.

[Jigga94]

Are you a first round TE salesman?

Jokes aside, nice write-up. I never would've guessed.

Why do you think there so much hate though? Is there such low scoring that a top 12 TE finish is only a handful of points more than the next twelve?

Probably because being a top 12 TE isn't hard. Pitts, who everyone ragged on all season, finished TE12 in PPR points for the year. He averaged 8.1 PPR per game. Meanwhile, 23 TE averaged over 7 PPG this year.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Are you a first round TE salesman?

Jokes aside, nice write-up. I never would've guessed.

Why do you think there so much hate though? Is there such low scoring that a top 12 TE finish is only a handful of points more than the next twelve?

Probably because being a top 12 TE isn't hard. Pitts, who everyone ragged on all season, finished TE12 in PPR points for the year. He averaged 8.1 PPR per game. Meanwhile, 23 TE averaged over 7 PPG this year.

Yeah, 1st round doesn’t mean you’re getting a stud, but at least the floor is a lot higher than the other rounds

[Orenthal Shames]

Are you a first round TE salesman?

Jokes aside, nice write-up. I never would've guessed.

Why do you think there so much hate though? Is there such low scoring that a top 12 TE finish is only a handful of points more than the next twelve?

Probably because being a top 12 TE isn't hard. Pitts, who everyone ragged on all season, finished TE12 in PPR points for the year. He averaged 8.1 PPR per game. Meanwhile, 23 TE averaged over 7 PPG this year.

This. TE12 scored the equivalent of a fantasy RB4/WR5. It's a bad value bet.

[mild]

I cannot speak for why it seems 1st round TEs get less love than other 1st round pedigree players. Or why TE as a fantasy position is less well regarded. In part it could be human nature to dislike change. The NFL changes slowly, and then suddenly everyone copies whatever works once a team has shown innovation. Same thing in fantasy.

I can take a stab at this.

It's because the point of fantasy is to score points. And ultimately? TE's are the worst at doing that.

The top scoring QB this year brought 410.9 points to your fantasy lineup.
The top scoring RB this year brought 324.3 points to your fantasy lineup.
The top scoring WR this year brought 268.2 points to your fantasy lineup.
The top scoring TE this year brought 153.3 points to your fantasy lineup.

(I could take the time to do this with averaging the Top 10 scorers too, but I'm at work and this sort of work will be done for me with all the fantasy retrospectives in the coming months - the point is illustrative, and you get the idea)

In real terms: the value of having the TE1 this year (Sam LaPorta) was the equivalent of having the WR17 by total output. (Calvin Ridley)

Obviously, positional scarcity is great - you feel awesome when you have a Top TE - and I understand why that's something we should all be interested in acquiring.

It's where we get into paying equivalent prices for the chance to own one of these top TE's that the value breaks down - strictly if your goal is to win your matchups.

This is "value over replacement" conversation - and the truth is, there's only 40-ish pts total between LaPorta (TE1 finish) and Taysom Hill (TE7) - a guy you could have found off the waiver wire at points. And regardless of which one you went with there - what we are essentially talking about is the output of a low end WR2 to high end WR3. And that's a -best case- scenario.

And yet - the value of these top TE's is billed as much more - up into the mid-tier WR1 ranges - just due to positional scarcity.

Per value calculators, you could trade Sam LaPorta (TE1 on KTC) straight up for Nico Collins (WR18 on KTC) right now, right? And as the LaPorta owner, you could ask for more coming back. Hell, you could get DJ Moore and still be "giving up" the value per calculators. You could even go chase ARSB and add a little as the LaPorta owner.

Sure, there will be weeks where big Sam outright wins a matchup for you from the TE spot.

But just per the numbers - there will be MORE weeks where a player like DJ Moore or Nico Collins or ARSB outright wins you the week from your Flex or WR2 spot.

Chasing Top Tier TE's should really be reserved for only the most stacked contenders who literally can't improve their starting lineups anywhere else imo. Apart from that - I really do think the value favours trading any highly ranked TE into a better WR, RB, or QB - if your goal is building a lineup that scores big points.

[Jigga94]

Safety and value are different things. Elite TE scoring was down this year. When the top TEs are barely outpacing K & DSTs, it's hard to make a case for spending up for them.

Yup, Hayden Hurst being a hit is really all you need to know about the criteria here. It's not about fantasy so much as it is about TE being a wasteland.

"26 of 66 top 3 performances, since 2002 alone, are by 1st round TEs"
Tony G 8
Heap 3
Shockey 2
Winslow 1
Clark 2
Davis 2
Olsen 1
Hock 1
Engram 1

Was there someone else with 5 I missed when searching?

Gates did it 7 times. Undrafted TE for the win!

[Orenthal Shames]

Safety and value are different things. Elite TE scoring was down this year. When the top TEs are barely outpacing K & DSTs, it's hard to make a case for spending up for them.

Yup, Hayden Hurst being a hit is really all you need to know about the criteria here. It's not about fantasy so much as it is about TE being a wasteland.

"26 of 66 top 3 performances, since 2002 alone, are by 1st round TEs"
Tony G 8
Heap 3
Shockey 2
Winslow 1
Clark 2
Davis 2
Olsen 1
Hock 1
Engram 1

Was there someone else with 5 I missed when searching?

Gates did it 7 times. Undrafted TE for the win!

A single, all-time player at the position made up nearly a third of these first round top 3 finishes.

[TheTroll]

I cannot speak for why it seems 1st round TEs get less love than other 1st round pedigree players. Or why TE as a fantasy position is less well regarded. In part it could be human nature to dislike change. The NFL changes slowly, and then suddenly everyone copies whatever works once a team has shown innovation. Same thing in fantasy.

I can take a stab at this.

It's because the point of fantasy is to score points. And ultimately? TE's are the worst at doing that.

The top scoring QB this year brought 410.9 points to your fantasy lineup.
The top scoring RB this year brought 324.3 points to your fantasy lineup.
The top scoring WR this year brought 268.2 points to your fantasy lineup.
The top scoring TE this year brought 153.3 points to your fantasy lineup.

(I could take the time to do this with averaging the Top 10 scorers too, but I'm at work and this sort of work will be done for me with all the fantasy retrospectives in the coming months - the point is illustrative, and you get the idea)

In real terms: the value of having the TE1 this year (Sam LaPorta) was the equivalent of having the WR17 by total output. (Calvin Ridley)

Obviously, positional scarcity is great - you feel awesome when you have a Top TE - and I understand why that's something we should all be interested in acquiring.

It's where we get into paying equivalent prices for the chance to own one of these top TE's that the value breaks down - strictly if your goal is to win your matchups.

This is "value over replacement" conversation - and the truth is, there's only 40-ish pts total between LaPorta (TE1 finish) and Taysom Hill (TE7) - a guy you could have found off the waiver wire at points. And regardless of which one you went with there - what we are essentially talking about is the output of a low end WR2 to high end WR3. And that's a -best case- scenario.

And yet - the value of these top TE's is billed as much more - up into the mid-tier WR1 ranges - just due to positional scarcity.

Per value calculators, you could trade Sam LaPorta (TE1 on KTC) straight up for Nico Collins (WR18 on KTC) right now, right? And as the LaPorta owner, you could ask for more coming back. Hell, you could get DJ Moore and still be "giving up" the value per calculators. You could even go chase ARSB and add a little as the LaPorta owner.

Sure, there will be weeks where big Sam outright wins a matchup for you from the TE spot.

But just per the numbers - there will be MORE weeks where a player like DJ Moore or Nico Collins or ARSB outright wins you the week from your Flex or WR2 spot.

Chasing Top Tier TE's should really be reserved for only the most stacked contenders who literally can't improve their starting lineups anywhere else imo. Apart from that - I really do think the value favours trading any highly ranked TE into a better WR, RB, or QB - if your goal is building a lineup that scores big points.

Nice outlay here Mild. The numbers are what they are and if you can separate out the fascination of having to have the top player at the TE position (just to say you have it), from the metrics, then you should be able to capitalize on this elsewhere on your roster. i would say 8 or 10 owners would salivate to trade for a top TE...take advantage of that for sure! The only key is to ensure you have a stable stock of other TEs where you can play matchups and what not.