Aidan O'Connell: The Man, The Myth, The Legend

[Anteaters]

Week 18: 20 for 31 (64.5%), 244yds, 2TDs, 0 int, a win over a defense everyone agreed is now playing like a top-half NFL DEFense

What do we think now?

Okay the guy is (probably) not getting fitted for his Brady MVP jersey, but if AP is named the head coach I think there's a better than 50% chance AOC is the 2024 opening day starter. If that happens and he continues playing like he has these past two weeks ... ... I'm just sayin'

This guy could be a sneaky cheap acquisition right now for dynasty SF managers.

[murphysxm]

if AP is named the head coach I think there's a better than 50% chance AOC is the 2024 opening day starter.

I'd take this wager

[Anteaters]

if AP is named the head coach I think there's a better than 50% chance AOC is the 2024 opening day starter.

I'd take this wager

My big question is, who does LV replace him with? I get the idea that AOC is not a great proven QB yet, and that this roster could be a winning team with a very good proven QB. But who and at what cost?

Jimmy G is a big NO.

I don't think the team pays a ransom to move up for one of the Top2 rookie QBs. Even going for the third drafted rookie QB is going to be costly because I think the third rookie QB will go no later than 1.06.

The free agent market is not that great. Even if Mayfield is released, is he worth paying $30M+/yr for a team like the Raiders? Even if Cousins would agree to join the team, is he worth $40-45M/yr for three seasons for a team like the Raiders. If Geno becomes available, is he worth pursuing at $25-$30M/yr? Why the heck even consider Howell, Heinike, Brissett, Mac, Mills and others in that range, when you could start AOC at a much cheaper price? Fields????? Winston???? Trade for Russ??

[murphysxm]

My big question is, who does LV replace him with? I get the idea that AOC is not a great proven QB yet, and that this roster could be a winning team with a very good proven QB. But who and at what cost?

If they hire AP permanently and only give him AOC as an option at QB, the Raiders are more inept than I thought. AOC is not a starting caliber NFL QB. He can hold the clipboard and he can be a fun story. He can't elevate a team.

[Anteaters]

My big question is, who does LV replace him with? I get the idea that AOC is not a great proven QB yet, and that this roster could be a winning team with a very good proven QB. But who and at what cost?

If they hire AP permanently and only give him AOC as an option at QB, the Raiders are more inept than I thought. AOC is not a starting caliber NFL QB. He can hold the clipboard and he can be a fun story. He can't elevate a team.

Ok, but who should they get? And if you think a rookie is the answer, what do you think they'll have to give up to move up high enough to get that guy?

[murphysxm]

My big question is, who does LV replace him with? I get the idea that AOC is not a great proven QB yet, and that this roster could be a winning team with a very good proven QB. But who and at what cost?

If they hire AP permanently and only give him AOC as an option at QB, the Raiders are more inept than I thought. AOC is not a starting caliber NFL QB. He can hold the clipboard and he can be a fun story. He can't elevate a team.

Ok, but who should they get? And if you think a rookie is the answer, what do you think they'll have to give up to move up high enough to get that guy?

You keep making it sound like there is this huge bar to overcome to improve upon AOC. With out moving up they will have options like Penix or McCarthy. Both are drastic improvements and offer more hope.

[Anteaters]

If they hire AP permanently and only give him AOC as an option at QB, the Raiders are more inept than I thought. AOC is not a starting caliber NFL QB. He can hold the clipboard and he can be a fun story. He can't elevate a team.

Ok, but who should they get? And if you think a rookie is the answer, what do you think they'll have to give up to move up high enough to get that guy?

You keep making it sound like there is this huge bar to overcome to improve upon AOC. With out moving up they will have options like Penix or McCarthy. Both are drastic improvements and offer more hope.

Enjoying the discussion.

Now that the draft has been set, we know LV has 1.13.

In 2023, the third QB went 1.04. The fourth QB was Levis at 2.02. I don't see Levis as a surefire better outcome (as a QB or for the W-L record of team that drafted him) than AOC.
In 2022, there were no QBs worthy of being drafted in the first round and none that could realistically be expected to help an NFL or fantasy team.
in 2021, the third QB went 1.03. At 1.11 and 1.15 NFL teams reached for QBs, both teams now regret that reach, and both teams are again looking to draft a QB three years later.
In 2020, the third QB went 1.06. Love went 1.26 to a team that was willing to invest three seasons of bench education time in his development - we know the Raiders (and almost every other nfl team) aren't looking to sit any QB they draft in the 1st round. Hurts was a miracle find in the back of the 3rd round.
In 2019, Kyler went 1.01, then NYG reached at 1.06 and WAS reached at 1.15. Kyler has been a T12QB in fantasy his entire career. The reaches have been disappointments for their NFL teams.

I'm not saying the Raiders won't get lucky and find a pro-ready rookie at 1.13. I'm not saying the Raiders won't pay a reasonable price to move up to 1.07 to try to ensure they get whoever they think will help them. I just don't think it's a guarantee that the fourth or fifth drafted rookie QB is going to be better than AOC is right now. And I think Pierce certainly knows that.

I also don't think it makes sense to sign any free agent (or trade for one of the obviously available vets) unless that guy is Cousins. Cousins is the only currently NFL QB who is projected to be available that would be a clear and sizeable upgrade over AOC. Every other option is seriously flawed to the point I think the Raiders would be moving two steps backwards to add any of them.

EDIT: Here are the teams ahead of LV who will also probably be looking to draft QBs.
*1.12 Denver
*1.11 Minnesota
1.10 NYJ (not a certainty, but not an impossibility if the team is smart)
1.09 and 1.01 Chicago
*1.08 Atlanta
1.07 TENN (probably not, but not an impossibility)
1.06 NYG
*1.03 NE
*1.02 WAS
*1.01 CHI

The teams I put an * beside will almost certainly be looking to get a QB. They will only not take a QB if they determine there isn't one worth of choosing at that time. There are 6 such teams. Even if two decide the QB leftovers aren't worth their pick, that means LV will be looking at the fifth QB in the NFL draft. It seems very risky to me to spend a high quality 1st round pick on the fifth/sixth best college QB. The team could use that pick on the second best WR or OL.

[dynastyninja]

AOC as the starter would be a waste of a year for LVR. He's not a franchise QB. Either go with a true tank commander for an early pick or get a young guy.

[Anteaters]

AOC as the starter would be a waste of a year for LVR. He's not a franchise QB. Either go with a true tank commander for an early pick or get a young guy.

Ok. Which guy? Do you have one in mind?

[dynastyninja]

AOC as the starter would be a waste of a year for LVR. He's not a franchise QB. Either go with a true tank commander for an early pick or get a young guy.

Ok. Which guy? Do you have one in mind?

I haven't scouted this QB class yet, so not yet. Seems like there's a list of quality guys, though.

Doesn't really change my AOC evaluation either way. He'd lead to a waste of a season in 2024 for Vegas.

[Bronco Billy]

AOC as the starter would be a waste of a year for LVR. He's not a franchise QB. Either go with a true tank commander for an early pick or get a young guy.

Ok. Which guy? Do you have one in mind?

You keep asking this over and over.

What is your plan if they go with AOC and neglect QB for another year? The ‘25 class isn’t better than this class and decent FA QBs are going to be few and far between. Are you hoping AOC actually turns into a top 50% starter or are you hoping that he ****s the bed so badly that LV is in line for a top 2/3 pick in ‘25? Personally I think the former is less probable than the latter.

I’d rather roll the dice with McCarthy or Sanders in the coming draft than put all my eggs in the AOC basket. At least make it a competition.

[Anteaters]

AOC as the starter would be a waste of a year for LVR. He's not a franchise QB. Either go with a true tank commander for an early pick or get a young guy.

Ok. Which guy? Do you have one in mind?

I haven't scouted this QB class yet, so not yet. Seems like there's a list of quality guys, though.

Doesn't really change my AOC evaluation either way. He'd lead to a waste of a season in 2024 for Vegas.

There is a way to waste even more.
Let's say LV reaches for the fifth rookie QB at 1.13 and that guy turns out like almost every other fifth QB to be drafted and is no good. Now they haven't improved the QB position, they'll probably waste the 2024 and 2025 seasons before they admit the fifth drafted 2024 QB is no good, and they try to do it again in 2026 when Maxx, DAdams, and every other 28-31 year old currently player is busted.

Or, with that 1.13 the Raiders could add a great prospect at WR or OL or DE that will almost certainly help the team right away. Then, if AOC proves to not be good enough, they try to draft his replacement in 2025. Also, the free agent (and trade) QB class will be better for LVR after 2024.

I'm all for improving any team at the QB position. But it has to be possible. I don't think it's realistic for LVR to do it this offseason.

Drafting a rookie just to say you've reset the QB competition is foolish. First round picks should be used on players a GM seriously believes can help the team. You don't waste the 1.13 on making your current QB compete for the job. That's what free agents are for. QB competition is why you sign Sam Darnold or Brissett.

The last decade of the NFL draft says it's unwise to think the fifth or sixth QB drafted is going to be good.

[murphysxm]

Dude, QB's in this class that are better than AOC TODAY.
Caleb, Maye, Daniels, Nix, Penix, JJM, Ewers, Jordan Travis - Off the top of my head.

ALL ARE BETTER THAN A 25 YEAR OLD ROOKIE QB THAT WAS BOTTOM 3 IN THE LEAGUE AS A STARTER. Pick your guy, one will be a Raider.

[FantasyFreak]

AOC as the starter would be a waste of a year for LVR. He's not a franchise QB. Either go with a true tank commander for an early pick or get a young guy.

Ok. Which guy? Do you have one in mind?

You keep asking this over and over.

What is your plan if they go with AOC and neglect QB for another year? The ‘25 class isn’t better than this class and decent FA QBs are going to be few and far between. Are you hoping AOC actually turns into a top 50% starter or are you hoping that he ****s the bed so badly that LV is in line for a top 2/3 pick in ‘25? Personally I think the former is less probable than the latter.

I’d rather roll the dice with McCarthy or Sanders in the coming draft than put all my eggs in the AOC basket. At least make it a competition.

Could always trade up, to say 9, with the Bears, if a guy like Penix is still there. Justin Fields fell to 11, it happens. Guys don't always go where we think they will.

[Bronco Billy]

Ok. Which guy? Do you have one in mind?

You keep asking this over and over.

What is your plan if they go with AOC and neglect QB for another year? The ‘25 class isn’t better than this class and decent FA QBs are going to be few and far between. Are you hoping AOC actually turns into a top 50% starter or are you hoping that he ****s the bed so badly that LV is in line for a top 2/3 pick in ‘25? Personally I think the former is less probable than the latter.

I’d rather roll the dice with McCarthy or Sanders in the coming draft than put all my eggs in the AOC basket. At least make it a competition.

Could always trade up, to say 9, with the Bears, if a guy like Penix is still there. Justin Fields fell to 11, it happens. Guys don't always go where we think they will.

That apparently is not an option in this thread.