Postby Anteaters » Mon Jan 08, 2024 9:18 am
murphysxm wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:56 am
Anteaters wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:48 am
murphysxm wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:43 am
If they hire AP permanently and only give him AOC as an option at QB, the Raiders are more inept than I thought. AOC is not a starting caliber NFL QB. He can hold the clipboard and he can be a fun story. He can't elevate a team.
Ok, but who should they get? And if you think a rookie is the answer, what do you think they'll have to give up to move up high enough to get that guy?
You keep making it sound like there is this huge bar to overcome to improve upon AOC. With out moving up they will have options like Penix or McCarthy. Both are drastic improvements and offer more hope.
Enjoying the discussion.
Now that the draft has been set, we know LV has 1.13.
In 2023, the third QB went 1.04. The fourth QB was Levis at 2.02. I don't see Levis as a surefire better outcome (as a QB or for the W-L record of team that drafted him) than AOC.
In 2022, there were no QBs worthy of being drafted in the first round and none that could realistically be expected to help an NFL or fantasy team.
in 2021, the third QB went 1.03. At 1.11 and 1.15 NFL teams reached for QBs, both teams now regret that reach, and both teams are again looking to draft a QB three years later.
In 2020, the third QB went 1.06. Love went 1.26 to a team that was willing to invest three seasons of bench education time in his development - we know the Raiders (and almost every other nfl team) aren't looking to sit any QB they draft in the 1st round. Hurts was a miracle find in the back of the 3rd round.
In 2019, Kyler went 1.01, then NYG reached at 1.06 and WAS reached at 1.15. Kyler has been a T12QB in fantasy his entire career. The reaches have been disappointments for their NFL teams.
I'm not saying the Raiders won't get lucky and find a pro-ready rookie at 1.13. I'm not saying the Raiders won't pay a reasonable price to move up to 1.07 to try to ensure they get whoever they think will help them. I just don't think it's a guarantee that the fourth or fifth drafted rookie QB is going to be better than AOC is right now. And I think Pierce certainly knows that.
I also don't think it makes sense to sign any free agent (or trade for one of the obviously available vets) unless that guy is Cousins. Cousins is the only currently NFL QB who is projected to be available that would be a clear and sizeable upgrade over AOC. Every other option is seriously flawed to the point I think the Raiders would be moving two steps backwards to add any of them.
EDIT: Here are the teams ahead of LV who will also probably be looking to draft QBs.
*1.12 Denver
*1.11 Minnesota
1.10 NYJ (not a certainty, but not an impossibility if the team is smart)
1.09 and 1.01 Chicago
*1.08 Atlanta
1.07 TENN (probably not, but not an impossibility)
1.06 NYG
*1.03 NE
*1.02 WAS
*1.01 CHI
The teams I put an * beside will almost certainly be looking to get a QB. They will only not take a QB if they determine there isn't one worth of choosing at that time. There are 6 such teams. Even if two decide the QB leftovers aren't worth their pick, that means LV will be looking at the fifth QB in the NFL draft. It seems very risky to me to spend a high quality 1st round pick on the fifth/sixth best college QB. The team could use that pick on the second best WR or OL.
Last edited by
Anteaters on Mon Jan 08, 2024 9:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, CWilliams
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JFord, Corum, JWright
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Q Johnston, DeDouglas, MCorley
TE: Goedert, Okongwo
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, DLloyd; (DE/DL) Sieler; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion
TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, Singletary, AJD, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, VJefferson, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver, Waller
2023 semifinals loser