Rookie WR Production 2023

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Just for the record, we don’t know what Nico is yet. He could be having a career year and go back to being irrelevant. We have no idea. But of course, outliers are going to happen. The idea is you don’t BET on outliers. If you miss out, you miss out. It’s not a big deal. Secondly, Pittman and Nico had poor open scores, but they’re bigger receivers which are less dependant on “getting open” to an extent. It’s more worrisome when “smaller” WRs such as Addison and JSN have substandard open scores.

Also, Pittman was dealing with compartment syndrome his rookie year, which caused a lot of issues and he was playing at less than 100% for much of the season. Of course it’s a bad idea to use excuses looking FORWARD, but when looking backward I think you can see why it didn’t fire on all cylinders for Pittman as a rookie.

[Menace2010]

What was the open score threshold again? Thought JSN and Addison's e.g. upper 40s wasn't ideal but not super worrisome. But maybe I'm mistaken.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

What was the open score threshold again? Thought JSN and Addison's e.g. upper 40s wasn't ideal but not super worrisome. But maybe I'm mistaken.

Most if not all of the players who succeeded from that range were bigger receivers (like 6’3” or taller). Id have to double check.


Edit: I posted the data here viewtopic.php?p=2229089#p2229089

It appears the only smaller guy to have a lot of success under 50 open score is DJM (edit: Kirk has also been unspectacular but solid). Most of the others are big, Sutton, Mike Williams, Golladay, Nico are all 6’3” or taller. Lamb is 6’2” although I guess you can argue he doesn’t play like a big WR. In any event it’s not exactly ideal. But it’s not a deal breaker either. At least Addison will hit the ypg threshold, it doesn’t appear as if JSN will.

[Cameron Giles]

But this whole thread is specifically talking about historic thresholds to find good players and JSN is in the 74% bust category as it stands today. 13% stud, 13% good, so when you say missing out on good players, the numbers are not in your favor that he's good. I think he can be a WR2 and have 1k yard seasons still, I'm just saying everything as it stands today doesn't indicate that at all.

I think this thread has value in providing possible probabilities based on historical and unbiased data. But again, it's one resource point.

There are valid arguments to why JSN may not live up to his upside. There are also valid arguments to why he may improve and live up to his upside. I don't think either stance is more likely than the other today, but if you believe otherwise based on this thread, then great. It's possible you're right. But, I agree with others in that you shouldn't let just one single resource dictate your view on a player when there are many things to consider.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Updated the Open Scores.

[Mike11]

But this whole thread is specifically talking about historic thresholds to find good players and JSN is in the 74% bust category as it stands today. 13% stud, 13% good, so when you say missing out on good players, the numbers are not in your favor that he's good. I think he can be a WR2 and have 1k yard seasons still, I'm just saying everything as it stands today doesn't indicate that at all.

I think this thread has value in providing possible probabilities based on historical and unbiased data. But again, it's one resource point.

There are valid arguments to why JSN may not live up to his upside. There are also valid arguments to why he may improve and live up to his upside. I don't think either stance is more likely than the other today, but if you believe otherwise based on this thread, then great. It's possible you're right. But, I agree with others in that you shouldn't let just one single resource dictate your view on a player when there are many things to consider.

We keep referencing this as a single source but it's an amalgamation of data ultimately. It looks at the production, the relative hits and misses to that production based of multiple factors. I'm not using it as my only data source but even Matt Harmon with reception perception is underwhelmed with JSN right now and has him outside of his top 20 overall dynasty WRs. So if you look at tape + production + situation none of it is exciting for JSN. It could all absolutely improve I'm just pointing out that the majority of posters in here are still bullish on their JSN shares and won't sell for less than what they paid but the asking price isn't one that's justified. Doesn't mean you panic sell just means I don't see why anyone would buy unless the price is discounted.

[wickerkat1212]

I think JSN is in the category of good/great and won't be a bust. So whether that's 10% or 25%, I just don't see him busting. This isn't drops, this isn't character, it's what...some injury and some situational elements? I want to see what happens when Lockett moves on. I think JSN can be the WR2 there and put up WR2+ numbers.

[wickerkat1212]

Guys that are roster cloggers? Boutte. Such a shame. Probably Hutchinson. I'm holding Tillman shares for now. I like Downs. We'll see.

[murphysxm]

I'm just pointing out that the majority of posters in here are still bullish on their JSN shares and won't sell for less than what they paid but the asking price isn't one that's justified. Doesn't mean you panic sell just means I don't see why anyone would buy unless the price is discounted.

I can only speak for me, but this is a vast misunderstanding of what I personally feel and have shared. I would absolutely sell him for the 1.03 in this class because this class has better WR prospects. I am just stating I don't chalk him up as a bust based on one year because ultimately I like his skill set. I don't see things as black and white as it appears you do.

[Mike11]

I'm just pointing out that the majority of posters in here are still bullish on their JSN shares and won't sell for less than what they paid but the asking price isn't one that's justified. Doesn't mean you panic sell just means I don't see why anyone would buy unless the price is discounted.

I can only speak for me, but this is a vast misunderstanding of what I personally feel and have shared. I would absolutely sell him for the 1.03 in this class because this class has better WR prospects. I am just stating I don't chalk him up as a bust based on one year because ultimately I like his skill set. I don't see things as black and white as it appears you do.

I don't think he's a bust yet, and I don't see it as you must buy or you must sell - what I am saying is too many people value him the way they did before the season and I disagree with that. Some people have him as a top 16 dynasty WR, he's ahead of Zay Flowers, DK, Pittman, Higgins, Rashee Rice, Nico Collins, Pittman and Deebo. I think that's bad, I'd take almost all of them over him.

[BigJoeWall72]

Also, Pittman was dealing with compartment syndrome his rookie year, which caused a lot of issues and he was playing at less than 100% for much of the season. Of course it’s a bad idea to use excuses looking FORWARD, but when looking backward I think you can see why it didn’t fire on all cylinders for Pittman as a rookie.

Since the injury point has been brought up again, I'll drop my post from from a few pages back that didn't get any traction:

Where do we, if at all, factor injuries into this whole thing?

By my recollection, Downs' tumble down the YPG chart started exactly when he picked up an injury (ankle or knee?) that he has been dealing with since. I thought I read that he would likely have surgery after the season, but I can't find that again in my quick search just now.

Downs was playing really well until that injury...

I know Downs didn't technically miss any games, but the injury has been floating around since OTAs apparently and "'the injury never healed' and flare ups have been common throughout the season" based on what Nate Atkins wrote in mid-November.

[Jigga94]

I can see your point and injuries definitely play a part, but thats impossible to fit into a model like this. Also, pretty much everyone is banged up to a degree. I think if you believe in Downs, you can point to the injury as something holding his value down and go buy low. But if I didn't believe in Downs, it wouldn't affect my decision at all

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I can see your point and injuries definitely play a part, but thats impossible to fit into a model like this. Also, pretty much everyone is banged up to a degree. I think if you believe in Downs, you can point to the injury as something holding his value down and go buy low. But if I didn't believe in Downs, it wouldn't affect my decision at all

Yeah, I wouldn’t really recommend using injuries as an excuse. Who ISNT banged up to some degree during the season. If we did that it would apply to basically every player.

If Downs has a chronic knee injury, then that’s bad news, not good news.

[kmbryant09]

So where are we at with Zay Flowers? Impressive rookie year, hits some solid thresholds that likely point to a solid floor & a solid ceiling for his future range of outcomes.

First half of the season reminded me a bit of Jaylen Waddle's rookie year - peppered with lots of targets close to the line of scrimmage and a ton of manufactured touches to get the ball in his hands. We knew Waddle had elite speed already, and Flowers has flashed some big play capability as a rookie - is that a solid comp?

There's some skepticism in this passing offense with the lack of volume, but LJAX is about to win MVP and the offense has really found it's stride recently. Even with Andrews coming back, he'll be another year older (recovering from a serious lower body injury), and 1 of Bateman / OBJ will likely be moving on. Plus BAL's defense & rushing attack was about as elite as could be, which inversely limits the number of times an offense will throw. I think there's some sneaky upside for Flowers in 2024 + beyond.

I see Flowers as a solid WR #2 with WR #1 upside for next year - around WR ~15 overall for me in dynasty - too high or too low?

[Bronco Billy]

Where do we, if at all, factor injuries into this whole thing?

Use your own judgment, even if :shudder: it means ignoring the analysis.

If you think Downs (or any other player) can play based on your observations, you hold and wait for next season. What’s your alternative? Dropping him? Trading him for a ‘24 3rd rounder?

I’m absolutely holding on my 4 players that didn’t make it above the cut line. I’ll wait to see how they develop moving into next year unless someone throws me an offer I can’t refuse.