Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[CGW]

I'm still giving a pass to most "old" players right now due to COVID years. We won't have to factor it in much longer, but I'm less worried about "older" declares right now than in the past, or will in the future, because of these strange circumstances.

[DJB]

And just like that Penix has the game of his life in Primetime. Hahah

Im still not a believe however and he’s old as F for a prospect

He is old, but it is because of devastating injuries that he fought through every time. He has always been a plus QB when healthy.

How much does “old” figure into it when we’re seeing QBs play into their late 30s to 40+ yrs old? Or is his success because he’s essentially an adult playing against kids?

Most definitely the latter.

Yes he’s had injuries but he didn’t do a ton his first few years . Now he’s an older prospect and the NFL success rate is low . Certainly could be an outlier however and I hope he is

[Sriracha]

He is old, but it is because of devastating injuries that he fought through every time. He has always been a plus QB when healthy.

How much does “old” figure into it when we’re seeing QBs play into their late 30s to 40+ yrs old? Or is his success because he’s essentially an adult playing against kids?

Most definitely the latter.

Yes he’s had injuries but he didn’t do a ton his first few years . Now he’s an older prospect and the NFL success rate is low . Certainly could be an outlier however and I hope he is

Penix balled out at Indiana as a red shirt freshman.

His seasons were just cut short by a litany of season ending injuries.

The notion that he's only succeeding because he's an older player is pretty flawed. He has real arm talent even if he's still scratching the surface of his upside there.

[ButtFumbleCity]

How much does “old” figure into it when we’re seeing QBs play into their late 30s to 40+ yrs old? Or is his success because he’s essentially an adult playing against kids?

Most definitely the latter.

Yes he’s had injuries but he didn’t do a ton his first few years . Now he’s an older prospect and the NFL success rate is low . Certainly could be an outlier however and I hope he is

Penix balled out at Indiana as a red shirt freshman.

His seasons were just cut short by a litany of season ending injuries.

The notion that he's only succeeding because he's an older player is pretty flawed. He has real arm talent even if he's still scratching the surface of his upside there.

Yep he made players like Whop Philyor and Ty Fryfogle look like NFL prospects.

[Hottoddies]

He is old, but it is because of devastating injuries that he fought through every time. He has always been a plus QB when healthy.

How much does “old” figure into it when we’re seeing QBs play into their late 30s to 40+ yrs old? Or is his success because he’s essentially an adult playing against kids?

Might have to change Love from a miss to a hit, and maybe Baker as well. In any event, the hit rate goes down when the QB entering the league is 23 or older. And even if the older qbs do hit, the quality of the hit also goes down.

Kinda got me wondering so i did a little digging. Past 25 years of 1st round QBs. I did the best I could categorizing hits and misses.

Age 21-22 group roughly the same in terms of upside and hit rate.

Age 23 group, the hits weren't even that great. Only Burrow seems to have a big upside in terms of stat padding.

Age 24 group

___________________________
Draft Age of 23-24 hit rate: 25%
Draft Age of 21-22 hit rate: 50%
___________________________


Draft Age of 24

Hits (1)
Tannehill

Misses (3)
Pennington
Akili Smith
Jim Druckenmiller

Hit Rate : 25%
Bust Rate: 75%



Draft Age of 23

Hits (6)
Joe Burrow
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Jay Cutler
Eli Manning
Carson Palmer

Misses (16)
Baker Mayfield
Mitchell Trubisky
Carson Wentz
EJ Manuel
Jake Locker
Christian Ponder
Tim Tebow
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jason Campbell
JP Losman
Byron Leftwich
Rex Grossman
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Rmasey


Hit Rate : 27%
Bust Rate: 73%



Draft Age of 22

Hits (12)
Justin Herbert
Josh Allen
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
Donovan McNabb
Daunte Culpepper
Peyton Manning
Steve McNair
Kyler Murray
Tua Tagovailoa

Misses (12)
Dwayne Haskins
Paxton Lynch
Blake Bortles
Robert Griffin III
Sam Bradford
Mark Sanchez
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Kyle Boller
Tim Couch
Cade McNown
Ryan Leaf

Unsure
Daniel Jones
Kerry Collins


Hit Rate : 50%
Bust Rate: 50%



Draft Age of 21

Hits (8)
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
Deshaun Watson
Matthew Stafford
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Michael Vick
Jared Goff

Misses (9)
Jordan Love
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
Blaine Gabbert
Josh Freeman


Hit Rate: 47%
Bust Rate: 53%

The key is understanding just what the statistics are telling us. The truth is not that declaring for the draft at an early age increases the odds for a prospect's success but rather that most great QBs with a high chance at NFL success declare for the draft at an early age. Half of the prospects that declare for the draft at an early age bust. The age of a QB when they declare has absolutely no determination on their chances of success. Did Josh Freeman or Blaine Gabbert have a greater chance at success than Matt Ryan or Joe Burrow because they declared at an earlier age? Matt Ryan and Joe Burrow are not outliers because they are late declares that succeeded but rather successful QBs that declared at a later age. What these stats do say is that successful QBs have a greater chance at declaring early.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

How much does “old” figure into it when we’re seeing QBs play into their late 30s to 40+ yrs old? Or is his success because he’s essentially an adult playing against kids?

Might have to change Love from a miss to a hit, and maybe Baker as well. In any event, the hit rate goes down when the QB entering the league is 23 or older. And even if the older qbs do hit, the quality of the hit also goes down.

Kinda got me wondering so i did a little digging. Past 25 years of 1st round QBs. I did the best I could categorizing hits and misses.

Age 21-22 group roughly the same in terms of upside and hit rate.

Age 23 group, the hits weren't even that great. Only Burrow seems to have a big upside in terms of stat padding.

Age 24 group

___________________________
Draft Age of 23-24 hit rate: 25%
Draft Age of 21-22 hit rate: 50%
___________________________


Draft Age of 24

Hits (1)
Tannehill

Misses (3)
Pennington
Akili Smith
Jim Druckenmiller

Hit Rate : 25%
Bust Rate: 75%



Draft Age of 23

Hits (6)
Joe Burrow
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Jay Cutler
Eli Manning
Carson Palmer

Misses (16)
Baker Mayfield
Mitchell Trubisky
Carson Wentz
EJ Manuel
Jake Locker
Christian Ponder
Tim Tebow
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jason Campbell
JP Losman
Byron Leftwich
Rex Grossman
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Rmasey


Hit Rate : 27%
Bust Rate: 73%



Draft Age of 22

Hits (12)
Justin Herbert
Josh Allen
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
Donovan McNabb
Daunte Culpepper
Peyton Manning
Steve McNair
Kyler Murray
Tua Tagovailoa

Misses (12)
Dwayne Haskins
Paxton Lynch
Blake Bortles
Robert Griffin III
Sam Bradford
Mark Sanchez
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Kyle Boller
Tim Couch
Cade McNown
Ryan Leaf

Unsure
Daniel Jones
Kerry Collins


Hit Rate : 50%
Bust Rate: 50%



Draft Age of 21

Hits (8)
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
Deshaun Watson
Matthew Stafford
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Michael Vick
Jared Goff

Misses (9)
Jordan Love
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
Blaine Gabbert
Josh Freeman


Hit Rate: 47%
Bust Rate: 53%

The key is understanding just what the statistics are telling us. The truth is not that declaring for the draft at an early age increases the odds for a prospect's success but rather that most great QBs with a high chance at NFL success declare for the draft at an early age. Half of the prospects that declare for the draft at an early age bust. The age of a QB when they declare has absolutely no determination on their chances of success. Did Josh Freeman or Blaine Gabbert have a greater chance at success than Matt Ryan or Joe Burrow because they declared at an earlier age? Matt Ryan and Joe Burrow are not outliers because they are late declares that succeeded but rather successful QBs that declared at a later age. What these stats do say is that successful QBs have a greater chance at declaring early.

Well yeah, I assumed most people understood that.

[mild]

Quite interesting if people aren't following:

The SoS dividing 1.02 Washington from 1.03 New England is currently one game.

The swing game this weekend, assuming both WAS and NE lose their games, is Atlanta vs. New Orleans.

If you want the 1.02 to stay away from Boston, then join me in rooting for one final Arthur Smith loss.

Breakdown of it all here.

[trc]

Quite interesting if people aren't following:

The SoS dividing 1.02 Washington from 1.03 New England is currently one game.

The swing game this weekend, assuming both WAS and NE lose their games, is Atlanta vs. New Orleans.

If you want the 1.02 to stay away from Boston, then join me in rooting for one final Arthur Smith loss.

Breakdown of it all here.

Not entirely correct, several games still have impact - this specific games counts double though.

[Jigga94]

Quite interesting if people aren't following:

The SoS dividing 1.02 Washington from 1.03 New England is currently one game.

The swing game this weekend, assuming both WAS and NE lose their games, is Atlanta vs. New Orleans.

If you want the 1.02 to stay away from Boston, then join me in rooting for one final Arthur Smith loss.

Breakdown of it all here.

Say no more

[mild]

Quite interesting if people aren't following:

The SoS dividing 1.02 Washington from 1.03 New England is currently one game.

The swing game this weekend, assuming both WAS and NE lose their games, is Atlanta vs. New Orleans.

If you want the 1.02 to stay away from Boston, then join me in rooting for one final Arthur Smith loss.

Breakdown of it all here.

Not entirely correct, several games still have impact - this specific games counts double though.

Actually entirely correct. Read it again.

Commanders W/L of all opponents: 140-132
Pats W/L of all opponents: 141-131

Literally one game difference in their SoS records.

Reading comprehension: it's not for everyone.

[yinzername]

Jonathan Brooks declares

[Quinty]

Quite interesting if people aren't following:

The SoS dividing 1.02 Washington from 1.03 New England is currently one game.

The swing game this weekend, assuming both WAS and NE lose their games, is Atlanta vs. New Orleans.

If you want the 1.02 to stay away from Boston, then join me in rooting for one final Arthur Smith loss.

Breakdown of it all here.

Not entirely correct, several games still have impact - this specific games counts double though.

Actually entirely correct. Read it again.

Commanders W/L of all opponents: 140-132
Pats W/L of all opponents: 141-131

Literally one game difference in their SoS records.

Reading comprehension: it's not for everyone.

Actually, TRC is correct.

I was going to write up a detailed explanation, but since reading comprehension isn't for everyone, I'll just copy and paste what I wrote elsewhere and someone can read this to mild.

For the record, 5 games matter.

Atl vs NO
Den vs LV
Ten vs Indy
Pitts vs Balt
Chi vs GB

Assuming both Washington and New England lose, and no ties to keep things simple.

For Week 18:
Washington needs Chicago and Atlanta to lose to clinch the #2 seed.

If Chicago wins and Atlanta loses, then Washington needs 1 of Indy, Pittsburgh, and Las Vegas to win next week to clinch the #2 seed.
If Chicago loses and Atlanta wins, then Washington needs 2 of Indy, Pittsburgh, and Las Vegas to win next week to clinch the #2 seed.
If Chicago wins and Atlanta wins, then Washington needs all 3 of Indy, Pittsburgh, and Las Vegas to win next week to clinch the #2 seed.

[mild]

Not entirely correct, several games still have impact - this specific games counts double though.

Actually entirely correct. Read it again.

Commanders W/L of all opponents: 140-132
Pats W/L of all opponents: 141-131

Literally one game difference in their SoS records.

Reading comprehension: it's not for everyone.

Actually, TRC is correct.

I was going to write up a detailed explanation, but since reading comprehension isn't for everyone, I'll just copy and paste what I wrote elsewhere and someone can read this to mild.

JFC

TRC is correct that there are 5 games that will determine 1.02 / 1.03 in the event of a tiebreaker.

He is incorrect to question this line:

The SoS dividing 1.02 Washington from 1.03 New England is currently one game.

Emphasis mine.

Once again, their records:

Commanders W/L of all opponents: 140-132
Pats W/L of all opponents: 141-131

Literally one game difference in their SoS records.

Reading comprehension. Jesus Christ.

[Cameron Giles]

Jonathan Brooks declares

Possibly a Top 3 RB in this class with Devin Neal going back to school.

[Quinty]

What makes more sense?

The SoS dividing 1.02 Washington from 1.03 New England is currently one game.

Not entirely correct, several games still have impact - this specific games counts double though.

or

The swing game this weekend, assuming both WAS and NE lose their games, is Atlanta vs. New Orleans.

Not entirely correct, several games still have impact - this specific games counts double though.

Sure looks like the wrong line was initially highlighted although the intent of his post was clear to some of us. Something something comprehension.