Jordan Love: Superflex talk

[Sriracha]

Flawed way to look at things.

Most of the games Lamar has missed came in his worst year in terms of win% where the defense and O-line suffered a ton of critical injuries and they were terrible.

I presented nothing but straight facts, homie.

If you can't respect Lamar winning 75% of all the games he's played, nor his 13-3 record this year in Baltimore, nor him having his best offensive season since... *checks notes* "the last time he won MVP"

Then yeah, dunno what to tell ya!

Yeah, I edited my comment a little too late I guess.

2022 is pretty strong evidence I may be underrating his impact here

[FantasyFreak]

At the essence of the award, Packers are probably worse off without Jordan Love than the Ravens would be without Lamar.

Packers have the 29th DVOA defense, have suffered a litany of injuries and have had a much maligned running game all year coupled with by orders of magnitude the youngest receiving core in NFL history still in the playoff Hunt.

The Ravens have the #1 defense in the NFL with a strong running game. Even with Tyler Huntley they’re probably flirting with the playoffs.

Preface: I like Jordan Love. I'm taking absolutely zero away from him.

But we actually have numbers for this.

Lamar is the QB for the best team in the league, at this point of the Regular Season. He deserves the Regular Season MVP award.

The Ravens are 58-19 in the Lamar Jackson era when Lamar Jackson is the starter. (75.3% win)
The Ravens are 4-8 in the Lamar Jackson era when Lamar Jackson is sidelined. (33.3% win)

For all that any hater can leverage at Lamar, the [He does what it takes. His win rate is, and has always been - quite frankly - absurd.
[/b]
He deserves respect for this 13-3 record. I don't think a 0.333 win rate (or perhaps even lower) would have this team sniffing the Playoffs in this AFC.

Without Lamar last year in 2022 - with a Ravens defense not dissimilar to this one - the Ravens went 1-5 and averaged 13 points a game.

In 2023, with Lamar - they have gone 13-3, and averaged 29.6 points per game. That's 0.5PPG behind 1st place MIA, with BAL in 2nd. Absurd.

It's Lamar "Action" Jackson. He's the difference. He's the MVP.

Mr. politiciian at it again. Throwing a bunch of junk that means nothing. MVP is a yearly award, my man. Rosters change yearly, a do OC's. I don't argue that Lamar should win it, but this argument is just so flawed.

To the bolded. Win rate? What JUNK. How do you think Cifford's win rate would have been this year? You use the wort fact, with something that is actually factual. There's no metric that people agree upon, on your made up term. Win rate isn't a metric vs backups that's valid. Sure, you can grab a bunch of stats that back up your made up fact, cool. Nobody talks about that. What backup? Who is the backup?

I do think there maybe should be a split MVP this year. Lamar/CMC. They should make the award a non QB award, because Lamar has been so hot and cold this year. He threw 9TD's in his first 9 games. Want to be prisoners of the moment? Sure Lamar over the last 2 games is MVP, but last time I checked, it was a seasonal award.

Your argument has more "action" in creating a straw man for MVP, than traction. That's for sure.

[Tvols]

At the essence of the award, Packers are probably worse off without Jordan Love than the Ravens would be without Lamar.

Packers have the 29th DVOA defense, have suffered a litany of injuries and have had a much maligned running game all year coupled with by orders of magnitude the youngest receiving core in NFL history still in the playoff Hunt.

The Ravens have the #1 defense in the NFL with a strong running game. Even with Tyler Huntley they’re probably flirting with the playoffs.

Preface: I like Jordan Love. I'm taking absolutely zero away from him.

But we actually have numbers for this.

Lamar is the QB for the best team in the league, at this point of the Regular Season. He deserves the Regular Season MVP award.

The Ravens are 58-19 in the Lamar Jackson era when Lamar Jackson is the starter. (75.3% win)
The Ravens are 4-8 in the Lamar Jackson era when Lamar Jackson is sidelined. (33.3% win)

For all that any hater can leverage at Lamar, the [He does what it takes. His win rate is, and has always been - quite frankly - absurd.
[/b]
He deserves respect for this 13-3 record. I don't think a 0.333 win rate (or perhaps even lower) would have this team sniffing the Playoffs in this AFC.

Without Lamar last year in 2022 - with a Ravens defense not dissimilar to this one - the Ravens went 1-5 and averaged 13 points a game.

In 2023, with Lamar - they have gone 13-3, and averaged 29.6 points per game. That's 0.5PPG behind 1st place MIA, with BAL in 2nd. Absurd.

It's Lamar "Action" Jackson. He's the difference. He's the MVP.

Mr. politiciian at it again. Throwing a bunch of junk that means nothing. MVP is a yearly award, my man. Rosters change yearly, a do OC's. I don't argue that Lamar should win it, but this argument is just so flawed.

To the bolded. What JUNK. Win rate? How do you think Cifford's win rate would have been this year? You use the wort fact, with something that is actually factual. There's no metric that people agree upon, on your made up term. Win rate isn't a metric vs backups that's valid. Sure, you can grab a bunch of stats that back up your made up fact, cool. Nobody talks about that. What backup? Who is the backup?

I do think there maybe should be a split MVP this year. Lamar/CMC. They should make the award a non QB award, because Lamar has been so hot and cold this year. He threw 9TD's in his first 9 games. Want to be prisoners of the moment? Sure Lamar over the last 2 games is MVP, but last time I checked, it was a seasonal award.

Your argument has more "action" in creating a strawman for MVP, than traction. That's for sure.

Lmao agreed

[FantasyFreak]

Preface: I like Jordan Love. I'm taking absolutely zero away from him.

But we actually have numbers for this.

Lamar is the QB for the best team in the league, at this point of the Regular Season. He deserves the Regular Season MVP award.

The Ravens are 58-19 in the Lamar Jackson era when Lamar Jackson is the starter. (75.3% win)
The Ravens are 4-8 in the Lamar Jackson era when Lamar Jackson is sidelined. (33.3% win)

For all that any hater can leverage at Lamar, the [He does what it takes. His win rate is, and has always been - quite frankly - absurd.
[/b]
He deserves respect for this 13-3 record. I don't think a 0.333 win rate (or perhaps even lower) would have this team sniffing the Playoffs in this AFC.

Without Lamar last year in 2022 - with a Ravens defense not dissimilar to this one - the Ravens went 1-5 and averaged 13 points a game.

In 2023, with Lamar - they have gone 13-3, and averaged 29.6 points per game. That's 0.5PPG behind 1st place MIA, with BAL in 2nd. Absurd.

It's Lamar "Action" Jackson. He's the difference. He's the MVP.

Mr. politiciian at it again. Throwing a bunch of junk that means nothing. MVP is a yearly award, my man. Rosters change yearly, a do OC's. I don't argue that Lamar should win it, but this argument is just so flawed.

To the bolded. What JUNK. Win rate? How do you think Cifford's win rate would have been this year? You use the wort fact, with something that is actually factual. There's no metric that people agree upon, on your made up term. Win rate isn't a metric vs backups that's valid. Sure, you can grab a bunch of stats that back up your made up fact, cool. Nobody talks about that. What backup? Who is the backup?

I do think there maybe should be a split MVP this year. Lamar/CMC. They should make the award a non QB award, because Lamar has been so hot and cold this year. He threw 9TD's in his first 9 games. Want to be prisoners of the moment? Sure Lamar over the last 2 games is MVP, but last time I checked, it was a seasonal award.

Your argument has more "action" in creating a strawman for MVP, than traction. That's for sure.

Lmao agreed

ah, I'm busting balls, but Lamar is just the best at the moment, of a really up and down year, overall, for QB's.

He'll win it, because it's a media award, at this point. A QB award. But Richard Sherman is right, it's not that he doesn't deserve it, it just doesn't fit with the recent narrative of what MVP's are.

MVP is kind of a poplularity contest at this point anyway, the SB is what matters, and that's it, except for contract negotiations at this point. Who's to say that players don't have agents pay writers off, who vote, either? No this isn't Alex Jones's Burner. Just putting it off the "win rate" argument, that means nothing.

Let's be real, there really hasn't been a clear cut guy all year, and Lamar will win it based on a few games near the end of the year, because he was, fantastic, no doubt. He won it for 2 games, not 17, it's just nobody showed out this year, due to injuries, and other factors. Lamar, 2 games ago, wasn't an MVP candidate in any other year. Richard Sherman broke it down so well. The difference is, Sherman thinks he won't win it, because he doesn't have the numbers, and I do, because nobody else has asserted themselves enough, that the hot hand the last few weeks, gets it.

[Jigga94]

Mr. politiciian at it again. Throwing a bunch of junk that means nothing. MVP is a yearly award, my man. Rosters change yearly, a do OC's. I don't argue that Lamar should win it, but this argument is just so flawed.

To the bolded. What JUNK. Win rate? How do you think Cifford's win rate would have been this year? You use the wort fact, with something that is actually factual. There's no metric that people agree upon, on your made up term. Win rate isn't a metric vs backups that's valid. Sure, you can grab a bunch of stats that back up your made up fact, cool. Nobody talks about that. What backup? Who is the backup?

I do think there maybe should be a split MVP this year. Lamar/CMC. They should make the award a non QB award, because Lamar has been so hot and cold this year. He threw 9TD's in his first 9 games. Want to be prisoners of the moment? Sure Lamar over the last 2 games is MVP, but last time I checked, it was a seasonal award.

Your argument has more "action" in creating a strawman for MVP, than traction. That's for sure.

Lmao agreed

ah, I'm busting balls, but Lamar is just the best at the moment, of a really up and down year, overall, for QB's.

He'll win it, because it's a media award, at this point. A QB award. But Richard Sherman is right, it's not that he doesn't deserve it, it just doesn't fit with the recent narrative of what MVP's are.

MVP is kind of a poplularity contest at this point anyway, the SB is what matters, and that's it, except for contract negotiations at this point. Who's to say that players don't have agents pay writers off, who vote, either? No this isn't Alex Jones's Burner. Just putting it off the "win rate" argument, that means nothing.

Let's be real, there really hasn't been a clear cut guy all year, and Lamar will win it based on a few games near the end of the year, because he was, fantastic, no doubt. He won it for 2 games, not 17, it's just nobody showed out this year, due to injuries, and other factors. Lamar, 2 games ago, wasn't an MVP candidate in any other year. Richard Sherman broke it down so well. The difference is, Sherman thinks he won't win it, because he doesn't have the numbers, and I do, because nobody else has asserted themselves enough, that the hot hand the last few weeks, gets it.

Lamar doesn't even have an agent, Alex

[Anteaters]

Lamar will win MVP because he's an excellent QB on the best team in the NFL, and he has fantastic stats on the season. While others can try argue other teams are "better", Baltimore is the #1 seed in the AFC, has the overall best record in the NFL, Jackson is in the top 4 for season long QBR, leads QB rushing yards by nearly 200 yards, and he has the offense humming along at peak efficiency ... and he has not missed a single game.

Frankly, it's hard to say any QB has performed better than Lamar, taking the season as a whole. That's adding up everything, from passing to rushing to leadership to team success to health to whatever. You can argue it, but it's hard to prove he doesn't deserve it. Not the most passing yards or TDs? Nope and so what. Not "quarterbacky" enough for you? Too bad. Unworthy of MVP? Only to those trying to make a failing case for players who didn't quite do enough to be the best in 2023

CMC and Tyreek had their chances, and both have been otherwise spectacular. But they had to ball out all season and both have stumbled, both have had injuries, and well, that's that.

[tstafford]

With respect to Love SF value, would like to understand how folks see him vs. the 2024 class. Two questions:
What's the highest pick you'd give for Love right now?
Do you have him above or below CW, Maye and Daniels?
(those two questions are similar but different)

Thanks in advance.

[Anteaters]

With respect to Love SF value, would like to understand how folks see him vs. the 2024 class. Two questions:
What's the highest pick you'd give for Love right now?
Do you have him above or below CW, Maye and Daniels?
(those two questions are similar but different)

Thanks in advance.

Love is a backend QB1 for me (QB9-14) going into the offseason. Solid floor and with room to be even better.

I'd put Love above every 2024 rookie, without a second thought. An easy decision for me.

In SF I'd give up the 1.01 for him ... unless I didn't need a QB and planned to draft MHJr. QB:QB, it's hard to argue any rookie should be more valued than a young veteran (potentially) T10QB. I rarely project college QBs to be QB1 values. It's always a bit of a crapshoot. Love is well beyond the maybe-he-will and maybe-he-could-be stage. Love is proven.

[Jigga94]

I'm still taking Caleb straight up and wouldn't trade the 1.03 or higher for Love in SF as that pick can be used in a better way. I really like Love though. Without looking at ranks he should be top 12, somewhere between 8 and 12 probably.

[hoos89]

Love was QB5 this year, and in my 6pt pass TD -4 pt INT league he has been QB2 in PPG (behind only Lamar) since week 11 (18 total TDs vs 1 INT in that span). He's got a receiving corps in the bottom 5-10 in the league (especially with Watson out half the games), not much help at TE and a middle of the road running game. This is also his first year starting (and he's with a franchise that has a really good QB track record).

Hot take - I prefer Love to Lawrence straight up right now.

[mild]

Love was QB5 this year, and in my 6pt pass TD -4 pt INT league he has been QB2 in PPG (behind only Lamar) since week 11 (18 total TDs vs 1 INT in that span). He's got a receiving corps in the bottom 5-10 in the league (especially with Watson out half the games), not much help at TE and a middle of the road running game. This is also his first year starting (and he's with a franchise that has a really good QB track record).

Hot take - I prefer Love to Lawrence straight up right now.

I think you'll have a lot of takers on that one.

The line to me where it gets interesting to me is Love vs. Herbert

[MacDaddy123]

With respect to Love SF value, would like to understand how folks see him vs. the 2024 class. Two questions:
What's the highest pick you'd give for Love right now?
Do you have him above or below CW, Maye and Daniels?
(those two questions are similar but different)

Thanks in advance.

Interesting questions.
Love was QB5 in my SF leagues this season.
In one league I traded away Love + Wan'Dale for Kyler + Charbonnet after week 2.
I thought that was a big W at that time, now, I am not so sure.

What is hard to figure out is season to season regression/progression, as in 2022, Geno Smith was the QB5, Lawrence was QB8, Daniel Jones was QB9.
Maybe not with Geno, but with TLaw and DJ, most expected that 2023 would show continued progression.

All 2023 showed was that no one should expect progression. Regression is just as likely as progression.
Sometimes good seasons are anomalies.

At this point I would say that I would still take Caleb Williams and MHJ over Love, but that at 1.03, I would start to consider trading that pick for Love.

[Anteaters]

All 2023 showed was that no one should expect progression.

I've found this to be true.

Too often, when a player has a a good year, too many people assume it's a step to an even higher level of production. Sometimes it is. Sometimes it is not.

The key for me is paying attention to the entire situation. Stats in a vacuum or in a dark closet, don't tell us enough actionable information.

I don't expect Love to progress very much stats wise, but I expect him to improve as a QB (something Daniel Jones has been unable to do) and that will allow us to use his 2023 season as a baseline around which we can reasonably expect Love to flutter. A QB5 season today, QB 8 next year, QB4 in 2025, QB11 the year after.

After seeing him play and considering his situation in total, that's what I now expect from Love. #Love>Herbert

[Sriracha]

All 2023 showed was that no one should expect progression.

I've found this to be true.

Too often, when a player has a a good year, too many people assume it's a step to an even higher level of production. Sometimes it is. Sometimes it is not.

The key for me is paying attention to the entire situation. Stats in a vacuum or in a dark closet, don't tell us enough actionable information.

I don't expect Love to progress very much stats wise, but I expect him to improve as a QB (something Daniel Jones has been unable to do) and that will allow us to use his 2023 season as a baseline around which we can reasonably expect Love to flutter. A QB5 season today, QB 8 next year, QB4 in 2025, QB11 the year after.

After seeing him play and considering his situation in total, that's what I now expect from Love. #Love>Herbert

While I agree with this logic in general it's important to note the great divide between Love's play before and after PIT.

Love is the highest graded QB since week 12 via PFF
He has a 16-1 TD to INT ratio since then which would put him on pace for 45 TDs on the year
His advanced stats across the board are all very good to elite
He has the highest passer rating from a clean pocket in the NFL
Top 4 passer rating under pressure
He has by far the lowest sack rate vs the Blitz at 3.7%, a 10-1 TD to INT ratio and is the 5th highest graded QB on the entire season (including weeks 4-8 where he played genuinely bad football) while being blitzed on 46.4% of his drop backs (next highest team are the Saints at 39.7%).
He's top 3 in EPA vs top 10 defenses

All of this while throwing to the youngest receiving core of all time

So he is a QB excelling in all phases of QB: From a clean pocket, under pressure, vs the blitz, vs strong passing defenses and has receiving core that will likely see some growth going into next year.

I won't say regression is entirely off the board but I think it's far more likely we see progression next year given that nothing about Love's play has been a mirage.

[Anteaters]

All 2023 showed was that no one should expect progression.

I've found this to be true.

Too often, when a player has a a good year, too many people assume it's a step to an even higher level of production. Sometimes it is. Sometimes it is not.

The key for me is paying attention to the entire situation. Stats in a vacuum or in a dark closet, don't tell us enough actionable information.

I don't expect Love to progress very much stats wise, but I expect him to improve as a QB (something Daniel Jones has been unable to do) and that will allow us to use his 2023 season as a baseline around which we can reasonably expect Love to flutter. A QB5 season today, QB 8 next year, QB4 in 2025, QB11 the year after.

After seeing him play and considering his situation in total, that's what I now expect from Love. #Love>Herbert

While I agree with this logic in general it's important to note the great divide between Love's play before and after PIT.

Love is the highest graded QB since week 12 via PFF
He has a 16-1 TD to INT ratio since then which would put him on pace for 45 TDs on the year
His advanced stats across the board are all very good to elite
He has the highest passer rating from a clean pocket in the NFL
Top 4 passer rating under pressure
He has by far the lowest sack rate vs the Blitz at 3.7%, a 10-1 TD to INT ratio and is the 5th highest graded QB on the entire season (including weeks 4-10 where he played genuinely bad football) while being blitzed on 46.4% of his drop backs (next highest team are the Saints at 39.7%).
He's top 3 in EPA vs top 10 defenses

All of this while throwing to the youngest receiving core of all time

So he is a QB excelling in all phases of QB: From a clean pocket, under pressure, vs the blitz, vs strong passing defenses and has receiving core that will likely see some growth going into next year.

I won't say regression is entirely off the board but I think it's far more likely we see progression next year given that nothing about Love's play has been a mirage.

If you're using 16:1 TD:INT ratio as a baseline for anything, I think that going to lead to a misjudgement in Love's future stats. Every good player has a small-sample-size stat sheet that would blow our minds if extrapolated out to a whole season.

It's great to be excited about Love if you roster him. But it's not smart to vastly overpay for him if you don't have him and think his 16:1 ratio in a small sample size is an indication he's going to go 48TDs and 4INTs in 2024. I can imagine someone in some SF league this offseason is going to offer TLaw+1.03+2.03 to acquire Love. That would be a bad trade.

Regression is not a bad word. It's simply a fact of life. Things are never as bad as the worst seems, and never as great as the best seems. Love's future is based on something less than a 16:1 TD:Int ratio.