Rookie WR Production 2023

[Bronco Billy]

I get it, but looking back at previous years, you're thanking your lucky stars if just 1 of the players in that ypg range turns into something worthwhile. Right now there's 4-5 players in that range that people are touting (Downs, Douglas, Reed, JSN, Wilson), and they're all saying exactly what you're saying. That they've seen what they needed to see and aren't going to sell. But the most likely scenario, at least in my opinion, is that most of them will be roster cloggers.

And this year could just as easily be the anomaly. If you are a slave to these statistics you could very well be selling off an important piece of future success and enhancing your opponents - for what, a ticket in a future lottery? I don’t know about your leagues, but in mine consistent WR2s and WR3s are valuable assets.

Yeah, like I said I get it, and that could be the case, but my point was that people say what you’re saying right now every year. In general it’s not going to work out. That’s all I’m saying. And I’m not saying to just give them away either, you ideally would be getting same or even better odds back in return via trade.

Yep, understood. I trust my eyes more than I trust categorizing individuals by historical statistical groups. Doesn’t make me any better at this game than anyone else and their criteria, but I can live with the mistakes more.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

And this year could just as easily be the anomaly. If you are a slave to these statistics you could very well be selling off an important piece of future success and enhancing your opponents - for what, a ticket in a future lottery? I don’t know about your leagues, but in mine consistent WR2s and WR3s are valuable assets.

Yeah, like I said I get it, and that could be the case, but my point was that people say what you’re saying right now every year. In general it’s not going to work out. That’s all I’m saying. And I’m not saying to just give them away either, you ideally would be getting same or even better odds back in return via trade.

If you were moving Reed right now in terms of rookie picks, what would be the most realistic deal to match what you're saying?

Think I said above (edited in), late 1st, or multiple 2nds, or 2nd + player. That’s the type of deal I’d be aiming for. My assumption is SF and potentially TE Prem leagues. Single qb changes things.

I should also mention if you own Reed in multiple leagues, I’m not saying you have to sell all your shares no matter what. What I would advocate is shop him around in all your leagues, and the one or two leagues that refuse to pay up, just keep him. And sell him in the others. I’m not advocating to just get rid of the guy at all cost in all leagues.

[Cameron Giles]

Yeah, like I said I get it, and that could be the case, but my point was that people say what you’re saying right now every year. In general it’s not going to work out. That’s all I’m saying. And I’m not saying to just give them away either, you ideally would be getting same or even better odds back in return via trade.

If you were moving Reed right now in terms of rookie picks, what would be the most realistic deal to match what you're saying?

Think I said above (edited in), late 1st, or multiple 2nds, or 2nd + player. That’s the type of deal I’d be aiming for. My assumption is SF and potentially TE Prem leagues. Single qb changes things.

I could see a late 1st in 2QB being worthwhile.

In 1QB, I agree...it doesn't seem like you're actually gaining anything and you're probably at more risk of re-rolling on worse production.

[tstafford]

If you were moving Reed right now in terms of rookie picks, what would be the most realistic deal to match what you're saying?

Think I said above (edited in), late 1st, or multiple 2nds, or 2nd + player. That’s the type of deal I’d be aiming for. My assumption is SF and potentially TE Prem leagues. Single qb changes things.

I could see a late 1st in 2QB being worthwhile.

In 1QB, I agree...it doesn't seem like you're actually gaining anything and you're probably at more risk of re-rolling on worse production.

I wonder what percentage of leagues that would happen in. I'm guessing selling Reed for a late 1st in SF right now would be fairly tough. I have a suspicion he's in that zone of players where the ask is too high and the offer is too low - so deals rarely happen. Could be wrong.

[Bronco Billy]

Think I said above (edited in), late 1st, or multiple 2nds, or 2nd + player. That’s the type of deal I’d be aiming for. My assumption is SF and potentially TE Prem leagues. Single qb changes things.

I could see a late 1st in 2QB being worthwhile.

In 1QB, I agree...it doesn't seem like you're actually gaining anything and you're probably at more risk of re-rolling on worse production.

I wonder what percentage of leagues that would happen in. I'm guessing selling Reed for a late 1st in SF right now would be fairly tough. I have a suspicion he's in that zone of players where the ask is too high and the offer is too low - so deals rarely happen. Could be wrong.

Yeah, especially with this class being QB heavy and some very solid upper level WRs also incoming. I picked up Reed with a midround 2nd rounder and would likely be recouping what? Maybe a gain of 3-5 spots in a draft a year later?

[moishetreats]

I think, in many ways, we can look at this through probabilities (as DD is) or gut feel (as, say, BB is).

In all probability (as I think DD's model would suggest), each of the guys we're talking about now (Reed, JSN, Downs, Wilson, Douglas) will bust. So, from a statistical standpoint, if you can turn one of those players into two players with similar hit/bust ratios, then that's a smart call -- potentially even a no-brainer. Better to have two shots at someone hitting than one.

That being said, statistically, one of those guys is going to hit -- and hit big. If your gut (or eyes or own analysis or anything else) is confident that Player X is going to that one (or that this is the year when, despite the odds, mulitple players in that group will hit), then you're certainly not selling for two random shots. You'll treat him as if he performed like a higher-tier player in DD's model.

I don't think either approach is good / bad, better / worse, smart / dumb. Rather, I look at them as a check-and-balance. Are you super-high on one of those five guys? You can use DD's model perhaps to reign in fandom. Are you always buying or selling simply because of stats? Presuming you watch a lot of football, sometimes players just look or don't look the part. You can use your own insights to make purposeful decisions.

For me, I look at DD's unbelievable work (and thank you, thank you, thank you again!!) as an essential starting point. The correlative data is clear, and that's my beginning. I might have a reason to deviate from the data (gut, watching players, etc.) -- and that's not only okay but necessary. I simply feel like I'm making a much more informed and purposeful decision. At least that's how I use this, and I am deeply grateful for it!

[murphysxm]

As someone that leans BB's way (ie I trust my eyes over statistics or analytics in a bubble) I do think there is a clear trend of people that make trades to "stay ahead of the curve" because the value increase now is $.03. I am much more comfortable losing the $.03 if I think the value will increase more than that over time. Whether improved play, new surroundings, etc I am more comfortable being patient with a player that I like their skill sets. I don't see Reed or JSN being busts, so I will forego the $.03 and expect more. The other names listed I wasn't as high on and would consider the $.03 upgrade.

[Bronco Billy]

Just to further muddy the waters:

Suppose that you, like me, own 3 of the guys just below the Mendoza line. Each one of those guys has a 13% chance of being a stud and 13% chance of being good. Having 3 guys in that group (with me it’s Reed, Douglas and Wilson) do you sit tight knowing that you’ve got close to a 40% chance (39% actually since they are mutually independent events and are therefore cumulative) that any one of them will become a stud and the same that any one of those 3 will be good, or do you try to parse and sell off one or more of them, hoping you aren’t selling the wrong one(s) while reducing the overall chance that the one(s) you keep end up in the stud/good category?

[tstafford]

As someone that leans BB's way (ie I trust my eyes over statistics or analytics in a bubble) I do think there is a clear trend of people that make trades to "stay ahead of the curve" because the value increase now is $.03. I am much more comfortable losing the $.03 if I think the value will increase more than that over time. Whether improved play, new surroundings, etc I am more comfortable being patient with a player that I like their skill sets. I don't see Reed or JSN being busts, so I will forego the $.03 and expect more. The other names listed I wasn't as high on and would consider the $.03 upgrade.

This tends to be how I look at it too. I'm probably more in tune with ADP data than advanced metrics. I like knowing where the market is differing from my take on players. I try to keep up to some extent on the metrics. But they are secondary to my approach to the game. And when I say this I mean "advanced" metrics not obvious things like receptions, targets, snap share, etc which I stay close to.

[Orenthal Shames]

I'm in agreement with holding JSN, Downs, Reed. I would re-roll Douglas if I could get a 2nd, but I doubt you're getting that. I'd hold for a random third.

[Menace2010]

I'm in agreement with holding JSN, Downs, Reed. I would re-roll Douglas if I could get a 2nd, but I doubt you're getting that. I'd hold for a random third.

I'm actively shopping Douglas for a 2nd. I'm also willing to move Downs cheaper than most in this thread because I don't trust Anthony Richardson to reliable target a player accurately over the middle. JSN and Reed I've seen enough that despite the risks I'm holding tight...

[PigeonBoys]

As someone that leans BB's way (ie I trust my eyes over statistics or analytics in a bubble) I do think there is a clear trend of people that make trades to "stay ahead of the curve" because the value increase now is $.03. I am much more comfortable losing the $.03 if I think the value will increase more than that over time. Whether improved play, new surroundings, etc I am more comfortable being patient with a player that I like their skill sets. I don't see Reed or JSN being busts, so I will forego the $.03 and expect more. The other names listed I wasn't as high on and would consider the $.03 upgrade.

I think a big difference here is/was cost to acquire. JSN was a clear top 5 pick and was "outplayed" performance-wise by Reed, who I got with the 3.11 last year. If I drafted JSN there's no way I'm trading him right now as most of us see that his PT is blocked by two pro bowlers in DK and Lockett (32 I believe this offseason). On the other hand, I sold Reed for a 2025 first earlier this year because he wasn't hitting said thresholds. I have enough WR2/3 talent on my team where Reed wouldn't sniff the field for a few years anyway. I sold Reed because I hit on a late round pick and I would rather have the draft capital, Reed's value could drop through the floor if he doesn't produce next year - a la Jahan Dotson. I also sold Dotson earlier this year, he was worth a first at the time, now he's definitely not. Dotson also looked good but didn't hit those thresholds so I was wary from the beginning of this year.

[BigJoeWall72]

Where do we, if at all, factor injuries into this whole thing?

By my recollection, Downs' tumble down the YPG chart started exactly when he picked up an injury (ankle or knee?) that he has been dealing with since. I thought I read that he would likely have surgery after the season, but I can't find that again in my quick search just now.

Downs was playing really well until that injury...

[wickerkat1212]

I'm holding my shares of JSN (first-round pick) and Downs (third-round pick).

[yinzername]

Sold Douglas and a 2nd for Kittle and a 3rd. Holding Reed