Rookie WR Production 2023

[wickerkat1212]

Good stuff here.

[Orenthal Shames]

This has been one of the better threads I can remember. Just great content fellas. Kudos

[Cameron Giles]

I realize that Reed will likely not hit the desirable threshold. But I have to say, he just looks like a really solid player.

I'm not expecting him to become a WR1, but as a player I was able to draft in the 3rd round, I'll be very pleased if he becomes a consistent WR2 that I can put in my lineup. Too bad it seems he's aggravated the chest injury he's been dealing with in Week 17. It would have been nice to see what he could have done in the 2nd half.

There are a lot of statistical threshold models that foreshadow fantasy success. Just view it as another one to consider. Reed is really good. I wouldn't sell him regardless of how he finishes the season.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I realize that Reed will likely not hit the desirable threshold. But I have to say, he just looks like a really solid player.

I'm not expecting him to become a WR1, but as a player I was able to draft in the 3rd round, I'll be very pleased if he becomes a consistent WR2 that I can put in my lineup. Too bad it seems he's aggravated the chest injury he's been dealing with in Week 17. It would have been nice to see what he could have done in the 2nd half.

There are a lot of statistical threshold models that foreshadow fantasy success. Just view it as another one to consider. Reed is really good. I wouldn't sell him regardless of how he finishes the season.

I get it, but looking back at previous years, you're thanking your lucky stars if just 1 of the players in that ypg range turns into something worthwhile. Right now there's 4-5 players in that range that people are touting (Downs, Douglas, Reed, JSN, Wilson), and they're all saying exactly what you're saying. That they've seen what they needed to see and aren't going to sell. But the most likely scenario, at least in my opinion, is that most of them will be roster cloggers.

[Shoreline Steamers]

I realize that Reed will likely not hit the desirable threshold. But I have to say, he just looks like a really solid player.

I'm not expecting him to become a WR1, but as a player I was able to draft in the 3rd round, I'll be very pleased if he becomes a consistent WR2 that I can put in my lineup. Too bad it seems he's aggravated the chest injury he's been dealing with in Week 17. It would have been nice to see what he could have done in the 2nd half.

There are a lot of statistical threshold models that foreshadow fantasy success. Just view it as another one to consider. Reed is really good. I wouldn't sell him regardless of how he finishes the season.

I get it, but looking back at previous years, you're thanking your lucky stars if just 1 of the players in that ypg range turns into something worthwhile. Right now there's 4-5 players in that range that people are touting (Downs, Douglas, Reed, JSN, Wilson), and they're all saying exactly what you're saying. That they've seen what they needed to see and aren't going to sell. But the most likely scenario, at least in my opinion, is that most of them will be roster cloggers.

I guess that's why I phrased it the way I did DD. I would have loved Reed to get the necessary YGP to move into the next tier, allowing the model to render him likely headed for success. But if I had drafted JSN, Reed, or Downs from that group, I'd probably be holding in hopes that they developed into something useful if the best I could get was a 2nd rounder to move on.

You might end up with a roster clogger, but as we know, even your average 2nd-round rookie pick is a low percentage shot. Might as well ride a player who appears to have a chance of being a useful asset than reloading for whatever is available at that point in the 2024 draft.

Win some, lose some. But with regard the players I listed, I'd rate them holds rather than sells. If two of those three aren't roster cloggers by 2025, I'd count that a win from my perspective.

[Anteaters]

This has been one of the better threads I can remember. Just great content fellas. Kudos

++

[tstafford]

There are a lot of statistical threshold models that foreshadow fantasy success. Just view it as another one to consider. Reed is really good. I wouldn't sell him regardless of how he finishes the season.

I get it, but looking back at previous years, you're thanking your lucky stars if just 1 of the players in that ypg range turns into something worthwhile. Right now there's 4-5 players in that range that people are touting (Downs, Douglas, Reed, JSN, Wilson), and they're all saying exactly what you're saying. That they've seen what they needed to see and aren't going to sell. But the most likely scenario, at least in my opinion, is that most of them will be roster cloggers.

I guess that's why I phrased it the way I did DD. I would have loved Reed to get the necessary YGP to move into the next tier, allowing the model to render him likely headed for success. But if I had drafted JSN, Reed, or Downs from that group, I'd probably be holding in hopes that they developed into something useful if the best I could get was a 2nd rounder to move on.

You might end up with a roster clogger, but as we know, even your average 2nd-round rookie pick is a low percentage shot. Might as well ride a player who appears to have a chance of being a useful asset than reloading for whatever is available at that point in the 2024 draft.

Win some, lose some. But with regard the players I listed, I'd rate them holds rather than sells. If two of those three aren't roster cloggers by 2025, I'd count that a win from my perspective.

From a decidedly less statistical perspective, these guys seem like holds (for different reasons) to me as well:
JSN - you're not recouping your investment. JSN would (IMO) be a sell low right now. This situation is going to change and he showed signs of life down the stretch. He actually might be a buy (vs. a hold).
Downs/Douglas - I don't hold out as much hope as others. But they will both get new QBs next season. They shown the can earn snaps and targets in the NFL. I'd rather chance it on them than a late 2nd. Sort of the dictionary definition of "hold"
Reed - Looks good to me. Not sure what more people really needed to see. And it's not like it came out of nowhere. The primary reason to knock Reed was the WR group looked kind of clogged up at the start of the season. Much has changed and the cream rises to the top.

Anyway I think it's important to layer on some situational narrative on these stats. A change in QB and OC for example could alter the trajectory of a some of these players. And there's reason to expect such changes for a few of them.

[TheTroll]

I get it, but looking back at previous years, you're thanking your lucky stars if just 1 of the players in that ypg range turns into something worthwhile. Right now there's 4-5 players in that range that people are touting (Downs, Douglas, Reed, JSN, Wilson), and they're all saying exactly what you're saying. That they've seen what they needed to see and aren't going to sell. But the most likely scenario, at least in my opinion, is that most of them will be roster cloggers.

I guess that's why I phrased it the way I did DD. I would have loved Reed to get the necessary YGP to move into the next tier, allowing the model to render him likely headed for success. But if I had drafted JSN, Reed, or Downs from that group, I'd probably be holding in hopes that they developed into something useful if the best I could get was a 2nd rounder to move on.

You might end up with a roster clogger, but as we know, even your average 2nd-round rookie pick is a low percentage shot. Might as well ride a player who appears to have a chance of being a useful asset than reloading for whatever is available at that point in the 2024 draft.

Win some, lose some. But with regard the players I listed, I'd rate them holds rather than sells. If two of those three aren't roster cloggers by 2025, I'd count that a win from my perspective.

From a decidedly less statistical perspective, these guys seem like holds (for different reasons) to me as well:
JSN - you're not recouping your investment. JSN would (IMO) be a sell low right now. This situation is going to change and he showed signs of life down the stretch. He actually might be a buy (vs. a hold).
Downs/Douglas - I don't hold out as much hope as others. But they will both get new QBs next season. They shown the can earn snaps and targets in the NFL. I'd rather chance it on them than a late 2nd. Sort of the dictionary definition of "hold"
Reed - Looks good to me. Not sure what more people really needed to see. And it's not like it came out of nowhere. The primary reason to knock Reed was the WR group looked kind of clogged up at the start of the season. Much has changed and the cream rises to the top.

Anyway I think it's important to layer on some situational narrative on these stats. A change in QB and OC for example could alter the trajectory of a some of these players. And there's reason to expect such changes for a few of them.

<non-statistical thumbs up> I agree with this for sure. this is a very realistic outlook on these guys. I would definitely say though that JSN is a clear Buy now piece. You are not going to get him any cheaper than right now. The issue is the seller will want to try and get close to his 2023 draft capital back (to save face) so making a deal is going to be harder than normal.

[Multiple Scorgasms]

Rice now leads the league in YAC.

His ratio of YAC:yards is ridiculous. As good as he is after the catch and in space, hopefully they feature him on more routes next year.

[Cameron Giles]

I get it, but looking back at previous years, you're thanking your lucky stars if just 1 of the players in that ypg range turns into something worthwhile. Right now there's 4-5 players in that range that people are touting (Downs, Douglas, Reed, JSN, Wilson), and they're all saying exactly what you're saying. That they've seen what they needed to see and aren't going to sell. But the most likely scenario, at least in my opinion, is that most of them will be roster cloggers.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying all of those players are going to be really good for a long time. But, there's a clear difference in watching Reed, Downs, and JSN for me. Those 3 would be the players I'm not looking to re-roll on for another rookie unless there's a clear win in a deal. Otherwise, you're drafting another rookie and hoping they do better than:

Downs: 65/723/2
Reed: 60/681/8
JSN: 60/614/4

...in their first year. The likelihood of that is not exactly high. I think there's value in these thresholds, but one game deciding whether a player moves up a tier or not wouldn't shift my perception of them as much as a player staying in an undesirable tier for the majority of the season.

[Bronco Billy]

I realize that Reed will likely not hit the desirable threshold. But I have to say, he just looks like a really solid player.

I'm not expecting him to become a WR1, but as a player I was able to draft in the 3rd round, I'll be very pleased if he becomes a consistent WR2 that I can put in my lineup. Too bad it seems he's aggravated the chest injury he's been dealing with in Week 17. It would have been nice to see what he could have done in the 2nd half.

There are a lot of statistical threshold models that foreshadow fantasy success. Just view it as another one to consider. Reed is really good. I wouldn't sell him regardless of how he finishes the season.

I get it, but looking back at previous years, you're thanking your lucky stars if just 1 of the players in that ypg range turns into something worthwhile. Right now there's 4-5 players in that range that people are touting (Downs, Douglas, Reed, JSN, Wilson), and they're all saying exactly what you're saying. That they've seen what they needed to see and aren't going to sell. But the most likely scenario, at least in my opinion, is that most of them will be roster cloggers.

And this year could just as easily be the anomaly. If you are a slave to these statistics you could very well be selling off an important piece of future success and enhancing your opponents - for what, a ticket in a future lottery? I don’t know about your leagues, but in mine consistent WR2s and WR3s are valuable assets.

[Jigga94]

Rice now leads the league in YAC.

His ratio of YAC:yards is ridiculous. As good as he is after the catch and in space, hopefully they feature him on more routes next year.

Needs to work on route running. I like his abilities though and he's in a great spot to succeed with KC having no weapons aside from an aging Kelce. I think Rice has had a few extended plays that look similar to what Mahomes and Kelce do. Not saying he will fill that role, but it's encouraging to see

[Jigga94]

Also agree that JSN, Reed and Downs are the obvious holds. Wilson and Douglas not so much, but I guarantee their prices also reflect this

[Dynasty DeLorean]

There are a lot of statistical threshold models that foreshadow fantasy success. Just view it as another one to consider. Reed is really good. I wouldn't sell him regardless of how he finishes the season.

I get it, but looking back at previous years, you're thanking your lucky stars if just 1 of the players in that ypg range turns into something worthwhile. Right now there's 4-5 players in that range that people are touting (Downs, Douglas, Reed, JSN, Wilson), and they're all saying exactly what you're saying. That they've seen what they needed to see and aren't going to sell. But the most likely scenario, at least in my opinion, is that most of them will be roster cloggers.

And this year could just as easily be the anomaly. If you are a slave to these statistics you could very well be selling off an important piece of future success and enhancing your opponents - for what, a ticket in a future lottery? I don’t know about your leagues, but in mine consistent WR2s and WR3s are valuable assets.

Yeah, like I said I get it, and that could be the case, but my point was that people say what you’re saying right now every year. In general it’s not going to work out. That’s all I’m saying. And I’m not saying to just give them away either, you ideally would be getting same or even better odds back in return via trade. I’m a big proponent of the “multiple shots” strategy, so I agree, doing a 1 for 1 trade for a potentially late 2nd, or whatever the case may be, is not extremely enticing. But can you get multiple shots, 2 2nds, or a 2nd and a player. There’s probably people out there that still value JSN over a guy like Flowers. Can you trade JSN for Flowers, or even Flowers +. These are the types of deals that WILL improve your roster. Obviously the deal and price depends on which player you’re trying to move.

[Cameron Giles]

I get it, but looking back at previous years, you're thanking your lucky stars if just 1 of the players in that ypg range turns into something worthwhile. Right now there's 4-5 players in that range that people are touting (Downs, Douglas, Reed, JSN, Wilson), and they're all saying exactly what you're saying. That they've seen what they needed to see and aren't going to sell. But the most likely scenario, at least in my opinion, is that most of them will be roster cloggers.

And this year could just as easily be the anomaly. If you are a slave to these statistics you could very well be selling off an important piece of future success and enhancing your opponents - for what, a ticket in a future lottery? I don’t know about your leagues, but in mine consistent WR2s and WR3s are valuable assets.

Yeah, like I said I get it, and that could be the case, but my point was that people say what you’re saying right now every year. In general it’s not going to work out. That’s all I’m saying. And I’m not saying to just give them away either, you ideally would be getting same or even better odds back in return via trade.

If you were moving Reed right now in terms of rookie picks, what would be the most realistic deal to match what you're saying?