Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[TheTroll]

I think the point is that people with the 1.01 could likely trade back 1 spot and make a nice profit (due to the Marvin hype) and still get a similar talent.

That would require people to believe Harrison and Nabers are similar (they're not), and that there are a fair amount of leagues where the 1.02 owner will pay a ridiculously high price to move up one spot.

Go back to last year for example. How many times did someone with the 1.01 trade out of Bijan for a haul to take Gibbs?

I think this exact scenario is what is going to make people actually pull the trigger this time. People were fearful Gibbs couldn't shoulder the load so were hesitant to drop down. Now you realize that maybe the prized pig isn't as great as the runner up and then some so why not branch it out. Personally I wish I had the 1.1, but I'm happy with the 1.2. And I'm not paying the difference.

Hype, “to promote or publicize (a product or idea) intensively, often exaggerating its importance or benefits.”

Just like Bijan last year. I fell for that and it helped cost me a playoff spot.

[Cameron Giles]

I think the point is that people with the 1.01 could likely trade back 1 spot and make a nice profit (due to the Marvin hype) and still get a similar talent.

That would require people to believe Harrison and Nabers are similar (they're not), and that there are a fair amount of leagues where the 1.02 owner will pay a ridiculously high price to move up one spot.

Go back to last year for example. How many times did someone with the 1.01 trade out of Bijan for a haul to take Gibbs?

I think this exact scenario is what is going to make people actually pull the trigger this time. People were fearful Gibbs couldn't shoulder the load so were hesitant to drop down. Now you realize that maybe the prized pig isn't as great as the runner up and then some so why not branch it out. Personally I wish I had the 1.1, but I'm happy with the 1.2. And I'm not paying the difference.

I think the overwhelming majority of people with the 1.02 feel the same way.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Yup, after trading up from the 1.02 to the 1.01 for Bijan (instead of just drafting Gibbs), I’m staying put this year, unless things change after I watch some film.

[BabyChark23]

Whether someone thinks Nabers is transcendent or not, he's still going to go behind the player who everyone unanimously agrees is an all-time great prospect.

Unless someone is actually arguing that you should select Nabers over Harrison, then what's the point of this?

I think the point is that people with the 1.01 could likely trade back 1 spot and make a nice profit (due to the Marvin hype) and still get a similar talent.

That would require people to believe Harrison and Nabers are similar (they're not), and that there are a fair amount of leagues where the 1.02 owner will pay a ridiculously high price to move up one spot.

Go back to last year for example. How many times did someone with the 1.01 trade out of Bijan for a haul to take Gibbs?

I saw 1.01 owners trade back for Gibbs in a couple places. It’s not a “you can do this every where” thing, but makes sense where you can get it done.

It wouldn’t take “a ridiculously high price” for me to move from the Harrison pick to the Nabers pick. It seems like you see a massive difference between the two. I do not.

[Bronco Billy]

Hype, “to promote or publicize (a product or idea) intensively, often exaggerating its importance or benefits.”

Just like Bijan last year. I fell for that and it helped cost me a playoff spot.

Awfully early to shovel dirt on Bijan. Gibbs profited from an OC with some dynamic vision where Bijan was saddled with a HC who has proven he has no intention of modifying his system to optimize his best players.

Bijan is still a better RB than Gibbs, maybe a lot better.

[mild]

Whether someone thinks Nabers is transcendent or not, he's still going to go behind the player who everyone unanimously agrees is an all-time great prospect.

Unless someone is actually arguing that you should select Nabers over Harrison, then what's the point of this?

The point is to throw his league mates off the scent.

The good news is, once someone outright tells you that they don't even believe their own posts, you can just skip all of them. Which is good, because it saves time, and helps you cut through the noise around here.

The old unreliable narrator syndrome... it's a slippery slope. By outright telling us his posts are of questionable truth, he calls into question anything he's ever said... so if he doesn't even believe his own posts, then why should we even read them...?

Happy Holidays to the DLF Forum

[FantasyFreak]

You’re falling into the trap that one just has to be better than the other, so you have to advocate one at the expense of the other. That’s a fallacy.

Or he's just gaming his league mates as he has said several times. It's impossible to take what he's saying at face value because it could (as he has said) just be a ruse.

Yeah, but he wouldn’t do that to us, would he?

Nah, I'm more doing it for a joke to my league mates. I'm serious about my assessment........or am I?

[Forza_Azzurri]

Hype, “to promote or publicize (a product or idea) intensively, often exaggerating its importance or benefits.”

Just like Bijan last year. I fell for that and it helped cost me a playoff spot.

Awfully early to shovel dirt on Bijan. Gibbs profited from an OC with some dynamic vision where Bijan was saddled with a HC who has proven he has no intention of modifying his system to optimize his best players.

Bijan is still a better RB than Gibbs, maybe a lot better.

Whatever talent gap there is between Gibbs & Bijan is likely to be eclipsed by another year or two with Smith & no QB. At this point, I wouldn’t trade Gibbs straight up for Bijan unless Smith was fired.

[FantasyFreak]

Hype, “to promote or publicize (a product or idea) intensively, often exaggerating its importance or benefits.”

Just like Bijan last year. I fell for that and it helped cost me a playoff spot.

Awfully early to shovel dirt on Bijan. Gibbs profited from an OC with some dynamic vision where Bijan was saddled with a HC who has proven he has no intention of modifying his system to optimize his best players.

Bijan is still a better RB than Gibbs, maybe a lot better.

Whatever talent gap there is between Gibbs & Bijan is likely to be eclipsed by another year or two with Smith & no QB. At this point, I wouldn’t trade Gibbs straight up for Bijan unless Smith was fired.

I think the only chance to get Bijan for Gibbs would be while Smith is still there.

[Shcritters]

Instead of the mind games… which are fun, but probably not valuable to many…

What would it take for you to trade out of the 1.01? I’ve got it in 2 different leagues… one where my other QB is Purdy - so need a other QB - and one where I also have everything but the 1.02, 1.03, 1.04 and ones late 1st.

I’d love to trade back a couple spots and get an early 1st the following year… too little of a payback?

[tstafford]

Instead of the mind games… which are fun, but probably not valuable to many…

What would it take for you to trade out of the 1.01? I’ve got it in 2 different leagues… one where my other QB is Purdy - so need a other QB - and one where I also have everything but the 1.02, 1.03, 1.04 and ones late 1st.

I’d love to trade back a couple spots and get an early 1st the following year… too little of a payback?

I think it's too early to answer this question with any clarity. I'm not trading out of the 1.01 under any circumstances until MHJR declares. The value calculations change quite a bit on that decision. Whether or not you buy in to the notion that Nabers is as good as (or better than) MHJR doesn't change that most people don't see it that way. The value of the 1.02 will be closer to the 1.01 if MHJR is in the mix. Need to wait and see what happens.

[Sriracha]

Instead of the mind games… which are fun, but probably not valuable to many…

What would it take for you to trade out of the 1.01? I’ve got it in 2 different leagues… one where my other QB is Purdy - so need a other QB - and one where I also have everything but the 1.02, 1.03, 1.04 and ones late 1st.

I’d love to trade back a couple spots and get an early 1st the following year… too little of a payback?

I think it's too early to answer this question with any clarity. I'm not trading out of the 1.01 under any circumstances until MHJR declares. The value calculations change quite a bit on that decision. Whether or not you buy in to the notion that Nabers is as good as (or better than) MHJR doesn't change that most people don't see it that way. The value of the 1.02 will be closer to the 1.01 if MHJR is in the mix. Need to wait and see what happens.

People may be getting over their skii's with the MHJ hype.

I'm a believer in his talent but we don't have a landing spot for him, yet. Plenty of elite WRs have mired into very good but not elite production due to QB play. His best comparable player might be AJ Green who never really hit his ceiling due to having Andy Dalton as his QB for most of his career.

No one is going to be complaining about MHJ if he puts up AJ Green's career... but if you trade up for him paying similar prices to Chase, Jefferson that might not be the best ROI

If ARZ decides to go O-line and he falls to WSH for instance while Nabers, Odunze, Coleman end up with the Bears tied to Caleb Williams you're going to see a lot of people not have a consensus 1.01 in non SF

[DJB]

I’ve been on the Nabers train all season long. I honestly can’t decide if I like him or Harrison as the 1.01

Both are elite

[MacDaddy123]

I did not trade the 1.01 in any of the leagues that I have had them.
I had 3 shares of 1.01 and drafted Bijan all 3 times.
However, I did trade Bijan away in 2 of my 3 leagues before week 1.

In one league I traded away Bijan + 2024 2.01 for Gibbs + 2024 1.04. 12 team SF TEP.
In another league I traded away Bijan for Achane plus late 24 1st (1.09 or 1.10) and early 2025 1st (90% chance of being top 5 pick.
Also in a 12 team SF TEP league.

IMO, the difference between Bijan and Gibbs last year was greater than the difference between MHJ and Nabers this year.
That is only rating them as prospects.
Obviously Gibbs value has risen while Bijan's value has taken a dip during the 2023 season.

[Finfansteve]

I have 1.01 in the league in my sig below but I also have 1.04 and most likely 1.10 I’m pondering trading those two picks for 1.02 if possible but I’m going to wait until combine season to determine if I should attempt that move or not but I’m thinking it could be worth it as of right now