Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[Mike11]

I really think there won’t be a debate that tier 1 is MHJ and Williams in some order. After that it’ll likely be Maye, Daniels, Nabers in some order. I think regardless of landing spot you’ll see these five in some order every time. After that it’s gonna get interesting. You’ll see Bowers, Odunze depending on premium and someone else is gonna sneak into that tier, possibly Egbuka or one of these other receivers a team falls in love with and goes top 20-25.

[Sriracha]

Elite players don’t need excuses. They just perform.

Unfortunately, it's not that simple when your overall football team regresses significantly in several key areas.

Still, he was 11th in QBR this year. It's not like he stunk. USC needed more hero ball from him to make up for what they were losing everywhere else and it just wasn't going to work against more talented and structured teams.

Through the last 7 games? I don’t think so. I guess that will happen when he’s hanging 5 TDs on Nevada or 6TDs on Colorado. Not so much against a team that puts even a mediocre D on the field.

The talent divide in college football is immense.. this narrative that good QBs "just perform" is pure idealism.

USC had the 105th ranked defense and their top offensive prospect is a borderline 3rd rounder in Rice while playing in the strongest conference in CFB this year.

Patrick Mahomes had a losing record his entire college career.

[Bronco Billy]

Unfortunately, it's not that simple when your overall football team regresses significantly in several key areas.

Still, he was 11th in QBR this year. It's not like he stunk. USC needed more hero ball from him to make up for what they were losing everywhere else and it just wasn't going to work against more talented and structured teams.

Through the last 7 games? I don’t think so. I guess that will happen when he’s hanging 5 TDs on Nevada or 6TDs on Colorado. Not so much against a team that puts even a mediocre D on the field.

The talent divide in college football is immense.. this narrative that good QBs "just perform" is pure idealism.

USC had the 105th ranked defense and their top offensive prospect is a borderline 3rd rounder in Rice while playing in the strongest conference in CFB this year.

Patrick Mahomes had a losing record his entire college career.

I’m curious to know if you even thought to check Mahomes’ performances before you posted this comparison or if you just threw it out there as though it was going to be remotely comparable? And that was with a Texas Tech team that was badly outmanned by some of those opponents.

[FantasyFreak]

I really think there won’t be a debate that tier 1 is MHJ and Williams in some order. After that it’ll likely be Maye, Daniels, Nabers in some order. I think regardless of landing spot you’ll see these five in some order every time. After that it’s gonna get interesting. You’ll see Bowers, Odunze depending on premium and someone else is gonna sneak into that tier, possibly Egbuka or one of these other receivers a team falls in love with and goes top 20-25.

Nabers is in MHJ's tier. I actually think he's the better player, right now.

[nathanq42]

I don't know the situation regarding USC/Williams, I don't even know the guy's stats or what makes him so good. But its a 53 person roster and 10 other guys from the team on any given play, there is only so much one guy can do given the pieces he has to utilize. I never understood when people would use team wins/losses/championships as a data point for how good a player is in any discussion (Kobe vs Lebron vs MJ, Brady vs Manning vs Marino, etc).

[Cameron Giles]

I don't know the situation regarding USC/Williams, I don't even know the guy's stats or what makes him so good. But its a 53 person roster and 10 other guys from the team on any given play, there is only so much one guy can do given the pieces he has to utilize. I never understood when people would use team wins/losses/championships as a data point for how good a player is in any discussion (Kobe vs Lebron vs MJ, Brady vs Manning vs Marino, etc).

I get it with different sports.

Football, a QB by far has the most impact, but even in the NFL they can't make up for losses in multiple areas of the game. USC was simply a mediocre team this year. No amount of elite QB play would've changed that. There are flaws you can take away from his game, but not being able to turn a mediocre college team into a title contender is not one of them.

[FantasyFreak]

I didn't realize Caleb will be 23 in season next year. How is that possible when he's a junior?

[j4pac]

I really think there won’t be a debate that tier 1 is MHJ and Williams in some order. After that it’ll likely be Maye, Daniels, Nabers in some order. I think regardless of landing spot you’ll see these five in some order every time. After that it’s gonna get interesting. You’ll see Bowers, Odunze depending on premium and someone else is gonna sneak into that tier, possibly Egbuka or one of these other receivers a team falls in love with and goes top 20-25.

Nabers is in MHJ's tier. I actually think he's the better player, right now.

Pedigree is real.

[Sriracha]

Through the last 7 games? I don’t think so. I guess that will happen when he’s hanging 5 TDs on Nevada or 6TDs on Colorado. Not so much against a team that puts even a mediocre D on the field.

The talent divide in college football is immense.. this narrative that good QBs "just perform" is pure idealism.

USC had the 105th ranked defense and their top offensive prospect is a borderline 3rd rounder in Rice while playing in the strongest conference in CFB this year.

Patrick Mahomes had a losing record his entire college career.

I’m curious to know if you even thought to check Mahomes’ performances before you posted this comparison or if you just threw it out there as though it was going to be remotely comparable? And that was with a Texas Tech team that was badly outmanned by some of those opponents.

Mahomes similarly beat up on bad defenses and struggled vs top defenses in college.. he just played in the big 12 that doesn't play defense.

What I'm telling you is that USC was overmatched in many of these games, as well... which is something a lot of people have a tough time grasping because of their name brand.

[mild]

Mahomes similarly beat up on bad defenses and struggled vs top defenses in college.. he just played in the big 12 that doesn't play defense.

What I'm telling you is that USC was overmatched in many of these games, as well... which is something a lot of people have a tough time grasping because of their name brand.

I'm hearing what you're saying, even if the Bronco is not.

To do a holistic write-off statement like "Elite players don’t need excuses. They just perform." for college QB's is way too simpleton of a take imo. College QB evals just aren't that cut-and-dry - Josh Allen, Lamar, Herbert, Jalen Hurts... all guys that had incredible ability and traits, but were knocked for various reasons. Josh Allen? Turns out he was an elite player. Needed a lot of excuses to get there.

Mahomes wasn't even thought of as elite in college. He was widely considered at best the QB2 in his own class, and as we know, was drafted as the 3rd QB overall. He was labeled a gunslinger, and his team success was brought into question - even though the tape revealed a lot of the intangibles that had the markings of elite play that would one day translate. He also wasn't a finished product.

Kinda like Caleb.

You'd have missed on Mahomes if you wrote his team success off as an indictment of his skills and abilities.

Likewise, you're probably doing the same thing with Caleb by judging him on the things he couldn't control.

The throws are the throws. That sh-- is gonna work. The fact we're down to splitting hairs on him because he paints his nails just says to me that we probably all need to go touch grass... it's prospect fatigue to the 9's.

[CGW]

Mahomes similarly beat up on bad defenses and struggled vs top defenses in college.. he just played in the big 12 that doesn't play defense.

What I'm telling you is that USC was overmatched in many of these games, as well... which is something a lot of people have a tough time grasping because of their name brand.

I'm hearing what you're saying, even if the Bronco is not.

To do a holistic write-off statement like "Elite players don’t need excuses. They just perform." for college QB's is way too simpleton of a take imo. College QB evals just aren't that cut-and-dry - Josh Allen, Lamar, Herbert, Jalen Hurts... all guys that had incredible ability and traits, but were knocked for various reasons. Josh Allen? Turns out he was an elite player. Needed a lot of excuses to get there.

Mahomes wasn't even thought of as elite in college. He was widely considered at best the QB2 in his own class, and as we know, was drafted as the 3rd QB overall. He was labeled a gunslinger, and his team success was brought into question - even though the tape revealed a lot of the intangibles that had the markings of elite play that would one day translate. He also wasn't a finished product.

Kinda like Caleb.

You'd have missed on Mahomes if you wrote his team success off as an indictment of his skills and abilities.

Likewise, you're probably doing the same thing with Caleb by judging him on the things he couldn't control.

The throws are the throws. That sh-- is gonna work. The fact we're down to splitting hairs on him because he paints his nails just says to me that we probably all need to go touch grass... it's prospect fatigue to the 9's.

In the words of the great Wickercat, "Yep."

[wickerkat1212]

Mahomes similarly beat up on bad defenses and struggled vs top defenses in college.. he just played in the big 12 that doesn't play defense.

What I'm telling you is that USC was overmatched in many of these games, as well... which is something a lot of people have a tough time grasping because of their name brand.

I'm hearing what you're saying, even if the Bronco is not.

To do a holistic write-off statement like "Elite players don’t need excuses. They just perform." for college QB's is way too simpleton of a take imo. College QB evals just aren't that cut-and-dry - Josh Allen, Lamar, Herbert, Jalen Hurts... all guys that had incredible ability and traits, but were knocked for various reasons. Josh Allen? Turns out he was an elite player. Needed a lot of excuses to get there.

Mahomes wasn't even thought of as elite in college. He was widely considered at best the QB2 in his own class, and as we know, was drafted as the 3rd QB overall. He was labeled a gunslinger, and his team success was brought into question - even though the tape revealed a lot of the intangibles that had the markings of elite play that would one day translate. He also wasn't a finished product.

Kinda like Caleb.

You'd have missed on Mahomes if you wrote his team success off as an indictment of his skills and abilities.

Likewise, you're probably doing the same thing with Caleb by judging him on the things he couldn't control.

The throws are the throws. That sh-- is gonna work. The fact we're down to splitting hairs on him because he paints his nails just says to me that we probably all need to go touch grass... it's prospect fatigue to the 9's.

In the words of the great Wickercat, "Yep."

LOL, damn, brother. Happy Holidays. And that's Wickerkat with TWO ks. Sometimes a confirmation of a post just shows a consensus across a board. I don't always have anything to add. Though I hope you're enjoying your DJM shares.

[FantasyFreak]

Mahomes similarly beat up on bad defenses and struggled vs top defenses in college.. he just played in the big 12 that doesn't play defense.

What I'm telling you is that USC was overmatched in many of these games, as well... which is something a lot of people have a tough time grasping because of their name brand.

I'm hearing what you're saying, even if the Bronco is not.

To do a holistic write-off statement like "Elite players don’t need excuses. They just perform." for college QB's is way too simpleton of a take imo. College QB evals just aren't that cut-and-dry - Josh Allen, Lamar, Herbert, Jalen Hurts... all guys that had incredible ability and traits, but were knocked for various reasons. Josh Allen? Turns out he was an elite player. Needed a lot of excuses to get there.

Mahomes wasn't even thought of as elite in college. He was widely considered at best the QB2 in his own class, and as we know, was drafted as the 3rd QB overall. He was labeled a gunslinger, and his team success was brought into question - even though the tape revealed a lot of the intangibles that had the markings of elite play that would one day translate. He also wasn't a finished product.

Kinda like Caleb.

You'd have missed on Mahomes if you wrote his team success off as an indictment of his skills and abilities.

Likewise, you're probably doing the same thing with Caleb by judging him on the things he couldn't control.

The throws are the throws. That sh-- is gonna work. The fact we're down to splitting hairs on him because he paints his nails just says to me that we probably all need to go touch grass... it's prospect fatigue to the 9's.

Mahomes went to an ideal situation with a great OC coach, who sat him for a year, too. Caleb likely won't, and will play day 1.

[CGW]

I'm hearing what you're saying, even if the Bronco is not.

To do a holistic write-off statement like "Elite players don’t need excuses. They just perform." for college QB's is way too simpleton of a take imo. College QB evals just aren't that cut-and-dry - Josh Allen, Lamar, Herbert, Jalen Hurts... all guys that had incredible ability and traits, but were knocked for various reasons. Josh Allen? Turns out he was an elite player. Needed a lot of excuses to get there.

Mahomes wasn't even thought of as elite in college. He was widely considered at best the QB2 in his own class, and as we know, was drafted as the 3rd QB overall. He was labeled a gunslinger, and his team success was brought into question - even though the tape revealed a lot of the intangibles that had the markings of elite play that would one day translate. He also wasn't a finished product.

Kinda like Caleb.

You'd have missed on Mahomes if you wrote his team success off as an indictment of his skills and abilities.

Likewise, you're probably doing the same thing with Caleb by judging him on the things he couldn't control.

The throws are the throws. That sh-- is gonna work. The fact we're down to splitting hairs on him because he paints his nails just says to me that we probably all need to go touch grass... it's prospect fatigue to the 9's.

In the words of the great Wickercat, "Yep."

LOL, damn, brother. Happy Holidays. And that's Wickerkat with TWO ks. Sometimes a confirmation of a post just shows a consensus across a board. I don't always have anything to add. Though I hope you're enjoying your DJM shares.

No offense meant Mr WickerKat. And you got me there, I sold him off for Garrett Wilson. Jury is still out, but DJM having himself a darn nice season.

[Sriracha]

Mahomes went to an ideal situation with a great OC coach, who sat him for a year, too. Caleb likely won't, and will play day 1.

Caleb is also much further along in his development curve than Mahomes was entering the league.

Now, I think it's crazy to assume he's going to match what Mahomes has done in the NFL; Where he entered an offense that elevated Alex Smith to MVP talks and a top 5 fantasy season the year prior and was paired up with one of the greatest offensive minds in NFL history and has obviously taken massive strides forward since his time at TTU.

But I also don't think the Bears are nearly as bad of a situation as Fields has made them look up to this point. DJM is playing like a top 10 WR, they have a strong running game and a defense playing at a top 5 level to close out the year. That's a luxury that most rookie QBs do not get and I think any Bears fan that thinks Caleb doesn't instantly elevate this offense in a way that Fields has not is kidding themselves.