Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

Postby MacDaddy123 » Thu Dec 21, 2023 5:47 pm

wickerkat1212 wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 3:09 pm Is there anybody in here who thinks Caleb Williams will be a bust?
Is there anybody in here who thinks Maye is better than Williams?
Is there anybody in here who thinks Daniels is better than Williams?

Just curious. I have the 1.02 and want Harrison there.
All player have bust potential, including Caleb.

In my leagues, MHJ will be the 1.01, I think because most people feel that he is the least likely to bust.

Also because in my leagues the teams with the better QB rooms tend to have the highest draft picks too.
Teams with the weakest QB rooms will have the late 1st round picks.

I have five 1sts, 1.01, 1.04, 1.06, 1.07/1.08 TBD in week 16, and the projected 1.12.
I plan on taking MHJ at 1.01, Malik Nabers at 1.04, either Bowers or Daniels at 1.06, Odunze or Frnaklin at 1.07/1.08, and BPA at whatever the last pick turns out to be.

My current QB room is: Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Watson, Kenny Pickett, Zach Wilson, Josh Dobbs.

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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

Postby wickerkat1212 » Thu Dec 21, 2023 5:49 pm

MacDaddy123 wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 5:47 pm
wickerkat1212 wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 3:09 pm Is there anybody in here who thinks Caleb Williams will be a bust?
Is there anybody in here who thinks Maye is better than Williams?
Is there anybody in here who thinks Daniels is better than Williams?

Just curious. I have the 1.02 and want Harrison there.
All player have bust potential, including Caleb.

In my leagues, MHJ will be the 1.01, I think because most people feel that he is the least likely to bust.

Also because in my leagues the teams with the better QB rooms tend to have the highest draft picks too.
Teams with the weakest QB rooms will have the late 1st round picks.

I have five 1sts, 1.01, 1.04, 1.06, 1.07/1.08 TBD in week 16, and the projected 1.12.
I plan on taking MHJ at 1.01, Malik Nabers at 1.04, either Bowers or Daniels at 1.06, Odunze or Frnaklin at 1.07/1.08, and BPA at whatever the last pick turns out to be.

My current QB room is: Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Watson, Kenny Pickett, Zach Wilson, Josh Dobbs.
Good stuff here.
D3:
QB—Allen, Pickett RB—Kamara, Jacobs, ZWhite, Edwards, Ford, Warren WR—Lamb, Olave, DJM, Puka, Tillman, Marshall, Jefferson, Robinson, Tucker TE—Ferguson, Schoon, Likely, Smith, Washington, Kraft PK—Prater DEF—BAL

D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC, Hall RB—Bijan, Kamara, Conner, BENSON (R), Gainwell, Gainwell, Foreman, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin WR—Jefferson, Hill, Adams, Allen, POLK (R), CORLEY (R), COWING (R), Tillman, Woods TE—Kelce, Kmet, TJOHNSON (R), Conklin PK—Butker DEF—PIT

Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield, RATTLER (R) RB—Bijan, Kamara, Allgeier, Mostert, BRob, ESTIME (R) WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, MBrown, Lockett, Myers, COWING (R), MWASHINGTON (R) TE—Kmet, Kraft, SANDERS (R), Conklin, Hurst PK—Elliott DEF—PHI

Superflex 2:
QB: MAYE (R), Goff, Cousins, PENIX (R), Wentz, White; RB: Bijan, BRob, ZWhite, Allgeier, McLaughlin WR: HARRISON (R), DJM, Higgins, JSN, BTHOMAS (R), Downs, RMoore, Atwell, SMoore, DPJ, Devante TE: Ferguson, Kraft, Trautman, Tremble

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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:17 pm

There is a chance that Maye or Daniels are better than Williams. Not a strong chance, but a chance. Williams isn't without flaws, but I still maintain there's some overthinking with his game this season. The NCAA and NFL have told us he's going to be the #1 pick for three years now and that's boring, though it still tells us a ton about the prospect.

Williams will go 1.01 in the overwhelming majority of 2QB drafts. His floor is absurdly high. It's difficult to imagine him being a bust. Whether his career will be as great as he is a prospect is tough to say. Even Trevor Lawrence is very good, but not quite what his hype suggested....yet.

If you're hoping for Harrison at 1.02, I think you're in the clear. And if you aren't, I guess you'll have to settle for an all-time great QB prospect. Unfortunate.

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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

Postby j4pac » Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:29 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:17 pm There is a chance that Maye or Daniels are better than Williams. Not a strong chance, but a chance. Williams isn't without flaws, but I still maintain there's some overthinking with his game this season. The NCAA and NFL have told us he's going to be the #1 pick for three years now and that's boring, though it still tells us a ton about the prospect.

Williams will go 1.01 in the overwhelming majority of 2QB drafts. His floor is absurdly high. It's difficult to imagine him being a bust. Whether his career will be as great as he is a prospect is tough to say. Even Trevor Lawrence is very good, but not quite what his hype suggested....yet.

If you're hoping for Harrison at 1.02, I think you're in the clear. And if you aren't, I guess you'll have to settle for an all-time great QB prospect. Unfortunate.
His personality is a lot more concerning than Lawrence. His floor is lower.
SF, PPR, 12 team, 12 player dynasty

QB- Lawrence, Fields, Tannehill (max 2 keepers, 3 rostered)
RB- Bijan Robinson, T Pollard, Allgeier, Charbonnet, Achane, J Wilson, Kelley, K Williams
WR- Lamb, Jeudy, Hill, C Olave, A Pierce, Shaheed, Bourne
TE- Goedert, Musgrave

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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:48 pm

j4pac wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:29 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:17 pm There is a chance that Maye or Daniels are better than Williams. Not a strong chance, but a chance. Williams isn't without flaws, but I still maintain there's some overthinking with his game this season. The NCAA and NFL have told us he's going to be the #1 pick for three years now and that's boring, though it still tells us a ton about the prospect.

Williams will go 1.01 in the overwhelming majority of 2QB drafts. His floor is absurdly high. It's difficult to imagine him being a bust. Whether his career will be as great as he is a prospect is tough to say. Even Trevor Lawrence is very good, but not quite what his hype suggested....yet.

If you're hoping for Harrison at 1.02, I think you're in the clear. And if you aren't, I guess you'll have to settle for an all-time great QB prospect. Unfortunate.
His personality is a lot more concerning than Lawrence. His floor is lower.
There are good and great QBs whose personalities are a little polarizing. I don't think it makes his floor lower. We're not talking Manziel, Winston or something here.

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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:54 pm

All Players with (adjusted) College QBR of 94+ since 2004
Jayden Daniels
Mac Jones
Joe Burrow
Tua
Kyler Murray
Russel Wilson
Andrew Luck (93.8)

Don’t overthink it
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Fri Dec 22, 2023 9:10 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

Postby wickerkat1212 » Thu Dec 21, 2023 8:16 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:17 pm There is a chance that Maye or Daniels are better than Williams. Not a strong chance, but a chance. Williams isn't without flaws, but I still maintain there's some overthinking with his game this season. The NCAA and NFL have told us he's going to be the #1 pick for three years now and that's boring, though it still tells us a ton about the prospect.

Williams will go 1.01 in the overwhelming majority of 2QB drafts. His floor is absurdly high. It's difficult to imagine him being a bust. Whether his career will be as great as he is a prospect is tough to say. Even Trevor Lawrence is very good, but not quite what his hype suggested....yet.

If you're hoping for Harrison at 1.02, I think you're in the clear. And if you aren't, I guess you'll have to settle for an all-time great QB prospect. Unfortunate.
Awesome, thanks. Yeah, I really want Harrison, but I will take Williams if he falls. If he's somewhere between Lawrence and Mahomes I'll be okay with that. And then it's a matter of who falls to 1.06 for me. If I get Harrison&Daniels that works. If I get Willams&Nabers/Bowers (2TEP) that works too.
D3:
QB—Allen, Pickett RB—Kamara, Jacobs, ZWhite, Edwards, Ford, Warren WR—Lamb, Olave, DJM, Puka, Tillman, Marshall, Jefferson, Robinson, Tucker TE—Ferguson, Schoon, Likely, Smith, Washington, Kraft PK—Prater DEF—BAL

D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC, Hall RB—Bijan, Kamara, Conner, BENSON (R), Gainwell, Gainwell, Foreman, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin WR—Jefferson, Hill, Adams, Allen, POLK (R), CORLEY (R), COWING (R), Tillman, Woods TE—Kelce, Kmet, TJOHNSON (R), Conklin PK—Butker DEF—PIT

Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield, RATTLER (R) RB—Bijan, Kamara, Allgeier, Mostert, BRob, ESTIME (R) WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, MBrown, Lockett, Myers, COWING (R), MWASHINGTON (R) TE—Kmet, Kraft, SANDERS (R), Conklin, Hurst PK—Elliott DEF—PHI

Superflex 2:
QB: MAYE (R), Goff, Cousins, PENIX (R), Wentz, White; RB: Bijan, BRob, ZWhite, Allgeier, McLaughlin WR: HARRISON (R), DJM, Higgins, JSN, BTHOMAS (R), Downs, RMoore, Atwell, SMoore, DPJ, Devante TE: Ferguson, Kraft, Trautman, Tremble

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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Dec 21, 2023 11:20 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:48 pm
j4pac wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:29 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:17 pm There is a chance that Maye or Daniels are better than Williams. Not a strong chance, but a chance. Williams isn't without flaws, but I still maintain there's some overthinking with his game this season. The NCAA and NFL have told us he's going to be the #1 pick for three years now and that's boring, though it still tells us a ton about the prospect.

Williams will go 1.01 in the overwhelming majority of 2QB drafts. His floor is absurdly high. It's difficult to imagine him being a bust. Whether his career will be as great as he is a prospect is tough to say. Even Trevor Lawrence is very good, but not quite what his hype suggested....yet.

If you're hoping for Harrison at 1.02, I think you're in the clear. And if you aren't, I guess you'll have to settle for an all-time great QB prospect. Unfortunate.
His personality is a lot more concerning than Lawrence. His floor is lower.
There are good and great QBs whose personalities are a little polarizing. I don't think it makes his floor lower. We're not talking Manziel, Winston or something here.
That's debatable. I think it's at least a possibility it makes his floor lower. There are some who don't think he has the mental fortitude. They may be right. We don't know, but personality can absolutely make the floor lower, it happens all the time with players.
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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

Postby Bronco Billy » Fri Dec 22, 2023 7:57 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:48 pm
j4pac wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:29 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:17 pm There is a chance that Maye or Daniels are better than Williams. Not a strong chance, but a chance. Williams isn't without flaws, but I still maintain there's some overthinking with his game this season. The NCAA and NFL have told us he's going to be the #1 pick for three years now and that's boring, though it still tells us a ton about the prospect.

Williams will go 1.01 in the overwhelming majority of 2QB drafts. His floor is absurdly high. It's difficult to imagine him being a bust. Whether his career will be as great as he is a prospect is tough to say. Even Trevor Lawrence is very good, but not quite what his hype suggested....yet.

If you're hoping for Harrison at 1.02, I think you're in the clear. And if you aren't, I guess you'll have to settle for an all-time great QB prospect. Unfortunate.
His personality is a lot more concerning than Lawrence. His floor is lower.
There are good and great QBs whose personalities are a little polarizing. I don't think it makes his floor lower. We're not talking Manziel, Winston or something here.
We could be. On top of his questions on personality and mental toughness, his last 7 games have been sub-elite efforts as a whole. That’s not a bad game or two. That’s 2 months of duds against PAC12 Ds.

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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Fri Dec 22, 2023 8:26 am

wickerkat1212 wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 3:09 pm Is there anybody in here who thinks Caleb Williams will be a bust?
Is there anybody in here who thinks Maye is better than Williams?
Is there anybody in here who thinks Daniels is better than Williams?

Just curious. I have the 1.02 and want Harrison there.
Whoever gets drafted by the Bears. :lol:

Personally I'm not going to be stupid and bypass someone that goes to the wrong organization, but it is going to put a red flag on them that I would be looking to move ASAP. Luckily I have a few Bears fans that would take the bait if he were to go there.

Anyone else have any reservations if he goes to the wrong landing spot?

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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri Dec 22, 2023 8:40 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 11:20 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:48 pm
j4pac wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:29 pm

His personality is a lot more concerning than Lawrence. His floor is lower.
There are good and great QBs whose personalities are a little polarizing. I don't think it makes his floor lower. We're not talking Manziel, Winston or something here.
That's debatable. I think it's at least a possibility it makes his floor lower. There are some who don't think he has the mental fortitude. They may be right. We don't know, but personality can absolutely make the floor lower, it happens all the time with players.
I'm only concerned if it negatively impacts your:

1. Play
2. Work ethic
3. The team

There are no indications that any of the above happened. In fact, Albert Breer discussed this a few weeks ago and talked about how USC and Oklahoma both had no issues with Williams, but the concern was more rooted in the people who represent him.

If we were dealing with a Winston or Manziel type of thing, then I'd definitely be concerned.

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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri Dec 22, 2023 8:44 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 7:57 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:48 pm
j4pac wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:29 pm

His personality is a lot more concerning than Lawrence. His floor is lower.
There are good and great QBs whose personalities are a little polarizing. I don't think it makes his floor lower. We're not talking Manziel, Winston or something here.
We could be. On top of his questions on personality and mental toughness, his last 7 games have been sub-elite efforts as a whole. That’s not a bad game or two. That’s 2 months of duds against PAC12 Ds.
USC was also very mediocre this season. Their defense was bad and their offensive line regressed overall. Williams was in a position where he had to shoulder a lot more than usual and USC needed shootouts to compete.

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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

Postby Bronco Billy » Fri Dec 22, 2023 8:58 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 8:44 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 7:57 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:48 pm

There are good and great QBs whose personalities are a little polarizing. I don't think it makes his floor lower. We're not talking Manziel, Winston or something here.
We could be. On top of his questions on personality and mental toughness, his last 7 games have been sub-elite efforts as a whole. That’s not a bad game or two. That’s 2 months of duds against PAC12 Ds.
USC was also very mediocre this season. Their defense was bad and their offensive line regressed overall. Williams was in a position where he had to shoulder a lot more than usual and USC needed shootouts to compete.
Elite players don’t need excuses. They just perform.

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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri Dec 22, 2023 9:14 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 8:58 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 8:44 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 7:57 am

We could be. On top of his questions on personality and mental toughness, his last 7 games have been sub-elite efforts as a whole. That’s not a bad game or two. That’s 2 months of duds against PAC12 Ds.
USC was also very mediocre this season. Their defense was bad and their offensive line regressed overall. Williams was in a position where he had to shoulder a lot more than usual and USC needed shootouts to compete.
Elite players don’t need excuses. They just perform.
Unfortunately, it's not that simple when your overall football team regresses significantly in several key areas.

Still, he was 11th in QBR this year. It's not like he stunk. USC needed more hero ball from him to make up for what they were losing everywhere else and it just wasn't going to work against more talented and structured teams.

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Re: Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

Postby Bronco Billy » Fri Dec 22, 2023 9:39 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 9:14 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 8:58 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 8:44 am

USC was also very mediocre this season. Their defense was bad and their offensive line regressed overall. Williams was in a position where he had to shoulder a lot more than usual and USC needed shootouts to compete.
Elite players don’t need excuses. They just perform.
Unfortunately, it's not that simple when your overall football team regresses significantly in several key areas.

Still, he was 11th in QBR this year. It's not like he stunk. USC needed more hero ball from him to make up for what they were losing everywhere else and it just wasn't going to work against more talented and structured teams.
Through the last 7 games? I don’t think so. I guess that will happen when he’s hanging 5 TDs on Nevada or 6TDs on Colorado. Not so much against a team that puts even a mediocre D on the field.


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