Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[nathanq42]

A lot of my perception of Bowers is going to be dependent on draft capital and landing spot - Duh... But there is so little predictability regarding TEs coming into the league, the things that I think are important to aim for are (in no particular order):
1) Athleticism
2) Production and advanced metrics (YPRR, overall production, etc)
3) Path to targets (Only really works if the TE is a top 2 option unless youre in a wildly explosive offense (Kittle in SF who honestly hasnt been nearly as productive with the emergence of both Ayuik and Deebo, but it could also be the toll that his injuries have taken | Julian Thomas with the Broncos)
4) Coach (without an offensively creative coach youre going to have your highly touted TE wasted - Ebron, Pitts, JHow, Fant, Minn Hock, etc)

Right now it is too early to say, but in a vacuum I think it is safe to say skill wise he belongs in the T3 WR group (Coleman, Egbuka, Brian Thomas, Franklin, etc)

I'd have a hard time not taking him above the WRs listed above. He's a potential difference maker at a tough position to find difference makers and will have much higher draft capital than any of those WRs when all is said and done. There are some landing spots I'd want nothing to do with, but if I am presented with a choice of Bowers or Coleman, I'm pretty sure I know what I'm doing at this point.

Yeah no argument here, maybe he deserves to be in a T2.5 between Nabers/Odunze and the rest, maybe even call T2.5 Odunze and Bowers. Im just not terribly familiar with everyone's game as of now, other than then general consensus is that Bowers is a special TE prospect that can operate inline and out wide, and that tier of WRs is on par with most of the high end guys of the last couple of years as prospects which is exciting in its own right.

I think it is the classic higher reward beckons higher risk. You could end up with a positional edge for a decade or you could end up with just another "overdrafted" TE that never lives up to the hype/investment.

[Cameron Giles]

A lot of my perception of Bowers is going to be dependent on draft capital and landing spot - Duh... But there is so little predictability regarding TEs coming into the league, the things that I think are important to aim for are (in no particular order):
1) Athleticism
2) Production and advanced metrics (YPRR, overall production, etc)
3) Path to targets (Only really works if the TE is a top 2 option unless youre in a wildly explosive offense (Kittle in SF who honestly hasnt been nearly as productive with the emergence of both Ayuik and Deebo, but it could also be the toll that his injuries have taken | Julian Thomas with the Broncos)
4) Coach (without an offensively creative coach youre going to have your highly touted TE wasted - Ebron, Pitts, JHow, Fant, Minn Hock, etc)

Right now it is too early to say, but in a vacuum I think it is safe to say skill wise he belongs in the T3 WR group (Coleman, Egbuka, Brian Thomas, Franklin, etc)

I'd have a hard time not taking him above the WRs listed above. He's a potential difference maker at a tough position to find difference makers and will have much higher draft capital than any of those WRs when all is said and done. There are some landing spots I'd want nothing to do with, but if I am presented with a choice of Bowers or Coleman, I'm pretty sure I know what I'm doing at this point.

Yeah no argument here, maybe he deserves to be in a T2.5 between Nabers/Odunze and the rest, maybe even call T2.5 Odunze and Bowers. Im just not terribly familiar with everyone's game as of now, other than then general consensus is that Bowers is a special TE prospect that can operate inline and out wide, and that tier of WRs is on par with most of the high end guys of the last couple of years as prospects which is exciting in its own right.

I think it is the classic higher reward beckons higher risk. You could end up with a positional edge for a decade or you could end up with just another "overdrafted" TE that never lives up to the hype/investment.

On the flip side, with some of the WRs mentioned, what's the probability that they have any sort of positional advantage or are considered elite assets one day?

If the choice is Bowers vs. Thomas, Egbuka, Franklin or Coleman, it's not much of a choice. Bowers is a better football player than all of them right now and has more upside positionally. I can't lump him in with them.

I get people are afraid of a Pitts situation, but I also don't see how drafting a worse prospect and player like Egbuka is "safer".

[Sriracha]

On the flip side, with some of the WRs mentioned, what's the probability that they have any sort of positional advantage or are considered elite assets one day?

If the choice is Bowers vs. Thomas, Egbuka, Franklin or Coleman, it's not much of a choice. Bowers is a better football player than all of them right now and has more upside positionally. I can't lump him in with them.

I get people are afraid of a Pitts situation, but I also don't see how drafting a worse prospect and player like Egbuka is "safer".

So much of TE production stems from landing spot. Will the OC utilize them more as receivers or blockers? Who is he competing with for targets? Does the QB have a tendency to throw to that area of the field? (Dak, Lawrence, Lamar, etc)

If I were drafting today I would not take Bowers over Coleman or Egbuka.

Once we know his combine and landing spot he could easily pass them but that's a leap of faith I'm not willing to take on a high 1st round pick.

[Cameron Giles]

On the flip side, with some of the WRs mentioned, what's the probability that they have any sort of positional advantage or are considered elite assets one day?

If the choice is Bowers vs. Thomas, Egbuka, Franklin or Coleman, it's not much of a choice. Bowers is a better football player than all of them right now and has more upside positionally. I can't lump him in with them.

I get people are afraid of a Pitts situation, but I also don't see how drafting a worse prospect and player like Egbuka is "safer".

So much of TE production stems from landing spot. Will the OC utilize them more as receivers or blockers? Who is he competing with for targets? Does the QB have a tendency to throw to that area of the field? (Dak, Lawrence, Lamar, etc)

If I were drafting today I would not take Bowers over Coleman or Egbuka.

Once we know his combine and landing spot he could easily pass them but that's a leap of faith I'm not willing to take on a high 1st round pick.

Landing spot also influences WR production. Drake London is a clear example of that.

Brock Bowers has more career receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns than Egbuka and Coleman. I get risk management, but at some point it comes down to selecting the superior talent and player. What does someone gain from drafting Troy Franklin or Emeka Egbuka over Brock Bowers? I'd argue it's a leap of faith to pass on Bowers for them.

[BellCow]

On the flip side, with some of the WRs mentioned, what's the probability that they have any sort of positional advantage or are considered elite assets one day?

If the choice is Bowers vs. Thomas, Egbuka, Franklin or Coleman, it's not much of a choice. Bowers is a better football player than all of them right now and has more upside positionally. I can't lump him in with them.

I get people are afraid of a Pitts situation, but I also don't see how drafting a worse prospect and player like Egbuka is "safer".

So much of TE production stems from landing spot. Will the OC utilize them more as receivers or blockers? Who is he competing with for targets? Does the QB have a tendency to throw to that area of the field? (Dak, Lawrence, Lamar, etc)

If I were drafting today I would not take Bowers over Coleman or Egbuka.

Once we know his combine and landing spot he could easily pass them but that's a leap of faith I'm not willing to take on a high 1st round pick.

Landing spot also influences WR production. Drake London is a clear example of that.

Brock Bowers has more career receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns than Egbuka and Coleman. I get risk management, but at some point it comes down to selecting the superior talent and player. What does someone gain from drafting Troy Franklin or Emeka Egbuka over Brock Bowers? I'd argue it's a leap of faith to pass on Bowers for them.

Agreed. Players can always surprise but the top WRs outside of MHJ/Nabers project as WR2/3 types that can get you 12-14ppg (if they even hit).

No less risky than Bowers IMO

[Sriracha]

So much of TE production stems from landing spot. Will the OC utilize them more as receivers or blockers? Who is he competing with for targets? Does the QB have a tendency to throw to that area of the field? (Dak, Lawrence, Lamar, etc)

If I were drafting today I would not take Bowers over Coleman or Egbuka.

Once we know his combine and landing spot he could easily pass them but that's a leap of faith I'm not willing to take on a high 1st round pick.

Landing spot also influences WR production. Drake London is a clear example of that.

Brock Bowers has more career receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns than Egbuka and Coleman. I get risk management, but at some point it comes down to selecting the superior talent and player. What does someone gain from drafting Troy Franklin or Emeka Egbuka over Brock Bowers? I'd argue it's a leap of faith to pass on Bowers for them.

Agreed. Players can always surprise but the top WRs outside of MHJ/Nabers project as WR2/3 types that can get you 12-14ppg (if they even hit).

No less risky than Bowers IMO

Obviously, to a degree.

But the elite talents like DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin and Garrett Wilson still find a way to be assets.

Kyle Pitts from the same offence is a great example of talent being absolutely unuseable due to situation. Noah Fant is suffering a similar problem in SEA.

Meanwhile guys like Jake Ferguson and Dan Arnold (in JAX) were putting up strong TE1 seasons because of their situation and QB tendencies.

Talent vs situation is a fight that every position has but no offensive position is as dependent on it as TEs are.

[CGW]

Landing spot also influences WR production. Drake London is a clear example of that.

Brock Bowers has more career receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns than Egbuka and Coleman. I get risk management, but at some point it comes down to selecting the superior talent and player. What does someone gain from drafting Troy Franklin or Emeka Egbuka over Brock Bowers? I'd argue it's a leap of faith to pass on Bowers for them.

Agreed. Players can always surprise but the top WRs outside of MHJ/Nabers project as WR2/3 types that can get you 12-14ppg (if they even hit).

No less risky than Bowers IMO

Obviously, to a degree.

But the elite talents like DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin and Garrett Wilson still find a way to be assets.

Kyle Pitts from the same offence is a great example of talent being absolutely unuseable due to situation. Noah Fant is suffering a similar problem in SEA.

Meanwhile guys like Jake Ferguson and Dan Arnold (in JAX) were putting up strong TE1 seasons because of their situation and QB tendencies.

Talent vs situation is a fight that every position has but no offensive position is as dependent on it as TEs are.

Hard to deny that situation matters a ton for TEs. Hopefully, on draft day we get an ideal landing spot for Bowers and it's all a moot point.

I just have such a hard time watching Coleman and thinking, man I'd rather have this guy than an elite TE prospect. I'm not sitting here suggesting taking Pitts over Jamaar Chase (that was dumb, y'all), but drafting wart laiden tier 3 WR prospects over an elite TE prospect just because we are scared of the first round TE curse seems silly to me too. The NFL draft should be a lot of fun, as always!

[Sriracha]

Hard to deny that situation matters a ton for TEs. Hopefully, on draft day we get an ideal landing spot for Bowers and it's all a moot point.

I just have such a hard time watching Coleman and thinking, man I'd rather have this guy than an elite TE prospect. I'm not sitting here suggesting taking Pitts over Jamaar Chase (that was dumb, y'all), but drafting wart laiden tier 3 WR prospects over an elite TE prospect just because we are scared of the first round TE curse seems silly to me too. The NFL draft should be a lot of fun, as always!

Coleman has some elite traits and is the kind of big man with strong hands and wiggle that the NFL is going to covet. Most sites have him projected as a top 15 NFL draft pick.

Decent bust factor with him but his upside pushes him into a tier 2 prospect, imo.

To your point, though. Yeah, I'm probably not taking a tier 3 WR prospect over an elite TE prospect unless the landing spot is horrific or he bombs the combine; Counter intuitively, however, I do think the hit rate here is a lot closer than most people believe.

[tstafford]

On the flip side, with some of the WRs mentioned, what's the probability that they have any sort of positional advantage or are considered elite assets one day?

If the choice is Bowers vs. Thomas, Egbuka, Franklin or Coleman, it's not much of a choice. Bowers is a better football player than all of them right now and has more upside positionally. I can't lump him in with them.

I get people are afraid of a Pitts situation, but I also don't see how drafting a worse prospect and player like Egbuka is "safer".

So much of TE production stems from landing spot. Will the OC utilize them more as receivers or blockers? Who is he competing with for targets? Does the QB have a tendency to throw to that area of the field? (Dak, Lawrence, Lamar, etc)

If I were drafting today I would not take Bowers over Coleman or Egbuka.

Once we know his combine and landing spot he could easily pass them but that's a leap of faith I'm not willing to take on a high 1st round pick.

Landing spot also influences WR production. Drake London is a clear example of that.

Brock Bowers has more career receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns than Egbuka and Coleman. I get risk management, but at some point it comes down to selecting the superior talent and player. What does someone gain from drafting Troy Franklin or Emeka Egbuka over Brock Bowers? I'd argue it's a leap of faith to pass on Bowers for them.

This is right. He's a mid first round pick in non-TEP SF I suspect. There are probably six guys I'd take over him but maybe not. I think in a lot of leagues that will be the range. Higher in TEP and 1QB obviously.

[wickerkat1212]

How much does your ranking of Bowers change in a Superflex 2TEP league? I'd happily take him at 1.06 if he's there.

Harrison
Williams
Maye
Nabers
Bowers
Odunze/Daniels

I can't wait for you to pencil in picks 1-10 just for it all to change by the time the draft passes

LOL since I have the 2.02 in this 2TEP Superflex, that's probably coming soon, yes LOL. I don't have strong opinions on players outside of these six/seven, and even some of them I need to watch a lot more tape, etc. But right now I feel good about my 1.02/1.06 picks and who I might get there. This is the league where I took Bijan, JSN, and Downs with my picks this year.

[tstafford]

How much does your ranking of Bowers change in a Superflex 2TEP league? I'd happily take him at 1.06 if he's there.

Harrison
Williams
Maye
Nabers
Bowers
Odunze/Daniels

I can't wait for you to pencil in picks 1-10 just for it all to change by the time the draft passes

LOL since I have the 2.02 in this 2TEP Superflex, that's probably coming soon, yes LOL. I don't have strong opinions on players outside of these six/seven, and even some of them I need to watch a lot more tape, etc. But right now I feel good about my 1.02/1.06 picks and who I might get there. This is the league where I took Bijan, JSN, and Downs with my picks this year.

You're going to get spectacular players with the 1.02/1.06. While I understand the RB's in this draft don't look too interesting, this is a good draft for SF team building.

[nathanq42]

How much does your ranking of Bowers change in a Superflex 2TEP league? I'd happily take him at 1.06 if he's there.

Harrison
Williams
Maye
Nabers
Bowers
Odunze/Daniels

I can't wait for you to pencil in picks 1-10 just for it all to change by the time the draft passes

LOL since I have the 2.02 in this 2TEP Superflex, that's probably coming soon, yes LOL. I don't have strong opinions on players outside of these six/seven, and even some of them I need to watch a lot more tape, etc. But right now I feel good about my 1.02/1.06 picks and who I might get there. This is the league where I took Bijan, JSN, and Downs with my picks this year.

I'm in the same spot for 1QB, nabers is basically a lock at 1.02. 1.06 feels very similar to a mid first in 2017 or 2020, so much in the air and a huge cluster of guys that have their own pros and cons. Combine/draft will shuffle things and get them closer to a clear picture, but there is going to be a lot of variation between picks 1.03-1.08 with some guys hanging around the top and bottom for the most part but your 1.03 could be someone else's 1.07 this year at this point.

Very exciting spot to be, but very uncertain if you have a guy in that group you really want

[wickerkat1212]

I can't wait for you to pencil in picks 1-10 just for it all to change by the time the draft passes

LOL since I have the 2.02 in this 2TEP Superflex, that's probably coming soon, yes LOL. I don't have strong opinions on players outside of these six/seven, and even some of them I need to watch a lot more tape, etc. But right now I feel good about my 1.02/1.06 picks and who I might get there. This is the league where I took Bijan, JSN, and Downs with my picks this year.

You're going to get spectacular players with the 1.02/1.06. While I understand the RB's in this draft don't look too interesting, this is a good draft for SF team building.

Thanks, man. I just really hope the guy at 1.01 takes Caleb. This is my only shot at MHJ. Unless I can orchestrate a trade. And at 1.06 I see quite a few guys I'd be psyched to get. Beyond that, for the 2.02? OOF. Who knows. Still a good spot.

[Mike11]

Bowers is interesting in two ways. Looking at my draft I will have 1.06 in 2QB and a later first TBD. I’m not in premium and it’s not a league people trade in a lot. I’m set at QB so going someone like Daniels isn’t really an option and I already have Kincaid.

For those of us in the 1.06-1.07 range in 2QB/ Non TE prem it’ll be interesting if a receiver or RB emerges that can help buff this spot out for people set at QB and TE. Right now MHJ, Nabers and Odunze + Caleb and Maye/ Daniels feel like a clear top 6 but leaves you a bit wanting for another big time receiver so as not to “have” to go Bowers.

[tstafford]

Bowers is interesting in two ways. Looking at my draft I will have 1.06 in 2QB and a later first TBD. I’m not in premium and it’s not a league people trade in a lot. I’m set at QB so going someone like Daniels isn’t really an option and I already have Kincaid.

For those of us in the 1.06-1.07 range in 2QB/ Non TE prem it’ll be interesting if a receiver or RB emerges that can help buff this spot out for people set at QB and TE. Right now MHJ, Nabers and Odunze + Caleb and Maye/ Daniels feel like a clear top 6 but leaves you a bit wanting for another big time receiver so as not to “have” to go Bowers.

My guess is there will be ~6 WRs taken in the first round of the NFL Draft. The class is that good. While not all first round WRs hit for dynasty, they tend to be a good bet. Solid options in the middle of the first in SF for sure.