Jordan Love: Superflex talk

[Sriracha]

Interesting breakdown. On the Reed TD, he believes Watson ran the wrong route, creating that crowded tigh window throw (and as you can plainly see from the all 22, Watson wasn't scoring on that play, or really open, especially at the point of release, as there was some discussion of that the other day)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvZXXqgFCO4

Always Love JT's analysis.

Love actually talked about the play in his presser.

Watson was supposed to run a slant but it's interesting that he occupied the free defender by running the wrong route even if he did make it a more crowded throw

[Sriracha]

https://twitter.com/zachkruse2/status/1 ... 5741471029

Between Weeks 9-12, #Packers QB Jordan Love is...
3rd in EPA/play
7th in success rate
6th in yards per attempt
5th in adj. completion %
7th in CPOE
3rd in TD passes
4th in passer rating
7th in air yards
5th in PFF passing grade
3rd in big time throws
3rd in completions 20+

Small sample size but it's nice to see the numbers are aligning with the growth we're seeing on the field.

[mild]

Aaron Rodgers had 2,599 passing yards and 21 total touchdowns through his first 11 games as the starter.

Jordan Love has 2,599 passing yards and 21 total touchdowns through his first 11 games as the starter.

Quite spooky!

[YouMightDieTryin]

He's young and makes some very sporadic bone head plays, but then totally redeems himself by threading a needle. It's been a growing year for him, but he's definitely earned that 5th year. I'll admit I was wrong about jumping ship too early on him. But I'm also okay about not being on this current rollercoaster ride.

[Anteaters]

https://twitter.com/zachkruse2/status/1 ... 5741471029

Between Weeks 9-12, #Packers QB Jordan Love is...
3rd in EPA/play
7th in success rate
6th in yards per attempt
5th in adj. completion %
7th in CPOE
3rd in TD passes
4th in passer rating
7th in air yards
5th in PFF passing grade
3rd in big time throws
3rd in completions 20+

Small sample size but it's nice to see the numbers are aligning with the growth we're seeing on the field.

Part of the reason he ranked high in counting stats for that period is Love played every game during that stretch and 12 other QBs had bye weeks during that time. Sort of makes it hard to using counting stats in this comparison. Probably should use averages.

Of course, that matters less for averages like completion pct and passer rating, but the number of byes should still be noted. And, as you noted, it is a very small sample size.

Promising, but this Love believer still needs to see more, and more consistency.

[Jigga94]

https://twitter.com/zachkruse2/status/1 ... 5741471029

Between Weeks 9-12, #Packers QB Jordan Love is...
3rd in EPA/play
7th in success rate
6th in yards per attempt
5th in adj. completion %
7th in CPOE
3rd in TD passes
4th in passer rating
7th in air yards
5th in PFF passing grade
3rd in big time throws
3rd in completions 20+

Small sample size but it's nice to see the numbers are aligning with the growth we're seeing on the field.

Part of the reason he ranked high in counting stats for that period is Love played every game during that stretch and 12 other QBs had bye weeks during that time. Sort of makes it hard to using counting stats in this comparison. Probably should use averages.

Of course, that matters less for averages like completion pct and passer rating, but the number of byes should still be noted. And, as you noted, it is a very small sample size.

Promising, but this Love believer still needs to see more, and more consistency.

Most of those are averages

[hoos89]

He's young and makes some very sporadic bone head plays, but then totally redeems himself by threading a needle. It's been a growing year for him, but he's definitely earned that 5th year. I'll admit I was wrong about jumping ship too early on him. But I'm also okay about not being on this current rollercoaster ride.

Is he really any more of a roller coaster ride than all but the top handful of most consistent fantasy producers? He's only had 1 true dud week and he's a 1st year starter who just turned 25 and doesn't have any elite weapons...plenty of reason to think he's got several top 10 seasons ahead.

Most of those are averages

Yeah only 4 of 11 (TD passes, air yards, big time throws and 20+ completions) are totals.

[Jigga94]

I was doing this for Stroud, but here's how I view Love.

QBs definitely ahead of Love
Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Stroud, Herbert, Burrow, Lamar,

QBs I probably take over Love
TLaw, Kyler, Tua, Dak, Purdy

Then you are looking Love vs Richardson/Fields/Howell/Bryce/Goff/Watson. I don't see myself trading Love straight up for any aside from maybe Richardson if I want the moonshot. So he's right outside the QB1 conversation for me and I bet you could get a huge + if you were moving TLaw or Dak for Love

[Sriracha]

I was doing this for Stroud, but here's how I view Love.

QBs definitely ahead of Love
Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Stroud, Herbert, Burrow, Lamar,

QBs I probably take over Love
TLaw, Kyler, Tua, Dak, Purdy

Then you are looking Love vs Richardson/Fields/Howell/Bryce/Goff/Watson. I don't see myself trading Love straight up for any aside from maybe Richardson if I want the moonshot. So he's right outside the QB1 conversation for me and I bet you could get a huge + if you were moving TLaw or Dak for Love

Seeing how high people are on Fields and Howell I might just be low on them but I'd easily take love over all of the bolded guys.

Fields - Job security is in question.. but for fantasy purposes his upside is probably higher given his rushing floor and big time play ability.

Howell - Dude is tearing it up in fantasy but he's doing so while avoiding his WRs and while taking a ton of sacks. Usually that type of production doesn't have a ton of staying power and his job security will be on thin ice because the Commanders aren't winning a ton of games and a new regime will have no ties to him as WSH likely hits the reset button this off-season.

Bryce - Choosing him over Love is a pure pre-draft analysis play. His situation ain't getting significantly better anytime soon so at best we're looking at him as a multi year hold that hasn't shown anything in the NFL yet to make us optimistic he's even a hit at this point.

Goff - He's in a great situation and currently sits as a backend QB1 highend QB2 as he has for most of his good seasons. Doesnt run very much and isn't elite enough to crack the top 10 as a passer. Love isn't Justin Fields as a runner but he already has 221 rushing yards 11 weeks into the season which puts him in the tactical scrambler category like a young Aaron Rodgers -- which is significant. Despite playing with an extremely young receiving core and going through his ups and downs he's still ahead of Goff in all of my fantasy leagues and is significantly younger.

[moishetreats]

The adage goes that if you have two runners, one of whom has been training for a long time and the other who looks terrible as a runner -- but they both run the same time -- you always pick the raw one. They have more room to grow and are already about as good as the trained one.

QBs I probably take over Love
TLaw, Kyler, Tua, Dak, Purdy

In my leagues, Tua, Purdy, and Love are all about neck-and-neck-and-neck in terms of total points scored and points per game. Tua and Purdy have an elite cast of players around them. We know Love's. So which one would you rather have?

With Kyler, the scoring system comes into play. If it's 6 points for a TD pass, then I'd rather have Love (especially given Kyler's injury history). In 4 points per TD pass, then the rushing upside that Murray offers might be worth it.

Bottom line, the risk with Love is that he hasn't been doing it for a long time. But, in truth, that's actually the appeal.

(Of course, you might simply think he's a bad QB who's putting up numbers. That absolutely happens in the NFL -- Bortles, Trubisky in Chicago, etc. In that case, though, this whole conversation is moot since you're not taking him anywhere in the top-15 or even top-20. But, if you think he's actually good....)

[Anteaters]

Part of the reason he ranked high in counting stats for that period is Love played every game during that stretch and 12 other QBs had bye weeks during that time. Sort of makes it hard to using counting stats in this comparison. Probably should use averages.

Of course, that matters less for averages like completion pct and passer rating, but the number of byes should still be noted. And, as you noted, it is a very small sample size.

Promising, but this Love believer still needs to see more, and more consistency.

Most of those are averages

Gotcha

But a couple that directly affect fantasy scoring were counting numbers. TDs, air yards, big time throws, and number of completions +20 which all demonstrate big play ability. Those have an outsized importance IMO. Unless those were also averages and I didn't know that.

[Jigga94]

Part of the reason he ranked high in counting stats for that period is Love played every game during that stretch and 12 other QBs had bye weeks during that time. Sort of makes it hard to using counting stats in this comparison. Probably should use averages.

Of course, that matters less for averages like completion pct and passer rating, but the number of byes should still be noted. And, as you noted, it is a very small sample size.

Promising, but this Love believer still needs to see more, and more consistency.

Most of those are averages

Gotcha

But a couple that directly affect fantasy scoring were counting numbers. TDs, air yards, big time throws, and number of completions +20 which all demonstrate big play ability. Those have an outsized importance IMO. Unless those were also averages and I didn't know that.

The only counting numbers above that directly affect fantasy are the TD. For those 4 weeks, he averaged 2 per game, which would only rank behind Cousins and Dak over the course of this season so far. He's tied for 8th with Stroud and Purdy with 1.73 Pass TD per game over the full year.

Air yards and big time throws don't mean much. Him being 6th in YPA though with 8+ per attempt the past 4 weeks? That efficiency is very good. Purdy, Tua, Stroud are the only QBs averaging more for the year.

Regardless how you feel about those numbers, he is top 10 in all of them and has been very good as of late.

Speaking of fantasy points, he is 7th in QB scoring when comparing all QBs last 4 games played (byes excluded)

[Anteaters]

For those 4 weeks

That's the thing for me. "for those 4 weeks." What are his numbers for the entire season? Not as good, right?

I think Love has a chance to be a good fantasy (and real world) QB. I just need to see him do it for more than 4 games before I go all in on him. I'm on team Love, but I'm still renting right now. I haven't bought the house all the way yet.

[Jigga94]

For those 4 weeks

That's the thing for me. "for those 4 weeks." What are his numbers for the entire season? Not as good, right?

I think Love has a chance to be a good fantasy (and real world) QB. I just need to see him do it for more than 4 games before I go all in on him. I'm on team Love, but I'm still renting right now. I haven't bought the house all the way yet.

Well that's fine but you went from saying they were all just counting stats and 4 weeks vs 3, to now you need to see it for a whole year.

He's QB10 on the year as well

[Anteaters]

For those 4 weeks

That's the thing for me. "for those 4 weeks." What are his numbers for the entire season? Not as good, right?

I think Love has a chance to be a good fantasy (and real world) QB. I just need to see him do it for more than 4 games before I go all in on him. I'm on team Love, but I'm still renting right now. I haven't bought the house all the way yet.

Well that's fine but you went from saying they were all just counting stats and 4 weeks vs 3, to now you need to see it for a whole year.

He's QB10 on the year as well

I hope he keeps it up. I'm glad to see him do well.