Rookie WR Production 2023

[Bronco Billy]

Reception Perception seems like a good idea, but unfortunately they don’t chart all the games. And we also know that getting open doesn’t always equate to success. Matt Harmon has had a litany of bad calls it’s just nobody remembers them. I don’t subscribe but just based on what I see on social media he also seems to pump up every wr with a pulse, so that if they hit he can see “see I told you so!”. If they don’t hit he just blames the team or coaching staff for a couple of years until everybody forgets about them. It’s only the very obvious busts he says to avoid.

Harmon's never been a hot take guy, so he tends to give pretty even analysis. If he isn't high on someone, he'll give them grace by just mentioning they need a particular situation to succeed (Burks). But, he does stick his neck out pretty far when receivers hit certain thresholds for better or worse. Curtis Samuel and Dante Pettis are probably his worst misses recently. I don't think he's dead on Dotson or Moore just yet.

But he's been in on a lot of players before they blew up: Allen Robinson, Lockett, Diggs, Amon Ra, Aiyuk, Diontae...I could go for a while.

I think his reports are super informative and he's on the higher end of tape analysis. Obviously he can't chart every single route, because he's one person, but it still tends to be more useful and accurate than not and he has a great deal of credibility from a lot of sharp people in that community.

I've found it to be a useful part of the puzzle that I can cross check some things with. He was spot on for example on the types of routes that Tank Dell would excel at.

I like Matt Harmon’s report. Like everyone in the world (even DD) he’ll miss, but what I like most about him is that he focuses on how players win/lose in all of their routes rather than focusing on size, athleticism or college numbers. He was on target with Dell and with Reed among others.

[Cameron Giles]

I like Matt Harmon’s report. Like everyone in the world (even DD) he’ll miss, but what I like most about him is that he focuses on how players win/lose in all of their routes rather than focusing on size, athleticism or college numbers. He was on target with Dell and with Reed among others.

Yeah, if I'm remembering correctly, the rookies he liked the most in this class were: Smith-Njigba, Flowers, Reed, Downs, and Dell. He was also in on Addison, Mingo (surprisingly) and Mims as well.

He pumped up Flowers and Reed in particular a lot.

Overall, he's definitely one of the better analysts out there. Very even analysis, and when he's wrong, he's pretty good at admitting to it and pointing out through his samples what changed with the player and what he might not have seen originally.

[wickerkat1212]

I like Matt Harmon’s report. Like everyone in the world (even DD) he’ll miss, but what I like most about him is that he focuses on how players win/lose in all of their routes rather than focusing on size, athleticism or college numbers. He was on target with Dell and with Reed among others.

Yeah, if I'm remembering correctly, the rookies he liked the most in this class were: Smith-Njigba, Flowers, Reed, Downs, and Dell. He was also in on Addison, Mingo (surprisingly) and Mims as well.

He pumped up Flowers and Reed in particular a lot.

Overall, he's definitely one of the better analysts out there. Very even analysis, and when he's wrong, he's pretty good at admitting to it and pointing out through his samples what changed with the player and what he might not have seen originally.

Best way to get his analysis?

[tstafford]

I like Matt Harmon’s report. Like everyone in the world (even DD) he’ll miss, but what I like most about him is that he focuses on how players win/lose in all of their routes rather than focusing on size, athleticism or college numbers. He was on target with Dell and with Reed among others.

Yeah, if I'm remembering correctly, the rookies he liked the most in this class were: Smith-Njigba, Flowers, Reed, Downs, and Dell. He was also in on Addison, Mingo (surprisingly) and Mims as well.

He pumped up Flowers and Reed in particular a lot.

Overall, he's definitely one of the better analysts out there. Very even analysis, and when he's wrong, he's pretty good at admitting to it and pointing out through his samples what changed with the player and what he might not have seen originally.

Best way to get his analysis?

https://receptionperception.com

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Yeah, if I'm remembering correctly, the rookies he liked the most in this class were: Smith-Njigba, Flowers, Reed, Downs, and Dell. He was also in on Addison, Mingo (surprisingly) and Mims as well.

He pumped up Flowers and Reed in particular a lot.

Overall, he's definitely one of the better analysts out there. Very even analysis, and when he's wrong, he's pretty good at admitting to it and pointing out through his samples what changed with the player and what he might not have seen originally.

Best way to get his analysis?

https://receptionperception.com

So you have to pay for the full year? Gross. Not paying $100. But if anyone wants to share the past rookie numbers feel free.

[Sriracha]

I like Matt Harmon’s report. Like everyone in the world (even DD) he’ll miss, but what I like most about him is that he focuses on how players win/lose in all of their routes rather than focusing on size, athleticism or college numbers. He was on target with Dell and with Reed among others.

Yeah, if I'm remembering correctly, the rookies he liked the most in this class were: Smith-Njigba, Flowers, Reed, Downs, and Dell. He was also in on Addison, Mingo (surprisingly) and Mims as well.

He pumped up Flowers and Reed in particular a lot.

Overall, he's definitely one of the better analysts out there. Very even analysis, and when he's wrong, he's pretty good at admitting to it and pointing out through his samples what changed with the player and what he might not have seen originally.

He was in on Mingo as a 'power-slot', a role currently occupied by their #1 Thielen. Him playing out of position in year 1 might present a buy low opportunity for him, as the idea of him playing X on day 1 was never going to work out.

He also completely whiffed on Rashee Rice but to his credit he's always been quick to react when they start performing in the NFL.

So you have to pay for the full year? Gross. Not paying $100. But if anyone wants to share the past rookie numbers feel free.

To be fair, he does put out a lot of his content for free on twitter and on his podcast if you've got the time to listen to it

[mild]

As far as Douglas goes, a 2nd would definitely make me sell right now. Might be worth noting that he hardly played until week 7 which was when all the WR injuries started hitting. Since week 7 he's been averaging 53.4 ypg. Hes got a good chance to hit 47 if he can keep his average up. But I'm sure you could do this for many rookies who start slow as well. I think he gets open a little better than the open score represents as well. Might just have to be one of those eye test guys I end up holding. Him and Reed are the ones I have my eyes on the most

With the Pats now moving to bench Mac Jones permanently (Zappe and Grier have taken all of the 1st team snaps today) I think you've got to hold slightly beyond reason with Douglas.

There's as obvious a situational bump coming for him this offseason as you'll ever see with NE committing to the tank.

In all likelihood you're holding the go-to playmaking option for rookie year Drake Maye in 2024.

You might be haggling over whether you can ask a 2nd now - I think by the offseason, that'll be the going price, easily.

[frerichs5]

As far as Douglas goes, a 2nd would definitely make me sell right now. Might be worth noting that he hardly played until week 7 which was when all the WR injuries started hitting. Since week 7 he's been averaging 53.4 ypg. Hes got a good chance to hit 47 if he can keep his average up. But I'm sure you could do this for many rookies who start slow as well. I think he gets open a little better than the open score represents as well. Might just have to be one of those eye test guys I end up holding. Him and Reed are the ones I have my eyes on the most

With the Pats now moving to bench Mac Jones permanently (Zappe and Grier have taken all of the 1st team snaps today) I think you've got to hold slightly beyond reason with Douglas.

There's as obvious a situational bump coming for him this offseason as you'll ever see with NE committing to the tank.

In all likelihood you're holding the go-to playmaking option for rookie year Drake Maye in 2024.

You might be haggling over whether you can ask a 2nd now - I think by the offseason, that'll be the going price, easily.

I assume by this you don’t think they bring in some other (significant) WR? I could see them drafting someone round 2-3, or signing a free agent (Higgins, Hollywood, Evans, Ridley, Pittman). Maybe both depending on if Belicheck is gone…what offensive philosophy becomes, etc. As of now they’re projected with $76m in cap space per Spotrac.

If they do none of that I certainly agree about Douglas. But I think there’s at least a 50/50 chance there is someone new there next year that will be viewed as a better option than Douglas.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

As far as Douglas goes, a 2nd would definitely make me sell right now. Might be worth noting that he hardly played until week 7 which was when all the WR injuries started hitting. Since week 7 he's been averaging 53.4 ypg. Hes got a good chance to hit 47 if he can keep his average up. But I'm sure you could do this for many rookies who start slow as well. I think he gets open a little better than the open score represents as well. Might just have to be one of those eye test guys I end up holding. Him and Reed are the ones I have my eyes on the most

With the Pats now moving to bench Mac Jones permanently (Zappe and Grier have taken all of the 1st team snaps today) I think you've got to hold slightly beyond reason with Douglas.

There's as obvious a situational bump coming for him this offseason as you'll ever see with NE committing to the tank.

In all likelihood you're holding the go-to playmaking option for rookie year Drake Maye in 2024.

You might be haggling over whether you can ask a 2nd now - I think by the offseason, that'll be the going price, easily.

I assume by this you don’t think they bring in some other (significant) WR? I could see them drafting someone round 2-3, or signing a free agent (Higgins, Hollywood, Evans, Ridley, Pittman). Maybe both depending on if Belicheck is gone…what offensive philosophy becomes, etc. As of now they’re projected with $76m in cap space per Spotrac.

If they do none of that I certainly agree about Douglas. But I think there’s at least a 50/50 chance there is someone new there next year that will be viewed as a better option than Douglas.

There will 100% be at least 1 other option that is more highly regarded than Douglas next year. Unless it's a full on tank year.

[mild]

You might be haggling over whether you can ask a 2nd now - I think by the offseason, that'll be the going price, easily.

I assume by this you don’t think they bring in some other (significant) WR? I could see them drafting someone round 2-3, or signing a free agent (Higgins, Hollywood, Evans, Ridley, Pittman). Maybe both depending on if Belicheck is gone…what offensive philosophy becomes, etc. As of now they’re projected with $76m in cap space per Spotrac.

If they do none of that I certainly agree about Douglas. But I think there’s at least a 50/50 chance there is someone new there next year that will be viewed as a better option than Douglas.

Even if they do, think it through.

The moment that the Pats lock in the #2 pick in Week 17 (or earlier?) Douglas's price will begin to spike from speculators. Presuming that he continues to look like an advanced stats darling, the analytics crowd will be all over him in the Offseason (the superior season) - I can already see the "Offseason Sleeper acquisitions" articles now.

They may bring someone in (they should) or they may pick other positions of need (it's the Pats after all).

The point is - your sell window will open up from the moment they lock in the Drake Maye/Caleb pick til the draft itself, because you'll be able to "tell that story" on the narrative sale street.

[frerichs5]

You might be haggling over whether you can ask a 2nd now - I think by the offseason, that'll be the going price, easily.

I assume by this you don’t think they bring in some other (significant) WR? I could see them drafting someone round 2-3, or signing a free agent (Higgins, Hollywood, Evans, Ridley, Pittman). Maybe both depending on if Belicheck is gone…what offensive philosophy becomes, etc. As of now they’re projected with $76m in cap space per Spotrac.

If they do none of that I certainly agree about Douglas. But I think there’s at least a 50/50 chance there is someone new there next year that will be viewed as a better option than Douglas.

Even if they do, think it through.

The moment that the Pats lock in the #2 pick in Week 17 (or earlier?) Douglas's price will begin to spike from speculators. Presuming that he continues to look like an advanced stats darling, the analytics crowd will be all over him in the Offseason (the superior season) - I can already see the "Offseason Sleeper acquisitions" articles now.

They may bring someone in (they should) or they may pick other positions of need (it's the Pats after all).

The point is - your sell window will open up from the moment they lock in the Drake Maye/Caleb pick til the draft itself, because you'll be able to "tell that story" on the narrative sale street.

Gotcha. I follow that reasoning and don’t disagree if you move fast once the offseason starts.

I do disagree with this:
“In all likelihood you're holding the go-to playmaking option for rookie year Drake Maye in 2024.”

But I may be wrong. Haha

[Dynasty DeLorean]

- Will be interesting to see who ends up in the 67+ tier by the end of the season
- With the trade deadlines approaching, I'd strongly consider selling the highly valued assets with poor open scores. Not saying just give them away, but can you get a 1 for Wilson, can you get a 2 for Douglas, etc... I think Mingo is a hold considering his overall profile is really solid despite the poor rookie season, I don't think it's worth it to trade him away for a 3rd or something. QJ, the writing is on the wall.
- Remember though, just because a player is deemed a "sell", that doesn't mean you just give them away. It just means you are constantly looking at opportunities to sell. Maybe it's a situation change, a QB change, maybe it's a highlight on twitter during the offseason. Just keep your eyes open for selling opportunities. And remember, always try to get more shots back than you're giving. So don't try to just sell Douglas for a 2nd, try for a 2nd+3rd. Etc...
- Is JSN's situation ideal? No. Is it possible he turns it around? Yes. But there are still true believers out there (the ones that think he's ultra talented and rookie seasons are meaningless). Yes, I would recommend selling to a true believer if you can get a true believer price from them.
- The end of the year PFF Grading could reveal some "hidden gems". So still hope for some of your favorite players.
- If we're looking for hidden gems, Trey Palmer is interesting. He has the size, the juice, but none of the opportunity (blocked by "studs" mike evans and godwin). Usually i'd not reccomend to hold such an unproductive player, but maybe in this case he's a buy low or hold
.

Update for Week 12

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
0% Good
10% Bust
Puka Nacua [84] [OpenScore: 62]
Tank Dell [70] [OpenScore: 81]


57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
21% Good
29% Bust
Jordan Addison [57] [OpenScore: 51]


47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
34% Stud
41% Good
24% Bust
Josh Downs [51] [OpenScore: 66]
Zay Flowers [51] [OpenScore: 73]
Michael Wilson [48] [OpenScore: 36]
Rashee Rice [47] [OpenScore: 57]


-------^^^GOOD^^^-------------vvvBADvvv---------------------------


37-46 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
13% Stud
13% Good
74% Bust
Jayden Reed [45] [OpenScore: 51]
Demario Douglas [41] [OpenScore: 36]


27-36 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
13% Stud
8% Good
79% Bust
Jaxon Smith-Njigba [36] [OpenScore: 51]
Dontayvion Wicks [33] [OpenScore: 57]
Jonathan Mingo [28] [OpenScore: 28]
Jalin Hyatt [27] [OpenScore: 52]


Less than 27
Will have to update these hit rates...
2-10% Stud
4-24% Good or better
Marvin Mims [25]
Trey Palmer [20] [OpenScore: 48]
Quentin Johnston [17] [OpenScore: 26]
Jake Bobo [14]
Tre Tucker [14]
A.T. Perry [11]
+22 others...


---------------------------------------------------
*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample
*Minimum of 9 games played
*PFF Grade = PFF Receiving Grade
--------------------------------------------------


______________________________________



Rookie TE Report: Week 12

Looking for:
Yards per Game - 20+
Catch Percentage - 68%+
Yards per Target - 8+
Games played - 9+

These criteria may help identify future studs at the TE position. Until last year, only 11 players had qualified for this list since 1995, with most of them being either studs or promising players. Chigoziem Okonkwo became the 12th player added to this list last year.



Sam LaPorta [OpenScore: 46]
49 YPG
71% Catch Percentage
7.0 YPT

Dalton Kincaid [OpenScore: 62]
43 YPG
87% Catch Percentage
7.4 YPT

Michael Mayer [OpenScore: 52]
20 YPG
66% Catch Percentage
7.6 YPT

Luke Musgrave [OpenScore: 57]
34 YPG
73% Catch Percentage
7.6 YPT

_______________________________________

Rookie Snap Share % Week 1-12
*left early/injury

WR
Puka - 78, 86, 96, 95, 100, 96, 93, 92, 81, bye, 88, 81
Flowers- 84, 77, 93, 98, 99, 89, 72, 75, 68, 87, 98, 94
Addison- 56, 69, 71, 58, 75, 86, 74, 94, 97, 97, 95, 96
Dell - 48, 79, 61, 70, 36*, 0*, bye, 78, 85, 96, 76, 80
Wilson - 90, 43, 67, 70, 75, 88, 83, 88, 0*, 89, 0*, 0*
Mingo - 87, 98, 33*, 0*, 86, 93, bye, 99, 96, 98, 95, 92

Downs - 79, 75, 80, 73, 71, 78, 71, 80, 20*, 25*, bye, 68
JSN - 59, 56, 44, 53, bye, 72, 63, 66, 82, 62, 68, 75
Reed - 53, 56, 66, 67, 50, bye, 48, 78, 39, 51, 69, 73
Palmer- 34, 49, 72, 75, bye, 66, 64, 81, 73, 83, 72, 68
Douglas- 41, 8, 24, 33, 13, 0*, 62, 77, 83, 72, bye, 49
QJ - 27, 15, 24, 51, bye, 48, 54, 70, 83, 85, 86, 44*
Rice - 31, 18, 51, 46, 30, 49, 59, 61, 68, bye, 57, 67
Tillman - 15, 10, 15, 20, bye, 0, 0, 0, 74, 85, 88, 89

Mims - 27, 24, 24, 35, 32, 23, 31, 39, bye, 69, 56, 48
Hyatt - 36, 21, 32, 60, 46, 73, 71, 33, 59, 30*, 53, 60
Wicks - 62, 50, 66, 58, 22, bye, 22, 34, 32, 44, 33, 0*
Boutte - 69, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 38, bye, 16

TE
Laporta - 83, 82, 74, 80, 87, 83, 72, 94, bye, 80, 85, 87
Kincaid - 80, 60, 51, 52, 53, 0*, 61, 84, 90, 76, 67, 61
Mayer - 49, 40, 47, 51, 66, 81, 71, 91, 88, 88, 80, 84
Musgrave- 75, 88, 86, 25*, 69, bye, 67, 72, 83, 74, 64, 0*

Schoonmaker- 28, 36, 23, 56, 41, 27, bye, 38, 16, 36, 35, 41
Washington- 38, 48, 47, 42, 70, bye, 53, 15, 49, 51, 47, 52
Kraft - 22, 4, 13, 23, 40, bye, 50, 28, 39, 51, 42, 96

____________________________________________

[mild]

Gotcha. I follow that reasoning and don’t disagree if you move fast once the offseason starts.

I do disagree with this:
“In all likelihood you're holding the go-to playmaking option for rookie year Drake Maye in 2024.”

But I may be wrong. Haha

I don't think you'll need to move fast. I think the drumbeat will grow pretty steadily until the end of April if Douglas continues on this path. He's practically the only bright spot on the team at this point.

re. Drake (or whoever's) go-to option will be in 2024... by the time the Pats pick again (top of the 2nd round) you're likely looking at that Troy Franklin / Adonai Mitchell / Ja'Corey Brooks range of WR.

MAYBE Xavier Worthy is there for them. *maybe*

Just saying - with teams reaching higher and higher for premium WR prospects in the draft, I don't think it's a slam dunk that a roster-altering guy will be there for them in the early 2nd.

Add to that, that the Patriots don't exactly have a *stellar* record for picking the correct WR.

A raw twitchy guy like Douglas after an offseason of training could be a sneaky good bet (that a lot of owners may want to make) at the price he's likely to cost. Even if he lands as more of a #2 - the whole idea of buying into a Drake or Caleb offense is this idea that they will be able to support multiple pass catchers - just like Stroud with the Tank Dell / Nico Collins / Noah Brown king-making.

Regardless, you won't have to be convinced of it if you pursue the offseason sale. You just have to hope that one of your 11 other league-mates will be.

[blemly]

Douglas got dropped in my league around week 4/5 and I scooped him up. Happy to hold for the price of free.

[wickerkat1212]

Douglas got dropped in my league around week 4/5 and I scooped him up. Happy to hold for the price of free.

I HAD HIM and dropped him.

So open score—does an open score of 61 mean they're open 61% of the time, or something else?