Michael Pittman’s value these days - where does he rank for you?

[lukkynumber13]

PSA: if you just want to see the list of players, it’s at the end

Feels like he’s had a roller coaster of a valuation the last couple years.

Not all that valuable 3 years ago. Then really comes on strong, gains value.

Then he gets to a point summer of 2022 where he’s a consensus WR1 in dynasty for most. A tier down from the JJ & Chase crowd obviously, but right there with Waddle & Higgins.

Then last year happens, the Colts offense is a dumpster-fire, and Pittman’s value kind of plummets (even though in PPR he was buoyed by a ton of cheap receptions). Idk the cheapest that he went in deals during the 2022 season, but I’m sure an early 2nd would have gotten his owners’ attention in plenty of leagues.

Now we have this year - again, the Colts aren’t exactly an offensive machine. But they’re at least a competitive football team, on both ends of the field. He’s about the WR15 on the season depending on your league’s scoring. On a nice little run of 8+ catches each of the last 3 games.

So where do we see his value right now?

He just turned 26 last month. Plenty of tread left on his tires. In fact, he SHOULD be entering his actual prime right now, and in it for the next 3-ish seasons.

He’s a FA after this season. Not sure how likely he is to stay in Indy or leave, but he’ll get paid for sure. Not Tyreek money, but something like 4 yrs/$75M probably.

How would you rank him among the following youngish WRs, if you’re entering a startup draft right now? I have them ranked by points per game to this point (through week 11) in a fairly normal scoring platform.

Aiyuk (25, turns 26 in March) WR12 PPG
DJ Moore (26, turns 27 in April) WR13 PPG
Nico Collins (24, turns 25 in March) WR16 PPG
Pittman (just turned 26 last month) WR17 PPG
DK Metcalf (will turn 26 next month) WR22 PPG
Waddle (will turn 25 in 3 days) WR24 PPG
Dv Smith (just turned 25 a few days ago) WR28 PPG
Tee Higgins (24, turns 25 in January) WR47 PPG

[lukkynumber13]

Notable names I didn’t include for comparison, btw:

Deebo, Godwin, McLaurin, and Christian Kirk. Curious if anybody would rank any of these 4^^^ in with the group in my initial list?

[trc]

I guess he would be a tough sell for more than a mid 1st in QB1 leagues.

Most people have a difficult time spending high draft capital on fantasy WR2's.

[Anteaters]

Waddle (will turn 25 in 3 days) WR24 PPG
Aiyuk (25, turns 26 in March) WR12 PPG
..........almost like the same tier, but...............
Pittman (just turned 26 last month) WR17 PPG
DK Metcalf (will turn 26 next month) WR22 PPG

Christian Kirk (just turned 27 last week)
DJ Moore (26, turns 27 in April) WR13 PPG
Dv Smith (just turned 25 a few days ago) WR28 PPG

Nico Collins (24, turns 25 in March) WR16 PPG
Tee Higgins (24, turns 25 in January) WR47 PPG

That's my order, with mini breaks inserted. This is my order based on how productive I think these guys will be through 2026 and in the order of whom I would want to roster.

Some WRs have spike weeks and weeks of 2 points. I prefer guys like Pittman and Kirk who have the ability to be very consistent producers in PPR. I'd put DJM on that list but the entire situation in Chicago seems to be a house of cards and I don't feel comfortable rostering him over guys in more stable conditions.

Nico and Tee are clearly below the others to me for the reason I don't think either will ever be his NFL team's WR1. Without that designation by an NFL coaching staff, it's very difficult for me to be excited about almost any fantasy WR. I'd love to roster them, for sure, and if I already had them I'd be happy to hold them. But I'm not going out of my way and paying market rate to trade for them.

[Peener]

Found this tier list very difficult to do.

Aiyuk
------ tiny tier break here based on production this year but I think overall value is pretty similar to guys below -------
Pittman
D Smith (A bit biased but the guy is so so good, he's a clear WR1 if playing on almost every other team)
Metcalf
Waddle
---------
DJ Moore
Nico
---------
Higgins
Kirk

I've got Pittman at the top of that second group based on production this year. But if I was rebuilding and was trying to tier down from a top end WR, I would be much more comfortable tiering down to any of the other WR's in that tier over Pittman. He still spooks me a bit.

[Lumps]

He strikes me as a guy that people will just undervalue perpetually. I see him as relatively similar to a few names mentioned here but I doubt that is how others see it. So in my case I would happily take a plus with Pittman to swap.

He produces with trash QBs. If he leaves this off season and finds a decent QB I expect a little more than he’s done.

Aiyuk is probably more talented but that won’t matter much with all the competition for targets he has.

[MacDaddy123]

Personally, I find it very hard to value WR's like Pittman and Higgins.
WR's who will be free agents, and we have no idea what team they will be playing for in 2024 until they sign a contract.

Just so many really bad QB's in the NFL right now.

[tstafford]

Personally, I find it very hard to value WR's like Pittman and Higgins.
WR's who will be free agents, and we have no idea what team they will be playing for in 2024 until they sign a contract.

Just so many really bad QB's in the NFL right now.

Good point.

Does anyone have a good handle on IND's cap situation and whether they have another obvious candidate for the franchise tag? Asking because with their investment in AR they need Pittman badly. I'm guessing on the open market Pittman is a $20M+ per year guy. But ask the Titans what happens when you let your best WR go . . . .

[lukkynumber13]

Personally, I find it very hard to value WR's like Pittman and Higgins.
WR's who will be free agents, and we have no idea what team they will be playing for in 2024 until they sign a contract.

Just so many really bad QB's in the NFL right now.

Good point.

Does anyone have a good handle on IND's cap situation and whether they have another obvious candidate for the franchise tag? Asking because with their investment in AR they need Pittman badly. I'm guessing on the open market Pittman is a $20M+ per year guy. But ask the Titans what happens when you let your best WR go . . . .

Not a cap expert, but a diehard Colts fan

No, there’s no one to tag. If Indy wants to pay him they can sign him.

[tstafford]

Personally, I find it very hard to value WR's like Pittman and Higgins.
WR's who will be free agents, and we have no idea what team they will be playing for in 2024 until they sign a contract.

Just so many really bad QB's in the NFL right now.

Good point.

Does anyone have a good handle on IND's cap situation and whether they have another obvious candidate for the franchise tag? Asking because with their investment in AR they need Pittman badly. I'm guessing on the open market Pittman is a $20M+ per year guy. But ask the Titans what happens when you let your best WR go . . . .

Not a cap expert, but a diehard Colts fan

No, there’s no one to tag. If Indy wants to pay him they can sign him.

Then they should sign or tag him.

[TheTroll]

Good point.

Does anyone have a good handle on IND's cap situation and whether they have another obvious candidate for the franchise tag? Asking because with their investment in AR they need Pittman badly. I'm guessing on the open market Pittman is a $20M+ per year guy. But ask the Titans what happens when you let your best WR go . . . .

Not a cap expert, but a diehard Colts fan

No, there’s no one to tag. If Indy wants to pay him they can sign him.

Then they should sign or tag him.

Judging Minshew. He should be the first backup QB to get tagged. Lol

[MacDaddy123]

Good point.

Does anyone have a good handle on IND's cap situation and whether they have another obvious candidate for the franchise tag? Asking because with their investment in AR they need Pittman badly. I'm guessing on the open market Pittman is a $20M+ per year guy. But ask the Titans what happens when you let your best WR go . . . .

Not a cap expert, but a diehard Colts fan

No, there’s no one to tag. If Indy wants to pay him they can sign him.

Then they should sign or tag him.

I can't imagine them tagging him, as WR's make a LOT of money now, so average for top 5 WR position (tag value) would be very high.
Close to $25 mil/year, which is probably why you don't see teams tagging WR's.

Signing Pittman is certainly a strong possibility, though I do see many mock drafts seem to like mocking Rome Odunze to the Colts.
Having both Odunze and Pittman, 2 X's WR's on the same team would make no sense at all.

[tstafford]

Not a cap expert, but a diehard Colts fan

No, there’s no one to tag. If Indy wants to pay him they can sign him.

Then they should sign or tag him.

I can't imagine them tagging him, as WR's make a LOT of money now, so average for top 5 WR position (tag value) would be very high.
Close to $25 mil/year, which is probably why you don't see teams tagging WR's.

Signing Pittman is certainly a strong possibility, though I do see many mock drafts seem to like mocking Rome Odunze to the Colts.
Having both Odunze and Pittman, 2 X's WR's on the same team would make no sense at all.

But of course FA is before the draft.