Rookie WR Production 2023

[Orenthal Shames]

How are we valuing Rashee Rice? I can't decide if he's a hold or sell. He's looked good on limited opportunity, but the chiefs refuse to play him on a ton of snaps and it's all short stuff with YAC. PFF has him scoring really well.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

How are we valuing Rashee Rice? I can't decide if he's a hold or sell. He's looked good on limited opportunity, but the chiefs refuse to play him on a ton of snaps and it's all short stuff with YAC. PFF has him scoring really well.

Got offered a late 25 first and third (16 teamer).

If anyone wants to drop the PFF RECEIVING grades in here, feel free…

[Orenthal Shames]

Here is the top 15 graded Rookies

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-rookies-to ... ek-11-2023

2 Overall - Puka (WR1)

5 Overall - Tank (WR2)

7 Overall - Rice (WR3)

10 Overall - Douglas (WR4)

12 Overall - Downs (WR5)

13 Overall - Bobo (WR6) 🤯

[joeya2001]

Who do you guys like better long term

Michael Wilson
Or
A.T. Perry

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Happy Thanksgiving you dummies

- I'd consider trying to move the players with value that have piss poor open scores (<45). Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Mingo, Scrabble, etc...

Update for Week 11

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
0% Good
10% Bust
Puka Nacua [89] [OpenScore: 63]
Tank Dell [73] [OpenScore: 82]

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
21% Good
29% Bust
Jordan Addison [58] [OpenScore: 49]


47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
34% Stud
41% Good
24% Bust
Zay Flowers [53] [OpenScore: 73]
Josh Downs [52] [OpenScore: 68]
Michael Wilson [48] [OpenScore: 36]


-------^^^GOOD^^^-------------vvvBADvvv---------------------------


37-46 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
13% Stud
13% Good
74% Bust
Jayden Reed [46] [OpenScore: 50]
Rashee Rice [42] [OpenScore: 54]
Demario Douglas [40] [OpenScore: 33]


27-36 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
13% Stud
8% Good
79% Bust
Jaxon Smith-Njigba [36] [OpenScore: 49]
Dontayvion Wicks [33] [OpenScore: 57]

Less than 27
Will have to update these hit rates...
2-10% Stud
4-24% Good or better
Marvin Mims [25]
Jonathan Mingo [25] [OpenScore: 24]
Trey Palmer [21] [OpenScore: 46]
Jalin Hyatt [20]
Quentin Johnston [18] [OpenScore: 28]
Tre Tucker [16]
Jake Bobo [15]
A.T. Perry [12]
+22 others...


---------------------------------------------------
*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample
*Minimum of 9 games played
*PFF Grade = PFF Receiving Grade
--------------------------------------------------


______________________________________


- Tucker Kraft could be an interesting player to monitor with Musgrave out. There were a lot of indicators during the collegiate, combine, and draft process that Kraft could be a diamond in the rough.

Rookie TE Report: Week 11

Looking for:
Yards per Game - 20+
Catch Percentage - 68%+
Yards per Target - 8+
Games played - 9+

These criteria may help identify future studs at the TE position. Until last year, only 11 players had qualified for this list since 1995, with most of them being either studs or promising players. Chigoziem Okonkwo became the 12th player added to this list last year.


- These TE's going back and forth is like a heavy weight bout. It was Laporta early, then Kincaid, and now Musgrave comes out of nowhere?!? In any event, this is the TE class we've been waiting for.

Sam LaPorta [OpenScore: 43]
49 YPG
72% Catch Percentage
7.1 YPT

Dalton Kincaid [OpenScore: 60]
43 YPG
87% Catch Percentage
7.5 YPT

Michael Mayer [OpenScore: 47]
20 YPG
69% Catch Percentage
7.7 YPT

Luke Musgrave [OpenScore: 57]
34 YPG
73% Catch Percentage
7.6 YPT

_______________________________________

Rookie Snap Share % Week 1-11
*left early/injury

WR
Puka - 78, 86, 96, 95, 100, 96, 93, 92, 81, bye, 88
Flowers- 84, 77, 93, 98, 99, 89, 72, 75, 68, 87, 98
Addison- 56, 69, 71, 58, 75, 86, 74, 94, 97, 97, 95
Dell - 48, 79, 61, 70, 36*, 0*, bye, 78, 85, 96, 76
Wilson - 90, 43, 67, 70, 75, 88, 83, 88, 0*, 89, 0*
Mingo - 87, 98, 33*, 0*, 86, 93, bye, 99, 96, 98, 95

Downs - 79, 75, 80, 73, 71, 78, 71, 80, 20*, 25*, bye
JSN - 59, 56, 44, 53, bye, 72, 63, 66, 82, 62, 68
Reed - 53, 56, 66, 67, 50, bye, 48, 78, 39, 51, 69
Palmer- 34, 49, 72, 75, bye, 66, 64, 81, 73, 83, 72
Douglas- 41, 8, 24, 33, 13, 0*, 62, 77, 83, 72, bye
QJ - 27, 15, 24, 51, bye, 48, 54, 70, 83, 85, 86
Rice - 31, 18, 51, 46, 30, 49, 59, 61, 68, bye, 57
Tillman - 15, 10, 15, 20, bye, 0, 0, 0, 74, 85, 88

Mims - 27, 24, 24, 35, 32, 23, 31, 39, bye, 69, 56
Hyatt - 36, 21, 32, 60, 46, 73, 71, 33, 59, 30*, 53
Wicks - 62, 50, 66, 58, 22, bye, 22, 34, 32, 44, 33
Boutte - 69, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 38, bye

TE
Laporta - 83, 82, 74, 80, 87, 83, 72, 94, bye, 80, 85
Kincaid - 80, 60, 51, 52, 53, 0*, 61, 84, 90, 76, 67
Musgrave- 75, 88, 86, 25*, 69, bye, 67, 72, 83, 74, 64
Mayer - 49, 40, 47, 51, 66, 81, 71, 91, 88, 88, 80

Schoonmaker- 28, 36, 23, 56, 41, 27, bye, 38, 16, 36, 35
Washington- 38, 48, 47, 42, 70, bye, 53, 15, 49, 51, 47
Kraft - 22, 4, 13, 23, 40, bye, 50, 28, 39, 51, 42


Mims finally over 50%. Hopefully the targets start coming his way, but that offense is gross

____________________________________________

[Bronco Billy]

Happy Thanksgiving you dummies

wait.

- I'd consider trying to move the players with value that have piss poor open scores (<45). Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Mingo, Scrabble, etc...

If whomever is documenting this is watching Pop Douglas and says he isn’t getting open, I’d question the rest of their results. From what I’ve seen personally to date, he gets himself open plenty enough.

[TheTroll]

Happy Thanksgiving you dummies

wait.

Well he is a degenerate (self proclamed)

- I'd consider trying to move the players with value that have piss poor open scores (<45). Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Mingo, Scrabble, etc...

If whomever is documenting this is watching Pop Douglas and says he isn’t getting open, I’d question the rest of their results. From what I’ve seen personally to date, he gets himself open plenty enough.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Happy Thanksgiving you dummies

wait.

- I'd consider trying to move the players with value that have piss poor open scores (<45). Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Mingo, Scrabble, etc...

If whomever is documenting this is watching Pop Douglas and says he isn’t getting open, I’d question the rest of their results. From what I’ve seen personally to date, he gets himself open plenty enough.

It’s not like PFF where someone is watching and giving their opinion, it’s based on player tracking. Like many have said, it’s not the be all end all, but it does appear to be a significant indicator. The only rookies that went on to find success with an open score as bad as Douglas’s have been big physical receivers such as Mike Williams and Courtland Sutton. Still time left in the season, he can improve. Just reading the tea leaves and trying to see the end before we get there.

[Cameron Giles]

Happy Thanksgiving you dummies

wait.

- I'd consider trying to move the players with value that have piss poor open scores (<45). Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Mingo, Scrabble, etc...

If whomever is documenting this is watching Pop Douglas and says he isn’t getting open, I’d question the rest of their results. From what I’ve seen personally to date, he gets himself open plenty enough.

There's data going back to 2017 with mostly bad WRs in the <40 group. It's not gospel, but it's a pretty strong correlation. It doesn't mean you can't get better, but if you appear on it, especially multiple times early in your career, it's pretty significant. There's rarely any good separators with OS in the 30s.

The common themes for outliers long-term:

- Getting high volume anyway (Tyler Boyd, Kyle Pitts)
- Players who win in traffic and get high volume anyway (Mike Williams). This will show up in their catch score. Most of the outliers have catch scores in the 70s and bad OS.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Happy Thanksgiving you dummies

wait.

- I'd consider trying to move the players with value that have piss poor open scores (<45). Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Mingo, Scrabble, etc...

If whomever is documenting this is watching Pop Douglas and says he isn’t getting open, I’d question the rest of their results. From what I’ve seen personally to date, he gets himself open plenty enough.

There's data going back to 2017 with mostly bad WRs in the <40 group. It's not gospel, but it's a pretty strong correlation. It doesn't mean you can't get better, but if you appear on it, especially multiple times early in your career, it's pretty significant. There's rarely any good separators with OS in the 30s.

The common themes for outliers long-term:

- Getting high volume anyway (Tyler Boyd, Kyle Pitts)
- Players who win in traffic and get high volume anyway (Mike Williams). This will show up in their catch score. Most of the outliers have catch scores in the 70s and bad OS.

In case anyone missed it viewtopic.php?p=2229089#p2229089

[gpaok]

Some interesting observations:

1) St Brown had the same score with Jaxon Smith-Njigba (in week 11), but had to really have a killer of an ending rookie year to jump up to Zay Flowers/Michael Wilson’s group.

Yet - Opportunity, depth chart, and draft capital seem to make JSN seems like a screaming discount to me vs I agree I wouldn’t mind dumping Michael Wilson.

2) if Nacua and Dell continue at this pace they have JJ/Jamar Chase vibes level of score out of nowhere considering both were not first round targets. They might test the % of hitting long term due to lower draft capital.

Question for DD - if Pukua and Dell don’t play a game the rest of the reason does that affect their chances of hitting? I recall vaguely they cutoff was had to play 9+ games.

[Jigga94]

Some interesting observations:

1) St Brown had the same score with Jaxon Smith-Njigba (in week 11), but had to really have a killer of an ending rookie year to jump up to Zay Flowers/Michael Wilson’s group.

Yet - Opportunity, depth chart, and draft capital seem to make JSN seems like a screaming discount to me vs I agree I wouldn’t mind dumping Michael Wilson.

2) if Nacua and Dell continue at this pace they have JJ/Jamar Chase vibes level of score out of nowhere considering both were not first round targets. They might test the % of hitting long term due to lower draft capital.

Question for DD - if Pukua and Dell don’t play a game the rest of the reason does that affect their chances of hitting? I recall vaguely they cutoff was had to play 9+ games.

Dell and Puka have played 9 games so they should end up as hits on this list regardless

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Some interesting observations:

1) St Brown had the same score with Jaxon Smith-Njigba (in week 11), but had to really have a killer of an ending rookie year to jump up to Zay Flowers/Michael Wilson’s group.

Yet - Opportunity, depth chart, and draft capital seem to make JSN seems like a screaming discount to me vs I agree I wouldn’t mind dumping Michael Wilson.

2) if Nacua and Dell continue at this pace they have JJ/Jamar Chase vibes level of score out of nowhere considering both were not first round targets. They might test the % of hitting long term due to lower draft capital.

Question for DD - if Pukua and Dell don’t play a game the rest of the reason does that affect their chances of hitting? I recall vaguely they cutoff was had to play 9+ games.

Yeah the cutoff is 9 games. I haven’t researched this but my feeling is less games played increases the variance. I said after Elijah Moore’s rookie year that in theory he was the riskiest asset of the group because of his games played and how close he was to the 47ypg threshold.

[Jigga94]

Some interesting observations:

1) St Brown had the same score with Jaxon Smith-Njigba (in week 11), but had to really have a killer of an ending rookie year to jump up to Zay Flowers/Michael Wilson’s group.

Yet - Opportunity, depth chart, and draft capital seem to make JSN seems like a screaming discount to me vs I agree I wouldn’t mind dumping Michael Wilson.

2) if Nacua and Dell continue at this pace they have JJ/Jamar Chase vibes level of score out of nowhere considering both were not first round targets. They might test the % of hitting long term due to lower draft capital.

Question for DD - if Pukua and Dell don’t play a game the rest of the reason does that affect their chances of hitting? I recall vaguely they cutoff was had to play 9+ games.

Yeah the cutoff is 9 games. I haven’t researched this but my feeling is less games played increases the variance. I said after Elijah Moore’s rookie year that in theory he was the riskiest asset of the group because of his games played and how close he was to the 47ypg threshold.

When I went back and looked at 2016-2018, Dede Westbrook and Keke Coutee both popped up as false positives, only having played 7 and 6 games respectively.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Some interesting observations:

1) St Brown had the same score with Jaxon Smith-Njigba (in week 11), but had to really have a killer of an ending rookie year to jump up to Zay Flowers/Michael Wilson’s group.

Yet - Opportunity, depth chart, and draft capital seem to make JSN seems like a screaming discount to me vs I agree I wouldn’t mind dumping Michael Wilson.

2) if Nacua and Dell continue at this pace they have JJ/Jamar Chase vibes level of score out of nowhere considering both were not first round targets. They might test the % of hitting long term due to lower draft capital.

Question for DD - if Pukua and Dell don’t play a game the rest of the reason does that affect their chances of hitting? I recall vaguely they cutoff was had to play 9+ games.

Yeah the cutoff is 9 games. I haven’t researched this but my feeling is less games played increases the variance. I said after Elijah Moore’s rookie year that in theory he was the riskiest asset of the group because of his games played and how close he was to the 47ypg threshold.

When I went back and looked at 2016-2018, Dede Westbrook and Keke Coutee both popped up as false positives, only having played 7 and 6 games respectively.

Yeah, under 9 games there’s a ton of false positives. What I meant was I didn’t really study the difference between, let’s say 9-10 games played vs 15-16 games played. From just the eye test it didn’t look like much of a difference if any, but idk.