Mike Evans value in rookie picks?

[Whatevs6]

What would you pay as a contending team for Mike Evans?

[Gator Sens]

All in, a late 1st would be a good acquire price as a contender. Any 2nd seems very unlikely.

[tstafford]

I shopped him heavily in my SF league. Best I could get was a 2nd. I ended up packaging him with Kittle to get a first. I hated all of that but needed to do it as part of a full rebuild.

[TheTroll]

the issue is a true contender is likely already deep at WR... a 2nd (early) would be the best i can see unfortunately. he is worth more but....

[TheTroll]

the issue is a true contender is likely already deep at WR... a 2nd (early) would be the best i can see unfortunately. he is worth more but....

[Anteaters]

What would you pay as a contending team for Mike Evans?

I'd hope for a late 1st, know that would be highly unlikely, and be willing to accept down to a late 2nd.

[BigBawseRoss]

2nd and a young guy is what id aim for, i own him some places and have been offered him in others, you aint getting a first or shouldnt pay one. (based on my experiences and valuations)

[abloom]

Well if the option is late first or late second I think I'd have to give up the late first. Doubt the late second gets accepted. If I had an early second I'd start there.

Id be okay giving up my late first if I was a legit contender for Evans.

[Whatevs6]

the issue is a true contender is likely already deep at WR... a 2nd (early) would be the best i can see unfortunately. he is worth more but....

I do consider myself a true contender (9-1, first place, most points scored), but I'm unfortunately not deep at WR (team in sig). I've been trying to get Evans for a 2nd+ but won't budge from a 1st...

A 1st is hard for me to stomach though considering his age and how quickly those big WRs fall of the cliff fast.

[hoos89]

the issue is a true contender is likely already deep at WR... a 2nd (early) would be the best i can see unfortunately. he is worth more but....

I do consider myself a true contender (9-1, first place, most points scored), but I'm unfortunately not deep at WR (team in sig). I've been trying to get Evans for a 2nd+ but won't budge from a 1st...

A 1st is hard for me to stomach though considering his age and how quickly those big WRs fall of the cliff fast.

Do you have any evidence for big receivers falling off faster? TO, Fitz, Chris Carter all had 1k+ seasons at 34/35 and they're all 6'3". Not a ton of examples of 6'4/6'5" WRs who have been at least as good as Evans. Calvin Johnson (6'5") retired after a 1200+ yard season so we can't say he would have fallen off a sharp cliff production-wise. Brandon Marshall (6'5") had maybe his best season at 31, and then did fall off, although that could have been more on the Jets (Fitzpatrick was way, way worse in 2016 than 2015 and also missed some time) . AJ Green (6'4") fell off before 30, but that was due largely to injuries (which Evans so far hasn't really had). Keyshawn Johnson (6'4" wasn't ever really as productive as Evans but his per game production at ages 30-34 was on par with his age 28-29 production.

Evans is a low-end WR1 so far this year and I'm not sure there's a real reason to think he's going to fall off a cliff next season.

[Whatevs6]

the issue is a true contender is likely already deep at WR... a 2nd (early) would be the best i can see unfortunately. he is worth more but....

I do consider myself a true contender (9-1, first place, most points scored), but I'm unfortunately not deep at WR (team in sig). I've been trying to get Evans for a 2nd+ but won't budge from a 1st...

A 1st is hard for me to stomach though considering his age and how quickly those big WRs fall of the cliff fast.

Do you have any evidence for big receivers falling off faster? TO, Fitz, Chris Carter all had 1k+ seasons at 34/35 and they're all 6'3". Not a ton of examples of 6'4/6'5" WRs who have been at least as good as Evans. Calvin Johnson (6'5") retired after a 1200+ yard season so we can't say he would have fallen off a sharp cliff production-wise. Brandon Marshall (6'5") had maybe his best season at 31, and then did fall off, although that could have been more on the Jets (Fitzpatrick was way, way worse in 2016 than 2015 and also missed some time) . AJ Green (6'4") fell off before 30, but that was due largely to injuries (which Evans so far hasn't really had). Keyshawn Johnson (6'4" wasn't ever really as productive as Evans but his per game production at ages 30-34 was on par with his age 28-29 production.

Evans is a low-end WR1 so far this year and I'm not sure there's a real reason to think he's going to fall off a cliff next season.

While they're not all the same height and circumstances are always different, the big athletic WRs that come to mind are Dez, Demaryius, AJ Green and Julio. I think it's fair to say they were close to washed by the time they hit 30/31.

[hoos89]

Dez Bryant fell off after his age 26 season due to a major foot injury, so I don't really think he's a fair comparison. Similar with AJG - derailed by an ankle injury at age 30 (was pacing for 1200+ and 11 TDs through 9 games that season). DT is a fair example of a guy who just fell off a cliff. Julio also probably a fine example (looks like he essentially messed up his hamstring in 2020 and never really recovered). Julio and DT were 4.3x 40 guys though, whereas Evans is a 4.5x guy. I think there may be something to the idea that guys who rely more on top end speed are prone to a sharp drop off but I'm not convinced that taller WRs do. There's clearly several examples of taller guys who did just fine into their mid-30s though, and I'm sure you can find examples of shorter guys who fell off a cliff around 30/31.

At this point the main concern is whether he suffers a major injury but he's currently pacing for 81/1,392/11 so as of now he doesn't seem to have lost a step.