Rookie WR Production 2023

[SteveMaddensShoes]

Demario Douglas having a quietly good rookie campaign.

I'm disappointed I let him get away from me. Could turn out to be a sneaky good low-endWR2 producer for a long time.

Same. Had a share, dropped him. Oops.

I fortunately grabbed him early but still wonder if it’s just the best of the worst and any real wrs would send him back to the bench.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

- We've seen how studs can emerge from the rookie-ypg depths after their rookie season, sometimes due to being blocked by multiple "good or better" receivers. Trey Palmer is behind Evans and Godwin, which makes him a somewhat interesting stash. Demario Douglas is getting more hype, but Palmers "lack of opportunity" combined with a better open score just might make him the better stash? Hard to say. JSN also may qualify for this, being behind DK and Lockett.

- Kind of interesting how we have 2 similarly producing players in Tank and Addison, yet one has a terrific open score and the other has a somewhat poor open score. Hard to make heads or tails of this since it's a new metric but something to keep an eye on?



Update for Week 9

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
0% Good
10% Bust
Puka Nacua [91] [OpenScore: 59]


57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
21% Good
29% Bust
Tank Dell [64] [OpenScore: 85]
Jordan Addison [59] [OpenScore: 46]


47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
34% Stud
41% Good
24% Bust
Josh Downs [53] [OpenScore: 65]
Zay Flowers [52] [OpenScore: 67]
Michael Wilson [50] [OpenScore: 42]


-------^^^GOOD^^^-------------vvvBADvvv------------------------------


37-46 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
13% Stud
13% Good
74% Bust
Rashee Rice [42] [OpenScore: 54]
Jayden Reed [41] [OpenScore: 55]


27-36 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
13% Stud
8% Good
79% Bust
Demario Douglas [34] [OpenScore: 30]
Jaxon Smith-Njigba [34] [OpenScore: 41]
Marvin Mims [30]
Jonathan Mingo [28] [OpenScore: 33]


Less than 27
Will have to update these hit rates...
2-10% Stud
4-24% Good or better
Jalin Hyatt [23]
Dontayvion Wicks [23]
Trey Palmer [20] [OpenScore: 40]
Jake Bobo [16]
Quentin Johnston [16]
Tre Tucker [15]
+21 others...


---------------------------------------------------
*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample
*Minimum of 9 games played
*PFF Grade = PFF Receiving Grade
--------------------------------------------------


______________________________________


- A lot of interesting guys, but where is the big play ability? YPT needs to get higher!
- Mayer is kind of interesting here, because his athleticism is not as good as those above him, and yet his YPT is higher. Maybe he's doing more, with less?

Rookie TE Report: Week 9

Looking for:
Yards per Game - 20+
Catch Percentage - 68%+
Yards per Target - 8+
Games played - 9+

These criteria may help identify future studs at the TE position. Until last year, only 11 players had qualified for this list since 1995, with most of them being either studs or promising players. Chigoziem Okonkwo became the 12th player added to this list last year.

Sam LaPorta
54 YPG
72% Catch Percentage
7.4 YPT

Dalton Kincaid
42 YPG
88% Catch Percentage
7.5 YPT

Luke Musgrave
31 YPG
77% Catch Percentage
7.1 YPT

Michael Mayer
17 YPG
68% Catch Percentage
8.4 YPT

_______________________________________

Rookie Snap Share % Week 1-9
*left early/injury

WR
Puka - 78, 86, 96, 95, 100, 96, 93, 92, 81
Mingo - 87, 98, 33*, 0*, 86, 93, bye, 99, 96
Flowers- 84, 77, 93, 98, 99, 89, 72, 75, 68
Wilson - 90, 43, 67, 70, 75, 88, 83, 88, 0*
Addison- 56, 69, 71, 58, 75, 86, 74, 94, 97
Downs - 79, 75, 80, 73, 71, 78, 71, 80, 20*
Dell - 48, 79, 61, 70, 36*, 0*, bye, 78, 85

JSN - 59, 56, 44, 53, bye, 72, 63, 66, 82
Palmer- 34, 49, 72, 75, bye, 66, 64, 81, 73
Douglas- 41, 8, 24, 33, 13, 0*, 62, 77, 83
QJ - 27, 15, 24, 51, bye, 48, 54, 70, 83
Rice - 31, 18, 51, 46, 30, 49, 59, 61, 68

Reed - 53, 56, 66, 67, 50, bye, 48, 78, 39
Hyatt - 36, 21, 32, 60, 46, 73, 71, 33, 59
Mims - 27, 24, 24, 35, 32, 23, 31, 39, bye
Wicks - 62, 50, 66, 58, 22, bye, 22, 34, 32
Boutte - 69, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0


TE
Laporta - 83, 82, 74, 80, 87, 83, 72, 94, bye
Kincaid - 80, 60, 51, 52, 53, 0*, 61, 84, 90
Musgrave- 75, 88, 86, 25*, 69, bye, 67, 72, 83
Mayer - 49, 40, 47, 51, 66, 81, 71, 91, 88

Schoonmaker- 28, 36, 23, 56, 41, 27, bye, 38, 16
Washington- 38, 48, 47, 42, 70, bye, 53, 15, 49
Kraft - 22, 4, 13, 23, 40, bye, 50, 28, 39

____________________________________________

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Edit: Everything I’m referring to is open scores for a wr’s rookie season.

Went over the last few years of open scores for rookie wrs. So this is not a ton of data (I tried to at least get all the notable rookies, plus some extra... but I couldn't get them all) but it appears that 75+ is excellent, 46-74 is fine? And we get a lot of false positives there. But 45 and below is sort of a wasteland. Hard to say where to draw the line exactly, but it certainly seems around mid-upper 40s is a sort of cutoff to where you really don't want a rookie to get a score below that. Nico is doing well so far, but isn't proven by any means just yet.

The rookies currently at 45 or below (the ones that ran enough routes to get an open score)
Michael Wilson
JSN
Trey Palmer
Demario Douglas
Jonathan Mingo



2022 Rookies
Chris Olave [OpenScore: 82]
Garrett Wilson [OpenScore: 77]

Christian Watson [OpenScore: 73]
Drake London [OpenScore: 69]
Rashid Shaheed [OpenScore: 68]
Treylon Burks [OpenScore: 65]
Khalil Shakir [OpenScore: 64]
Romeo Doubs [OpenScore: 57]
Skyy Moore [OpenScore: 54]
George Pickens [OpenScore: 48]
Jahan Dotson [OpenScore: 46]

David Bell [OpenScore: 39]
Alec Pierce [OpenScore: 38]


2021 Rookies
Kadarius Toney [OpenScore: 67]
Ja'Marr Chase [OpenScore: 61]
Amon-Ra St. Brown [OpenScore: 58]
DeVonta Smith [OpenScore: 51]
Jaylen Waddle [OpenScore: 50]
Josh Palmer [OpenScore: 50]

Rashod Bateman [OpenScore: 44]
Rondale Moore [OpenScore: 36]
Nico Collins [OpenScore: 32]


2020 Rookies
Justin Jefferson [OpenScore: 78]

Chase Claypool [OpenScore: 68]
Van Jefferson [OpenScore: 62]
Tee Higgins [OpenScore: 53]
Brandon Aiyuk [OpenScore: 53]
Collin Johnson [OpenScore: 52]
Jerry Jeudy [OpenScore: 50]
CeeDee Lamb [OpenScore: 47]
Darnell Mooney [OpenScore: 47]
Michael Pittman [OpenScore: 46]

Donovan Peoples-Jones [OpenScore: 45]
Laviska Shenault [OpenScore: 43]
Henry Ruggs [OpenScore: 42]
Jalen Reagor [OpenScore: 42]
Denzel Mims [OpenScore: 39]
Gabriel Davis [OpenScore: 32]

[moishetreats]

Hypothesis: Speedsters will have a higher open score than route runners / possession receivers / guys who win at the point of attack / end-zone targets.

Thoughts?

[BabyChark23]

Are these their open scores during their rookie years or their open score this year?

[Cameron Giles]

Adding to the ESPN-538, because this one had some encouraging correlation as well. Rookies who've finished with a Top-20 overall score since tracking:

Chris Godwin (2017)
D.J. Moore (2018)
Calvin Ridley (2018)
Terry McLaurin (2019)
A.J. Brown (2019)
D.K. Metcalf (2019)
Diontae Johnson (2019)
Preston Williams (2019)
Marquise Brown (2019)
Chase Claypool (2020)
Justin Jefferson (2020)
Ja'Marr Chase (2021)
Chris Olave (2022)
Garrett Wilson (2022)
George Pickens (2022)

A very strong list, especially if your rookie had 1st round pedigree. The "weakest" hit in that regard is Marquise Brown.
---

So far in this class:

8. Tank Dell
14. Rashee Rice
18. Josh Downs

(Nacua, Flowers, and Wilson would be in the Top-25)

[Cameron Giles]

Rookies with a Top-20 Open Score since tracking:

2022: Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson
2021: N/A (Highest Mark: Elijah Moore)
2020: Justin Jefferson, Chase Claypool
2019: Terry McLaurin, Marquise Brown, Preston Williams
2018: Calvin Ridley
2017: N/A (Highest Mark: Chris Godwin)

So far in 2023: Tank Dell (3)
----

I think a lot of people should be checking on Tank Dell right now. The list of Day 1 or Day 2 WRs with a Top-20 Overall Score and a Top-20 Open Score as rookies:

Calvin Ridley
Terry McLaurin
Marquise Brown
Justin Jefferson
Chase Claypool
Chris Olave
Garrett Wilson

[Cameron Giles]

Went over the last few years of open scores for rookie wrs. So this is not a ton of data (I tried to at least get all the notable rookies, plus some extra... but I couldn't get them all) but it appears that 75+ is excellent, 46-74 is fine? And we get a lot of false positives there. But 45 and below is sort of a wasteland. Hard to say where to draw the line exactly, but it certainly seems around mid-upper 40s is a sort of cutoff to where you really don't want a rookie to get a score below that. Nico is doing well so far, but isn't proven by any means just yet.

Yep, you get it. There is a certain range where your Open Score shouldn't be a roadblock to really good fantasy production. If you're hovering around mid 40s to 50s, then in most cases you're fine. So, if we look at 2022 for example:

Mike Evans - 56
Cooper Kupp - 55
Amari Cooper - 54
Terry McLaurin - 51

And even this year:

Terry McLaurin - 45
Amari Cooper - 44

Like you said, one of the values is seeing the standouts in OS:

80+ - Ridiculous
70+ - Standout territory, likely elite performances here

And seeing potential warning signs (<40 - especially multiple appearances)

Example: If you're still holding Alec Pierce or DeVante Parker, who've both had two back-to-back seasons <40 OS, maybe it's time to ship for whatever you can get.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Are these their open scores during their rookie years or their open score this year?

Rookie year

[CGW]

Maybe I missed it, but where does one find these open scores and how they are calculated?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Maybe I missed it, but where does one find these open scores and how they are calculated?

https://espnanalytics.com/rtm/

Not sure on the exact calculations but it uses the player tracking data from the gps all players have on them during games. This might explain https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/346 ... yac-scores

For every route run, Open Score assesses the likelihood a receiver would be able to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted. The assessment takes place a moment before pass release (0.2 seconds prior), because defenders read the shoulders of the quarterback at release and break on the targeted receiver. Otherwise, actual targeted receivers would appear to be less likely to complete a catch. Unfortunately, our models can't directly know the signal-callers pass progression (the sequence of reads he makes during each play), but they are aware of the route type, depth and time after snap of the pass release. That means our models do have some sense of timing.

[jomaed]

Looks like R Rice may be a sell high........thoughts?

[SteveMaddensShoes]

Looks like R Rice may be a sell high........thoughts?

I would normally think this way but my experience is to sell said sell high players, while buyer buys obvious decent player in amazing situation and profits for years off it.

[mild]

Looks like R Rice may be a sell high........thoughts?

I think he's legitimately shown more than any other WR they've drafted in the Mahomes era.

They're asking him to do more and more "big boy" routes. Real stuff, not the manufactured BS that floats Toney / Skyy / Hardman / etc.

I don't really see any way his value doesn't continue to ascend this season in the back half of the year. There's no-one else coming to save this WR room. He's going to be the guy.

If he has a big playoffs then the offseason hype will reach peak Gabe Dave kinda levels. That's when you should consider a sell high imo. Not now.

[Anteaters]

Looks like R Rice may be a sell high........thoughts?

For me, it would depend on what the high is. Give me a late 1st for Rice and I'm doing it.

Offer me a late 2nd and I'd probably hold and see what he does. Of me a 3rd and I'm definitely holding.