Quentin Johnston: Buy-Low Opportunity, or Falling Knife?

[epsilonindi]

What are people doing about Quentin Johnston? Obviously it hasn't looked good so far, and it's clear he should never have been taken where people were taking him this spring. Are you price checking him to see how cheap he can be, or just avoiding entirely?

[StripesOfKC]

I would probably still lean towards selling but especially after yesterday I am not convinced he is a terrible player like his production would indicate so much as he is being used like Mike Williams rather than like a Deebo in a YAC focused role

I also know that rookies, when they have a solid game, often follow that up with more and can go from busts to studs in dynasty value quickly like Watson last year or Elijah Moore three years ago

That said analytically he is unlikely to hit very high production thresholds so selling for a better bet at hitting is probably the right move

I am definitely not burying him though—just saying that there are probably better options at cost for now (if your league does not like him and is not selling any of those better options I am fine holding)

Probably not buying low unless it’s obscenely low

[Anteaters]

I hate to sound like I'm giving up on him, because I'm not.

However, I think QJ is close to the point of sell for a 2nd, buy for a 3rd. At least for me. I'm giving him another couple of weeks to show he can compete on the NFL level. But if we get to week 12 and he's still putting up doughnuts, I'm past worried and into the what-can-I-get stage.

Predictive Analytics based on first year production are pretty dismal for a WR with QJ's tracking. It's gotta take a true QJ diehard to maintain a 1st round pick valuation on him.

[BabyChark23]

If you’re a believer, the QJ manager is likely willing to sell to you. For me, I’d part with my one share for a 2nd.

[tstafford]

What are people doing about Quentin Johnston? Obviously it hasn't looked good so far, and it's clear he should never have been taken where people were taking him this spring. Are you price checking him to see how cheap he can be, or just avoiding entirely?

Wasn't a player I wanted where he was going in rookie drafts. Probably should have been an early 2nd in 1QB. I price checked him in one of my leagues and the owner is holding. I can understand that - we are only eight weeks in. I'm mostly just avoiding since I have no shares and I'm not totally sure I'd pay an early '24 2nd anyway.

[CubfanAA]

I think he was definitely overvalued around rookie draft time, but if consensus is sell for a random 2nd now...I gotta think he's a buy-low. I would definitely buy anywhere I could for a random 2nd and this is coming from somebody that owns no shares of him, because I didn't want him in that 1.5 - 1.8 range he was going in rookie drafts. I had a late 1st/early 2nd grade on him at the beginning of the year and right now I'd buy for any 2nd...even one that looks set to be 2.01, but wouldn't buy for any 1st because even one that looks set to be 1.12 might end up being earlier (these are 1QB ranks not superflex).

[KCLep20]

I'd buy for a 2nd but i would understand if he isn't sold for that. When he was coming out everyone knew he was raw and needed time, that's why they drafted him with the understanding he would play 3rd or 4th fiddle behind Keenan/Mike Williams and potentially Palmer/Everett. You shouldn't have drafted him expecting productivity in 2023 and even with the injury to Mike Williams, that still shouldn't be the expectation.

At the end of the day he's a high-draft pick with great measurables that is tied to a top 10 QB for the next 4-5 years, it's hard to argue against his situation. So for a random 2nd, I'm buying at that price.

[81-]

I hated drafting him... was stoked to dump him in a deal for AJ brown... would not want him back

[Jigga94]

Feels like a falling knife but I'll catch it for a random 2nd

[Cameron Giles]

I feel like the perception on him has never been high, even with him having 1st round pedigree. He just seemed to be the easiest player to point at if you imagined someone being a whiff in this class.

That said, he looked much better last game and he is tied to Justin Herbert. It's also probable that the Chargers move on from one or both of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen in the offseason. So, he will keep getting an opportunity this season and more next year.

I'm somewhat intrigued depending on the price, but he's not someone I would be going out of my way to get.

[Jigga94]

I feel like the perception on him has never been high, even with him having 1st round pedigree. He just seemed to be the easiest player to point at if you imagined someone being a whiff in this class.

That said, he looked much better last game and he is tied to Justin Herbert. It's also probable that the Chargers move on from one or both of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen in the offseason. So, he will keep getting an opportunity this season and more next year.

I'm somewhat intrigued depending on the price, but he's not someone I would be going out of my way to get.

Right, feels like a good throw in to a deal to push it over the edge.

[Shcritters]

I sold for the 2.01 or 2.02. Watching last night my initial thought was 'oh no, he's producing right after I sold him!'... only to then hear that Palmer was out because of an injured knee. So it appears QJ is still target #4 in that offense (Allen/Ekeler/Palmer/QJ).

I never root against anyone, but with his abysmal start - even with the great situation of MWilliams being out - I was ready to move on. Having said that, can completely understand if people want to hold given his draft capital and being tied to Herbert.

[jenkins.math]

Wasn't the book on Johnston that he was super raw and had the most boom/bust potential of the top WRs in the class?

I feel like if you drafted him at his ADP and are already trying to offload then you shouldn't have drafted him in the first place. He looks exactly like the player he was described to be. I understand if you want to re-roll and can get the same value back that you paid for him, but I don't see a reason to panic sell yet.

[epsilonindi]

I ended up offering only a 2024 mid/late 2nd, and it was declined. I understand it, I just didn't feel comfortable offering more.

[wickerkat1212]

I feel like the perception on him has never been high, even with him having 1st round pedigree. He just seemed to be the easiest player to point at if you imagined someone being a whiff in this class.

That said, he looked much better last game and he is tied to Justin Herbert. It's also probable that the Chargers move on from one or both of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen in the offseason. So, he will keep getting an opportunity this season and more next year.

I'm somewhat intrigued depending on the price, but he's not someone I would be going out of my way to get.

Pretty much this. I had him as a huge boom/bust guy, as many did,